I’m cross-posting an AR post I made several days ago here. If Debbie Halvorson does not win tonight, the usual suspects will gloat and do victory laps. That’s when you should all come right back here and read this post.
This issue [of Jesse Jackson Jr's guilty plea -- Ed.] and the 2nd Amendment issue are kind of crossing wires because the special election to fill IL-2 (JJ Jr’s old seat) is coming up [Today -- Ed.]. You keep hearing that a white woman with an A rating from the NRA could win it, and that Bloomberg is pouring bags of money into the area to keep that from happening, in order to “stick it to the gun lobby.” All that invective is so full of it.
1. The white woman’s name is Debbie Halvorson. She represented the old IL-11 in Congress for one term, 2008 to 2010. Swept in under Obama’s coattails, swept out in the red wave of 2010. The old IL-11 was a largely outer Chicago suburban transitioning to rural district, and was light red in political character. Her A grade from the NRA comes solely from her one term representing that district.
2. In 2011, Illinois (as well as all states) re-drew their House maps, not only in accordance to new census data, but some states gained or lost Congress seats. Illinois lost seats.
3. Where Halvorson lives, which was in IL-11 from 2001 to 2011, she is now in IL-2. Which has a bunch of the ghetto south side of Chicago and blackening south suburban Cook County, plus some outer suburbs to the south and southwest of Chicago.
4. Last year, Debbie Halvorson did challenge Jesse Jackson Jr in the Democrat primary in IL-2, and Jackson beat her 71% to 29%. That is a good indicator of IL-2′s racial demographics.
5. The ONLY reason Halvorson has a chance now is because there were/are so many credible blacks are in the race. She could in theory eke out a plurality win. If there were only one or two credible blacks, she wouldn’t have a chance. Three or more, she has a chance.
6. But politicians want to win elections and keep on winning elections. She’s already “changed her mind” (“grown”) on 2nd Amendment issues. Taking her apparent positions right now, the NRA would probably grade her as a D. She’s just aware of her new district.
7. Doesn’t matter to Michael Bloomberg that she has. He wants any illusory victory over the “evil gun lobby” that he can peddle for propaganda purposes. He might pour more than $3 million of his own money into this race by the time it’s over.
8. And what will this money be used for? I am all but positive that someone has taken Bloomberg aside and explained to him the differences between the Chicago Way and New York politics. This money is probably being used as a slush fund to buy off and buy out as many credible blacks out of the race as possible, leaving it basically a one-on-one race between Halvorson and the “strongest” black (whoever that is deemed to be) [That now seems to be Robin Kelly, who was the Democrat nominee for State Treasurer in 2010 -- Ed.]. This is a hint for a “future attraction” on my own blog (a really big bag of beans to spill), but if someone wants you out of a political race badly enough, their first tactic will be trying to out and outright buy you off and buy you out, either you personally or members of your staff. It’s not just a Chicago thing, and not just a Democrat thing — I can assure you of that, first hand.
9. If a black wins, all it will mean is that a black wins a Democrat primary in a heavily black district. Ordinarily, that’s about as insightful as “dog bites man.” But you know Michael Bloomberg will do a victory lap, and the lapdog media and its highly paid professionals won’t bother to do this same analysis questioning the whole set of affairs which I just did for you for free.
10. I find it ironic that Bloomberg and his money is being used (in all likelihood) to ensure the election of a black person, while he himself is doing everything he can behind the scenes to depopulate New York City of blacks.