* You’re up by 10, ball’s on your own 20, eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. Your RB is 4-5 ypc guy. First and ten.
If you’re the OC, what sort of plays are you gonna call? That’s right, either hand off to the RB, or short yardage high-percentage pass plays. And DON’T fumble the ball or take it out of bounds; keep that clock running.
This is the situation that Congressional Republicans and those who want to be are in. Predictably, their playbook shows that these are the sorts of plays they’ll run. Safe, predictable, mostly agreeable, but not too exciting. Just run the clock down for the win. Pass/Fail, por favor.
There are some who think that even this predictable playbook is risky, because now it gives Democrats precise agenda items to pick apart and bash, and they’ll be able to do media buys to targeted demos who will be told they’d be specifically hurt under a Republican-run Congress. Maybe so, but what more than cancels that out for Team GOP is that it means they have given themselves a raison d’etre, a specific set of things they’re for — They can’t be criticized anymore for merely being against Obama/Pelosi/Reid. They’ve given voters a reason to vote FOR them instead of merely reacting to Obama/Dems, and should they win, they’ll have a mandate to follow through.
Page 39 is where you read the most about immigration. I hope that de-funding the DOJ lawsuits against AZ is planned, that they’re not stating it because this is not the kind of document where specifics are expected.
* Sean Bialet is only 10% behind Barney Frank, and has Frank under 50%, in MA-4. 48-38 to be precise.
I can understand if you don’t realize how big this news is, and you’ll probably think Barney Frank has an insurmountable lead. Which he just might.
BUT…2008: Frank 68%, his Republican challenger 25%. 2006: Unopposed. 2004: Frank 78%, his Republican challenger 22%.
Let’s say Frank wins by 10% this year. He won by 43% two years ago. So he would drop from a 43% margin of victory in 2008 to only a 10% margin this year. Extrapolate that swing nationwide, (which might be a non sequitur, because not all Democrat members of Congress are so closely linked to the financial crisis as Frank, and not all Republicans are trying has hard as Bialet), and Republican gains would be monumental. In the neighborhood of 100 House seats flipped and all 12 Senate seats that the statgeeks think are at least remotely flippable from D to R.
* Share and share alike: In 2000, George W. Bush barely won the Presidential election. But on that same night, Democrats were able to flip five Senate seats, drawing down the previous 55-45 Republican majority to an even 50-50. With Dick Cheney coming in as VP, and by definition, being the President of the Senate, the Republicans still ran the Senate, because Cheney could cast the deciding vote in leadership races. But “out of fairness,” Tom Daschle et al. said, there ought to be a “power sharing” agreement where there are at least co-equal R/D chairmen of Senate committees, while Trent Lott would still be M/L. Which they got.
That P/S agreement was in place for a few months, until Jumpin’ Jim Jeffords did his thing, handing full control to the Democrats. Republicans flipped enough seats in 2002 to get it back, more in 2004 to get back to their high-water mark of 55, then lost a bunch in 2006 and a bigger bunch in 2008 to be down to 40. Scott Brown made 41.
Now, what if the GOP can flip exactly nine seats in 40 days? You’ve got 50-50, but with Biden as VP and President of the Senate, you’ve got the mirror opposite situation of January 20, 2001. (From January 3-19, 2001, after the new Senators were was sworn in to make 50-50, but before Bush/Cheney were inaugurated, Al Gore was still VP, meaning Daschle was Majority Leader for those days.) Will the GOP be smart enough to remember that power sharing agreement? If they are, and the exact same P/S is dug up, it would mean that Chuck Schumer is Majority Leader (assume Reid loses re-election), but all the committee chairs, those precious committee chairs that we just HAD to tolerate Mike Castle in DE b/c the GOP needed back, would be co-chaired by Republicans. So in order to get a modicum of power, at least in their precious Senate committees, the GOP only needs nine flips, not ten.
There is a part of me that HOPES they flip exactly nine seats, just to see if the Stupid Party remembers recent history, and if the Democrats are just as gracious as the Senate Goppers were ten years ago.
* More bad news for Obama: His kook left base is less than enthusiastic. A leftie staying home and not voting Democrat is in essence a half a vote for a Republican.
* NRA endorses Manchin (D) over Raese (R) in the special election to take Byrd’s place in the Senate from WV. This does not surprise me — Like I have said on this medium many times before, the NRA is not a political organization, it’s a trade organization that engages in politics.
FTR, whoever wins this seat gets seated right away, because it’s to take Byrd’s place. And it’s neck-and-neck in the polls — A Raese win would be huge because it means that there would be at least one halfway decent Republican being seated right away to filibuster any lame duck session crap. Then again, there might not be a lame duck session if rumors about Congress adjourning a week from today turn out to be true.
* Speaking of someone who will be seated right away, that is either Chris Coons or Christine O’Donnell, more dirt on Coons: He hearts anti-white bigot Cornel West.
* Shock poll from NYS: The “nobody” challenging Kirsten Gillibrand is essentially tied with her. “Nobody” in this case is former Congressman Joe DioGuardi. The same poll shows Cuomo up by 9 and Schumer up by 21.
* Great shot. But in NEW MEXICO? I didn’t know the mosque issue was big there.