I covered Prop C separately, earlier today. Now it’s time for the rest. I’ve got a bit of analysis from Kansas and Michigan, which also held primaries yesterday. (UPDATE: And Tennessee, which went on Thursday.)
As an aside, this is the last primary/general cycle in Missouri using the boundaries drawn from the 2000 Census. Therefore, this might be the last cycle where the state is divvied up into nine slices for Congressional races, as the credible gossip is still saying that MO loses a House seat with reapportionment. MO has had nine for the last three decades; 1980 was the last census that saw a reduction, then from 10 to 9.
SENATE-R: I knew that this would be easy evening for Blunt, and that I could call the night for him, when some of the very first statewide returns after the polls closed at 7 PM came from Texas County. Those boxes showed Blunt leading Purgason 52-39. Texas County is in Purgason’s State Senate district. As it turns out, the only county Purgason won was his own, Howell.
Overall, the numbers were Blunt 71%, Purgason 13%, the rest 16%. Turns out that there were seven other candidates, other than Blunt and Purgason.
AUDITOR-R: Easy win for Tom Danforth. The only counties Icet won were in Southeast MO, which is strange because he’s from West St. Louis County and held down SEN-26, which is far West STL Co, and Franklin and Warren Counties. What’s up with that?
As for the winner? That’s what happens when you can do media buys for THREE MONTHS plus, and have the sugar daddy to be able to afford it. I might have to recommend a vote for Montee in November, just to keep this thing out of public office.
US HOUSE-3-R: Easy win for Ed Martin. But I did notice that Russ Carnahan, running against token opposition in his own party’s primary, got more votes by himself than all three Republicans in that primary combined, and did so on a day when Republicans had the wind to their backs. This is why I don’t think Martin has a chance in November.
US HOUSE-4: I didn’t handicap 4 because it’s a West/Central MO district, Ike Skelton’s currently. But what floored me is that there were some 88,000 votes cast for all Republicans, while only 32,000 for Skelton and his token D opponent combined. I think 4 has the best chance of all MO Congressional districts to flip in November. If Skelton weren’t running, it would probably be guaranteed to flip. Ironic, b/c Skelton is hardly a liberal, and is very reasonable much of the time. If he is toppled, it will be at the hand of one Vicky Hartzler. Her bio is State House from KC exurbs and being a Blunt Administration munchkin.
US HOUSE-7-R: To replace Roy Blunt. Former Springfield talk radio host Billy Long won an eight-way contest, his two closest competitors are currently in the State Senate.
There was gossip that Sarah Steelman was going to move into the district (Rolla isn’t in MO-7) and run for this job. But that didn’t happen.
CITY PROP S: The school vote. Won by more than a 3-to-1 margin. Bad timing on their part, but Peter Downs’s SLPS Watch Blog came out with some news yesterday that the elected but impotent SLPS School Board opposed Prop S. It also said that the pro-S forces were selling lead abatement as a reason to pass S, when the state administrative board claimed a few years ago that lead abatement was complete. Other than that, the reason they opposed S was because the only things S promised to fix were infrastructure issues, not academic issues. (Seriously, no amount of money in the world can fix that. You can’t fix low IQ.)
CITY CIRCUIT CLERK: Shocker of the night — Mariano Favazza is out. Jane Schweitzer did indeed win. It’s a shame, because I think Favazza was the last honest person at City Hall. (Though I think he works at the Civil Courts Bldg, not City Hall). I think Slay is behind this.
ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXEC-R: Bill Corrigan won easily. He actually got more votes by himself than Charlie Dooley plus his token D-opponent. But I don’t write anything into that for the Fall.
UPDATE: P-D notices that the scrub nobody who challenged Charlie Dooley over on the D-side got a lot of support from South County townships. One theory is that the scrub nobody is from South County, but the more uncomfortable conclusion is that Dooley is unpopular in SoCo. Of course, that’s not a surprise — Dooley has never polled well in SoCo. It’s not the white people in Mehlville and Oakville who sent Charlie Dooley to Clayton, it is a combination of the increasing black population in North County, and a lot of liberal and other non-conservative whites in Central County ekeing into West County that’s Dooley’s base.
Now, with that having been said, you may ask, why do I think it’s hopeless for Ed Martin to topple Russ Carnahan, if SoCo is so hot against Dooley? Answer: Look at the Congressional district boundaries. Most of South County that is south of 270 and west of 55 isn’t in MO-3, it’s in MO-2. That was the redistricting done in 2001 to make both Todd Akin’s and (at the time) Dick Gephardt’s lives easier. The only real “conservative” parts of MO-3 are South County that is east of 55, south of what you would call Lemay, and north of the Meramec River. Basically Mehlville/Oakville.

And I must say it again, come next election cycle, it’ll all be changed again, very likely with Missouri having only eight districts.
ST. LOUIS COUNTY PROP 2: Won by almost a 3-to-1 margin. The St. Louis County Assessor will now be an elected position. In November, the whole state votes on a proposition to turn every county assessor into an elected position.
STATE SENATE
The even-numbered districts are up this year.
2-R: Scott Rupp, the incumbent, narrowly beat back a challenge from Cynthia Davis.
4-D: Joe Keaveny wins the D-nomination to serve a term in the Senate in his own right, beating back the SLPOA-endorsed Jim Long. SEN-4 is heavily black, but has not elected a black since Lazy Clay left to replace his father in Congress.
24-D: Sam Page was a few percentage points away from being Lieutenant Governor two years ago. Now, he was TLed out of his House seat, and fell way short in his attempt to topple Barbara Frazer in SEN-24-D.
22-R: Greg Zotta will challenge Ryan McKenna’s right to another Senate term in this North Jefferson County district. I want McKenna out because he ousted a really good man in the person of Bill Alter four years ago.
26-R: To replace the TLed Allen Icet. Brian Nieves wins a four-way battle.
STATE HOUSE
Nothing big to report. Bill Clinton Young, a perennial/novelty candidate in Kansas City since 2006, did his usual losing, trying this time for REP-50-D. Penny Hubbard, wife (?) of the disgraced Rodney Hubbard, won REP-58-D in St. Louis City back for the family. In REP-109-R, a far western St. Louis exurb district, the winner was named Dieckhaus. In REP-117-CST, west of Jeff City/Columbia, one Jacob Luetkemeyer was unopposed. Any relation to Congressman Blaine L. (R-9)? I doubt it, as he would be running as a Republican if he were. UPDATE 8/7: One of the two victims in that wreck out on 44 near Gray Summit on Thursday was the son of the winner of REP-111-R, near that area.
KANSAS
Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt battled each other for the Republican nomination to replace Sen. Samnesty Brownback, who is making the lateral move to Governor. Moran eked out the win, mainly because of his almost wipeout margins over Tiahrt in the counties that Moran currently represents in KS-1, the largest Congressional district in Kansas, which encompasses about the western two-thirds of the state. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt, while Jim DeMint was for Moran. I think I might have liked Tiahrt better marginally. NumbersUSA gives Tiahrt a lifetime A-, (and he has their Blue Ribbon designation for simultaneously sponsoring all five major immigration restriction bills), and Moran a lifetime B, and sponsors four of those five bills, but that might not be that useful, b/c they give Samnesty Brownback a lifetime C, and he’s as big of an amnesty supporter as they come in the GOP. More, Tiahrt is the author of the Tiahrt Amendment, which protects the privacy of gun owners by limiting the flow of background check and gun trace data collected by the BATFE.
Kris Kobach, who helped write Arizona SB 1070, won a three-way race for Secretary of State-GOP with more than half the vote, whilst having almost no money in the bank. He is currently on leave as a law prof from UMKC, meaning that the next Kansas SoS drew his last paycheck from a Missouri public institution. Irony of all ironies…
MICHIGAN
WTF happened to Mike Cox? It wasn’t so long ago that Cox, the only Michigan politician with enough balls to oppose affirmative action, was a shoo-in for the nomination and for Governor.
Rick Snyder, who won GOV-R last night, over western Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra in 2nd and Cox in 3rd, is a former CEO of the computer company that shipped its finished product in cow boxes. IOW, he’s a Whitman/Fiorina type. And where there is management of a CS/IT company, there is outsourcing and H-1B. Read it and it and weep. You stupid Michigan Republican voters just pissed on your own legs and didn’t even give yourselves the self-respect of calling it rain. The Democrat nominee, BTW, is the current Mayor of Lansing, so he’s probably going to have a really short move to his new job.
Kwame Kilpatrick’s mother was bounced out of her own U.S. House seat in her own party’s primary.
TENNESSEE
The Volunteer State held is primaries on Thursday, so I’ll throw my analysis in right here instead of creating a new post.
For Governor-R, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam handily defeated Congressman Zach Wamp (TN-3, Chattanooga, Oak Ridge) and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey. Haslam is an heir to the Pilot Gas Station/Truck Stop fortune, and therefore was able to buy this election. But he had to hide his liberalism along the way — Haslam was a member of Mayors Against (“Illegal”) Guns, and had to quit it to join the NRA when he wanted to go for greener fields. Should he win in November, (and the CW is that the Republican Primary was essentially the election — I’m hearing that phrase repeated a lot this year), he will become the second straight big city mayor to become Governor — the TLed Phil Bredesen was Mayor of Nashville previously. I would have voted Wamp, (and not just as a tribute to all those sysadmins who run the Windows-Apache-MySQL-Perl stack), because he was the most conservative and legitimate of the three. Now, here’s hoping that those sysadmins who runs Windows-IIS-MySQL-Perl can find their guy.
What jumps out at me is that all three legitimate contenders for GOV-R were from East Tennessee. Haslam from Knoxville, Wamp from Chattanooga and Ramsey from Blountville. Then again, Tennessee’s politics seem to be disproportionately dominated by its eastern third historically speaking — Two big names that anyone versed in American political history can name, that represented Tennessee in the U.S. Senate AND had prominent ambitions beyond, one being Estes Kefauver, (legitimately won the 1952 Democrat nomination for President through primary votes, but the party bosses took it away from him and handed it Chicago-based Adlai Stevenson, to punish Kefauver for his anti-corruption record; four years later, Kefauver was Stevenson’s running mate, only because Stevenson let the convention choose his running mate — the convention went through a couple of ballots to decide on Kefauver, with John F. Kennedy leading the voting at one point), and the other being Howard Baker (became Senate Majority Leader after the 1980 landslide on Reagan’s coattails), were from East Tennessee. And lest we forget, one Dr. Samuel Todd Francis (RIP) was from Chattanooga.
On the other side of the state, Steve Cohen must have something going on. Either that, or he’s adequately liberal for most voters in Memphis-dominated TN-9, most of whom are black, such that they feel no need to turn away the incumbent for even a black with credible chops.