2006 General Election Preview

Usual Disclaimer: The Council of Conservative Citizens is a 501-c-4 organization, and therefore, cannot endorse candidates for public office. Nothing in this post should be construed as an official endorsement for public office. Bona fide concurring or opposing opinions on the behalf of CofCC members relevant to the following subject matter are welcome; E-mail them to stlcofcc at slacc dot com. Blogmeister reserves the right to edit for content, tact, length, etc.

Before I begin my analysis, I propose that we all engage in a peaceful form of protest against the Missouri Supreme Court’s decision against the Voter Photo ID law. When you go to vote, even though you’re not required to do so, show the election judge your Photo ID.

MISSOURI PROPOSITION B (Minimum Wage Increase)

Personal Recommendation: Don’t care
Prediction: Wins handily

Analysis: The minimum wage has been proven, under normal circumstances, to be a futile way to raise living standards. The minimum wage is what economists call a “price floor.” Either it’s an “effective” price floor (i.e. above equilibrium), and it causes unemployment, or it’s an “ineffective one” (i.e. below) and it might as well not be law. The equilibrium wage these days is well above the Federal minimum of $5.15 and above the proposed increase to $6.50, so I say it really doesn’t matter how this vote turns out. Certain labor union contracts are linked to multiples of the minimum wage, so such people under those kinds of contracts would see a raise.

I support the existence of the minimum wage in practice is a hedge against a massive influx of illegal aliens.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 3 (Cigarette Tax)

Personal Recommendation: No
Prediction: Loses narrowly

Analysis: Four years ago, a 55 cent per pack tax hike (“correction,” in the phraseology of some) was narrowly rejected by Missouri voters. I don’t see how an 80 cent increase will fare any better. Otherwise, I have already stated my rationale for voting No.

I will add that the ballot language specifies that 82.5% of the funds realized by this tax increase must go to real health care spending, and the remaining 17.5% must go to smoking cessation efforts. Why then are all we hearing about on Pro-3 media buys is the business about smoking cessation and children? Just on the numbers, we should be seeing 4.71 times as many ads about the health care. This is why I think none of this would go to health care.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 2 (Stem Cells)

Personal Recommendation: No
Prediction: Wins, but not by a landslide

Analysis: They say it’s not about cloning, and that 2 would ban cloning, but if all this wonderful miraculous embryonic stem cell research is going to cure every disease, pathology and ailment known to man, as every physician in this state is saying on Pro-2 TV ads, then there must be human cloning to produce the number of fertilized embryos necessary for both research and actual treatments. The only other way is the mass ubiquitous harvesting of egg cells from fertile women, but that procedure is so painful and risky for a woman that I imagine there will be very few volunteers for such donations. Even then it wouldn’t result in the number of embryos needed to save the world.

I also think it’s deceitful for the medical establishment to be making the claim so early in the process that embryonic stem cells are our savior. I take their hyperbole in this stead to be indicative that there are some monied forces behind the curtains that stand to benefit big time from stem cell research/human cloning.

According to the Fall 2006 FRONT LINE publication, a local quarterly of the St. Louis area Christian conservative community, stem cell research, both adult and embryonic, has been occurring for about 25 years, and all the treatments that have been produced have come from adult stem cells, none from embryonic.

Simply because of the high esteem physicians are held in the eyes of the average person, I think 2 will pass. But it won’t win by the landslides that the polls say it will. One word: C-A-T-H-O-L-I-C. And to a smaller extent conservative Protestants (“religious right.”) As an aside, I notice that none of the physicians and health care professionals that are promoting Amendment 2 publicly are from Catholic or Lutheran or other hospitals with religious affiliation or heritage.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 6 (Vets’ Property)

Personal Recommendation: Yes
Prediction: Wins

Analysis: Would make real estate owned by Veterans’ Organizations tax-exempt.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 7 (Felons and Public Office)

Personal Recommendation: Yes
Prediction: Wins

Analysis: Would automatically mean impeachment for Missouri elected officials who are convicted of a felony crime while holding the office, and would yank their state pensions thereof upon conviction. It is not clear whether 7 would ban felons from seeking public office. I’m actually surprised there isn’t any complaining from the black political types.

MISSOURI U.S. SENATE

Personal Recommendation: Talent
Prediction: Whoever wins will win within 2 percentage points

Analysis: As late as Labor Day, I was ambivalent, and considered voting third party or not at all on this race. Since then, Talent has said and done enough correct things on immigration, and McCaskill has said too many different things to different constituencies, (see: Kerry, J.) that I feel somewhat comforable voting for Talent.

The ideal scenario is that Talent wins but wins by the narrowest possible non-contestable margin. That might be enough encouragement for him to resist Chamber of Commerce pressure that will surely come in 2007 to push through amnesty for illegal aliens.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR

Personal Recommendation: Don’t care
Prediction: Blagojevich wins relatively easily

Analysis: Don’t blame me. I would have voted Oberweis in the IL-GOV-R primaries if I could have. Topinka can’t win, because she’s got no media buys in southern Illinois, which she absolutely needed if she had any chance to win.

U.S. HOUSE OVERALL

Prediction and Analysis: There is so much obfuscation and uncertainty here, that I’m hard pressed to make a qualified prediction. But just throwing anything up in the air, I predict that Democrats will win enough seats to take a majority, but in the aftermath of the elections, some conservative Democrats will switch parties to give the House back to the Republicans, with some concessions from Republican leadership in the House, perhaps including a wholesale change in chamber leadership, meaning Hastert’s and Boehner’s resignation from leadership positions, perhaps also promising the success of some legislation in the realm of economic populism, bills that would otherwise be distasteful to most Republicans’ free-market ideology.

The House Republicans are the only thing standing in between us and total amnesty for illegal aliens. The irony is that, if the Democrats win the house back, it will be due to contested seats currently held by northeastern liberal (pro-amnesty) Republicans being challenged by, and losing to, genuine left-wingers.

U.S. SENATE OVERALL

Prediction and Analysis: Democrats gain a few seats, but not enough for control. I’m hoping that some of the dead weight Senate liberal Republicans, like Ohio’s Mike DeWHINE, Mr. Amnesty, get bounced by the far left.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE

Personal Recommendation: None
Prediction: Dooley

Analysis: St. Louis County is so far gone that Dooley has no credible Republican opposition. With the racial demographic trends going the way they are, he’s County Executive For Life. While most of St. Louis County’s left-wingers were opposed to the Page Avenue Extension, Buzz Westfall was for it, and many thought that his reasoning was Machiavellian, so that all those Republican voters could more easily live west of the Missouri River, abandoning St. Louis County for permanent Democrat control.

MISSOURI SUPREME COURT ET AL

Under Missouri’s goofy “non partisan” court plan, which only applies to the Missouri Supreme Court, the Missouri Courts of Appeals, and District Courts in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County (i.e. in all other places, District Court judges run partisanly), the Governor appoints the judge, and s/he comes up for retention on a due constitutional cycle.

There has never been a rejection of a judge since the non-partisan plan started. Therefore, my recommendation to retain Stephen N. Limbaugh, Jr. on the Missouri Supreme Court, and Robert H. Dierker for St. Louis City District 21 Circuit Judge, won’t matter, because they will win retention anyway.

Dierker was the one who sent PTB Orlando Fields of the College and Carter black dope gang off for a prison sentence so long that St. Louis Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce had never heard of one for so lengthy. Also Dierker has a good record on religious freedom. He is also a man of rather good humor; this blogmeister had Jury Duty in 2005 for a case held in his court.

ST. LOUIS CITY PROPOSITION P

Personal Recommendation: No
Prediction: Unsure

Analysis: If Slay’s mind is so engulfed in these kinds of delusions, then he ought to skip the sales tax altogether and finance these improvements with the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.