2010 General Election in Review

As the great philosopher Jaggerichards once said, you can’t always get what you want.  But if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need.

Sure, I would have loved for some of these Senate races to go our way.  And sure, I would have loved to see the Republicans flip 100 House seats.  But what we really needed at a bare minimum was 39 House flips, and that plus a little more, we got.

In losing around 65 House seats when all is said and counted, Democrats will have lost about half the Congressional land mass they controlled before now, and shed around 430 years of Congressional experience in the House alone.  Also, the Democrats will have under 200 House members for the first time since most WWII veterans were still young men — Not even the Red Wave of 1994 led to that.  Taking 2006 and 2008′s blue waves in combination, Democrats won 52 seats, so the Republicans are back to where they were before 2006 and then some.

However, I said after 2006′s blue wave that we were in the beginning of a volatile period, where one or both chambers of Congress would switch hands very quickly, mainly because of the shaky economy.  (Even in 2006, I knew the economy wasn’t that good.)  Therefore, I can easily see Republicans losing the House in 2012 if there’s a second round of Obamamania, or in 2014 if a Republican wins the White House and then proceeds to fuck shit up.  It is similar to the Post-WWII period — Republicans and Democrats went back and forth several times in both the House and Senate between 1946 and 1954.  What happened in 1954 is that by then, we were out of Korea, and the economy started shooting upward almost on a permanent basis — The Democrats were sitting in chairs when the music stopped, so they were able to sit in those chairs for a long time.  At some point, the music will stop, and it’s all a matter of who is sitting down when it does.  My prediction is that it will probably be House Republicans and Senate Democrats, mainly because so many Republican Governors and State Legislatures have control over House redistricting, and the racial demographic trends of various crucial states (one word:  Hispanic) favors the Democrats in statewide Senate elections.

The generic House numbers last Tuesday were 52.2% R and 44.6% D, and the generic Senate numbers were 49.7% R and 44.8% D.  So while the Democrats had about the same number in both House and Senate elections on a generic national basis, the Republican Senate candidates did 2.5% worse than their House counterparts, for various reasons.  However, the main reason Republicans could not totally turn the Senate is because their five-point generic win was largely eaten up defending popular Republican incumbents in deep red states, defending the 2004 Senate gains they made riding on Bush’s coattails.  However, since you need 60 votes to get anything done in the Senate, the six seats they did gain are fine by me, especially since it means that Snowe, Collins and Grahamnesty don’t matter as much now as they did before.

Just so I can’t hide anything, here is my local and national preview, to compare my prognostications with the actual results.

Onward and upward.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR & U.S. SENATE

Oh man, these hurt.  And they hurt a lot.

I thought Bill Brady would win and Mark Kirk would lose.  Instead, it turned out to be just the opposite.

Both Brady and Kirk carried 99 of Illinois’s 102 counties.  The only three counties Pat Quinn and AlexiG carried were Cook (duh), St. Clair (East St. Louis, Belleville), and Alexander (Cairo).  The two Republicans lost St. Clair and Alexander by only narrow margins, and Alexander only had a few thousand votes in total.  So, in essence, Pat Quinn is going to remain Governor for one reason and one reason only:  Cook County.  Kirk, meanwhile, was able to win slightly bigger margins over AlexiG than Brady over Quinn in the 99 red counties, especially the “collar counties” (suburban Chicago outside Cook), so that made the difference.  That and the presence of Scott Lee Cohen on the GOV ballot as an Independent (he ran for Governor as an Independent after the Democrats were successful in taking his primary win for Lieutenant Governor away based on his scandalous past), had the effect of peeling some anti-Quinn votes away from Brady.  I get the feeling that the effort both to remove Cohen from his primary win (he would have been Quinn’s running mate) AND his run for Governor as an Indy was all Quinn and Democrat Party engineered.  Cohen will get some sort of reward out of this, mark my words.

I didn’t see or hear one Brady media buy in the St. Louis market.  (Come to think of it, none for Quinn, either.)  I bet Brady wishes he would have taken some ads downstate instead of just taking it for granted.

Brady’s loss would have had personal ramifications for me, because Illinois can forget about a carry bill for another four years.  But I’m being laid off anyway, so it’s back to the Missouri side of the river with my lily-white ass just before Christmas.  Unlike last year, I’m going to change my residency back to Missouri formally — I’ll look for a new job on my native side of the river.  I’m done with this state for good.  I’ll have to wait six months in order to apply for my carry permit again, (residency waiting period and all), but I’m going to stick it to Illinois in an ironic sense by paying for my Missouri CCW permit fee from my Illinois unemployment check.

Quinn’s win means that Shiela Simon, Paul Simon’s daughter, becomes Lieutenant Governor.  I was never a fan of Paul Simon, (said he didn’t care about the anti-white ethnic cleansing in Cairo in the 1970s because there were more black voters in Cook County than there were all voters south of Springfield — Paul Simon, a Marine, Ill. native, was one of them, BTW), so I’ll probably never be a Shiela Simon fan.  And we’ll find out about her soon enough — You gotta figure that Federal corruption indictments against Pat Quinn are coming sooner rather than later.

As for the state I’m about to abandon — The ONLY way you’re EVER going to get CCW is to get statehood for Southern Illinois.  If last Tuesday didn’t make you figure that out, then nothing ever will.

On to the strange case of Mark Kirk — Senate Republicans, he’s your crap sandwich now.  Like I said in the preview, he’s a Jim Jeffords type who will become a Democrat if Reid/Durbin/Schumer offer him the right gift basket.  He will join the Senate as soon as Jesse White’s office certifies both Senate races (see below), but he’ll be no help in the lame duck session.

Senate was above Governor on my ballot, and so it probably was in all of Illinois.  Technically, there were two Senate races — One was to fill the rest of Obama’s term that he won in 2004 (less than two months), and the other was the full six-year term starting January 3.  Both ballots had Kirk vs AlexiG vs the Green Party candidate vs the Libertarian Party candidate (I voted Libertarian — BTW, turns out I was wrong about that — Green was not the only “third party” on the ballot in that race), and Kirk won them both.  Interestingly, Green + Libertarian got 7% of the vote in the “Special” election, and only 5% in the “Full Six Year” election.

They say living well is the best revenge.  When it comes to this rotten state I’m about to ditch like a bad habit, suffering badly is the best revenge.  When, in four years, the South Side of Chicago is under martial law because of all the violent felons Pat Quinn will have let out of prison, when Quinn himself is in Federal prison for corruption, and when the state government is in Federal bankruptcy court, (no bailouts from the Feds, because the Republicans run the House, tee hee), don’t come cryin’ to me, ’cause it will be neither my problem nor fault.

OTHER ILLINOIS STATEWIDE RACES

First, I have to correct myself about something.  I said in the preview that Judy Baar Topinka, running for Comptroller, was running for her old job that she abandoned in 2006 to run for Governor.  I was wrong — she was Treasurer for a long time, abandoned it in 2006, (AlexiG replaced her), and was running for Comptroller this year.

Topinka won Comptroller, and Dan Rutherford, a Republican State Senator from Pontiac, will replace AlexiG as Treasurer.  As expected, Jesse White and Lisa Madigan, both Democrat incumbents, easily won re-election to Secretary of State and Attorney General, respectively.  This probably sets up Shiela Simon vs Dan Rutherford for 2014′s race for Governor, a race which Pat Quinn can watch from the comfortable confines of his Federal prison cell.

ILLINOIS U.S. HOUSE SEATS

Assuming the result in IL-8 holds, then four R-to-D flips, meaning a former 12-7 Democrat advantage in the IL U.S. House delegation has become an 11-8 Republican advantage.  I don’t know what the prospects are for IL gaining or losing House seats after reapportionment.  Republicans made gains in the IL State House and Senate, but not enough to flip either chamber.  So with Democrat everything in the relevant parts of state government, Democrats will gerrymander IL’s lines to their heart’s content next year.  Therefore, this Republican advantage from IL won’t hold for long.

8:  This is the one still up in the air, but if it holds, Joe Walsh will have ousted incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean.  This is Phil Crane’s old seat, which Bean took from him in 2002.  (UPDATE 11/17:  Walsh wins by a few hundred votes.)

10:  Not a flip, but Republicans only narrowly hold on to the seat that Mark Kirk abandoned to run for the Senate.

11:  The district I’d be living in if that job in Chicago would have come through earlier this year.  Debbie Hitlerson is out.  BUH-Bye.  Phooey on you, NRA, as I tear up my membership card.  (See also:  NV, PA).

14:  Dennis Hastert’s old seat.  Peoria is the biggest city in it.  Bill Foster is out.  BUH-Bye.  Foster won this seat twice over Jim Oberweis, once in a special election to replace Hastert, who resigned both Republican leadership and his seat after 2006′s blue wave, and again two years ago.  Adam Kinzinger bounced Foster out this year.  Jim Oberweis’s serious prospects for a political career are gone.

17:  This is really strange district in terms of geography.  It includes Illinois’s “Quad Cities,” and most of the “boob” of Illinois lovingly called “Forgottonia,” but it also snakes down to counties near St. Louis, and in the St. Louis media market, and has a little appendage that extends to Springfield.  It has been Democrat-held for quite a long time, the most recent Democrat being incumbent Phil Hare.  But Robert Schilling is making Hare hop his way off Capitol Hill.  IL-17 is a much more significant flip than the others, because 8, 11 and 14 are traditionally red areas that Democrats were able to flip in the recent past.  So Republicans, in those cases, were taking back what was “traditionally” theirs until 2002 and 2006, as the case may be.  IL-17 flipping is almost as shocking as MO-3 flipping, which it almost did (see below).

ILLINOIS STATE HOUSE AND SENATE SEATS

Republicans flipped two Senate and six House seats.  However, Democrats still have a 64-54 edge in the House and a 35-24 lead in the Senate.  With this and Quinn as Governor, Congressional reapportionment and redistricting in 2010 should benefit Democrats immensely.  Even if Brady would have won, getting a carry bill out of that morass would have been difficult.

My current House district was one of the six flips.  Dwight Kay did turn out Jay Hoffman in H-112, albeit narrowly.  My vote didn’t make the total difference, but it helped.  However, it will be a vote that Kay won’t have in 2012.

ILLINOIS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

I didn’t want it, because I was just assuming Brady would win Governor, and therefore, corruption would be a thing of the past.  But it passed, with 66% of the vote, while it needed 60% to be part of the state constitution.

Because Pat Quinn won Governor, the new amendment will have its first use in a few years.

U.S. SENATE, MISSOURI

I predicted a 5-10 point win for Blunt, mainly because both he and Mrs. Antolinez were flawed candidates, and he would carry the day on pure partisan excitement alone.

I got the result right, but the margin wrong.  It was a 14-point Blunt win, which is the largest margin of victory for a U.S. Senate candidate from Missouri since 1994, when John Ashcroft beat Alan “BBQ in the Bathtub” Wheat by 23 points.  All Mrs. Antolinez won was St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Kansas City proper.  Everything else was red, even reliably Democrat Ozarks counties in southeastern Missouri up to St. Louis that Claire McCaskill carried four years ago.

There was a Constitution Party candidate available, and I would have voted for him.  There was also a Libertarian Party candidate on the ballot.  Because a Blunt win was a foregone conclusion, the Lib. got 3% and the Cst. got 2.1%, to make more than 5% for both third party candidates.  Since both got over 2%, both Lib and Cst will be on the MO statewide ballot in 2012.  Like I have said on this medium in the past, third party candidates tend to do better when it is a foregone conclusion that one major party candidate will handily beat the other.  However, that rule of thumb broke down on Tuesday — Throughout the nation, including IL-GOV and IL-SEN, I saw a lot of big hauls for third parties and indies, even though the R-D margin was narrow.

Now, why did Mrs. Antolinez do so badly?  I disagree with Jamie Allman’s theory that the Missouri Democrat big wigs somehow “kept her in a cave” for months on end.  I mean, she’s got the last name, Carnahan, and that’s advertisement enough.  She’s been SoS since 2004, and not a week goes by that the STL and KC media don’t shove her snoot front-and-center for one reason or another.  So it could not possibly be that she lost by the margin she did because of no name recognition or no face time.  There had to be something else at work — Assume that of the 14-point margin, 5-10 of it is due to pure partisan excitement.  So that means you have to explain somewhere between 4 and 9 points for a reason other than “red day,” “name rec,” and “bad candidate.”  What that is, I have no clue.  It would be tempting to say that so many conservative rural voters thought she batted for the home team, so to speak, but I don’t think even that was really a big deal in most people’s minds.  So I’ve got nothing.

That Mrs. Antolinez radio ad where she set a “Blunt is too corrupt” message to a country music song was my favorite local media buy of the season.

Mr. Antolinez was actually present at his “wife’s” concession speech.  He is behind her, to the right of Jeanne Carnahan.  Russ and his wife Debra are to Jeanne’s left.  At my election watch party, someone blurted out, “Who’s that Mexican behind her?”  I had to explain to him and everyone there what the media in this town can’t seem to, that “Robin Carnahan” married one Juan Carlos Antolinez, who was in the diplomatic corps of some South American country at the time, about three years ago.  I then repeated the popular theory (among the few people that know she’s actually married) that the marriage is a cover for a certain lifestyle choice on her part, that particular “lifestyle choice” I posited then rejected two paragraphs ago as a reason for her big loss.

CW among state politicos after it became obvious that she was going to lose this Senate race is that Mrs. Antolinez is the Democrat nominee for Governor in 2016.  That’s going on the brash assumption that she wins another term as SoS in 2012.  After 2004, George Soros started something called the “Secretary of State Project,” to fund as many campaigns for Democrat SoS as possible, in order to enable Democrats to steal elections.  With the increased awareness in voter fraud, who is to say that the Republicans don’t start a similar campaign in reaction, which results in Mrs. Antolinez not winning a third term as SoS in 2012?  There will go her shot at being Governor.  As an aside, the only two people to be Republican Secretaries of State in MO since WWII are Roy Blunt and Matt Blunt.

As for 2012, Claire McCaskill is up.  I like the initiative she took on the immigration issue during the first two years of her term.  Two words:  Julie Myers.  Unfortunately, she has not yet been tested on the issue when there is a Democrat in the White House, especially one like Obama that she supported over HRC from the jump.  And now that Republicans will run the House, I don’t think any immigration legislation, either of the amnesty variety or the restriction variety, will grow any legs.  So I don’t think she’s going to be tested any time soon.  And it looks like I’ll be a Missouri voter once again in 2012, so I’m going to have a tough choice.  To me, it all depends on who the Republicans run against her.  My inclination at the moment is that I vote McCaskill two years hence unless the Republican is really something special.

MISSOURI AUDITOR

Sonofabitch.  I’ll be damned.  G*ddamnit.

It’s been awhile, so it’ll probably do me well to explain why I didn’t want the Danforth drone to win — First, he’s a Danforth drone.  Second, he, as a senior partner in the Bryan Cave LLP firm in St. Louis, was crucial in helping whitewash the late 1990s Waco investigation that (guess who) John Danforth chaired.

Part of the reason that Susan Montee lost is that Tom Danforth (no, I will never use his real last name) made an issue of Montee’s being Co-Chair of Obama’s Missouri campaign organization, which she was even during the primaries between Obama and Hillary.  This is probably a hint that Axelrod and Plouffe can already color Missouri and it’s about to be 10 electoral votes red for 2012.

MISSOURI U.S. HOUSE SEATS

4:  I told you that 4 was the only MO House seat that had a chance of flipping, and golly gosh bedoozle, it was the only one that did.  I can forgive most people for not understanding how dramatic a flip this was.  Hartzler even won Cole County (Jefferson City), Skelton’s back yard practically.

I think Boehner promising Vicky Hartzler a spot on the Armed Services Committee helped her win.  Ike Skelton was of course its Chairman, and has been ever since 2006′s blue wave.  Skelton was one of three of Pelosi’s committee chairmen that went down on Tuesday, see SC and MN for the others.

Another notable thing about this district flipping is that in 1994, no Missouri House seats flipped, in spite of 52 D to R flips nationwide.  The Republicans did flip MO-9 two years later, then MO-6 in 2000.  No Missouri House seats flipped from R to D in the blue waves of two and four years ago (knock on wood).  Now with the red wave of this year, a Missouri seat did flip.

3:  I’ll give Ed Martin all the credit in the world.  In the last 30 years, MO-3 has consisted of at least southern St. Louis City, southern St. Louis County and nearly all of Jefferson County.  And in those 30 years and 15 races, this one, likely the last one of the current geographical iteration of MO-3, was the closest any Republican has come to winning it.  Final margin for Russ Carnahan over Martin was 4,500 votes, or 2.2%.  Amazingly, Martin carried Jefferson County by 20 points, (!!!!!!!!!), and Ste. Gen County by 6.  He lost South County to Carnahan by only 0.3%.  Carnahan did beat Martin in South City by 66% to 30%, and that’s what made the difference.  30% is way more than most Republicans running for Congress get in South City, but it wasn’t enough.

Just imagine, if the parts of South County that were in MO-3 from 1991 to 2001 that are currently in MO-2 (mainly west of 55, south of 270), were still in MO-3, Ed Martin would have won this thing.

Russ Carnahan better live it up now.  Missouri is going to lose a House seat after reapportionment.  The incoming House Speaker is from Perryville, the current Senate Majority Leader is from Farmington, and the incoming Senate President Pro Tem is from Dexter.  What do all three of them have in common, boys and girls?  All three of those towns are in MO-8, Jo Ann Emerson’s district (more on her below).  You know they’ll take up her cause, so you can pretty much figure out who they’re gonna stick it to when figuring out whose seat to draw out of existence.  Unfortunately, it will probably also mean that all of St. Louis City will be in one Congressional district, meaning Lazy Boy Clay.  But you know that the General Assembly is going to draw an eight-district Missouri map to engineer a 6-2 Republican majority.

8:  Sure, there were SOME people who bought Tommy Sowers’s “blue dog” con job, but there were more than twice as many people that didn’t.  This is 2010, Tommy, not 2008 or 2006.  Jo Ann Emerson wins another term.  And, like I said above, she’s got some friends in high places.  Honestly, though, I wish she would find something else to do, because she’s amnesty and open borders all the way.

5:  Beaver Cleaver won another term in this Kansas City urban district.  BUT…his Republican opponent, Jacob Turk, came within 9 points.  Mainly because Turk did a lot better than the usual Republican token challenger in this district in the non-KC parts of Jackson County and the small portion of Cass County that 5 contains.  Kansas City proper figures into my Prop A analysis — See below.

7:  A man who only wants to be known as “Billy” will indeed replace Roy Blunt in MO-7.  That was a foregone conclusion in November — The real race was in August.

2:  Of course, Todd Akin was going to win.  But from what I understand, his treatment of his Democrat opponent, Arthur Lieber, who once taught ethics and other similar classes at Metro High School in St. Louis, was pretty gracious and accommodating, if not totally perfect.  I wish Akin would make a run for some sort of House leadership position or committee chairmanship.  That he does not is probably a clue that he’s got either Jefferson City or the Other End of the Hall on his mind.

MISSOURI STATE HOUSE AND SENATE

Big surprise in the House:  Republicans flip 17 seats, meaning their 89-73 majority before (54%) will be a 106-57 (65%) majority in January.  Almost veto-proof.   Nobody, not even the most die-hard Republican in the State Republican Committee, saw this many flips.  The consensus prediction was that the GOP would get back the three in in the House it lost two years ago, and maybe a few more.  But nobody but nobody but nobody was predicting more than 10% of the total House membership would turn over.

Three Senate flips, too, which is almost a 10% turnover in that body.  An already veto-proof 23-11 Republican majority before becomes 26-8 now.  One of the flips was S-24 in central St. Louis County — John Lamping eked it out over Barbara Frazer, to replaced the TLed Democrat Joan Bray.  Unfortunately, one of those flips was NOT S-22 in northern Jefferson County — Ryan McKenna beat Greg Zotta, albeit not by a big margin.  (Zotta is sort of a perennial candidate for anything and everything).  McKenna won in spite of a red wave falling over Jefferson County — Ed Martin, I mentioned above.  Blunt beat Mrs. Antolinez by 15 points in JeffCo, even though JeffCo is where her father’s plane crashed ten years ago.  JeffCo is starting in on a charter county government, and its first County Executive and seven of the eight County Council members will be Republican, as will be a slew of other county-wide elected officers.  Now, you see, Jefferson County?  This is what happens when you lay off the meth — You start thinking more clearly and more rationally.  And where there is sanity and rationality, there are very few Democrats.  (Speaking of which, Sheriff Glenn “Truth Squader” Boyer — Be very very worried.  Your ass is up for re-election soon.)  As it is, this will be McKenna’s second and therefore final Senate term.

The non-scandal involving Brian Nieves didn’t hurt him.  He won S-26 (western St. Louis Co., Franklin Co., Warren Co.) by better than 2-to-1.  This was replacing the TLed Allen Icet, who lost to Tom Danforth (sonofabitch, I’ll be damned, g*ddamnit) in AUD-R in August.  So this is not a party flip.

The other two Senate flips were S-18 (Northeast MO, Hannibal, Canton, Kirksville) and S-16 (East Central MO, Ft. Leonard Wood, Salem, Rolla, Hermann, Montgomery City).

Former House Speaker Ron Richard was unopposed in S-32 (Joplin-Carthage-Neosho), so he is moving “across the hall,” so to speak.  You never know, he might get to be Senate Majority Leader or President Pro Tem in his second term.  I wonder how many state legislators have been both Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader during their political careers.

The only Democrat House member in the St. Louis urbanized footprint that is not in St. Louis City or North/Central St. Louis County is H-101, mostly Arnold.  That and S-22 were the only real bright spots for Democrats in Jefferson County.

A non-urban Democrat in the Missouri General Assembly is becoming as rare as teeth on hens.

MISSOURI CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

All three pass, with huge margins to spare.  I mistakenly said while analyzing Amend 1 in the preview that St. Louis and Jackson were the only charter counties in Missouri.  Obviously, you just read that Jefferson is about to become one, and St. Charles has been one since the mid-1990s.  However, Amend 1 essentially exempts Jackson County, so it applies to STL, Jefferson and St. Chuck.  And since STL CO’s voters voted for electing their assessors in August, all this amendment means is that Jefferson and St. Chuck will go to elected assessors.

Here’s hoping that Jackson County’s population at the next census is 599,999 or 700,001.

MISSOURI PROPOSITION A

Wins by a better than 2-to-1 margin statewide.  It lost only in St. Louis City and in Kansas City proper.

What I was curious to find out is how badly it lost in both cities.  Like I said in the preview, there was a split between KC’s leaders and STL’s leaders over Prop A, even though they were both opposed — KC wanted to kill the dragon before it got out of the cave, while STL didn’t care if it got out of the cave because STL is confident of its ability to kill it out in the open.  In other words, STL thinks that its voters would never do away with the city earnings tax, even though they will now have a chance to do so every five years — KC I suppose thinks it could go either way in April 2011 and/or every five years thereafter.

Now I know why.  STL City was more than 2-1 No.  Kansas City voted no, but ONLY 55% no (see update below).  So this proves that my guess was right — St. Louis City voters WILL vote to keep the earnings tax in April.  Kansas City might as well, but it’s far from a sure thing.  However, I think KC’s leaders are worried about nothing, because Prop A’s vote happened on a day biased toward white and Republican and conservative turnout, and biased against black and liberal and Democrat turnout.  When there are actual votes to keep or ditch the earnings taxes, blacks and Democrats and white liberals will come out in force in both cities.  St. Louis will vote in the low to mid 70s to keep the earnings tax, and KC will vote with at least 60% to keep theirs.

It all makes me wonder what kind of dope Rex Sinquefield was smoking.  Why did he go through all this trouble to get this on the ballot?  It won’t make an actual difference even though it passed (even though no more cities will be able to enact earnings taxes), because, like I said, STL and KC voters will be voting every five years to keep theirs.  So what gives?

Then it hit me like a brick — Rex Sinquefield is crazy, but he’s crazy like a fox.  When you go to the well for water too many times, you eventually run out of water.  By getting Prop A on the ballot and passed, this means that liberals in both of Missouri’s major cities are going to have to go to the well for money and contributions every five years just to keep their earnings taxes.  This means that there’s less liberal money for Democrat politicians and for other propositions and referenda.  Nice thinking, Rex :)

All that I wish is that the earnings tax in St. Louis could be modified to disallow it from collecting earnings taxes on earnings that city residents earn outside of the city.  Hell, St. Louis City wants earnings taxes from income you, as a city resident, earn outside of Missouri!

UPDATE 11/15:  A reader informed me that 55% No 45% Yes was only for the parts in Kansas City proper within Jackson County.  The city has a whole, which also extends into Cass, Platte and Clay counties, voted 52% Yes to 48% No.  Now it makes it even more clear why KC’s civic elite wanted Prop A defeated now.  However, my analysis is still the same about April 2011 — The black/Democrat/left will be out in force, and it will lose.  But not by much.

MISSOURI PROPOSITION B

The dog proposition.  Barely won — It was losing most of the night, and then urban and suburban boxes saved it.

Here’s the problem for proponents — Prop B doesn’t state a punishment for not following its precepts.  Yeah, you can tell large scale dog breeders to treat their dogs well, but where or what is the “or else?”

ST. LOUIS CITY PROPOSITIONS

Prop L (local control of SLPD) passed, but it’s only a symbolic vote.  Prop F (doubling maximum city fine) failed, and that vote actually meant something.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE

51% Dooley, 47% Corrigan.  This is WAY closer than Charlie Dooley would have liked.  Corrigan was leading for most of the night, but the north county boxes were the last to come in.

The last time a Republican won an election for County Executive was Gene McNary’s last term in 1986.  Three years later, President Bush 41 tapped him to run INS, (McNary was WAY out of his league), and H. Milford, then the longest tenured Republican on the County Council, sled in to CoExec.  Buzz Westfall beat Milford in 1990, and it’s been Democrats Westfall then Dooley ever since.  (Fruits of the Page Avenue Extension.  Now you know why Buzz Westfall wanted it so badly.)  I think this is the closest any Republican will come ever again for STL CO Exec — The County is getting regressively blacker and blacker by the year.

No party flips in the County Council.  Democrats maintain a 5-2 majority.

Overall, mixed results in STL CO.  Prop A wins, Dooley wins, Democrats maintain their CoCo majority, S-24 flips from D to R, Mrs. Antolinez wins by 7 points for Senate.

MISSOURI JUDGES

All retained.  Finding a judge under the Plan Nine from Outer Space that didn’t get at least 60% is as rare as finding teeth on hens.

***

I’m going to review the results of national races one state at a time, instead of like I previewed them, one race at a time.  The reason I’m doing it differently is that I tend to think my analysis of the results will make more sense when I analyze everything in a state together.  Too, I will break down more Congressional, statewide downballot and issues races here than I did in the preview.

ALABAMA

Damn near a clean Republican sweep.  The only significant Democrat win was AL-7, the seat Artur Davis (D) abandoned to run for Governor.

AL-2 flipped back to the GOP after flipping to the Democrats two years ago.  One of the seats in North Alabama stayed in Republican hands after the Democrat that had it switched parties earlier this year then decided not to run for another term.  All this means that Alabama’s Congressional delegation is 6-to-1 Republican.

Luther Strange, who beat George Wallace Jr in LTGOV-R in July 2006, (that happened during The Great St. Louis Power Outage of 2006 Part 1), and in turn lost to Jim Folsom Jr (prominent name in Alabama’s Democrat politics — Ironically, “Big” Jim Folsom Sr was George Wallace Sr’s early political mentor), made a political comeback this year, and will be the next AG.  Folsom Jr lost his bid for another term as Lt. Gov.

And you can probably deduce that Robert Bentley and Richard Shelby won easily.

ALASKA

At the moment, “Write-Ins” have 41%, Joe Miller has 34%, and the longshot Democrat has 23%.  It is assumed that almost all of the write-ins are for Lisa Madcowski, but Miller is holding out hope that some of the write-in ballots will be DQed, as usually happens, and some won’t be for Madcowski, as there were a slew of declared write-in candidates.  At the time of this writing, 89% of the first round of write-in votes physically examined are for Madcowski, and 89% times 41% is 36.5%, so she wins if that pattern holds.  (UPDATE 11/17:  She wins by about a 2,300 vote, or 1%, margin).  If she ekes this thing out, I expect Madcowski to caucus with the Republicans, but at the same token, it will further crack the DeMint-McConnell schism in the Senate.  Come to think of it, a Miller win would do the same.  The sooner the better, IMHO.

One can only hope that there’s a strong enough paper trail for the U.S. Attorney’s office to bring felony corruption charges against her and some of her big money supporters.  That will happen if Sarah Palin wins the White House and appoints her own U.S. Attorney for Alaska.

Sean Parnell easily won a term for Governor in his own right.  Don Young easily won another term in the state’s only U.S. House seat.  Not a big Young fan — He was behind PR statehood.  One would figure that the Congressman from the state furthest away from Puerto Rico would make it one of his pet issues.

ARIZONA

McCain, Brewer.  As to be expected.

Brewer’s win is the perfect rebuttal to the open borders Repugnican crowd gloating over Sharron Angle’s loss in Nevada.  Scroll down to NV while we’re on that subject.

Republicans swept the downballot statewide races.

GOP turned over two House seats, AZ-1 and AZ-5.  5 was J.D. Hayworth’s old seat that Harry Mitchell took from him in 2006.  Don’t know much about the politics of 1, but I do know the geography of 1 — the biggest in the state in terms of land area:  north central, northwest and east central parts of the state.  Democrats Raul Grijalva and Gabrielle Giffords eked out wins in border districts AZ-8 and AZ-7, respectively.  In spite of previous worries, Mr. Potatoe Head Jr., Ben Quayle, did win to replace the retiring John Shadegg in AZ-3.  This means the previous 5-3 Democrat advantage is now a 5-3 Republican advantage.  Arizona will likely gain one House seat after reapportionment.

GOP flipped three of the 30 State Senate seats, going from 18 to 21 members, or rather, from 60% to 70% control of the chamber.  Russell Pearce, the “controversial” immigration control stalwart from Mesa, who had a big hand in crafting SB 1070, is the new Senate Majority Leader.  I don’t know about the state house’s exact numbers, but I do know it was and still will be majority Republican.  So you’ve got Brewer, Pearce and the GOP-run House ready to re-draw the state around nine Congressional districts.  Buh-BYE Gabrielle Giffords in 2012.  Yeah, they might save Grijalva and Ed Pastor (who is Hispanic) just to keep the DOJ’s voting rights jackals at bay (would be the only part of the DOJ NOT suing the state), but I’d rather punish Giffords anyway.

Among the ballot measures that passed were a Ward Connerly imitative, (though it mostly matches existing state law that legislators took it upon themselves to pass — Paying attention, Missouri?), an ObamaCare insurance mandate interpositional law, (but only with 55% of the vote), and an anti-Card Check law.  Among the failing ballot measures were creating a Lieutenant Governor position (which would have made Gubernatorial succession much easier), and a medical weed question (UPDATE 11/17:  Medical weed barely wins).

ARKANSAS

Boozman and Beebe winning big were foregone conclusions.  Boozman (pronounced like Bozeman, Montana) is only the second AR Republican elected U.S. Senator since Reconstruction.  I notice in SEN, Green + Ind got more than 5%.

Rs flip AR-1 and AR-2.  They also easily hold AR-3, which Boozman abandoned to run for SEN.

I said in the preview that I was unsure about supporting Boozman because Arkansas Republicans are really liberal on race and immigration.  Especially since Boozman held down AR-3 in the House, which includes the World HQs for Wal*Martinez and Tyson.  However, NumbersUSA gives Boozman a lifetime A grade, and furthermore, he is only one of a handful of House members that get NUSA’s “Blue Ribbon” award of simultaneously sponsoring its five most coveted immigration restriction bills.  And he willingly joined the House Immigration Restriction Caucus that Tom Tancredo (See CO) founded and Brian Bilbray (R-CA) has led since Double-T left the House two years ago.

Beebe’s big win was not enough to sweep the Democrats to victory in statewide downballot races.  Both the Lt. Gov. and (more importantly) the SoS winners are GOP.  Dems win AG, Aud and Treas.

CALIFORNIA

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

I could laugh, but there are a few hundred thousand innocent people in the state who would be offended.  On the other hand, I could cry, but it’s not like I didn’t predict this, and it’s not like I was a fan of Nutmeg Whitman or Carly H-1Borina anyway.  The main problem with Nutmeg is that she couldn’t differentiate herself from the failed Arnold Schwarzenegger — Other than anatomy, they’re almost exactly alike.  For her part, Carly H-1Borina failed because Barbara Boxer hit her hard on outsourcing and insourcing, though Mrs. Boxer is a total hypocrite when it comes to that — Mr. Boxer is in big and thick with China.

Jerry Brown, already the youngest person to be elected California Governor, is now also the oldest person to do the same.  San Francisco Mayor Gavin “Any Twosome” Newsom will be the next Lieutenant Governor, (beating a Republican Hispanic in the process — Paying attention, Bush, Rove, et al.?) and San Francisco County D.A. Kamala Harris, who hearts illegal alien criminals, is narrowly ahead in the race for Attorney General.

With that combination, a former Oakland Mayor, a current San Francisco Mayor and a current San Francisco D.A., and with Gavin Newsom now the odds on favorite to win Governor in 2014, California is well on its way to becoming fully communized.  And here they tell me Upton Sinclair lost that election.  Seems to me he won in the long run.  Nobody Prospers in Mexifornia.

To think, between 1982, when Jerry Brown rode out of town, and this year, when Jerry Brown rode back into town, Republicans controlled the Governor’s office for a little more than 23 of those 28 years.  George Deukmejian for two terms, then native St. Louisan Pete Wilson for two terms, then Grayout Davis, the only Democrat in that time span, for a whole term then almost a year of the second before he was recalled, then Arnold Schwarzenegger for the balance of what should have been Davis’s second term then one of his own.  What good did it do?   The state will probably never have a Republican Governor, statewide elected official, or Republican control of either one of its legislative chambers, ever again.  The Stupid Party just doesn’t get race and demographics.

No House flips yet, but CA-20, a central valley district near Fresno, might flip from D to R.  CA-47 did not flip — That’s Bob Dornan’s old district that Loretta Sanchez has held for awhile.  Her challenger this time around was some Vietnamese man, which led Sanchez to proclaim that the “Vietnamese were trying to take away our Hispanic seat.”  Which should surely cause a diplomatic row between Mexico and Vietnam.  If CA-20 and the other not yet decided Congressional race holds, then it’ll be a 33-20 Democrat advantage in the CA Congressional delegation.  CA may not actually gain any House seats after reapportionment next year — In fact, there is credible gossip that it might LOSE a seat.  Since there were no House flips, this means all the good remaining Congressmen who represent CA congressional districts between L.A. and San Diego that are still lucky enough to be mostly white — Rohrabacher, Bilbray, Hunter, Issa (who will now hand out subpoenas like penny candy), etc., easily win.  Unfortunately, it’s only a matter of time until demographics eat them alive.  (UPDATE 11/23:  Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa narrowly holds onto CA-20.  Meaning no CA flips, meaning a 34-19 Democrat advantage in the U.S. House delegation both before and after.)

The two props that stand out to me are 19 (weed, failed) and 25 (budget, passed).  I think 19 failed because Schwarzenegger recently downgraded weed possession to a traffic ticket style offense a few weeks ago, (as Paul Huebl demonstrated, this effectively legalized weed possession), so this took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Pro-19 forces.  I don’t believe Michael Savage’s theory that “family values Hispanics” were the dominant force in knocking down Prop 19, because the exit polls showed roughly equal opposition across racial lines.  It won with all voters under 30, but not by much.  Also, with Brown, Newsom and Harris running the state means that weed has become effectively legalized — But don’t you DARE smoke a cigarette.  (For the record, I would have have voted for Prop 19, and you should know me well enough to know why.)  Prop 25 means that only a simple majority of the State House and Senate are needed to pass a budget.  Considering what runs California now, what this means going forward is that California in bankruptcy court is going to happen sooner than what it otherwise would.  Jerry Brown is counting on Federal bailouts, but with John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan holding the keys to the Federal treasure chest, there will be no bailouts.  Big spending libtards, tee hee.

COLORADO

Bill Ritter has to be kicking himself in the ass right about now.

Since John Hickenlooper got above 50%, Dan Maes cannot be blamed.  Michael Bennet won a term in his own right, with under a 1% margin and finishing under 50% over Ken Buck.

I fear that Colorado is lost to Mexico forever, if Republicans or Republican-ish candidates can’t break through statewide with a red wave to their backs.  The last time a Republican won SEN or GOV in the state was 2002, with Bill Owens and Wayne Allard both winning re-election on the same day to GOV and SEN, respectively.

Buck not winning might be the most disappointing Senate result of the night.  Part of that is that the dumbass RSCC wasted a lot of money on Carly H-1Borina, and she finished almost 10 points back of Barbara Boxer.

I’m wondering if Tom Tancredo made a mistake by leaving the House.  I know he promised to serve only four terms and wound up serving five, and I know that his replacement, Mike Coffman, is just as good on the immigration issue (Coffman has the same NUSA Blue Ribbon designation that John Boozman has, see AR), but you just can’t waste talent like that on quixotic efforts.

GOP flipped CO-3 and CO-4, the two largest land area districts in the state.  3 is mainly rural western and southern parts of the state, not including the ritzy ski towns, (that’s how a Republican could even win), while 4 is mostly eastern and northern parts of the state.  CO-3 flipping is ironic, considering the Senate result, because CO-3 was John Salazar, brother of Ken Salazar, whose former Senate seat Michael Bennet won in his own right.  CO-7 did not flip, and the Republican who wanted to flip it was one of the three black Republicans running for the House, Ryan Frazier.  Overall, 5-2 D turns to 4-3 R advantage.  CO probably gains a House seat next year.  Republicans took back the State House after losing it either two or four years ago, but Democrats hold the Senate and will also have Hickenlooper.  The new CO House map will probably not be biased heavily toward either party.

State voters narrowly defeated a state law prohibiting ObamaCare’s individual mandate.

CONNECTICUT

I disagree with Ann Coulter about Linda McMahon being a bad candidate.  She had Richard Blumenthal on the ropes (no pun intended) when it came to debating, campaign ads, mastery of the issues, etc., but it didn’t matter and wouldn’t have mattered, because CT is a deep blue state, ergo Blumenthal was going to win.  And by twelve percent he did.

Dan Malloy (D) wins a squeaker for Governor, flipping CT-GOV from R to D.  Something which didn’t happen much last week.  Democrats swept everything else statewide downballot.

No House flips.  All five of CT’s seats remain blue.

DELAWARE

Joe Biden was accustomed to winning this Senate seat by blowout margins.  Chris Coons won, but only by 16 points.  Give Christine O’Donnell that much, if you want to grant her anything.

Like she did in the primary vs Castle two months ago, Christine O’Donnell beat Coons in Delaware’s middle and southern counties, but lost big in the northern county.  She actually carried independents but lost Republicans — You know who to blame for that — His name sounds like “Roverrated.”  She carried whites 51-45 but lost blacks 93-6.  Wilmington and Newark, DE, both have a lot of blacks, mainly those who were “resettled” from Philly ghettos (Wilmington is only about 30 miles from Downtown Philly), in order to have a “better environment.”  You know how that usually works out.

In spite of the loss, like I said earlier in this space, Mike Castle winning this seat would have been a less desirable outcome than Chris Coons winning this seat.  Better the enemy you can see than the enemy you can’t.  Christine O’Donnell’s primary win guaranteed the worst scenario wouldn’t happen.

Lost the URL, but I saw an exit poll that was very close to the real outcome, (it showed Coons over O’Donnell by 15), that showed that Coons would have beaten Castle by 9.  Karl Roverrated, tee hee.  Obviously, Castle would have gotten a lot more Republicans than O’Donnell, but would have gotten a lot fewer independents.

DE’s at large House seat flipped from R to D, (Mike Castle abandoned it to run for Senate), and that was expected.  It was only one of three House seats to flip the other way last week.

Joseph R. Biden III (“Beau Biden”) easily won another term as AG.  I think he actually dreaded a Coons win, because this means he’s going to have to wait in line for longer than he wanted to go to the Senate.  Coons will want to stay in the Senate for awhile, and Tom Carper (D), who holds the other Senate seat from DE, shows no signs of slowing down.  Carper is up in 2012, and with the name Joe Biden above his on the ballot, you gotta think Carper will easily win another term.  Coons is up again in 2014, and Carper wouldn’t be up again until 2018.

FLORIDA

While Marco Rubio won the three-way race with 48.9%, Crist got 29.7% and Meek got 20.1%.  Rubio was close enough to 50 and had a big enough margin over Crist to make me think that he would have gotten above 50 if it were only Rubio-Crist or Rubio-Meek.

One reason why Rick Scott vs Alex Sink for GOV was a lot closer?  First, Bill McCollum’s FUD campaign from the primary had some lingering effects.  Second, Scott doesn’t have that much hair, while Alex Sink had a lot more — Michael Savage’s theory is that, even controlling for gender, the most and best hair wins the election.  If not for Rubio above him on the ballot, Scott probably would have lost his race.

FL House flips were 2, 8, 22 and 24.  8 is Alan Pottymouth Grayson going down (DLTDHYOTWYO), and 22 is one of the two successful out of three attempts for black Republicans in the House, Allen West.  I don’t know what to think about West — On the one hand, I get the feeling that when you strip away his well above average inner city preacher oratorical skills, there’s really no there there.  But on the other hand, his hobbies include distance running, skydiving, scuba diving and crotch rocketing — How many empty suit inner city preachers does THAT describe?

15-10 Republican advantage before, 19-6 Republican advantage after, in Florida’s U.S. House delegation.  FL will probably gain at least one seat next year, and Scott will be Governor, and the State House and Senate remain in Republican hands.  You know what that means.

GEORGIA

Let’s Make a Deal.

I promise, that’s my very last pun on the name of the next Governor of Georgia.  He got above 50%, in spite of a strong (4%) Libertarian candidate, so no runoff.

Republicans swept everything else statewide downballot.

Johnny Isakson had no problems for SEN.

The only House flip was GA-8, and the Democrat that lost was one of the most conservative in his caucus.  7-6 R becomes 8-5 R.  And again, Deal as GOV, and GOP-run State House and Senate, plus GA probably picking up a House seat next year, so Republican U.S. House candidates from Georgia will be dealt a good hand.  (“Hey, you promised!”)

HAWAII

Neil Abercrombie flips HI-GOV from R to D.  He replaces the TLed Linda Lingle, a St. Louis native.  Daniel Inouye won re-election to SEN easily — In no way did I think he was ever in danger.  HI-2 stays in Democrat hands, and HI-1 flips the other direction, one of only three R to D U.S. House flips last week.  Honestly, any Republican holding any House seat in Hawaii is sorta flukish — Charles Djou won HI-1 in a special election this past May after Abercrombie abandoned it to run for Governor.

IDAHO

No, you da ho.  Who else would wear that much red?

And that IS a double entendre — Republicans won everything that mattered.  Even the tragically named Keith Allred lost.

GOP flips ID-1, thereby sending a native Puerto Rican and a Mormon (there’s an unusual combination) in the person of Raul Labrador to Washington.

INDIANA

Too much Brad Ellsworth love on my part, I suppose.  My upset special was itself upset.

Democrats flipped IN-2, IN-8 and IN-9 in the blue wave of 2006, (Brad Ellsworth was IN-8), and the GOP took the latter two back this year.

While IN-GOV elections are on Presidential years, some statewide state government races are during off-years like these, and Republicans swept all three available.

IOWA

Grassley, Branstad.  No House flips, so stays 3-2 Democrat.

I may have backed the wrong horse for GOV.  I was for Culver, mainly b/c he signed the bill moving IA from a may issue to a shall issue state on CCW.  But as I type these words, Gov.-Elect Branstad has already come out for an SB 1070 style law for his state.

State voters turned out all three of the State Supreme Court judges who were both on the ballot and voted for gay marriage last year.

Otherwise, get back to me about 14 months from now, when I’ll break down the Hawkeye Cauci.

KANSAS

Brownback, Moran, Kobach.  I was most acutely interested in the latter.

Kris Kobach flips SoS from D to R, and AG and Treasurer also flipped from D to R.  After 2006′s blue wave, KS’s House seats were 2-2 — Republicans got one of them back two years ago, and the other (KS-3, KC Suburbs) back this year.  Republicans easily win the other two already red KS districts that Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt abandoned to run against each other for SEN-R back in August.  So all four House seats are red.  Kathleen Sebelius is now but a bad memory.  Oops, scratch that — If ObamaCare isn’t changed, then the American health care system is pretty much at her personal discretion starting in a few years.

Are there any Democrats left in Kansas at all?

It seems like the hardest part about Samnesty Brownback’s campaign for Governor was deciding to run for Governor.  Everything else was inevitable from there.  There are plenty of sitting and former Congress(wo)men who become their state’s Governor, (see GA, OK, HI, OH in this post), but going from the U.S. Senate to Governor is rare.  (It happens a lot the other way — ND, e.g.)  When he was in the Senate, Brownback dealt with a lot of important national and international issues — War and peace, multi-trillion dollar budgets, peace treaties, trade agreements, Supreme Court confirmations, Presidential impeachment verdicts, and what not.  I can ill imagine that he would want to give that all up to deal with paving rural dirt paths in Dung Bucket County, bickering over the location of the drivers license office in Salina, engaging in creative accounting to shore up the ammunition budget for the State Highway Patrol, and issuing disaster declarations for one tornado-ravaged town after another.  On the other hand, you have much greater flexibility in your daily schedule as a Chief Executive.

KENTUCKY

Really, Jack Conway.  Really?  AQUA BUDDHA?  Hell, I’m tempted to go out and buy one just to see what all the fuss is about.

The news might get worse for Conway — He’s still AG, but state government elections come up next November.  And I’m sure the Aqua Buddha lobby wants to take him out.

I predicted Paul wins by 10-15, and he won by 12.  Why can’t all my other prognostications be this good?  The only thing I got wrong is that Fayette County (Lexington) would have a low turnout, because both Rand Paul and Jack Conway are alumni of Duke grad schools, and the University of Kentucky and Duke sorta have a basketball rivalry.  Fayette’s turnout was a little higher than statewide average.  As for Paul’s margin of victory, it is way bigger than any margins of victory for the man he will replace, Jim Bunning, (who won two squeakers), and the only KY-SEN margin bigger that I can recall offhand was Mitch McConnell’s 2002 re-election win.  Even McConnell has had close shaves in his life, including just two years ago.  That should shut up some establishment talking heads in Kentucky and nationally who were miffed that Paul beat Trey Grayson in the primary, and childishly pouted about how Paul’s win would only be narrow.

Rand Paul did lose Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette, and a slew of eastern central mountain counties, but he cleaned up in Northern Kentucky (Cincinnati south suburbs), which makes me wonder how New America voted.  (Inside joke).  Paul also swept through the state’s southern and western counties.  Leslie County, which was Paul’s best county at 79%, will probably change its name to Aquabuddha.  Paul even won the under-25 vote, 52%-47%.

No House flips.  KY-6 (Lexington and environs), the best chance at a flip, seems like it’ll remain Democrat, with Ben Chandler holding a razor thin lead over Andy “The Hardened Thug Criminal” Barr.  (UPDATE 11/17:  Chandler wins, no KY flips.)  There was an outside chance to flip KY-3, (Jefferson County), which is Anne Northup’s old district.  John Yarmouth, who took it from her in 2006, holds on for another term.  However, within KY-3, a Republican came “this close” to becoming Louisville Mayor.

LOUISIANA

Vitter by 19.  The prostitution scandal has been all but forgotten.

Predictably, LA-2 (New Orleans) flipped from R to D.  Any Republican holding that seat was a fluke anyway.  Cedric Richmond, who ousted Anh Cao, has a lot of problems of his own.  Charlie Melancon abandoned LA-3 to lose to David Vitter, and the GOP turned that seat, also not a shock.  LA remains 6-1 Republican.

MAINE

In the preview, I mistakenly identified incumbent and TLed Gov. John Baldacci as a Republican.  He is a Democrat.

This means that the victory of Paul LePage, a Republican and a TPM favorite, means that ME-GOV is a party flip.  The independent got 36.5% and finished in a close second to LePage’s 38.3%.  The Democrat finished well back at 19.1%.

Democrats hold on to both of Maine’s House seats.  Republicans flipped both the ME State House and Senate, which means total Republican control of state government for the first time since 1964.  Though since ME only has two House seats, it would be sorta hard to gerrymander the boundary between the two to ensure that one of them is reliably red.

Voters in Portland rejected a proposal to allow legal aliens who are not yet citizens to vote in municipal elections.  Fine, but some 47% voted for it, which is disconcerting enough.

MARYLAND

Mikulski, O’Malley, easily.  Maryland is a deep blue state, so this is not surprising.  Maryland is getting more and more D.C. blacks who are being pushed out of the district by white liberal yuppie gentrification.  That and MD also has a bigger and bigger Hispanic contingent by the year.

GOP did flip MD-1, a district which is mostly MD’s part of the Delmarva peninsula.  That district is interesting, because two years ago, incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest, who had a rep as a RINO, lost in his own party’s primary to lamestream conservative Andy Harris, who in turn lost to Democrat Frank Kratovil narrowly, as part of the Obamamania in Maryland.  Harris came back to win his party’s primary again and also turn out Kratovil this year.  It seems to me that Maryland’s Delmarva peninsula counties ought to hook up with the southern two of three Delaware counties to become a whole new state, and give New Castle County, DE to Maryland while they’re at it.

MASSACHUSETTS

About half the people I follow on Twitter that were, like me, livetweeting during election night, wanted to jump off a bridge when the news came in that Barney Frank beat back a strong challenge from Sean Bielat to win another term in MA-4.  I talked them off the bridge when I reminded them that it’s Massachusetts, and that Barney Frank is a long time incumbent.  As it was, Frank’s margin was 10.5%, which was close to the one and only poll that I saw before the election.  Frank’s lowest margin of victory in the last decade before now was 43 points — I said a few weeks ago that if you apply a 33-point swing to every Congressional race, then the Republicans would easily flip 100 seats, but then I also said the danger in that is that it was a non sequitur to think that all 435 seats would swing 33 points toward the Republicans, because you had some local factors in MA-4 that just didn’t apply in, e.g. CA-8 (Pelosi), and many others.  Not all Democrats were embroiled in the financial scandals like Barney Frank, and not all Republicans were trying as hard has Sean Bielat.

None of MA’s 10 House seats flipped, and all ten remain Democrat.  There were several close calls, though, closer than MA-4 — In fact, the districts along the famous I-495 corridor that gave Scott Brown his margin of victory over Martha Coakley back in January were the ones that came closest to flipping (including MA-4).  Only the Boston urban districts were Democrat blowouts.

Deval Patrick remains Governor.

MICHIGAN

Dedicated to Mike Cox:

GOP flips two seats:  MI-1 (all of the UP and northern parts of the LP), Bart Stupak retired from this seat after his disgraceful treachery in the ObamaCare debate, and MI-7 (south central to southeast LP), where Tim Walberg, bounced out two years ago in the Obamamania, got his old job back.  MI-15 (southeastern corner of the LP) did not flip — That was and still is John Dingell’s seat, the St. Louis-linked cardiologist Dr. Rob Steele giving Dingell probably the closest challenge that any Dingell ever had, even though a 16-point win isn’t that close.  An 8-7 D advantage becomes a 9-6 R advantage.

Measure 10-2, passed by a 3-to-1 margin, prohibits convicted felons from holding certain public offices.  I’m not sure if this stops Dave Bing from putting a convicted murderer on the Detroit Police Board.

MINNESOTA

The media still haven’t called it, but DFLer Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer by 0.5% of the vote, or about 9,000 votes, for Governor.  When it comes to winning close statewide elections in Minnesota, being DFL is nine-tenths of the law — Ask Al Franken.  I will say that Emmer made this a hell of a lot closer than anyone thought.  If Dayton holds on, he’ll be the first DFL candidate to win a Gubernatorial election in the state since 1986.

DFLers sweep the other statewide state government races, but Republicans turn the State House and Senate.  Divided government…even liberal voters like it.

One of the most shocking House flips on a national basis was in MN-8 — Jim Oberstar, 18-term incumbent, and Chairman of the House Transportation Committee, is out.  At the hands of former airline pilot Chip Cravaack.  Oberstar was one of three Committee Chairmen in the House that were toppled last week — Ike Skelton in Missouri was one, and see South Carolina for the other.

Michele Bachmann won her race by a dozen points.  The DCCC and various leftist drone organizations plowed a lot of money into MN-6 to topple her this year, just like they did two years ago.  They failed two years ago, so it would stand to reason that in this red year, they would fail bigger.

MISSISSIPPI

No statewide races.  Republicans get MS-1 back, Roger Wicker’s old seat.  I infamously declared the Republican Party forever dead when the the Democrat toppled last Tuesday, Travis Childers, won an upset win in an early 2008 special election to fill MS-1 after Gov. Barbour sent Wicker across the hall.  They also surprisingly flip MS-4, the gulf coast district.  So the Democrats are back to their gerrymandered black playground of the district in the Delta, as their only member of the state’s House delegation.

Trent Lott has been in the news a lot lately, hatin’ on the TPM and all.  When he resigned his seat in late 2007 in order to become a lobbyist, (resigning just in time before new ethics rules took effect in 2008 which would have prevented him from doing so), I dedicated this song to his political career.  It rings even more true today, considering the sort of Judas he has become:

MONTANA

Yawn.

NEBRASKA

Dave Heineman remains German Chancellor, defeating Mike Meister.

NE’s three House seats remain Republican, as they were before.

Ben “Cornhusker Kickback” Nelson should probably start his looking for another job right now.

NEVADA

I would LOVE to be able to cite voter fraud as the reason for Harry Reid’s pulling this win out of his business.  But I can’t.

There are two statistical pieces of evidence against there being much if any voter fraud:  First, about 720k votes cast for all Senate candidates, and about 717k votes cast for all Gubernatorial candidates.  That’s less than a half percent difference between the two.  Second, the final polls before the election had Sharron Angle four points up on Harry Reid, and Brian Sandoval 20 points up on Rory Reid.  Harry Reid wound up winning by 5, and Sandoval won by 12.  So you have Angle doing 9 points worse and Sandoval doing 8 points worse than the final poll, about the same for both.  That can be explained by the MASSIVE GOTV/ground game that as a combined effort of Vegas and Reno casino owners and casino employees unions, (two words:  Federal felony), that benefited both Reids, enough to put Father over the top.

The explanation with which I am most comfortable to explain why Harry Reid pulled this out?  Seven words:  Them That Got Is Them That Get.

One explanation to explain the Angle-Sandoval difference that you can immediately send to the bullshit file — Hispanics.  There is a rumor going around that Sandoval got 33% of Hispanic voters while Angle only got 8% of them, and of course the open borders lobby in both parties is gloating.  The inconvenient truth is that, according to CNN’s exit polling, while it is true that Sandoval got 33% of the Hispanic vote, Angle got 30% of the same, almost a statistically insignificant difference.

Asians voted 79-19 for Reid over Angle, and while they preferred Rory Reid for Governor, it was only 57-40.  Manny Pacquiao could explain that gap — He is giving himself credit for getting Harry Reid re-elected, because he trolled the Filipino communities in Nevada begging his people to vote for Harry Reid.  But all Asians were only 4% of the Nevada electorate last week, and Filipinos are only a fraction of that.  However, Pacquiao is an elected Congressman in the Philippines, and I’m sure it’s a Federal crime for foreign elected officials to electioneer on American soil during American elections.  Don’t look for Obama’s U.S. Attorney for Las Vegas to prosecute, though.

So now we get down to the bare metal of the hard drive — Why Harry Reid won and Rory Reid lost.  (Even if not for the massive casino owner and union ground game, Sandoval would have won by 20 and Angle by only four — That gap still has to be explained.)  The answer is whites — 21% of Nevada’s white voters (themselves comprising 72% of the electorate), voted for both Sandoval for GOV and Reid for SEN.  Now, I was saying all along that I could ill imagine that there were a lot of people that would vote for one Reid but not the other, but the proof is right there in the pudding that I was wrong, and they did.  The three most probable explanations for that schizophrenic behavior are (1) TTGITTG (see above), and (2) there was still a lot of hurt feelings among Republican primary voters — Don’t forget, while Sharron Angle won that primary, she only won it with only 40% of the vote — Some 60%, or about 105,000, Republican primary voters, voted for either Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, or other lesser known candidates — A portion of those 105,000 people might have voted for Harry Reid out of spite, and (3) The NRA — At first, they endorsed Reid, but member pressure forced them into “neutrality” for outward consumption — But you better believe that with the prospect of Chuck Schumer or Dick Durbin becoming Senate Majority Leader, (the Democrats retaining control of the Senate was the conventional wisdom all along, correct, as it turned out), the NRA did everything behind the scenes to get Reid this victory.  Needless to say, I’m quitting the NRA, though it doesn’t matter — The NRA doesn’t need as much as one dues-paying member — They wouldn’t miss a beat if all their dues-paying members quit.  The reason is that the NRA is not a political organization, it’s a trade organization that engages in politics.  The NRA is not much more than the lobbying arm of the domestic small arms industry — You “join” the NRA whether you want to or not when you purchase a new firearm or ammunition from most well-known domestic manufacturers.  From the shenanigans they pulled in Nevada and also in IL and PA, they’re not getting a dime’s more of dues from me.

Sandoval’s coattails only ran down to Lieutenant Governor.  Democrats swept everything else statewide.

Republicans did flip NV-3 (suburban/exurban Vegas).

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The only bright spot for the Democrats is that Gov. John Lynch held on for a fourth two-year term, though his margin of victory was narrower than expected.

Kelly Ayotte wins SEN, replacing the retiring Naomi Wynona Ashley Judd Gregg.  Both of NH’s U.S. Senators are now women, which puts NH in the same league as ME, WA, and CA.

GOP flips both of the state’s U.S. House seats, which reddens up New England just a bit.  Remember, Democrats made a big deal of the entire New England House delegation being blue after two years ago.

Republicans also take back the State House and Senate, both of which they lost in the 2006 blue wave.

NEW JERSEY

No statewide races.  Only House flip is NJ-3, which was GOP-held until the Obamamania of two years ago.  Not surprising or shocking.  NJ-6 was a long shot at a flip, with the Republican being a local mayor, Anna Little, who lived up (or is that down?) to her name in the vertical department.  It would have taken a political Armageddon nationwide for NJ-6 to flip.

Here’s a name I want you to file in your memory bank for the future:  Kim Guadagno.  She is Chris Christie’s hand picked Lieutenant Governor.  He picked her has his running mate in the race for GOV last year;  She was Monmouth County Sheriff at the time.  Her big bright spot in my mind is immigration — She signed her county’s jail up for 287(g), and even keeps the immigration restriction drum beat up in spite of her boss being amnesty and open borders all the way.  (She’s also quite a looker).  I see her challenging Bob Menendez in 2012 or challenging or replacing Frank Lautenberg in 2014 (or sooner if his age catches up to him).

NEW MEXICO

You gotta kinda feel sorry for Diane Denish to an extent.  First, she was about to slide into GOV because Bill Richardson was going into the Obama cabinet.  Various show-stopping bugs in Richardson’s past stopped that, so he stayed in Santa Fe.  Now that he’s TLed out, she tries to run for GOV in her own right, but loses to Susana Martinez.

This was one of the two woman vs woman races for GOV this year, the other being OK.

Martinez has already said that she would sign an immigration restriction bill, but not one with SB 1070-style strength.  This matches her rhetoric of the past, so it is not a surprise.

Her coattails rode down to flipping SoS and NM-2 (which touches the Mexican border) from D to R, but nothing else.  Republicans thought they had a chance to flip all three of the state’s House seats.

NEW YORK

The outcomes were predictable — Schumer, Gillibrand, Cuomo.  My only disappointment is with the margins, especially the latter.  The CW was that Kirsten Gillibrand was more vulnerable than Charles Schumer, but you’d need an electron microscope to discern the difference, judging from the results.

Another sad tiding from these results is that Eric Schneiderman (D) won AG.  He promised to give Al Sharpton a corner office.

The good news out of the Empire State for the GOP is that they turned five of the state’s 29 House seats — NY-29 (rural SW NYS, Elmira, Olean), NY-24 (middle upstate, Rome, Utica), NY-20 (parts of Albany and most of eastern upstate), NY-19 (distant NYC exurbs, West Point), and NY-13 (Staten Island and a tad of Brooklyn).  13, in spite of it being technically New York City, (though I am told Staten Island is more like New Jersey), was Republican-held until the Obamamania of two years ago.  NY-20 was a mostly Republican district until Kirsten Gillibrand turned it in the blue wave of 2006.  When Gov. Patterson appointed her to take HRC’s place in the Senate, one Scott Murphy, a former aide to several Democrat Missouri Governors, won a very close special election to this seat.  He was turned out last week, returning NY-20 to the GOP.

The GOP could turn another two House seats, NY-1 (far out Long Island), and NY-25 (Syracuse to east of Rochester), if the Republican lead over both Democrat incumbents hold.  That would make seven flips.

NY-23, made famous earlier this year in the special election mania, where Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman narrowly lost to Democrat Bill Owens, did not flip last week.  Owens won it, beating a different Republican (not Dede Scozzafava) narrowly, with Hoffman only drawing 6% on the Cons. Party ticket this time.

New York City mayors will once again have a two-term limit.

NORTH CAROLINA

Richard Burr and Jim DeMint both won their first U.S. Senate terms from The Carolinas on the same day six years ago.  Did you know that back then, doctrinaire conservatives actually held Burr in much higher esteem than DeMint?

This is why I get paid the big bucks — To remember useless and irrelevant shit like this.

As I recall, the only reason conservatives in SC tolerated DeMint is because he was the only credible alternative in the Republican primary for Senate in 2004 against flag traitor former Gov. David Beasley.  As someone from SC told me, “DeMint isn’t much, but at least he’s not Beasley.”  Meanwhile, one state to the north, Burr was a star for turning over the seat that the Breck Girl did hold for one term, after she herself took it away from Lauch Faircloth in 1998.

That’s the way it works out sometimes — When going from college to the pros, some players just come out of nowhere to be better pros than their college careers ever suggested, while some collegiate superstars turn out to be mediocre pros if not total busts.

NC-2 was the only House flip.  The GOP flipped it in 1994′s red wave, the Democrats got it back two years later, and had it ever since.  So the GOP taking it back this year means that the Democrats get it back in 2012, if history is any indication.  Most media outlets have called NC-2 for Renee Elmers, even though there are some shenanigans over a bag full of early voting ballots that, “golly gee,” were just lying around in some closet, and were all found just in the nick of time.  And wouldn’t you know it, they’re virtually all Democrat votes.  A story so stupid that not even the media are buying it.

Blue Dogger Heath Shuler holds onto NC-11 (far western mountain regions and Asheville).  I think Shuler is more genuine in his moderation than most of his now unemployed analogues, and this wasn’t lost on most voters.  But the only thing that worries me about Shuler is this — He’s a former University of Tennessee QB.  And, as Derek Dooley informed us a few months ago, the UT football program had horrible shower discipline until he taught them all how it’s done.  For 2012, someone ought to quiz Shuler about his shower discipline, (or ask other Congressmen who use the House gym), especially since we’re supposed to think Phil Fulmer didn’t care about it.

Republicans take both the State House and Senate, for the first time ever.  Beverly Perdue’s life is about to become a lot harder.

Voters passed a measure that disallows convicted felons from becoming county sheriffs.  There were six convicted felons on the state’s May primary ballot for Sheriff’s positions, and none of them succeeded.  Ironically, convicted felons cannot be sheriff’s deputies.  North Carolina is NOT Detroit.  Just yet.  The only organized opposition came from the Libertarian Party — Now you know why they’ll never get anywhere close to serious power.

NORTH DAKOTA

Gov. John Hoeven flipped the Senate seat from which Democrat Byron Dorgan is retiring, and a Republican took away ND-AL from Earl Pomeroy.

Lt. Gov Jack Darlymple (R) will become GOV when Hoeven goes to Washington.  ND-GOV elections are on Presidential years.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

OHIO

Rob Portman won SEN by 18, but John Kasich only narrowly toppled Ted Strickland for GOV by 3.  Have no explanation for the difference, especially since both are ex-Congressmen, both have been out of Congress for about the same amount of time, both are well in the Republican lamestream, both are free traders, and both had national ambitions that never got far off the ground — Kasich ran for President in 2000 but gave up very early, while Portman was considered a finalist for John McCain’s running mate two years ago.  There is a part of me that would like to think that enough Ohioans remembered that Strickland wanted to block the resettlement of Iraqi refugees into Ohio, but I think that’s lost on most people.  I didn’t look at any of the OH media buys on YT, so maybe Strickland had some unusually good ones.  Or maybe it was the power of incumbency — Unlike Portman, who was running to replace a retiring Republican (Voinovich), John Kasich had to topple a sitting Governor.

GOP turns five House seats.  A 10-8 D advantage before becomes a 13-5 R advantage now.  The flips were OH-1 (Cincinnati), where Steve Chabot got his old job back after losing it in the Obamamania of two years ago, in spite of the Cincinnati Public School system sending theoretically grown men and women on field trips to vote absentee and get ice cream afterward.  OH-6, mainly along the Ohio River bordering WV and a part of PA, which is Ted Strickland’s old district before winning GOV in 2006 — Strickland held it from 1992 to 2006, save the one term after the red wave of 1994.   OH-15, Columbus to the west.  OH-16, mainly Canton and rural areas between Cleveland and Columbus.  OH-18, a big swath of east central Ohio.

Democrat holds include OH-9, mainly lakefront from Toledo almost over to Cleveland, where Marcy Kaptur held off Rich “Nazi Uniform” Iott, in spite of some thug murdering three of her voters.  OH-13, that being Betty Sutton — Her name came up in a laudatory sense, in that famous LeBron James gun grabber mailer a week or so before the election.  OH-17, Akron to the east, where Jim Traficant got only 16% of the vote as an Indy candidate.  OH-10 (Cleveland), Dennis Kucinich won, but the Republican came within 9 points.  Now that he has fended off that challenge, Kucinich’s next move will be to run for President in 2012 on the Rent Is Too Damn High Party.

The only House seats that Democrats will now have in Ohio are in the north and east parts of the state, in and around Cleveland.

Republicans swept every other statewide office downballot — Unfortunately, this also includes Mike DeWine for AG.  (Damn it, sonofabitch, g*ddamnit.)  Man, I tell you, these RINOs won’t stay dead for long, will they?  DeWine was the other intended beneficiary of the LeBron James anti-gun mailer.  If you remember, Sherrod Brown bounced DeWine out of the Senate four years ago.  But now he’s back.  Fortunately, the Republican sweep includes SoS, and that’s good for 2012, as Obama’s re-election team has a bullseye on Ohio.  A Republican SoS should preclude a lot of voter fraud.

OKLAHOMA

Mary Fallin, Tom Coburn.  No surprises.  OK had one of the two woman vs woman races for GOV (neighboring NM being the other).  Republicans win all statewide elections, turning several away from Democrats in the process.

As you read in the preview, I am not a fan of Mary Fallin.  She smells too much like Frank Keating, and Keating, as you know, being ex-FBI, had a big hand in the OKC Bombing cover-up.

I don’t know what to think about Tom Coburn anymore.  He’s like one of those cards that have different images depending on your angle of view — Coburn can look like Jim DeMint or Mitch McConnell depending on the day.

No House flips.  Remains 4-1 R.  The only D is Dan Boren in OK-2, the rural eastern part of the state.  Republicans thought they could turn it, but Boren, son of former Sen. David Boren, won fairly handily.

The inits/refs were were all the action was in OK — 65% against ObamaCare insurance mandate, 74% for photo ID for voters, 75% for official English, 70% against state courts using international and Sha’ria Law.  A Clinton-appointed black woman Federal judge has already enjoined the latter temporarily, but it’ll likely have no problems in the Federal judiciary otherwise — Oklahoma isn’t in the 9th Circus.

OREGON

Too much Ron Wyden gravy spilled down onto John Kitzhaber’s plate.  That’s why Chris Dudley didn’t win GOV, pure and simple.

Democrats retain a 4-1 advantage in the U.S. House — No party flips.  OR-2, almost all the eastern three-fourths of the state, remains the only red district.

Among the ballot measures were no to medical weed and no to a casino in Portland.

PENNSYLVANIA

Tom Corbett won GOV by 9, while Pat Toomey only won SEN by 2.  Unlike a similar but reverse dichotomy in OH, I can explain this with two words:  Free Trade.  To be more specific, Pat Toomey’s free trade record, which almost cost him this election.  Joe Sestak’s final TV buy, which I saw on one of the cable news channels but can’t find on YT, just ripped Toomey to shreds over free trade and outsourcing (which aren’t unrelated, BTW.)  It was exactly the kind of ad I’d write and produce for someone in Sestak’s situation — It was that good.

Lou Barletta finally punches it through in PA-11 on this his third try.  He had no excuses this time around.  About the only monkey wrench in Barletta’s path was the NRA, which endorsed Paul Kanjorski.  Luckily, the NRA members in PA-11 weren’t biting.

Other House flips were PA-3 (Erie and northern Pittsburgh exurbs), PA-7 (South Philly suburbs, Sestak’s district), PA-8 (north Philly suburbs), and PA-10 (northeastern PA, the district to the north of Barletta’s.)

PA-12, Jack Murtha’s old district, remains Democrat, though barely.  Bill Shuster holds PA-9 for the GOP — He is Bud Shuster’s son, who held that area in Congress for a long time.  Next up on Bill Shuster’s agenda:  Interstate 999.

Republicans flip both the State House and Senate.  PA will probably lose one or more House seats next year, and Republicans will totally run redistricting.

RHODE ISLAND

If you didn’t believe in reincarnation before, Rhode Island 2010 will make you believe in it now.

It was thought that it was essentially a two-way race between Lincoln Chafee (I) and Frank Caprio (D) for GOV, with John Robitaille (R) expected to finish in a distant third due to too much Carcieri stench.  Turns out that Caprio had a late fall and Robitaille had a late surge.  But Lincoln Chafee, former RINO Senator, bounced out a mere four years ago, is now back in politics as the next Governor of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations (the full name remains, with 78% in favor), as an Indy, albeit with under 40% of the vote.

No House flips, still 2-0 Democrat, Democrats win everything else downballot statewide.  It’s a blue state, after all.

SOUTH CAROLINA

I was totally unsurprised that it took so long for the media to declare SC-GOV for Nimrata Randhawa.  And the media weren’t playing games — They couldn’t call it so soon because the result was so close.  Meanwhile, they could call SEN for Jim DeMint one second after the polls closed in SC.  Why DeMint won so big and Randhawa so narrowly, is your guess, though I imagine you only need one.

Republicans swept everything else statewide downballot.

One of Pelosi’s three committee chairmen to lose last week was John Spratt in SC-5 (northern part of the state, southern Charlotte suburbs) — Spratt was the head of the Budget Committee, and Vice-Chairman of the Armed Services Committee — The latter is ironic because its chair, Ike Skelton, also went down in MO-4.  SC-5 had been Democrat for a very long time, but it finally succumbed to the reddening of the state in general this year.

Don’t say anything about SC-1.  Not interested in SC-1.

Alvin Greene did finish with 28% of the vote.  He was able to finish that high for the same reason he won the Democrat Primary to begin with.  If you don’t know by now what that reason is, then your oxygen consumption privileges are hereby revoked.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Norway beat Denmark for GOV.  John Thune was unopposed for SEN.  Red sweep downballot statewide.

The biggest news out of SD was the babe-a-licious Kristi Noem, who raised an unusually high number of dollars for her war chest for a Congressional seat that encompasses the whole state and is in the middle of nowhere, (that news made the front of the Drudge Report several weeks ago), was able to flip SD-AL from one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.  Boehner is going to create a leadership position for House Freshmen, and Noem will probably win it.  Even though she was Assistant Majority Leader of the SD State House, she had to beat two people with better name rec than she, one of whom was the Secretary of State, in order to win the Republican Primary.  She lives in a town which once elected an 18-year old as Mayor.  It is said that she is a fast rising star, and that’s also a metaphor for her lead foot behind the wheel — Then again, it’s South Dakota — Pretty easy to speed.  If you’re deciding between “hot” or “not,” then “not” is not an option.  If you’re thinking of a number between 1 and 10, then Numbers 1 through 7 are grayed out.

She has already proven she can win a statewide election.  Tim Johnson should be very very worried — He’s up in 2014.

TENNESSEE

Bill Haslam wins Governor in a blowout.  He won every county save Davidson (Nashville), Shelby (Memphis) and a few spotty majority or heavily black counties in West Tennessee.  Interestingly, he got almost the same percentage in Williamson County (south suburban Nashville), at 80%, as he did in his home county of Knox, 81%.  Williamson has been figured to be the wealthiest county in American when cost of living is taken into account.

I get some blowback from TN people on Twitter when I predict this, but I’m going to stick to my biceps on this one:  Haslam will push for an income tax.  If he doesn’t, then Tennesseein’ will be Tennbelievin’.  They do agree with me that Haslam suffers from a paucity of core principles.

GOP flips three of the nine House seats:  TN-4 (south central and east central parts of the state), TN-6 (eastern suburbs and exurbs of Nashville) and TN-8 (northwestern parts of the state and northern Memphis suburbs).  This means that a 5-4 Democrat advantage before will become a 7-2 Republican advantage in the TN Congressional delegation.  TN seeks to gain a seat after reapportionment.  Both houses of the TN state legislature will be Republican-run, meaning that TN has a wholly Republican-run state government “legitimately elected” for the first time ever.  (No, I don’t count reconstruction-era Republican elected officials in the South as legitimate, because most whites weren’t allowed to vote.)  I’m sure they’ll find a way to cut the state up in ten equally populated pieces to engineer a Republican majority until Kingdom Come.

TEXAS

I can forgive you for not knowing this, but there was once a time when the Democrat Party was the only political party in Texas that mattered.

House flips are TX-17, TX-23 and very likely TX-27, the latter two are border districts, (23 comprising a whole lot of border), the former two won by Hispanics, though TX-17 is in the middle of the state, and includes Waco and College Station.  If TX-27 holds, then three border-straddling Congressional districts comprising of a huge fraction, perhaps almost half, of the entirety of the U.S.-Mexico border, will have flipped.  (NM-2 being the one outside of Texas.)  A Hispanic took TX-23 from another Hispanic, and a lot of Hispanic voters had to have voted for Republicans in all the border districts that flipped.  AZ-7 and AZ-8 almost did flip.  And they say immigration restriction is a loser.  As an aside, about a third of Hispanics in the U.S. House will be Republicans, which is close to the % of Hispanics that voted for Republicans in all races on average last week.

TX-14.  Well, that’s obvious.  Methinks the incumbent wasn’t so concerned about his own victory last Tuesday night :)  That had to be an awesome rush — Something to make an old man feel you…er, middle aged, once again :)  Since Ron Paul is an OB/GYN, he probably had a big hand (pun intended) in bringing all his children into this world — Forty-seven years after safely guiding his second son out of the unmentionable place, he sees him go to the United States Senate.  Ron Paul actually tried to run for TX-SEN in 1984, but lost to Phil Gramm in the primary.  That election season was the first that Rand Paul was seriously engaged in the process on behalf of his father.  Father in the House and Son in the Senate is a first in American political history.  There have been a few instances of vice-versa.

UTAH

Orrin Hatch was watching really closely.  There are rumors that he will just plain retire rather than get the Bob Bennett treatment in two years.

Jim Matheson must have something going in order to have kept UT-2 as a Democrat in a year like this an in a state like his.

VERMONT

Dubie Dubie don’t.  One of four D to R flips in GOV this year.

VIRGINIA

Nothing statewide.  House flips were VA-2 (Norfolk area and VA’s part of the Delmarva peninsula, meaning that the entire U.S. House delegation from the land mass of the Delmarva Peninsula switched parties), VA-5 (South Central, Virgil Goode’s old district), and VA-9 (far western mountain areas) — I thought that when the media declared VA-9 a flip, that NC-11 (Shuler) could also flip, because they’re similar in geography, topography, demographics and in the general nature of the body politic.  Alas, no.

The Rs hoped to flip VA-11, near D.C., and they almost did.  But almost doesn’t count.

Krystal Ball apparently does not own one.  Otherwise, she would have known that it was a waste of time to try to turn out an incumbent Republican on a red day in VA-1.

WASHINGTON STATE

Dino Rossi should just hang up his cleats now.  From this point forward, any future campaigns of his will be interpreted as the quixotic motions of a perennial candidate.

Maybe he might have won if the dumbass RSCC would have given him some real money, instead of wasting it on Carly H-1Borina.

Republicans did flip WA-3 (southwestern parts of the state, Vancouver, Centralia, Olympia).  It will be the only red district on the west coast that actually touches the coast outside of SoCal.

WEST VIRGINIA

Don’t be surprised if Joe Manchin runs for re-election to the Senate in 2012 as a Republican.  I got that premonition when he had to run such a conservative campaign to beat John Raese, and should he join a Republican filibuster to defeat cap-and-trade in the lame duck session, as he promised he would do, Senate Democrats will disown him.  At that point, watch for McConnell et al. to prepare a gift basket, if not for him to change parties right away, then at least for him to run for re-election as a Republican.

Republicans wanted to flip the two House districts that Dems currently hold, WV-1 and WV-3, but they were only able to flip WV-1.  They already had and kept WV-2.

Earl Ray Tomblin, the current President of the WV Senate, a Democrat, becomes Governor once Manchin leaves town.

WISCONSIN

This state symbolized how big of a wipeout this was for Democrats.

Sure, there have been Republican Governors before in WI, but almost none have been so openly conservative as Scott Walker.  And it has been a long time since WI had a Republican U.S. Senator.  Ron Johnson taking out Russ Feingold is not to be underestimated — Like I said in the preview, Ron Johnson would have been a joke any other year.  This year, he wins.  Six years ago, the Republican running against Feingold was almost a carbon copy of Johnson, in terms of his business career, life history, age, demeanor, positions, etc., and Feingold beats him by 11.  Now, Johnson topples Feingold by 5.

Wisconsin’s gonna get a carry bill in 2011.  But oh no, not Illinois.

Johnson is a Wisconsin Synod Lutheran, which is a denomination that most people, even most Lutherans, don’t even know exists.  Michele Bachmann, from a state where ELCA dominates the Lutheran community, and the state’s religious scene as a whole, is also WI Synod.

A 5-3 D advantage in the House becomes a 5-3 R advantage due to two flips — WI-7 (Superior, northwestern), from which David Love Honor & Obey, who ran the House Appropriations Committee, retired this year (now we know why), meaning that a fourth committee chairman under Pelosi could have been toppled, and WI-8 (Green Bay etc.)  What’s strange about WI-7 is that both Tom Barrett and Feingold won most of the counties in it for GOV and SEN, yet it was a Congressional party flip.

J.B. Van Hollen, a Republican who comported himself well on the immigration issue in the last few years, who would have been a total shoo-in for GOV had he run, remains AG.  Democrats retain SoS, crucial for Obama’s prospects to keep WI blue for 2012.  GOP flips Treasurer.

WYOMING

All red.  And I don’t mean Gloria Allred, or Keith Allred (loser) in neighboring Idaho.

Libertarians do rather well in GOV, WY-AL and SoS.  But the SoS winner, incumbent Republican Max Maxfield, can now go on to his next order of business — Hiring new staff members, including David Davids, Clint Clinton, Greg Gregory, Will Williams, Mary Maries and Mohammed El-Mohammed.

When you start seeing more WY license plates than HI plates in the St. Louis area, then I’ll start caring about Wyoming politics a little more.  (Come to think of it, I don’t much care about Hawaii politics, either.)

THE END.