
Will not run for reelect in ’10.
The Dems will probably coalesce around Mrs. Antolinez. But what are the Republicans gonna do? Matt Blunt is damaged goods, Peter Kinder is the only Republican statewide office holder, but he’s a racial panderer. However, he’s got the best statewide name rec, so if he wants it, he’ll get the R-nomination. I wish Todd Akin would run, but a Congressman from the St. Louis area will have a hard time getting KC votes. If a R-Congressman is going to run, it would probably be Sam Graves; JoAnn Emerson and Roy Blunt are too ensconced in the House, Blaine Luektemeyer is too new. Perhaps someone from the State House or Senate could be a dark horse.
The most intriguing possibility, especially now that someone else named Sarah is a national figure, is Missouri’s Sarah that wanted to be Governor, that being Steelman.
However, if you forced me to predict right now, it’ll be Kinder vs Mrs. Antolinez. For both, the 2010 Senate run will be “free passes,” in that the loser will remain in their existing position, both the Lt. Governor and Sec. of State are not on the ballot in 2010. Neither one would risk being shut out of public office.
Now that I think about it, perhaps this is why Peter Kinder declined to run for Governor after Matt Blunt fell on his sword — maybe he sensed Nixon’s inevitability in 2008, and Bond’s retirement in 2010.
However, with the power that the Carnahan name has in Missouri, the Republicans better get a little down and dirty, even going as low as promulgating the rumors that her “marriage” is a sham to cover up her lesbianism. Otherwise, she’ll win, even if 2010 is a Republican year nationally.
UPDATE 1/12: Contrary to what I said before, Roy Blunt is in. What is curious about him throwing his hat in the ring is that, through 2006 and 2007, there were rumors going around that, then-Gov. Matt Blunt sensing his own vulnerabilities, would engineer a three-way deal where Kit Bond would resign from the Senate, Matt would appoint Roy for Senate, then Matt would run for Roy’s U.S. House seat in 2008 instead of re-election for Governor. If Roy does indeed run, he couldn’t run for the House seat, probably meaning that Matt will run for it. So those rumors might wind up coming true, only a few years later.
Also, in a bit of surprise, Lazy Clay is going to jump in. I get the feeling that he witnessed Obama’s success both nationally and in the Democratic Presidential primary in Missouri vs HRC, and thinks he can replicate it vs a Hillary-type in Mrs. Antolinez. If he does get in, I think this will change the campaign dynamics for Mrs. Antolinez drastically. She would not only actually have to campaign for the D-primary, she’ll have to tread lightly. After all, Alan Wheat did beat Marsha Murphy in D-SEM Primary in 1994, so there’s precedent in Missouri. The other side of that coin is that John Ashcroft handed Wheat his chaff in November.