Evitable

12 01 2014

Arlington, Virginia

The Hill, on the Clinton, Inc. making a list and checking it twice:

When the Clintons sat in judgment, Claire McCaskill got the seat closest to the fire. Bill and Hillary had gone all out for her when she ran for Senate in Missouri in 2006. But McCaskill seemed to forget that favor when NBC’s Tim Russert asked her whether Bill had been a great president, during a “Meet the Press” debate against then-Sen. Jim Talent in October 2006.

“He’s been a great leader,” McCaskill said of Bill, “but I don’t want my daughter near him.”

Instantly, McCaskill regretted her remark; the anguish brought her “to the point of epic tears,” according to a friend. She knew the comment had sounded much more deliberate than a forgivable slip of the tongue. So did Hillary, who immediately canceled a planned fundraiser for McCaskill.

A few days later McCaskill called Bill Clinton to offer a tearful apology. Bill was gracious, which just made McCaskill feel worse. After winning the seat, she was terrified of running into Hillary Clinton in the Capitol. “I really don’t want to be in an elevator alone with her,” McCaskill confided to the friend.

But Hillary, who was just then embarking on her presidential campaign, still wanted something from McCaskill—the Missourian’s endorsement. Women’s groups, including EMILY’s List, pressured McCaskill to jump aboard the Clinton bandwagon, and Hillary courted her new colleague personally, setting up a one-on-one lunch in the Senate Dining Room in early 2007. Rather than ask for her support directly, Hillary took a softer approach, seeking common ground on the struggles of campaigning, including the physical toll. “There’s a much more human side to Hillary,” McCaskill thought.

Obama, meanwhile, was pursuing her too, in a string of conversations on the Senate floor. Clearly, Hillary thought she had a shot at McCaskill. But for McCaskill, the choice was always whether to endorse Obama or stay on the sidelines. In January 2008 she not only became the first female senator to endorse Obama but she also made the case to his team that her support would be amplified if Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano came out for him at roughly the same time.

McCaskill offered up a small courtesy, calling Hillary’s personal aide, Huma Abedin, ahead of the endorsement to make sure it didn’t blindside Hillary.

But the trifecta of women leaders giving Obama their public nod was a devastating blow. Hate is too weak a word to describe the feelings that Hillary’s core loyalists still have for McCaskill, who seemed to deliver a fresh endorsement of Obama—and a caustic jab at Hillary—every day during the primary.

And why did all these prominent women break early for Obama over HRC?  Because…Reverse Queen Bee Syndrome aka Female Crabs in a Bucket Syndrome.

As someone who was on the other side of Claire McCaskill’s ledger in 2012, from my vantage point, she got absolutely no help from Clinton, Inc. that year.

Many of the other names on the traitor side of the ledger were easy to remember, from Ted Kennedy to John Lewis, the civil rights icon whose defection had been so painful that Bill Clinton seemed to be in a state of denial about it. In private conversations, he tried to explain away Lewis’s motivations for switching camps midstream, after Obama began ratcheting up pressure for black lawmakers to get on “the right side of history.”

Lewis, because of his own place in American history and the unique loyalty test he faced with the first viable black candidate running for president, is a perfect example of why Clinton aides had to keep track of more detailed information than the simple binary of for and against. Perhaps someday Lewis’s betrayal could be forgiven.

Ted Kennedy (another seven on the hit list) was a different story.

He had slashed Hillary worst of all, delivering a pivotal endorsement speech for Obama just before the Super Tuesday primaries that cast her as yesterday’s news and Obama as the rightful heir to Camelot. He did it in conjunction with a New York Times op-ed by Caroline Kennedy that said much the same thing in less thundering tones. Bill Clinton had pleaded with Kennedy to hold off, but to no avail.

John Lewis is easy to explain — Race race race race race.  Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama over HRC is harder to figure, but I think I know the answer, though it might be an answer he took to his grave so we’ll never be able to confirm in this world — One hint to the answer is the use of the word “Camelot” here.  The only Kennedy that was ever President was John, and only for 1,036 days.  If HRC would have been elected President in 2008, it would have meant that the Clintons would have instantly become more of a credible Democrat Presidential dynasty than the Kennedys, by definition of two different Clintons winning the White House as opposed to just one Kennedy.  If I’m right, look for either an above or below the surface jihad from the remaining living political Kennedys to bring down HRC when the Presidential campaign season begins in the second half of next year going into early 2016.

Other reasons why I don’t think HRC is inevitable in 2016.





Behind You, All the Way

19 03 2012

This image has been on the Drudge Report all day.  Yeah, the angle that Santorum was for Romney in 2008 is the most obvious.

What grabbed my eye is who is in the background.  I won’t blame you for not knowing who he is, because most of you aren’t supposed to know.  But I won’t even blame you even if you’re supposed to know and don’t; he’s been that passe and irrelevant for a long time.

He’s very relevant to me.

Pop quiz:  Who is he, and why is he relevant to me?

UPDATE 3/25

Six days of nobody having the answer is enough.

It is former Missouri Governor Matt Blunt (2004-8), son of current U.S. Senator Roy Blunt.

Why is he relevant to me?  All this St. Louis Countian have to do is look at my drivers license with the CCW endorsement.

While it was under his predecessor as Governor, Bob Holden, that CCW was passed (over his veto, that was the subject matter of the very first post on this blog), the bill that ultimately got passed forgot to require the collection of a permit fee.  St. Louis City and St. Louis County hid behind the Hancock Amendment curtain to deny issuing anyone permits, even though every other county in the state had no Hancock problems.  It was just an accidental legal loophole that St. Louis City and County exploited not to issue permits.  It wasn’t until Matt Blunt’s first year as Governor that the General Assembly passed the fix and Blunt signed it.  If Claire McCaskill would have won Governor in 2004, (yes, her), she probably wouldn’t have signed the fix legislation, or the General Assembly would have had to try to override like they did CCW in general in 2003.





Buyer’s Regret Presents Itself in Georgia

2 12 2008

In the days and weeks before the election on November 4, a lot of talking heads thought that if Barack H. Obama won, that there would be a lot of buyer’s regret in the weeks after the election.

Today’s special election in Georgia is the first numerical evidence of it, I think.

Let me start off by saying that I wanted Saxby Chambliss to lose.  He’s an amnestyaire and bailoutaire.  Based on that, I’m not happy with tonight’s results.

In November, McCain beat Obama in Georgia by a 52-47 margin, a 5-point win.  Saxby Chambliss got 49.75% in the Senate race, compared to Jim Martin’s 46.83%, not even a 3-point spread.  Since Chambliss didn’t get above 50%, Georgia law required a runoff between the top two votegetters.

With 96% of the boxes counted in today’s runoff, Chambliss has 57.6%, to Martin’s 42.4%.

The most pressing issue for conservatives in the last several years has been immigration, and the biggest issue in the last few months has been the bailout.  On those issues, Chambliss = McCain = President Bush.  For the tenure of his time in the Senate, Chambliss has been closer to President Bush than John McCain.  But both Chambliss, McCain and Bush suffered from the sullied Republican brand name thanks to the latter, in the minds of 2008 voters.  Jim Martin = Obama in that he actively courted Obama’s support, and the support of Obama’s rapper friends, and even used vacated Obama offices in Georgia for his own runoff campaign.  Sarah Palin campaigned hard in the state for Chambliss.  In essence, this was McCain vs Obama all over again in Georgia, one month later.

So, in a matter of one month, Chambliss went from 49.75 to 57.6, Martin sank from 46.83 to 42.4.  Chambliss’s 57.6 today is higher than McCain’s 52.1 percent in November.  That means a 5.5 swing for Chambliss over McCain in a month, and 7.85 percent swing for Chambliss over himself in a month.  Split the difference, and let’s say that this represents a 6.6% swing towards the Republicans in Georgia in a month.

That said, if you apply that 6.6% swing as a “buyer’s regret” within a month to the Presidential election, this would swing VA, NC, OH, IN and FL from blue to red.  It wouldn’t be enough to swing the other states that swung from red to blue from 2004 to 2008, like IA, NM, CO, NV.  So Obama would have still won with 279 electoral college votes, with a very slight (about 0.35%) popular vote win, if you take the 6.95% he did win by and take away the 6.6% buyer’s regret.





I Don’t Wonder

13 11 2008

Schlafly:

The Catholic Connection to Barack Obama

Do you wonder why 2008 election data show that the majority of Catholics voted for Barack Obama even though his record as Illinois State Senator proves him the most pro-abortion candidate who ever ran for President?

No, I don’t wonder, because I know the answer:

Hispanics.





St. Louis County…That’s All Folks.

12 11 2008

Jo Mannies compares the St. Louis County results for Bush v. Kerry in 2004, and McCain v. Obama in 2008.  You will see that Democrats made gains in north county, central west county, Kirkwood, parts of near south county, Overland-Olivette-Creve Coeur.

Jay Nixon beat Kenny Hulshof for Governor in St. Louis County by a 65-33 margin, compared for 60-39 Obama over McCain.  However, the Obama/Nixon victory in the County didn’t go far downballot, for the two contested Senate districts, the 15th and the 1st, both containing a lot of Delta Obama precincts, was retained by the Republicans and flipped to the Republicans, respectively.

I have said it before in this medium, and 2008 proves it — St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, is now politically irrelevant in statewide elections.





The Red Delta Map

9 11 2008

This is a map of U.S. counties that, in 2008 compared to 2004, voted more Republican.  The New York Times had a version of this map, but they also showed, in varying shades of blue, counties that voted more Democrat in 2008 compared to 2004.  Since most of this map that you see is white, you can deduce that most of the NYT version is blue.  Indeed, most counties in Indiana are dark blue.

Though, just because a county in this map or the NYT map is red does not necessarily mean that McCain got more votes than Obama in the county, nor does a blue county in the NYT map guarantee that Obama beat McCain there.  It’s just measuring the delta factor.

Looking at the red delta counties, John McCain made advances in eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee, eastern Oklahoma, and north Alabama, and of course, Arizona.  What’s interesting is that most of Arkansas is red, and a lot of southern Louisiana is red.

Steve Sailer accounts a lot of this to the “Scots-Irish Gap,” that is, so-called “Scots-Irish” of the mid-South were voting for one of their own.  Ironically, John McCain had roots in Carroll County, Mississippi, and it is not red on this map.  Dr. Brent Nelson, disputing Sailer’s “monocausal” thesis, vis-a-vis Dr. Nelson’s own home state of Arkansas:

There are several factors.   (1)  There may be something to Sailer’s spiel about the Scotch-Irish,  but I think that is a bit of a stretch this far along.   It is a factor, but it is not as knock down drag out important as Sailer wants to think it is.   But we will dignify it by calling it a cause, albeit a secondary one.

(2)  White Democrat turnout was slightly lower than one would expect.   Some white Demos were disappointed that Hillary was not the candidate.    Others did not want to vote for a black but did not want to vote for a Republican either.   They decided not to vote.

(3)   The rumor was widespread that Obama is really a Moslem/Muslim (however it is transliterated this year).    This had an impact because close to 80 percent of the people in Ark. are Southern Baptists.   The Moslem rumor gave people an excuse to vote against Obama on religious grounds when they were really uncomfortable with him as a black.      The religious factor was probably also strong in Okla.,  another heavily Baptist state.    Racial feeling would be weak in Okla.  because Okla. is only 7 percent black.

(4)  Strong pro-military sentiment in Ark.,  many military retirees.   Little Rock Air Force Base is a big operation.

Most of the blue counties are black-impacted Delta counties.  The other 2 blue counties are Pulaski (Little Rock) and Jefferson (Pine Bluff).

In this a good year for Democrats, Arkansas went in the other direction.  This is one extra complication in the process of figuring out a state whose voters that, on the same day in November 1968, voted for a segregationist (by modern standards, not those of 1968) for President (George Wallace), a liberal Republican for Governor (Winthrop Rockefeller), and a liberal Democrat for Senate (J. Wm. Fullbright), simultaneously.  Whoever truly figures out Arkansas politics deserves a Nobel Prize.

Also noteworthy is southern Louisiana.  Two words:  Katrina, Rita.  And the black voters that will never return.





The McBlame Game

6 11 2008

A few articles on the McLame postmortem.

CNS:

McCain Lost Ground with Hispanics, Despite Immigration Stance

Two-thirds of Hispanics – 66 percent – voted in favor of Barack Obama on Election Day, despite Republican John McCain’s long-time support of the Hispanic community, his work on comprehensive immigration reform, and the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill.

McCain won 32 percent of the Hispanic vote, less than the 40 percent garnered by President Bush in 2004, but more than the 21 percent that former Sen. Bob Dole received in his presidential race in 1996.

Not hard:  Because McCain was somewhat liberal, this gave the Democrats permission to become even more liberal.  No matter how liberal Republican gets, a Democrat can always out-liberal them.  Therefore, Hispanics will generally go with the more liberal party.

Notice that President Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004.  That is described as “doing well,” but most sane political analysts call that a landslide defeat.

***

The gossip on the part of McCain’s cretins about Sarah Palin is reaching a feverish pitch, and the MSM is running with it like it’s gospel.  I don’t necessarily believe the gossip:  These McCain hacks spreading the gossip are probably the ones that wanted Lieberman as the running mate.  There has been more negativity from the McCain campaign about their own running mate than there ever was about Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, Bern Dohrn and Louis Farrakhan combined.

Conspicuously, Sarah Palin got out of the Arizona Biltmore Hotel and back to Alaska rather quickly on Tuesday night.  In the next several days, we’ll hear stories from her people about the clamps that the McCain campaign put on her, how she had to defend McCainiac policies that she never agreed with.

***

John Lott:  John Fund’s list of mistakes made by the McCain Campaign

They’re about to roll out 2TB hard drives.  That should be big enough to hold that txt file.

***








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