There has been a lot of internet gossip about Utah Governor Jon Huntsman making a run for the Republican nomination in ’12, which bubbled up to the surface of semi-credibility when it was mentioned on yesterday’s McLaughlin Group.
I don’t know much about him, other than he’s Mormon and the Governor of Utah, and has adopted two kids from Asia. But all I wonder is this: What of the other Mormon, Mitt Romney? I think his recent decision to sell a couple of his houses is all for PR purposes, as he saw all the flack John McCain took for owning seven houses.
Similar to how the Southern Baptists are an unofficial organizing structure for the Republican Party in the South, the Mormon Church serves that similar purpose for the GOP in the Mountain West, not just in Utah. Therefore, any Republican nominee is going to have to make nice with official Mormondom. However, it’s not enough to make a Republican nominee — Romney had it in the bag and monolithically in 2008, but McCain won the nomination. But Mormon disappointment meant that McCain’s margins of victory in Utah and Arizona weren’t as large as the usual R-over-D spread for Presidential elections, and was a factor in other western states.
I think that either Romney or Huntsman will run, but not both. Both running will mean they split the Mormon vote, thereby guaranteeing that neither wins the Republican nomination. The calculus to figure out which one runs will be this — Will the economic situation in 2012 make Romney more credible, or will it be that by 2012, Romney will be 64 years old and out of public office for six years, while Huntsman will be 52 and only months removed from being Governor of Utah. Will that factor play into people’s minds, the age and credibility thing?
UPDATE 5/16: Lo and behold. President Obama just named Gov. Huntsman, a fluent speaker of Mandarin, as Ambassador to China. What this means for his Presidential ambitions in 2012, which the WaPo admits he has, is unclear. I think President Obama thinks that a credible Huntsman knocks Romney out, and therefore knocks out the Republican that could most outperform Obama on economic issues, if the economy is still an issue in ’12. I am of the opinion that this hurts Huntsman among rank-and-file GOP voters for ’12, because a Sinophile won’t be able to get too many votes from pro-life and therefore anti-China Christian fundagelicals in the South. Either way, Mitt Romney is now yesterday’s news.
