2012 Missouri Primaries Preview

22 07 2012

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

I can’t be as comprehensive now as I have been in the past with my primary previews.  I don’t have the time to break down every schlub race for dog catcher.

For your edification, here are the maps of the new Congressional districts, State Senate districts and State House districts.  I should warn you that only the Congressional districts are guaranteed to be true.  The process to redraw the General Assembly districts was more difficult than redrawing the Congressional districts, even though Missouri lost a U.S. House seat, and the number of State House and Senate seats are constitutionally fixed.  This is why the State Senate and House maps have a disclaimer.  I didn’t pay attention to the General Assembly redistricting news as keenly as I should have.  But I do know that St. Louis City no longer has the population to have two exclusive Senate districts — S-5 (see below) is the only Senate district wholly in the city.  Also, my St. Louis County voter registration card has me living in S-15 and H-100, and the “non-final” maps bear that out.  If I can find guaranteed maps of the State House and Senate, I’ll change the links above.

U.S. SENATE, REPUBLICAN

Seriously.  If you don’t know what I would say here, then you haven’t been paying attention to this blog all spring and summer.

U.S. HOUSE, CD-2, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Ann Wagner vs a bunch of nobodies

Recommendation:  None of the above

Prediction:  Wagner

Analysis:  Am I scratchin’ my head?  You betcha.

I would have expected a Republican-leaning Congressional district coming open to result in a conga line of credible Republican candidates coming out of the woodwork.  When Jim Talent abandoned CD-2 to run for Governor in 2000, that’s exactly what happened.  In the end, Todd Akin (hint) and former County Executive Gene McNary (see below) separated themselves from the pack, and Akin beat McNary by a nose.

Now that Akin is abandoning CD-2 to run for Senate (hint), I would have expected another free-for-all.  But no, the only credible candidate is Ann Wagner.  If you pay attention to national Republican politics, you will recall that she was one of five finalists for RNC Chair last year, Rinse Pree-Bus from Wisconsin eventually won the job.  And no, I don’t count Ed Martin’s temporary candidacy to be credible — I’ll get to his crazy ass later.

Why has everyone in CD-2 Republican affairs laid down for Ann Wagner?  Does she have a big file cabinet full of compromising photos?  Hell, I can’t even glean any credible gossip to answer my own question.  And I don’t think this is a coincidence:  Sometimes dogs refuse to bark because there’s nothing at which to bark, and sometimes, dogs don’t bark because the murderer is kin.  I think the lack of a crowded field in this race is better explained by the latter.

There are three nobodies on the ballot, one of them has radio buys.  But I wouldn’t vote for any of them, because the one running radio ads is most acutely worried about Iran.  Incidentally, that particular candidate has been on the city councils of two different cities, one is Webster Groves and the other being a Cleveland suburb.  One of the other nobodies “proudly stands with Israel.”  Gag puke.  The third nobody is just there, taking up space on the ballot and in general.

This is my CD, so I will not be casting a vote in this race.  Doesn’t matter, Ann Wagner is as good as in Congress.  The Democrats in the other primary are all tokens.  That’s actually relevant analysis for what you’re about to read.

U.S. HOUSE, CD-1, DEMOCRAT

Race:  Lazy Clay vs Russ Carnahan

Recommendation:  None of the above

Prediction:  Clay

Analysis:  This is what comes of redistricting.  When the Republicans gained a veto-proof majority in the State Senate and almost that in the State House in November 2010, it was perfectly obvious that Carnahan would be standing when the music stopped, and even then, it was clear even then that Missouri was going to lose a Congressional seat.  I don’t need to go over that bit of recent history any further than that.

Carnahan toyed with running as a Democrat in CD-2, which would have necessitated him moving into the district, as his current South City home is, like all of the city now, in CD-1, but like I said in my analysis of the new House map, CD-2 could only turn blue in a very steep blue wave election year, and this will not be one of those years.  A clue to that is that none of the Democrats in CD-2-D are credible.  Therefore, Carnahan’s only chance to stay in Congress is to challenge Clay in CD-1-D, mainly based on Dave Drebes’s delusional (and suddenly racially-minded) analysis.

But we don’t need to play our hunch.  Just look at what happened in IL-2-D several months ago.  Same deal, only the players were Jesse Jackson Jr and Debbie Halvorson.  Mr. Mood Disorder won in a landslide.  And so it will be here.

U.S. HOUSE, CD-5, REPUBLICAN

Like I said after the redistricting, Beaver Cleaver and the Kansas City-area NAACP were as pleased as punch with the new CD-5, but I don’t see why.  A really tall red wave could knock Cleaver over.

A hint pointing to that is that Jerry Nolte, TLed out of H-33, a Northside Kansas City district, is running in the Republican Primary for CD-5, against three nobodies, one of whom is named “Ron Paul Shawd.”  Now, one could say that he’s TLed out anyway, so he has a free pass to try his hand.  But under the former CD-5 configuration, no Republican elected to anything would have bothered even trying.  Nolte probably smells a little bit of blood in the water, for good reason.

GOVERNOR, REPUBLICAN

Race:  A bunch of nobodies

Recommendation:  Fred Sauer

Prediction:  Dave Spence

Analysis:  Peter Kindercare (see below) backing out of the race after the bimbo eruption pretty much cinched a second term for Jay Nixon.  The Republicans who ran in Kindercare’s absence are all noobs to electoral politics.  Dave Spence, who is successful in some business, has a nice war chest courtesy of himself, so he’ll win this primary and maybe give Nixon a little scare in the fall.  But Nixon beat Kenny Hulshof by 19 points in a year and state when McCain eked out a win vs Obama, and that mountain is just too high and steep for Spence to climb all the way, even with the state already being colored red in Presidential terms.

I don’t know who Spence has endorsed in the Senate race, but I get the feeling that John Brunner is a good leading indicator for himself.

I originally didn’t give an endorsement in this race, but Phyllis Schlafly endorsed Fred Sauer on the same day she endorsed Todd Akin for Senate (hint hint hint hint hint).  If Sauer is good enough for a woman who worked her way through law school by being a civilian tester of ammunition for the military, then he’s good enough for me.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Peter Kindercare vs Brad Lager-Don’t-Call-Me-Ale

Recommendation:  Lager

Prediction:  Kindercare

Analysis:  I’m voting for anyone credible against Kindercare, and I don’t care about Lager’s “issues.”  That’s because Kindercare is a two-word phrase, the second word in that phrase is “lover,” and yes, the first word is a racial slur.

I think Lager is only running because he thought Kindercare was running for Governor, and I guess he didn’t back out once Kindercare gave that up after the bimbo eruption and came back to try for a third term as Lieutenant Governor.  Lager, if you remember, is the sitting State Senator who was the Republican nominee for Treasurer four years ago.  I’m glad he’s back so I can continue making alcoholic puns on his name.

Unfortunately, the truth will get lost in the noise that comes of the Rush Limbaugh narrated Kindercare media buys.  That’s why Kindercare wins easily.

Missouri is one of the few states where the Governor and Lieutenant Governor are discrete public offices.  Most states do like the Presidential race, the party nominee picks a running mate.  Illinois has discrete primaries and conjoined general, in that there are separate partisan primaries for Governor and Lt. Gov, but the party winners are legally hooked up as a ticket in the fall.  There is talk about changing Missouri to the system that most states use.

SECRETARY OF STATE, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Scott Rupp vs Shane Schoeller

Recommendation:  Schoeller

Prediction:  Rupp

Analysis:  Mrs. Antolinez will find happiness elsewhere, so SoS is wide open.

Rupp is a State Senator from St. Charles County, and Schoeller is a State Rep from near Springfield.  Both are for voter photo ID, so one is probably as good as the other.  Rupp seems to have enough steam behind him to win, so that’s why I would vote Schoeller anyway.  Schoeller’s media buys seem to be aggressively conservative, and I have not yet seen or heard a Rupp media buy, so that’s another reason I’m voting Schoeller.

STATE TREASURER

The only Republican in the race is State Rep. Cole McNary, from Chesterfield, son of the aforementioned Gene McNary.  The only Democrat in the that primary is incumbent Treasurer Clint Zweifel.  November is set.

ATTORNEY GENERAL, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Ed Martin vs Adam Lee Warren

Recommendation:  Warren

Prediction:  Probably Martin

Analysis:  About the only office Ed Martin didn’t think about running for this season was Pope.  He finally settled on State AG.

He has all the emotional stability of a Kardashian, so that’s why I’m voting for the other guy, even if all the other guy has is a pulse.  And the other guy is the sitting Circuit Attorney for Livingston County, in the rural northern part of the state.

Martin will probably win because, after all, he did come as close as any Republican ever did in the about-to-be extinct configuration of CD-3.  But in turn, I doubt Democrat Incumbent Chris Koster would have much trouble in the fall.

STATE SENATE, 1-D

Is Sue Schoemehl any relation to former St. Louis Mayor Vince Schoemehl?

STATE SENATE, 5-D

I’ve been talking a little about this through the summer.

I think Jeanette Mott Oxford can pull it off.  Three reasons:  One, Jamilah Nasheed got to stay on the ballot, so this means there are two credible blacks.  Two, all the “right” people and groups are endorsing JMO.  Three, the incumbent from the old configuration of S-5, who is one of the three credible contenders and one of the two credible blacks, Robin Wright Jones, is apparently held in low esteem.

It doesn’t matter who wins, because they’ll have the same voting record anyway, all liberal all the time.

UPDATE 8/6:  I originally had no preference, but I’m going to recommend a vote for Nasheed, because mailers in the district are criticizing her for her votes for CCW and SYG.

STATE SENATE, 15-R

My home district.  Incumbent Eric Schmidt is unopposed both in the primary and in the general.

STATE HOUSE, 100-R

My home district.  Sue Allen is unopposed in both the primary and the general.

I’m not going to do any other State House districts, because I don’t exactly have all the time in the world.  If you want my opinion about one, ask.  The odd numbered State Senate seats are up this year.

STATE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 2

Issue:  This basically adopts in the State Constitution the language of the First Amendment about religious faith.

Recommendation:  Yes

Prediction:  Yes

Analysis:  None needed

ST. LOUIS CITY CIRCUIT ATTORNEY, DEMOCRAT

Just our luck.  This is the first time Jennifer Joyce faces a public election since the Truth Squader scandal hit, and she’s unopposed.  Goddamnit.

ST. LOUIS CITY TREASURER, DEMOCRAT

Race:  Jefferey Boyd, Tishaura Jones, Brian Wahby, Fred Wessels

Recommendation:  Wessels

Prediction:  Wessels

Analysis:  Remember one of my house tours?  You’ll find a house there whose inhabitants are Wessels voters.

All four candidates are credible, two are black, one is something, and Wessels is white.  Two blacks splitting the black vote probably results in a Wessels win.  That and he has a lot of endorsement steam.

Larry Williams finally found something better to do than to be City Treasurer after all these years.  We’ll miss him…unless we won’t.  Nothing ever became his public service like the leaving of it.

ST. LOUIS CITY SHERIFF, DEMOCRAT

Jim Murphy was not caught in bed with a kid at any point in the last four years, so he’ll win easily.

JEFFERSON COUNTY SHERIFF, REPUBLICAN

Four Republicans.  Pick one.  I will highly recommend the winner over Glenn Boyer, one of the other Truth Squaders.

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3 responses

6 08 2012
Jamilah Nasheed For S-5-D « Countenance Blog

[...] originally made no endorsement in the preview of tomorrow’s primaries.  But I’m going to recommend a vote for Jamilah Nasheed.  People who live in the district [...]

7 08 2012
It’s Todd Akin Time « Countenance Blog

[...] I’m blogging early.  But I’ll be soon out the door to vote for Akin and all my other preferred candidates, then head to an undisclosed polling place somewhere in the metro area to greet voters and hand out [...]

8 08 2012
2012 Missouri Primaries in Review « Countenance Blog

[...] Compare to my preview. [...]




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