Texas gets Rickrolled.
With virtually all the precincts counted, Rick Perry wins a majority with 51.1%, KBH 30.3%, and Debra Medina gets 18.6%. No runoff.
Let’s take a ride back about a generation.
In the year in question, an incumbent office holder is seem as weak and vulnerable. Someone within his own party, who is very well known, decides to challenge the incumbent for his own party’s nomination. The challenger started out with a big lead in the polls, but quickly fell behind and lost by margins just as big as his initial lead. One of the big reasons the incumbent was able to win and the challenger’s challenge flopped is because the incumbent had the power of the incumbency, and the challenger relied on his name and “reputation,” and wasn’t able to give himself a raison d’etre to his candidacy — he wasn’t able to articulate to his own party’s voters just why, beyond his name, he was a better choice for his party than the incumbent. He didn’t say what he wanted to do with this office. The incumbent was able to give himself a compelling reason for political existence. Plus, the challenger’s particular ideology was becoming a thing of the past.
What I just described was Ted Kennedy’s intra-party challenge to Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Change a few pronouns for gender correctness, and I also just described KBH’s primary challenge to Rick Perry for the last twelve months until last night. The analogy isn’t perfect; Rick Perry has been the Governor of Texas longer than anyone in the state’s history, and if he’s not caught in bed with a child, he’s gonna turn ten years into fourteen years. Jimmy Carter was just finishing his first and only term as President. For all its fraudulence, Perry did successfully give himself a raison d’etre, KBH tried to float on her name. Jimmy Carter didn’t give himself much of a raison d’etre, even as Kennedy, like KBH, couldn’t rationalize his existence, but actually being the sitting President has a lot of advantages. And, while you may think it’s a matter of to-may-toe, to-mah-toe, Kennedy’s brand of liberalism was going out of style in the country and even within the Democrat Party, and KBH’s apparent centrist establishmentarianism is becoming passe within the GOP.
Take this as a warning, Hillary Rodham Clinton — If you’re going to challenge Obama in 2012, you better come up with a real game plan, or hope he taps out.
Some think that yesterday’s vote vindicates George W. Bush. I don’t agree, and, as a matter of fact, I think it was a referendum against him in his own state. Both Bushes, 41 and 43, Karl Rove and Dick Armey all came out for KBH. How’d that work out for her? Rush Limbaugh relayed gossip from GOP insiders that they really don’t like Rick Perry, even though on immigration and globalism, they’re the same. KBH was actually the least open borders of the three, and the least problematic otherwise, which is why she would have gotten my vote.
As for Debra Medina, the neos and lamers on Twitter are already gloating about how the vote is a repudiation of trutherism/birtherism. Huh? She went from nobody to almost one in five Republicans in two months, so the t/b issues didn’t seem to hurt her. I tend to think that they had no effect; they neither enhanced or depressed her prospects — In other words, she would have gotten the 18.6% she did even if she didn’t come out as sort of a truther/birther, and that she did doesn’t mean she would have gotten more. What was working against her was too little time, too little money, her opposition to E-Verify and Rick Perry’s co-option. More of the first two and change the third, and we’d be talking about a Perry-Medina runoff today.
Oh, and? Ron Paul? 80%. BOO-YEAH!