BROMIDES
In the past few days, people who either defend the Dubai port deal, or are not that concerned about it, have advanced two main arguments that need responses.
THE ‘OWNERSHIP’ BROMIDE
This line of argument is that the United Arab Emirates government-owned port management company will not operate the six ports lock stock and barrel; they are just going to take operational control and nothing else. Essentially this would mean that the only thing UAE about it is that the financial accounting profits will wind up in Dubai banks.
While that is most likely the truth of the matter, where there’s ownership, there is control. Those that make this argument are trying to say that there won’t be a nuclear bomb going off in New York City the day after the UAE-owned company takes control of the ports. And they are right.
But nobody who opposes the Dubai port deal is making that contention. If anyone is, then it is an irresponsibly fanatical thing to say, because it’s not true.
However, the deal should be opposed for reasons that are much more subtle and nuanced than that.
The UAE, like its big neighbor on the Arabian Peninsula, and like other “friendly” Arab-Muslim governments, like Pakistan, has a ruling government that is in a precarious situation. While they are and want to be pro-Western, the majority of the UAE’s population is either radical Islamist or sympathetic to radical Islam.
Therefore, the UAE, like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, has to play both ends against the middle, which means they have to throw bones to the fanatics. Otherwise, the fanatical population would rise up, and overthrow the ruling governments, which would be bad for them and us.
This is why the UAE government recognized the Taliban when it ran Afghanistan, and why it does not recognize Israel, and why Dubai-based banks were used to funnel resources necessary for 9/11. Those were “bones” that the UAE government had to throw to the fanatics to save itself.
This is why I think we haven’t apprehended Osama Bin Laden. I think we’re doing the pro-Western regime in Pakistan a favor by not doing so, because if we did, it would set the fanatics afire, and they would overthrow the existing government, and then fanatics would be in control of a nuclear weapons program.
It’s depressing in a way that the definition of a “friendly” Arab-Muslim government simply means that it’s not overtly hostile, but que sera sera.
Even though the UAE’s control over our six ports would only be on paper, I fear that would be just enough that the UAE would appease its country’s fanatics by using its control to requisition an “opening” into the USA via these ports to smuggle in people or contraband that would eventually be used by radical Islamic cells in our country in future terrorist attacks.
This does not mean that a nuke will be exploded in New York City next month; it means increased risk of a damaging but smaller-scale terrorist attack.
And these unfavorable odds are the reason why the Dubai port deal should be nullified.
THE ‘INTELLIGENCE’ BROMIDE
The “Intelligence” argument goes like this: The Bush Administration wants the UAE to control these ports, so that our secret law enforcement apparatus can gather intelligence on the UAE and its involvement with terrorism.
That argument contradicts the “Ownership” Bromide above. If the UAE’s control is just on paper, then there’s nothing to find out from their paper-only ownership.
Otherwise, the problem with that argument is the lack of non-barking dogs.
In The Hound of the Baskervilles, by Sherlock Holmes, the dog that didn’t bark was a clue that solved the crime.
The reason I don’t buy this “Machiavellian plan to gather intelligence” argument is that certain dogs ARE barking.
Both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate have permanent committees called the Intelligence Committee. Those who sit on the committees are privy to many of the intelligence secrets otherwise confined to the Executive Branch of government and the Armed Forces. Obviously, Senators and Congressmen on the Intelligence Committee are (I hope) sworn to secrecy.
The virtue in having standing committees on Intelligence in both chambers is to create a center of gravity to run legislative interference for the confidential intelligence-gathering mechanisms of the USA. In other words, the House and Senate ICs will block or accelerate certain bills that will hurt or help American national security, respectively, based on the secrets they are privy to.
If there were some grand, clever, master plan on the part of the Bush Administration to gather intelligence on the UAE, then the House and Senate IC members should know this. If that were the case, then both ICs should be blocking any legislation to block the deal, and at the same time, members of both ICs wouldn’t be against it.
However, some of the House and Senate members that have expressed opposition to the deal are people that I know are on their chamber’s IC.
Since the dogs are barking, there is no indication of a clever scheme.