2008 Missouri Primaries Preview

As usual, my endorsements are only my own.  Voting day is August 5.

MISSOURI GOVERNOR, REPUBLICANS

Recommendation:  Jim Guest Sarah Steelman
Prediction:  Sarah Steelman

Analysis:  I’ll be voting for Jim Guest, because he’s a Ron Paulite with an excellent platform, but I know that this is essentially Steelman vs Hulshof.  I have already stated the problems with Hulshof, except to add that he lives in Columbia, so I think he’s too much influenced by the little red schoolhouse.  He’s saying a lot of the right things, but at the end of the day, I just don’t trust him.  I don’t know how much I can trust Sarah Steelman, but I already know I mistrust her less than Hulshof.

I think she’ll win because she’s already a statewide office holder, and he’s just a Congressman.  Ergo she started out with more statewide name rec.

UPDATE 7/29: H/T Clint Lacy:  Jim Guest isn’t on the ballot, as he backed out at the last moment.  I’m voting Steelman.

MISSOURI GOVERNOR, DEMOCRATS

Recommendation:  None
Prediction:  Nixon

Analysis:  It’s Jay vs a bunch of nobodies.

Beyond the primary, he’ll be hard to beat no matter which Republican takes him on, though I don’t think he’s as invincible as CW suggests.  Not only his links to La Raza, but the fact now that one of his recent moves as AG is to confiscate the estates that otherwise automatically transfer between husband and wife on the death of one spouse if the deceased spouse spent time in a nursing home funded by Medicaid.  It’s one thing to do this after both spouses have died, but this is the first time I have ever heard interference of an interspouse transfer — I always thought property was considered completely joint during a marriage.

What this means, is that if your husband is in a nursing home, and your insurance has run out, and Medicaid has started to pay for it, once your husband dies, the state will kick you out of your house if you own your house.  They won’t wait until both of you die and put a lien on the estate, which would be the humane thing.  And all this was Jay Nixon’s idea.

These things I think have made Nixon vulnerable.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, REPUBLICANS

Recommendation:  Arthur Hodge, Sr.
Prediction:  Kinder

Analysis:  Obviously, Kinder will win this primary.  However, the more I see of Peter Kinder, the less I like him.  With his close associations with House Speaker “Reparations” Rod Jetton, and Kinder’s own racial pandering (his campaign is running ads targeted to black voters on black radio stations in St. Louis), I just don’t feel he’s my kind of politician.  Of the two novelty candidates opposing him, I like Hodge the better.

As for the fall, I don’t think I’ll vote for either Kinder or the Democrat.  And Kinder better not bank on black voters saving his bacon, because if they’ll get incensed over anything, it’ll be the Medicaid cuts, which Kinder supported and any Democrat opposing him will say they want to reverse.  You can’t outspend a Democrat, no matter how hard you try.

ATTORNEY GENERAL, REPUBLICANS

Michael Gibbons, State Senator from the district that includes Kirkwood, is the only Republican on the ballot.  I don’t know too much about him, but will very likely vote for him in November.  The Gibbons law firm is probably the most famous one in Kirkwood.  Michael Gibbons was the deciding vote in the State Senate in 2003 for conceal-carry.

ATTORNEY GENERAL, DEMOCRATS

Recommendation:  Margaret Donnelly
Prediction:  Dunno

Analysis:  I’m recommending a Donnelly vote (she is not related to Phil Donnelly, who was Governor 45-49 and 53-57), because Chris Koster is a fink.  Koster, currently a Senator from a district south of Kansas City, recently switched parties from R to D mainly because of stem cells.  And now all he can do (even in his campaign ads) is bash Republicans.  My bet is that he’s heavily invested in some biotech startup.  Of course, if you take a Republican ticket, you wouldn’t be able to make this vote.  Margaret Donnelly is a State Rep from central St. Louis County.

Also, since Koster is from western MO, near KC, if he wins the primary, and faces off against Gibbons in November, Koster will automatically get a lot of votes from the Kansas City area, simply because he’s from there and Gibbons is from the St. Louis area.  If Margaret Donnelly wins, it’ll be St. Louisan vs St. Louisan for AG, and that will nullify the STL-KC political rivalry, and marginally help Gibbons.

SECRETARY OF STATE

As they aren’t running anyone with previous political experience, the Republicans are conceding November to the incumbent, Mrs. Robin Antolinez.

SENATE, 7TH DISTRICT, REPUBLICANS

Recommendation:  Gina Loudon
Prediction:  None

Analysis:  I’m recommending Loudon because I don’t want Jane Cunningham to win.  If you want to know why I don’t want Jane Cunningham to win, click here.  I’ll give you a hint:  It has to do with deseg.

U.S. HOUSE, 2ND DISTRICT, DEMOCRATS

Recommendation:  Bill Haas
Prediction:  None

Analysis:  Vote Haas if you take a D ballot because that loony toon will ensure another term for Todd Akin.

U.S. HOUSE, 3RD DISTRICT, REPUBLICANS

Recommendation:  Greg Zotta
Prediction:  None

Analysis:  I’m voting for him as opposed to the other three Republicans seeking to oust Russ Carnahan because Zotta e-mailed me and advertised his URL.  And he has a good platform.  ALSO:  Zotta is the “Mr. Z” that often called WGNU talk radio’s conservative shows  (including “The Right At Night.”)

ST. LOUIS CITY “COUNTY” RACES

Because St. Louis City is both a city and a county, it has both city and county elected officials.  However, the city ones run in March/April elections like all other MO cities, while the county ones run in August/November like all other county officials.  Jennifer Joyce has no Jerryl Christmas (a.k.a. Lizz Brown) to worry about this time.  Both Sheriff Jim Murphy and Treasurer Larry Williams have challengers, but I don’t think either incumbent has anything to worry about.

If Joyce would have been opposed, I would have been tempted to take a Democrat ballot just to keep her in office.  The prosecutorial power in a city like this is too important to risk it being lost to a Lizz Brownie.  But she’s unopposed, so that won’t be a problem.

U.S. HOUSE, 9TH DISTRICT, REPUBLICANS

Recommendation:  Bob Onder
Prediction:  Either Onder or Luetkemeyer

Analysis:  Hulshof is running for Governor and thus opening up the 9th.  Only Onder and Luetkemeyr have media buys, so it’ll be one of them.  Brock Olivo, former Mizzou quarterback, is also in the race, and I guess he was relying on his football reputation to put him over the top.  But his Mizzou teams were still the backwater conference doormats, so that dog won’t hunt for him.  There are two other nobodies in the race.

Both O’s and L’s media buys tout their anti-immigration stance, proving that at least some Republicans know where their bread is buttered.  The reason I’m recommeding Onder is that some conservative tax groups don’t have very kind words about L, and I’ve heard nothing bad about O.  I think O is more trustworthy.

U.S. HOUSE, 9TH DISTRICT, DEMOCRATS

Recommendation:  None
Prediction:  Steve Gaw

Analysis:  Of the four Democrats running, the only name I recognize is Steve Gaw.  He was the last Democrat Speaker of the House before the Republicans won the House in 2002, and he tried to run for a statewide office in either 2000 or 2004 but lost.  I think he’ll win because he’s the only “name” in the race.