2012 General Election in Review, National Edition

25 11 2012

“Gee, only 19 days after the election.  Why are you in such a hurry, Blogmeister?”

Before I do the state-by-state roll call, here are some interesting maps.  The first one is the county Presidential results map, the second one is a map of counties where Romney beat Obama or vice-versa by at least 20 points (“landslide map”), the third is the Red Delta map of 2012 over 2008, the fourth is the Blue Delta map of 2012 over 2008, (mainly black voters in the black belt South), and the fifth is the Red Delta map of 2012 over 2004, i.e. comparing the year Obama won re-election to the year Bush won re-election.

ALABAMA

Had the second highest white vote percentage for Romney of all states, 84%.  An anti-ObamaCare proposition won easily, and only lost the black belt counties.

ALASKA

Of course Romney won Alaska, but Alaska had one of the biggest reverse “blue” swing in 2012 compared to 2008.  But that is easily explainable because Alaskans had a big incentive to turn out and vote McCain in 2008.

ARIZONA

I don’t know what kind of dope the Democrats were smoking to think that Obama ever had a chance to win the state, after the SB 1070 fiasco.  Romney did better versus Obama than even Arizona’s own John McCain did against Obama.  Arizona has a big Mormon population.

Congressman Jeff Flake will succeed Jon Kyl in the Senate.

A disabled (?) recent Air Force combat veteran in the person of Martha McSally, running as a Republican, almost picked off Gabby Giffords’s old House seat.

In other news, Jan Brewer thinks there’s a way she can legally run for another term as Governor in 2014.  She should have been Romney’s running mate this year.

ARKANSAS

Bill Clinton’s home state:  Romney won by 23 points, all four House seats are Republican.  However, there wasn’t much of a red swing in 2012 over 2008 in Arkansas, because Arkansas was one of the few states that went the other way in 2008 compared to 2004.

Remember when Democrats used to win this state easily?

Of course, I’m not thrilled with many of the open borders cheap labor lobby Republicans that come out of Arkansas.

A medical weed liberalization proposal lost narrowly.

CALIFORNIA LOL

There was a little bit of a red swing toward Republicans over 2008.  Likewise, someone drained the Pacific Ocean of a cup of water.

Dianne Feinstein didn’t spend really dime one…because she didn’t have to.  After Democrats did well in California in the red wave election cycle of two years ago, it became perfectly obvious that Democrats don’t need to sweat.  Solyndra was basically a smokescreen for the Federal government funding the California Democrat Party to make sure that a potential (and as it turns out, a real) red wave in the middle of Obama’s first term didn’t affect California Democrats.  Turns out they need not have worried.

The real action in the state was on the proposition level:  Statewide Prop 30 and Los Angeles County Prop B, both of which won.

Prop 30 takes the top marginal state income tax rate up to 13.3%, bumps the state sales tax up a quarter percent, as well as a bunch of other new taxes.  Of course the proponents hid behind a school house, but the real drivers for the proponents were three things:  One, Hispanic gibsmedat welfare, Two, the salary, benefits and retirement packages of public employees, and three, Wall Street.

I have a secret squirrel source that is a teacher in a certain large school district in Southern California.  She tells me that until Prop 30 passed, she had a lot of furlough days, and what those are is that you have to come to work but you don’t get paid for working.  Insto, chango, right after Prop 30 passed, the superintendent and the head of the teachers union said that most or all of the furlough days are gone, good news for the teachers.  That goes to show you how magical is the power of the taxes levied by the passage of Prop 30 — They’re bringing in so much revenue before they can even be levied and collected that teachers can now get full paychecks right away.  Or, a more practical and accurate explanation is that the public school administrators and the leaders of teachers unions and politicians colluded to enact these furlough days as a scare-mongering tactic.

It’s easy to see that Prop 30 will bring in disappointingly little revenue.  But…now that the California legislature is supermajority Democrat, it’s full taxation ahead.  And also…feet don’t fail me now as the last productive industries leave California, either on foot, or as the tech industry has, on paper, even though they’re still literally perched on California soil.

And that leads me to L.A. County Prop B.  Almost all of the commerical porn produced in the United States is produced and filmed in the San Fernando Valley.  Prop B is the condom for porn actors proposition.  Already, the porn industry is promising to uproot and move to Vegas.  And I don’t blame them:  Who wants every Bush Doctrine or Stimulus Package or Pubic Option or Top One Percenter flick to be nothing more than a PSA for condom usage?  Anyone old enough to watch a porno and know what’s going on knows what a condom is and the value of their employment.

COLORADO

Thanks to both Hispanic immigration and leftist internal migration, combined 2010’s results from Colorado with 2012’s, and we may have lost Colorado for good.

Mike Coffman, who holds Tom Tancredo’s old House seat, won re-election, but not by a huge margin.

CO-7:  Anyone named Coors should just give up on politics.

A weed proposition won easily, and I think this is legalizing small amounts, nothing to do with medicinal imprimatur.  I find it interesting that it got 80k more votes than Obama in the state.  Maybe there’s a little bit of electoral hay for Republicans to be had in backing off (even if not fully legalizing) weed.

CONNECTICUT

Yawn.

Why won’t the RINOs bitching about Todd and Mourdock tell you that moderate-liberal Republican Linda McMahon has lost two Senate elections in a row in a blue state?

DELAWARE

Delawho?

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

The Politico breakdown shows that there is “No House Race in 2012″ or “No Senate Race in 2012″ for the District of Columbia.  Let’s hope it stays that way.

The only compromise in that stead I’d be open to is the David Wheeler proposal:  That a Federal district be treated as if it is part of the state that ceded it for the purpose of Federal Congressional elections.  Which means the current Washington DC residents are counted as Maryland residents for voting for U.S. Senate, and be counted as them for apportioning and voting on U.S. House members.  Of course, what Maryland has become politically, big whoop.  As Maryland is currently constituted, Democrats will always win Senate anyway.  Add more Democrats and guess what you get.

FLORIDA

Obama eked the state out because the crucial swing coorridor along Interstate 4 is becoming more and more Hispanic, especially Puerto Rican.

Connie Mack IV’s margin of loss to the incumbent Democrat he was facing for the Senate was almost as large as Todd Akin’s loss to Claire McCaskill.  Yet, no barnacles are bitching about Mack.

Let me deal with him for a moment.  Yes, him.  I wish the dark-colored dickhead would quit bitching and exit public life gracefully.  True, fraud might have sunk him, but it sunk a lot of people.  And as far as gerrymandering, yes, the Republicans in the Florida legislature that ran redistricting did happen to make life harder for him, but they didn’t set out to do that just because they had some personal axe to grind against him.  They set out to divide the state of Florida into 27 sections of approximately equal population that would be the most likely to generate the most possible Republicans in the U.S. House from Florida for the next decade.  A lot of other state legislatures did the same, based on the massive red wave on the state legislative level in 2010 meaning that a lot of Republicans ran a lot of Congressional redistricting schmes in a lot of states —  Turns out that Republicans should thank God that they did, because that was the firewall that saved the U.S. House for the Republicans in what turned out to be a mild blue wave of Obama gibsmedat non-white voters pouring out in droves to save their black President and/or their gibsmedat welfare.  While that turnout affected the Senate, because Senate elections like Presidential elections are also statewide elections, it hurt House Republicans very little because the gibsmedat herd is caged up gerrymandered in safe blue Congressional districts.  Florida’s 27 House members are 17 Republicans 10 Democrats, so the firewall worked in the case of Florida.

Now, we’ll see what the dark-colored dickhead is truly made of, whether his “conservatism” was just a play act or for real.  If he gets the notion that Republicans stabbed him in the back, he’ll go on a tirade against Republicans and conservatives, and slowly nudge back to being a standard black Democrat leftist.  For the record, I think most black conservatives are play acting, because regular black liberal Democrats have to wait in line and pay dues for a long time before they truly become someone important, while black “conservatives” get shoved to the front of the line in the Republican Party.  Fake a little bit of “conservatism,” and you get to be almost an instant celebrity.

Back to the Presidency, what happened in Florida in the general election is almost a mirror opposite of what happened in Florida during the Republican Presidential Primary.  Romney won the “liberal” counties and Newt won the “cracker” counties in the Primary, while in the general, Obama won the liberal counties and Romney won the cracker counties.  Read this.

You’ll essentially read this same analysis when I get to Ohio.

GEORGIA

They grow peaches.

Republican gains in the state legislature might well make the North Fulton/South Fulton county split a reality in the next two years.

HAWAII

Dear Karl Roverrated:  Commit the following name to memory:

Linda Lingle.

IDAHO

They grow potatoes.

And I wish Raul Labrador would get some serious opposition.

ILLINOIS

I already covered Illinois in my local review, but I’ll add that because the state legislature was Democrat dominated in 2011, they were able to engineer a Democrat-friendly Congressional map that essentially wiped out Republican gains on the Congressional level in Illinois in 2010.  That unfortunately includes Joe Walsh, and not so unfortunately includes most of the territory that was Mark Kirk’s former House seat.

INDIANA

Only one of two states that Romney was able to flip outright.

Mike Pence did win Governor, but with less than a majority.  I think a little bit of the Mourdock mess spilled one spot down on the ballot to keep Pence’s margin of victory down, and less than Romney’s margin of victory over Obama.  But a win’s a win, and now Pence is a credible 2016 Presidential candidate.

IOWA

Steve King did beat back a strong challenge from the wife (?) of the current Obama Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack by a healthy margin.  It’s the power of the immigration issue.

KANSAS

File this name away for future reference, because I think he’s primed for some good things in the future:  Tim Huelskamp.

Also, remind me later, as part of my “Spilling the Beans” series, to tell you exactly how I know what I know about what turned out to be Mitt Romney pantsing Kris Kobach.

KENTUCKY

Only big news is that the Republicans were able to flip the central part of the state district that includes Lexington, which they weren’t able to do even two years ago with the same names on the ballot.

I’ve been saying all over that Rand Paul is neither running for President in 2016 nor re-election to the Senate, that he’s grooming newly-elected Congressman Thomas Massie (KY-4) to replace him in the Senate in 2016.  (As an aside Massie won two elections in that district on November 6, one to fill the remainder of Geoff Davis’s term who resigned for health reasons, and again for the new two-year term.  Massie goes to Congress right away, and can vote in the upcoming lame duck session.)  Now with all this talk that Rand is running for President in 2016, (not making the not running for Senate in 2016 any less true), based on what I know I knew, I wonder what has changed.  I think what’s changed is that Romney didn’t win — Rand expected to support the Romney/Ryan ticket for re-election in 2016.  Projecting out, yes, risky to do, if there is no Mormon running for President in 2016, and Rand does run, he could win a fair number of states in the intermountain west in the Republican primary season, but few other than his own outside of there.

LOUISIANA

I thought Louisiana did away with its French-style beauty contest system for Federal elections and adopted the standard primary and caucus system for them.  But I’m seeing in LA-2 and LA-3 that the top two finishers were of the same political party.  And in the case of LA-3, the top finishing Republican got under 50%, so there will be a runoff with the second-place finisher, also a Republican, next month.  LA-2 was the incumbent black Congressman beating back with a majority a Democrat challenge from a Landrieu.  If you remember, that incumbent, Cedric Richmond, beat back the temporary Indochinese-American Republican who temporarily was able to nab that seat after the “Cold Cash” Jefferson scandal.

MAINE

While newly elected Senator Angus King, a former Governor, is an Independent, he is counted as a Democrat because he will caucus with the Democrats.  He replaces RINO Olympia Snowe, so political parlance calls this a party flip.  To me, I don’t see much of a change.

Full gay marriage ahead in Maine.

The ballot measure to close Shawshank State Prison failed.

MARYLAND

Need an electron microscope to find any good news from this state.  Most depressingly, a ballot proposition to allow for in-state tuition for illegal aliens passed.  Every illegal alien a turtle, I suppose.

MASSACHUSETTS

Maybe it’s better that Scott Brown was bounced out.  Other than opposing ObamaCare, he was well on his way to RINOdom.

MICHIGAN

The state’s public employee unions lost most of their ballot initatives.  Ron Paulite Kerry Bentivolio won in MI-11, and Justin Amash easily fended off a challenge in MI-3.  Other than that, no good news.

That begs the question:  When the Tea Party and the Republican Party start divorce proceedings start some time in 2013, who will get custody of Justin Amash?

MINNESOTA

I liked Kurt Bills, but I figure he had little chance.  He won only two counties, both of those in the far southwestern corner of the state.

Michele Bachmann barely hung on, and Chip Cravaack, the airline pilot who toppled long-timer Jim Oberstar in the red wave of two years ago, got overturned himself this year.

The rest is bad news.

MISSISSIPPI

Romney’s best white statewide percentage, 89%, as was to be expected.

Is the “Gore” that Roger Wicker beat for another Senate term any relation to those Gores?

MONTANA

Screwy:  Romney won the state, a Republican won the at-large House seat, but Democrats held on to U.S. Senate and Governor.

Mostly good news from the proposition end, including an immigration one.

NEBRASKA

The RINO cabal and the barnacle class tried to stab Deb Fischer in the back just like they did Todd and Richard Mourdock.  But unlike the latter two, Fischer didn’t help their efforts, and in her winning, beating old Democrat warhorse Bob Kerrey, this was the only D-to-R Senate flip from November 6.  She replaces the Cornhusker Kickbacker.

NEVADA

Mitt Romney (lost) and Dean Heller (won) got almost the same percentage of the vote, which means the Democrat running for Senate way underperformed Obama.

We may be losing Nevada for good (Hispanics).  And when the porn industry moves from the San Fernando Valley to Las Vegas because of the condom law, that process will probably accelerate.

I am hoping, probably beyond hope, that what happened on November 6 shuts the barnacle class and RINOs up about Sharron Angle.  John McCain from a state which borders Nevada couldn’t win Nevada, and Mitt Romney, a Mormon, couldn’t win a state with a plentiful Mormon population.  Put it together, and nobody could have beaten Harry Reid in between.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

This was Romney’s only real chance in New England.  Go figure — The New England Yankee pretty much cleans up in Dixie but can’t win shit in New England.

The state has two House seats, both of which Republicans flipped from Democrats in 2010, both of which Democrats flipped from Republicans this year.

Democrats hold on to the Governor’s mansion here; the Republican nominee was the 2nd place finisher to Kelly Ayotte in the Republican Primary for Senate in 2010.

Half the scant gains that Democrats made in state legislative bodies nationwide this year came from New Hampshire, which has a 400-member state House.

The only good news from the state is that a proposition permanently to prohibit a state income tax passed.

NEW JERSEY

(Insert your favorite expletives here)

NEW MEXICO

Gary Johnson could have and should have run for the Senate as a Republican.  He would have won fairly easily.  But no…he had to dick around with his not even 1% of the vote.

NEW YORK

See:  New Jersey

NORTH CAROLINA

The other state Romney flipped outright.  It’s also a Gubernatorial flip in the same direction, and that was a foregone conclusion when Punkin threw in the towel.  Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s win over the Democrat was a wider win than Romney’s win over Obama in the Tar Heel State.  Let’s hope he remembers the immigration issue.

That the media weren’t able to call North Carolina for Romney quickly after the poll closing was a clue that it wasn’t going to be Romney’s night.  Then again, the media always do this — Ceteris paribus, they’ll call states for Democrats sooner than for Republicans.  Missouri was obviously going to be a Romney win, but it took the national media hours to call it.

NORTH DAKOTA

All Republicans did well…except for moderate Senate candidate Rick Berg.  Give the GOPee a half of chance, and all Republican Senate candidates would be Rick Berg.

OHIO

Want to have some fun?

Look at the state on the Presidential level:  It’s colored blue.  Look at the state on the U.S. Senate level:  It’s colored blue.  Now look at the Congressional district wins:  Mostly red, to the tune of 12 out of 16.  This is more proof of how House elections in general and Republican-favored gerrmyandering in particular by state legislatures elected in the red wave of two years ago was the firewall this year.

A lot of my Florida analysis on the Presidential level applies to Ohio.  In the primary, Romney tended to win counties that Obama won in November, and Rickroller Santorum (the not-Romney flavor of the day) generally won the counties that Romney won in November.  It all goes to prove a point I made more than a week ago, that during the Primary and caucus season, Romney was the candidate of red voters in blue areas, not so much of red voters in red areas.  Yet we’re hearing all the talking heads bitch about Romney was “too conservative.”  Romney would not have been the nominee if there was only ever one credible “not Romney” flavor in the primaries.  It makes you wonder if there being more than one was a secret project of Romney-aligned Super PACs.

OKLAHOMA

Romney won every county, like McCain did four years ago.  A Connerly initative (anti-affirmative action) passed.

OREGON

Considering the other results, how these same voters said no to legalizing weed is beyond me.

PENNSYLVANIA

Another one of these states:  Blue overall in the Presidential map, but a lot of red in the county breakdown, blue overall in the Senate map, and a lot of red in the Congressional district breakdown.  Lou Barletta won his bigger and re-drawn PA-11 by a bigger margin than he did toppling Paul Kanjorski two years ago.

RHODE ISLAND

…is a really small state.

SOUTH CAROLINA

This was another foregone conclusion for Romney that the media deliberately drug its heels to declare.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Only interesting result is that At-Large Republican Congresswoman Kristi Noem, still as babe-a-licious as ever, won re-election by a far bigger margin than she did winning two years ago with only a plurality toppling the incumbent Democrat.

Sen. Jon Cryer is said to be 2016 material.

TENNESSEE

The only Democrat I really wanted to win was Senate candidate Mark Clayton.  But there was no way that Tennessee voters would vote for Romney then turn around and not vote for an incumbent Republican running for re-election to the Senate.

TEXAS

Comparing Romney to Ted Cruz, Romney did slightly better than Cruz overall, but Cruz did slightly better than Romney among Hispanic voters.  This means Cruz did noticeably but not too signficantly worse among gringo Texas voters than Romney, which means there is probably still apprehension about how he’ll vote on immigration issues.

UTAH

The biggest percentage shift toward the Republican Presidential candidate of all states in 2012 compared to 2008.  Obviously, McCain won Utah in 2008, but his margin was relatively lethargic by Utah Republican standards, and that was because there was sour grapes that Romney didn’t win the nomination that year.  This is kind of the reverse of what happene in Alaska this year over 2008.

I’m glad Mia Love didn’t win.

VERMONT

At the end of the day, it is what it is.

VIRGINIA

Since the professional parasites in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William County dependent on the Yankee government (Caucasian white collar gibsmedat) will always seem to make the difference, can we just give those three counties to the District of Columbia?

WASHINGTON STATE

Considering the way everything else in this state turned out, the fact that the Republican and a fairly conservative one running for Governor was competitive and finished within a few points is a damned miracle.

WEST VIRGINIA

Romney won every county, Democrat Joe Manchin won almost every county, two of three House members Republican, Incumbent Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin wins re-election narrowly.  First person truly to figure out West Virginia politics gets a Nobel Prize.

WISCONSIN

Paul Ryan didn’t help Romney win the state.  In fact, Romney didn’t win his current state (MA), his native state (MI) nor his running mate’s state.  Paul Ryan was allowed to and indeed did run for re-election to his House seat, which he won.  Curiously, it was the weakest winning margin of his career, 11 points.  I’m curious to see how Ryan Congressionally did compared to Romney/Ryan Presidentially in WI-1.

WYOMING

The only thing Democrats won is that Obama won the county that contains the plutocrat resort areas of Jackson Hole.  Everything else, Romney, Barasso, anti-ObamaCare proposition, all red.  John Barasso running for re-election to the Senate carried the same plutocrat resort county that Obama carried, which means there were people who voted Obama and Barasso at the same time.  For God’s sake, how?

And no, I have not seen a Wyoming license plate on a car in St. Louis at any point in the last two years, in spite of having seen two Hawaii plates.  That’s a running meme from my 2010 election review.

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2 responses

25 11 2012
The Friendly Grizzly

Also in Alabama, the effort to amend the state Constitution was soundly defeated. The measure was to remove language requiring that public schools be segregated by race.

25 11 2012
Puggg

D.C. and Virginia are contradictory. You must have hurried through this not checking things for consistency. If you enact the proposal that a Federal territory is treated as if it is still part of the state that ceded it, just to “give” D.C. back to Maryland in a sense so that Maryland’s Senators are also D.C.’s Senators and that D.C.’s residents are apportioned as Maryland residents for Congressional representation, just to shut the “Statehood for D.C.” crowd up, (it wouldn’t do that, btw), then if you “give” three northern Virginia counties to D.C. then enact the Wheeler plan, then they are Federally speaking part of VA again, and you’re back to Square One.




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