In Case You Were Wondering

10 07 2014

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

todd

I’ve been telling you that I haven’t finished spilling all the beans because certain people have kindly requested that I hold back until the timing is right.  What I knew but didn’t say myself here is that “right timing” meant that Todd wanted to tell his side of the story, and he wanted to do that first.  I highly suspected that his side of the story was going to be in book form.  A theory which was proven right yesterday when a brown truck delivered me an author-autographed copy of this book.

The way I figure, it won’t be long until it goes on sale to the general public that I’ll get the okay to spill the final bean, that is, why he didn’t drop out of the race.  That is something this book does not really cover.  There is a subtle hint on the cover of this book:  The words “party bosses.”  A few weeks ago, I dropped another hint, that is, if you were paying attention.

What it does do most crucially, I think, is show that the huge mistake was acknowledging the remarks at all.  I remember thinking to myself the Monday after that the whole thing would blow over by the end of the week.  I should have paid closer attention to myself; if I would have, I would have yelled and screamed at everyone to ignore this thing, not to say anything about it in public, not to fuel the non-troversy, and it probably would have blown over.  It wasn’t until the middle of November when it was all over anyway that this conclusion of what I and we should have done hit me like a ton of bricks.  Todd’s mentality is that his apology fueled and in fact endorsed the smear and the paranoia, and he’s right about that.  It’s just that I go one step further:  The apology would not have happened without our acknowledgment, and that’s what really added fuel to the fire.





Gerrymandering Schmarrymandering

27 01 2014

USA

Turns out the conventional wisdom parroted by both the political class and yours truly about the 2011 gerrymanders helping the Republicans in the House in 2012 was mostly fatuous. The takeaway is that the study did lots and lots and lots of simulations of the November 2012 Congressional vote based on differing Congressional districts, and found that it was virtually impossible to draw a map that would have delivered the House to the Democrats.

We get a mention:

The results were not encouraging for reform advocates. In the vast majority of states, our nonpartisan simulations produced Republican seat shares that were not much different from the actual numbers in the last election. This was true even in some states, like Indiana and Missouri, with heavy Republican influence over redistricting. Both of these states were hotly contested and leaned only slightly Republican over all, but of the 17 seats between them, only four were won by Democrats (in St. Louis, Kansas City, Gary and Indianapolis). While some of our simulations generated an additional Democratic seat around St. Louis or Indianapolis, most of them did not, and in any case, a vanishingly small number of simulations gave Democrats a congressional seat share commensurate with their overall support in these states.

Except in terms of Presidential politics in 2012, Missouri was not “hotly contested.”  That Romney was going to win it was a foregone conclusion that both the Romney and Obama campaigns drew in the spring of 2012.  If you lived in St. Louis or Kansas City media markets during the fall of 2012, you didn’t see one Presidential media buy.  That’s because those media markets cover three states that were foregone conclusions:  Kansas (Romney), Missouri (Romney), Illinois (Obama).

As far as I know, Indiana wasn’t really contested, either, in terms of Presidential politics.

As far as Congressional redistricting, one big giant X-factor that the author of this piece doesn’t mention is this:  Blacks.  Gerrymandering to help white liberals in order to hurt white conservatives also hurts blacks.  This is why during the 2011 redistricting process here in Missouri, the politics of which took place in the very building in which I am currently writing this blog post, Republicans and black Democrats teamed up to give us our current map, because the current map benefits Republicans and black Democrats.  And besides, why are white liberals bitching?  It’s not as if a black Democrat member of Congress is going to vote against white liberal hobby horse issues anyway.

If the white partisan split in House elections overall was around 51 R 49 D, then the liberal Democrats would have a point about gerrymandering.  But in reality, it’s around 60-40, and that means that even favorable Democrat gerrymanders wouldn’t make much of a difference.

UPDATE

Consider last year in Virginia.  Democrats eked out the statewide offices, but Republicans won 67 of 100 seats in the State House (House of Delegates).  However, considering the generic vote, Republicans got more votes than Democrats, significantly more, when examining House of Delegate elections alone.  The Democrats that won statewide only won because of the big margins they ran up among Federal workers, blacks and immigrants in suburban D.C., Richmond and Norfolk.  But there was probably no way to draw a map of the House of Delegates to engineer anything close to a Democrat majority.





Evitable

12 01 2014

Arlington, Virginia

The Hill, on the Clinton, Inc. making a list and checking it twice:

When the Clintons sat in judgment, Claire McCaskill got the seat closest to the fire. Bill and Hillary had gone all out for her when she ran for Senate in Missouri in 2006. But McCaskill seemed to forget that favor when NBC’s Tim Russert asked her whether Bill had been a great president, during a “Meet the Press” debate against then-Sen. Jim Talent in October 2006.

“He’s been a great leader,” McCaskill said of Bill, “but I don’t want my daughter near him.”

Instantly, McCaskill regretted her remark; the anguish brought her “to the point of epic tears,” according to a friend. She knew the comment had sounded much more deliberate than a forgivable slip of the tongue. So did Hillary, who immediately canceled a planned fundraiser for McCaskill.

A few days later McCaskill called Bill Clinton to offer a tearful apology. Bill was gracious, which just made McCaskill feel worse. After winning the seat, she was terrified of running into Hillary Clinton in the Capitol. “I really don’t want to be in an elevator alone with her,” McCaskill confided to the friend.

But Hillary, who was just then embarking on her presidential campaign, still wanted something from McCaskill—the Missourian’s endorsement. Women’s groups, including EMILY’s List, pressured McCaskill to jump aboard the Clinton bandwagon, and Hillary courted her new colleague personally, setting up a one-on-one lunch in the Senate Dining Room in early 2007. Rather than ask for her support directly, Hillary took a softer approach, seeking common ground on the struggles of campaigning, including the physical toll. “There’s a much more human side to Hillary,” McCaskill thought.

Obama, meanwhile, was pursuing her too, in a string of conversations on the Senate floor. Clearly, Hillary thought she had a shot at McCaskill. But for McCaskill, the choice was always whether to endorse Obama or stay on the sidelines. In January 2008 she not only became the first female senator to endorse Obama but she also made the case to his team that her support would be amplified if Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano came out for him at roughly the same time.

McCaskill offered up a small courtesy, calling Hillary’s personal aide, Huma Abedin, ahead of the endorsement to make sure it didn’t blindside Hillary.

But the trifecta of women leaders giving Obama their public nod was a devastating blow. Hate is too weak a word to describe the feelings that Hillary’s core loyalists still have for McCaskill, who seemed to deliver a fresh endorsement of Obama—and a caustic jab at Hillary—every day during the primary.

And why did all these prominent women break early for Obama over HRC?  Because…Reverse Queen Bee Syndrome aka Female Crabs in a Bucket Syndrome.

As someone who was on the other side of Claire McCaskill’s ledger in 2012, from my vantage point, she got absolutely no help from Clinton, Inc. that year.

Many of the other names on the traitor side of the ledger were easy to remember, from Ted Kennedy to John Lewis, the civil rights icon whose defection had been so painful that Bill Clinton seemed to be in a state of denial about it. In private conversations, he tried to explain away Lewis’s motivations for switching camps midstream, after Obama began ratcheting up pressure for black lawmakers to get on “the right side of history.”

Lewis, because of his own place in American history and the unique loyalty test he faced with the first viable black candidate running for president, is a perfect example of why Clinton aides had to keep track of more detailed information than the simple binary of for and against. Perhaps someday Lewis’s betrayal could be forgiven.

Ted Kennedy (another seven on the hit list) was a different story.

He had slashed Hillary worst of all, delivering a pivotal endorsement speech for Obama just before the Super Tuesday primaries that cast her as yesterday’s news and Obama as the rightful heir to Camelot. He did it in conjunction with a New York Times op-ed by Caroline Kennedy that said much the same thing in less thundering tones. Bill Clinton had pleaded with Kennedy to hold off, but to no avail.

John Lewis is easy to explain — Race race race race race.  Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama over HRC is harder to figure, but I think I know the answer, though it might be an answer he took to his grave so we’ll never be able to confirm in this world — One hint to the answer is the use of the word “Camelot” here.  The only Kennedy that was ever President was John, and only for 1,036 days.  If HRC would have been elected President in 2008, it would have meant that the Clintons would have instantly become more of a credible Democrat Presidential dynasty than the Kennedys, by definition of two different Clintons winning the White House as opposed to just one Kennedy.  If I’m right, look for either an above or below the surface jihad from the remaining living political Kennedys to bring down HRC when the Presidential campaign season begins in the second half of next year going into early 2016.

Other reasons why I don’t think HRC is inevitable in 2016.





Junior Partner

3 11 2013

Boston

I’ve never believed the notion that some of our favorite websites have been pushing that Romney picked Paul Ryan as a running mate at the behest of consultants, barnacles and donors.  I’ve tended to the theory that Romney elevating younger “talent” like Ryan up the ladder ahead of what is considered normal schedule was a feature of his managerial style in the world of business.

Drudge today has been splashing heavy this Time expose mainly about what scared the Romney campaign away from Krispy Christie, but in passing, my sensibilities have been confirmed:

Mitt meditated on the choice that now seemed inevitable: Ryan. Beyond all the political pros and cons, Romney felt comfortable with Paul. He reminded Mitt of junior partners he used to work with at Bain: eager, earnest, solicitous, smart and not at all threatening. Bob White had a phrase for these buttoned-down go-getters, which he applied to Ryan: “client-ready.”

That will get missed, but at least the good news is that dirty laundry is starting to show up re Christie.  Not soon enough to keep him from winning a second term as New Jersey Governor on Tuesday, but this will very likely seriously hurt his Presidential chops.

And as a Jeff Sessions guy, that suits me just fine.

UPDATE

Now on the heels of this, Romney comes out and says that Krispy Christie can win the Republican nomination in 2016 and save the party.

Great idea, nominate a northeastern moderate.

If Romney loves Christie so much, why did he pick Ryan instead of Christie?  The first link in this story answers all.





But I Repeat Myself

10 10 2013

America

Ever since IRSgate broke, I’ve been very skeptical of the theory that it influenced 2012 by depressing Republican turnout.  First off, the TPM was never hot for Romney, second, Romney had plenty of money on his own to do GOTV.  His losing is entirely his fault.  Hell, the Romney campaign’s election day GOTV software base was so bad and untested that the sonofabitch crashed when the Romney campaign tried to crank it up on the morning of election day.

But we have a lame quantitative attempt to “prove” that:

Study finds IRS suppression of Tea Party swung 2012 election

A new study by the American Enterprise Institute — “Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence From The Tea Party Movement” — finds that the movement boosted Republican turnout by three to six million votes in the 2010 election. This effect was blunted in the 2012 election, though, because growth in the movement stalled.

That slowdown happened, co-author and AEI economist Stan Veuger notes, at the same time that the IRS began coming down hard on these groups. He argues in a RealClearMarkets.com article that this most likely had a major impact in the 2012 election.

“The founders, members, and donors of new Tea Party groups found themselves incapable of exercising their constitutional rights, and the Tea Party’s impact was muted in the 2012 election cycle,” Veuger said.

He added: “The data show that, had the Tea Party groups continued to grow at the pace seen in 2009 and 2010, and had their effect on the 2012 vote been similar to that seen in 2010, they would have brought the Republican Party as many as 5 to 8.5 million votes compared to Obama’s victory margin of 5 million.”

Given those numbers, it is reasonable to be suspicious of the IRS targeting, Veuger said.

The AEI study was done by Veuger, Andreas Madestam of Stockholm University, and Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott, both from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

The big problem with this study?  As the investment commercials always tell us, past returns are not automatically indicative of future results.

I can believe that the TPM efforts boosted Republican turnout in 2010 over 2008 by a 3-6m delta.  What I cannot automatically be made to believe is that it would have kept on bringing in more voters, 5-8.5m delta on top of that, in 2012 over 2010, had Obama and the RINOs combined not sicked the IRS on it.  What is very possible is that the TPM in 2009 and 2010 plucked a lot of sweet easy low hanging fruit, but there was no fruit to be had any higher on the tree.





Affirmative Obama

18 09 2013

Chicago

obamastaffcropped

Washington Examiner:

Book: Black donors forced nearly all-white Obama campaign to recruit black aide

In April 2012, the Obama re-election campaign posted a photo of a staff meeting on its Tumblr account. The aides in the picture were young, casually dressed, and enthusiastic — and nearly all white. The campaign took heat on the Internet for a remarkable lack of diversity, particularly since the staff was working to re-elect the first black president in U.S. history.

Now, a new book filled with inside information from the campaign reports that top Obama aides were also taking heat from key donors and supporters. In The Message: The Reselling of President Obama, author Richard Wolffe writes that influential black supporters were unhappy with the lack of black aides in top campaign roles. The supporters were so unhappy that they forced the campaign to search for African-Americans to fill senior roles in the effort. After months of searching, the campaign found exactly one.

Obama need not have bothered.  What, did anyone think he wasn’t going to get almost 100% of the black vote from a black turnout that wasn’t going to be at least as high as 2008?  (Higher, as it turned out.)  The only people who were so delusional as to be in that category were race pandering lamestream conservatives.  Why buy a cow when you’re getting the milk for free?





Eight Point Four Percent

3 06 2013

America

Wow.  The voting wave of the future. Hispanics were a big 8.4% of the 2012 electorate.

Remember that NYT slider-calculator a month or two ago that showed that even if Romney got 70% of the Hispanic vote, holding all other things equal, he still wouldn’t have won? Remember, that was based on exit polling data that we now know overhyped and overstated the Hispanic vote. I now think that Romney still would have lost even if he got 100% of the Hispanic vote.

Meanwhile, 700,000 more white votes in four states, and Romney is President right now.

Sailer notes that the really crucial fulcrum demographic for Obama last year was elderly black women.  Sociologically, that alludes to the matriarchial nature of traditional black African societies.  That also confirms what I have observed both first hand and second hand from trusted sources, that black voters are disproportionately upper middle aged to elderly black women.  Sure, the emaciated blonde in South Florida keeps touting out the hobby horse that 20% of black men under 30 voted Romney (hint, Ann — that means 80% voted for Obama), but young black men hardly vote.  If 100% of black men under 30 voted Republican, it would not change the outcome of one state’s Electoral College votes, one Senate race, one Congressional race, or even as much as one race for dog catcher.





I Grokketh Not

20 05 2013

IRS

I’m not liking this meme I’m starting to hear develop all over conservative talk radio, that IRSgate was the proximate causation for Romney not winning.

While I definitely believe that IRSgate came straight from the top, i.e. the current resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and was designed to bog the TPM down in Mickey Mouse paperwork to keep it from being effective, and to harass big donors to Romney and Republican organizations and TPM organizations, I do not think that that can totally explain why Romney didn’t win.  That’s because the TPM was never too hot for Romney, and he wasn’t exactly hurting for money, either.  What explains Romney not winning is that incumbent politicians are very hard to beat, and not enough white conservatives were jazzed to show up and vote for an open borders RINO.

Related:  Stupid and Evil

 





Bingo

3 05 2013

Aztlan

Byron York, in the Washington Examiner:

In 2012, President Obama famously won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent. If all other factors remained the same, how large a percentage of the Hispanic vote would Romney have had to win to capture the White House?

What if Romney had won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, the high-water mark for Republicans achieved by George W. Bush in 2004?  [Bullshit, it was at most 40%, maybe as low as 35% -- Blogmeister] As it turns out, if Romney had hit that [non-existent -- Blogmeister] Bush mark, he still would have lost, with 240 electoral votes to 298 for Obama.

But what if Romney had been able to make history and attract 50 percent of Hispanic voters? What then? He still would have been beaten, 283 electoral votes to 255.

What if Romney had been able to do something absolutely astonishing for a Republican and win 60 percent of the Hispanic vote? He would have lost by the same margin, 283 electoral votes to 255.

But what if Romney had been able to reach a mind-blowing 70 percent of the Hispanic vote? Surely that would have meant victory, right? No, it wouldn’t. Romney still would have lost, although by the narrowest of electoral margins, 270 to 268. (Under that scenario, Romney would have won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College; he could have racked up huge numbers of Hispanic votes in California, New York and Texas, for example, and not changed the results in those states.)

According to the Times’ calculator, Romney would have had to win 73 percent of the Hispanic vote to prevail in 2012. Which suggests that Romney, and Republicans, had bigger problems than Hispanic voters.

The most serious of those problems was that Romney was not able to connect with white voters who were so turned off by the campaign that they abandoned the GOP and in many cases stayed away from the polls altogether. Recent reports suggest as many as 5 million white voters simply stayed home on Election Day. If they had voted at the same rate they did in 2004, even with the demographic changes since then, Romney would have won.

Likewise, the white vote is so large that an improvement of 4 points — going from 60 percent to 64 percent of those whites who did vote — would have won the race for Romney.

Okay, which is easier for a Republican Presidential candidate to do?  Get 4% more of the white vote, or totally invert the Hispanic vote?

Yet, the Stupid Party at least in an official sense is panicking over the Hispanic vote, and pushing for amnesty based on chasing the Hispanic vote.  It’s stupid stunts like that which keep crucial swing state crucial white voters at home.  Which was THE difference in 2012.

Moral of this story:  A few working middle class whites in the rust belt have more leverage over who does and does not get to be President than half of all Hispanic voters.





She Has Her Beans to Spill

21 03 2013

And I’ve got mine. Remember, I have not yet spilled the biggest bag.

Yeah, I heard.  Claire McCaskill is writing a tell all about 2012, blah blah blah.  I almost literally have 87 different calls, e-mails and text messages from people telling me so.  Ordinarily, I would ignore, but because of the subject matter and who you know she’ll spend most of the book talking about, and because of who I am (or was) in relation to that subject matter, I guess I’m going to be semi-obliged to read the damned thing.

If that link is any indication, she’s giving herself all the credit for our primary win.  Yes, she can take a little bit of it, but she can’t take all of it.  See?  I’ve already debunked one distortion in her book before she even started writing it.

And also…will she be nice enough to use the occasion of this book to answer these questions for me and the world — From what I hear, there was more open verbal vituperative and personal hate directed at her by the women on her own staff than there was from everyone in our camp, Steelman’s camp and Brunner’s camp combined.  One, is that true, and two, why?





The Essence of Hell

18 03 2013

Washington, D.C.

If The Big Guy Upstairs has me slated for an eternity in the way-down-there place, when I get there, I just might find out that hell is hell not because it’s full of red monsters with horns and pitchforks and eternal fires, but because it’s full of infinite and eternal focus groups and polling.

That said, queue Jen Rubin in the WaPo:

In focus groups and meetings around the country, Priebus said, he learned that the Mitt Romney phrase “self-deportation” was the biggest turn-off for Hispanics. He called it a terrible “unforced error,” saying, “It was the most hurtful thing in the country [for] Hispanics.”

“When something like this happens and you don’t have a year-round operation on the ground with the Hispanic community,” Priebus said, a comment like that “makes it even harder.”

(snip)

Priebus pointed to the Bushes. “One reason the Bush family does well is they are obsessed — obsessed in a good way — with school choice,” an issue that hits home with all parents. Priebus rejected the idea that there is an effort to make the GOP less conservative. Rather, the idea is simple: “We need to relate economic issues to people.”

(snip)

From my vantage point, the notion that any of this would be controversial among Republicans tells you exactly what the problem is in the party and where it is coming from. Sure, the Republican Party can refuse to relate to voters and tell Hispanics they are going to kick them out of the country. But then it simply won’t win presidential elections, nor a lot of Senate races. No wonder some on the left are so disparaging of the report; if followed, it might make the GOP a lot more competitive nationally.

This is about the RNC “autopsy” of the failed Romney campaign.  That Rinse Pree-BUS fawns over the Bushes is not a coincidence, because the various names associated with this autopsy all point to the fact that the “autopsy” is nothing more than Jeb Bush declaring his candidacy for President in 2016.

Maybe someone should tell Jen Rubin and Rinse Pree-BUS that there are people other than Hispanics who are allowed to vote.  Watch as their brains blue screen.  Ask them:  Who the hell died and made Hispanics the be-all and end-all of American elections?  Anyone who studies the issue honestly enough that controlling for a lot of factors, the Hispanic vote isn’t really that important or powerful.  “The Bush family does well” — I don’t think any Bush has ever won a majority of the Hispanic vote in any election, even considering each state within a Presidential election as its own separate “election,” which it legally is.

One more thing:  You can count on one hand the number of times Romney actually used the phrase “self-deportation,” and that was entirely in the primary season before he had the Republican nomination locked up.  Yes, he got that phrase from Kris Kobach, and yes, these were in the days when Romney actually pretended to care about Kobach just long enough to fool enough Republican primary voters.  Of course, as you know by now thanks to my bean-spilling, once he clinched the nomination, he dumped Kobach and then went back to his usual open borders self.  Besides, what is “self-deportation” but illegal aliens willingly obeying immigration law?  That’s how most laws function, genius:  Because people willingly obey them in fear of the consequences of not obeying them and having someone else enforce them upon them.





Emperor Barnacle in the News

9 02 2013

Washington, D.C. and Missouri

1.  My natural habit is to want to wait awhile in order to spill the biggest bag of beans I have yet to spill about you-know-what.  But before then, I have a couple of interim smaller bags of beans I have to spill combined with the ones I have already spilled before I can get to that.  But…Karl Roverrated running his mouth and dragging my ex-boss’s good name through the mud purely to help his own future business interests is begging me to speed up the process.  I will resist temptation, for now.

2.  Well, well, well.  Emperor Barnacle can take absolutely zero credit for electing Ronald Reagan in 1980.  Because you know now what you know, you realize how big of a blow this is to him, his reputation and his future ability to make money and draw clients.

Roverrated is said to be a protege of Lee Atwater, (though you wouldn’t know it by me), but even Atwater was only a very minor player in Reagan’s two Presidential campaigns, and hardly responsible for the outcome of either.  Atwater was in all essence the Bush 41 campaign in 1988, but in doing so, he used tactics that Karl Roverrated not only never would, but runs away from and does the opposite of today.

3.  Locally, Sarah Steelman is still $850k in the red from her Senate run.  Funny, because I thought with all her links to Tea Party groups, and the fact that Tea Party money was far more likely to go her way than Todd’s way, (Brunner was self-funded in the primary mostly), and too she was hooked into the money machine of another ex-politician named “Sarah,” money should have never been a problem for her.  Our campaign finished a bit in the red, even after the successful primary but regrettably less than successful general election season, but nowhere near the $850k Steelman still owes from losing to us in the primary.

This is relevant all of a sudden, because Steelman wants the Republican nomination to fill the rest of Emerson’s term in CD-8.  A nomination well know that Peter Kindercare is going to get.  UPDATE:  Scratch that: House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith, from Salem, won an eight-ballot victory over Kindercare.  I’m dancing in the streets right now over that.





Willie Brown Is On To Something

20 01 2013

San Francisco

Willie Wonka’s Chocolate Factory looks at downballot results and frets, and concludes that Obama only won because of the celebrity factor.

He kinda has a point, but let me help him along a little bit:

1.  Generically speaking, Democrat Congressional candidates got slightly more votes than Republican Congressional candidates in the national aggregate.  The reason Republicans won 233 (?) of 435 seats, which wasn’t much of a loss compared to 2010, is because of favorable Republican gerrymanders that Republican-run state legislatures ushered in during the Red Wave of 2010 drew for Congressional seats.  The Obama personality cult, as Brown puts it, that showed up to save Obama, hardly affected House seats because most of that milieu were clumped up/ghettoized in what were and still are solid blue Congressional gerrymanders.  To see an example, look at Ohio:  Colored blue for Obama’s win and Sherrod Brown’s win, but 12 of 16 House seats went Republican.

2.  And, in the process, Republican state legislatures drew themselves favorable boundaries in their own state legislative maps.

3.  In a Presidential election year, the media will pay a lot of attention to the Presidential race and quite a bit to Senate races, but not much to House races and almost no attention to anything further downballot.  A nice rule of thumb is that the more the media obsess over a race, the more likely it is that a Democrat will win it.  This is a handy explanation to explain the line of demarcation somewhere between U.S. Senate and U.S. House.  Presidential election years don’t have many Gubernatorial elections, and the only party flip I can think off offhand was in North Carolina, and that was largely expected.  So you can’t infer much there.

4.  Democrats might as well give up any hope of flipping the House in 2014.  The same gerrymandered House map which held red in spite of the very mild blue wave in 2012 will still be law in 2014, when there will be no Obama at the top of the ballot and ergo no reason for his personality cultists to show up to vote.  Even if Republican turnout is down a bit because of frustration with the current Republican surrender monkey leadership, it still won’t matter.





Danger Zone

16 01 2013

New Jersey

Washington Examiner:

AP Exclusive: US ordered delay in intern’s arrest

To save Bob Menendez’s political skin…blah blah blah.

Yeah, right, like he was ever in any real danger of losing such that this incident revealed before the election would have sank him.  Hell, I think he would have won by an even bigger margin than he did!

Because…New Jersey, the Garbage State, post-American America, not a state with normal people or an electorate replete with common sense.  And also…comprehensive immigration reform.





Finally, Diversity

15 01 2013

New Mexico

big-boi

I dedicate this post to Jack Ryan of Occidental Dissent.  This will be right in his wheel house.

Finally, the Libertarian Party has some diversity.  The man pictured above was one of about 50 total votes that Gary Johnson got for President.

Personally, I take this as putting Gary Johnson in bad light than putting “Big Boi” in a good light.  I bet you that Gary Johnson will extract a lot more self-esteem that one black voted for him than shame he should feel for wasting the time and energy of the American body politic on his never-was-going-to-amount-to-anything Presidential candidacy.  (Now, if GJ ran for Senate from New Mexico as a Republican, that’s another story.)

And also…I doubt Mr. Boi voted GJ because of Chicago School economic theory.  Doobies were more the motivation, probably.





Sour Grapes

24 12 2012

Boston

As the Mormons might say in anger, bull flipping dirt to this.  Losers always do this, rationalize their loss by coming to the postmortem conclusion that they never really anyway wanted which they were trying to attain but couldn’t.

I can prove that Romney wanted to be President.





Fifth Part

18 12 2012

America

I was reading something several days back in the conservative blogosphere which suggested that one in five black men under 30 who voted last month voted for Romney.  Well, I backtracked to that source’s own source for that, and the ultimate genesis of that contention is the emaciated barbie doll in Florida, who of course I no longer read, and a recent immigration-related column of hers.

Can anyone provide me with hard numbers to suggest that’s true?

I made a few calls and wrote a few e-mails, and from what I have gotten back, I could be made to believe that Romney got 10% of black men under 30.  But even if he did get 20%, that still means that 80% of them voted Obama, and 80% to 20% is still a blowout.

More problems with dwelling on that as if it’s some credible foreshadowing of future changes in black voting habits:  1.  White voters under 30 are sparse compared to white voters overall, and the disparity is even worse among blacks, and 2.  The black gender gap in voting (women more than men) is most severe among black voters.  Yeah, you could say that Romney got one in five black men under 30, but that probably means that all of five black men under 30 actually voted, ergo Romney got a vote.  Yes I know I’m being facetious, but not that facetious.  Another factor is if black men under 30 are the least bad black age/gender demographic for Republicans, it has nothing to do with young black men downloading the entire Milton Friedman bibliography to their Kindles.  Hint:  Name a common profession of young men, especially of young men of IQs under 115, especially a profession that a typical Republican politician tends to favor over the typical Democrat.  Here’s an extra hint if you need it:





Sheldon’s 150 Mill

13 12 2012

Las Vegas

Glenn Reynolds (“Instapundit”), writing in the NYP:

Mitt Romney and the GOP lost, but it wasn’t for lack of money. They spent a lot; they just didn’t get enough bang for the buck.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson alone donated $150 million. But Romney lost anyway, especially among unmarried women.

Which is why I think that rich people wanting to support the Republican Party might want to direct their money somewhere besides TV ads that copy, poorly, what Lee Atwater did decades ago.

Instapundit wrongly assumes that Sheldon Adelson wanted to win for the sake of Republicans winning.  As it turns out, his real aim was to keep immigration restrictionism from winning.  Therefore, in Adelson’s eyes, that $150 million he “wasted” wasn’t really wasted, because open borders Obama won, and even if Romney would have won, it would have been pretty much a BAPF open borders version of Romney that ditched Kris Kobach long ago.  I also think one of Adelson’s interests was to buy Romney off just in case he won just to make sure Romney’s Mormonism posed no risk to his casino interests.





2012 General Election in Review, National Edition

25 11 2012

“Gee, only 19 days after the election.  Why are you in such a hurry, Blogmeister?”

Before I do the state-by-state roll call, here are some interesting maps.  The first one is the county Presidential results map, the second one is a map of counties where Romney beat Obama or vice-versa by at least 20 points (“landslide map”), the third is the Red Delta map of 2012 over 2008, the fourth is the Blue Delta map of 2012 over 2008, (mainly black voters in the black belt South), and the fifth is the Red Delta map of 2012 over 2004, i.e. comparing the year Obama won re-election to the year Bush won re-election.

ALABAMA

Had the second highest white vote percentage for Romney of all states, 84%.  An anti-ObamaCare proposition won easily, and only lost the black belt counties.

ALASKA

Of course Romney won Alaska, but Alaska had one of the biggest reverse “blue” swing in 2012 compared to 2008.  But that is easily explainable because Alaskans had a big incentive to turn out and vote McCain in 2008.

ARIZONA

I don’t know what kind of dope the Democrats were smoking to think that Obama ever had a chance to win the state, after the SB 1070 fiasco.  Romney did better versus Obama than even Arizona’s own John McCain did against Obama.  Arizona has a big Mormon population.

Congressman Jeff Flake will succeed Jon Kyl in the Senate.

A disabled (?) recent Air Force combat veteran in the person of Martha McSally, running as a Republican, almost picked off Gabby Giffords’s old House seat.

In other news, Jan Brewer thinks there’s a way she can legally run for another term as Governor in 2014.  She should have been Romney’s running mate this year.

ARKANSAS

Bill Clinton’s home state:  Romney won by 23 points, all four House seats are Republican.  However, there wasn’t much of a red swing in 2012 over 2008 in Arkansas, because Arkansas was one of the few states that went the other way in 2008 compared to 2004.

Remember when Democrats used to win this state easily?

Of course, I’m not thrilled with many of the open borders cheap labor lobby Republicans that come out of Arkansas.

A medical weed liberalization proposal lost narrowly.

CALIFORNIA LOL

There was a little bit of a red swing toward Republicans over 2008.  Likewise, someone drained the Pacific Ocean of a cup of water.

Dianne Feinstein didn’t spend really dime one…because she didn’t have to.  After Democrats did well in California in the red wave election cycle of two years ago, it became perfectly obvious that Democrats don’t need to sweat.  Solyndra was basically a smokescreen for the Federal government funding the California Democrat Party to make sure that a potential (and as it turns out, a real) red wave in the middle of Obama’s first term didn’t affect California Democrats.  Turns out they need not have worried.

The real action in the state was on the proposition level:  Statewide Prop 30 and Los Angeles County Prop B, both of which won.

Prop 30 takes the top marginal state income tax rate up to 13.3%, bumps the state sales tax up a quarter percent, as well as a bunch of other new taxes.  Of course the proponents hid behind a school house, but the real drivers for the proponents were three things:  One, Hispanic gibsmedat welfare, Two, the salary, benefits and retirement packages of public employees, and three, Wall Street.

I have a secret squirrel source that is a teacher in a certain large school district in Southern California.  She tells me that until Prop 30 passed, she had a lot of furlough days, and what those are is that you have to come to work but you don’t get paid for working.  Insto, chango, right after Prop 30 passed, the superintendent and the head of the teachers union said that most or all of the furlough days are gone, good news for the teachers.  That goes to show you how magical is the power of the taxes levied by the passage of Prop 30 — They’re bringing in so much revenue before they can even be levied and collected that teachers can now get full paychecks right away.  Or, a more practical and accurate explanation is that the public school administrators and the leaders of teachers unions and politicians colluded to enact these furlough days as a scare-mongering tactic.

It’s easy to see that Prop 30 will bring in disappointingly little revenue.  But…now that the California legislature is supermajority Democrat, it’s full taxation ahead.  And also…feet don’t fail me now as the last productive industries leave California, either on foot, or as the tech industry has, on paper, even though they’re still literally perched on California soil.

And that leads me to L.A. County Prop B.  Almost all of the commerical porn produced in the United States is produced and filmed in the San Fernando Valley.  Prop B is the condom for porn actors proposition.  Already, the porn industry is promising to uproot and move to Vegas.  And I don’t blame them:  Who wants every Bush Doctrine or Stimulus Package or Pubic Option or Top One Percenter flick to be nothing more than a PSA for condom usage?  Anyone old enough to watch a porno and know what’s going on knows what a condom is and the value of their employment.

COLORADO

Thanks to both Hispanic immigration and leftist internal migration, combined 2010’s results from Colorado with 2012’s, and we may have lost Colorado for good.

Mike Coffman, who holds Tom Tancredo’s old House seat, won re-election, but not by a huge margin.

CO-7:  Anyone named Coors should just give up on politics.

A weed proposition won easily, and I think this is legalizing small amounts, nothing to do with medicinal imprimatur.  I find it interesting that it got 80k more votes than Obama in the state.  Maybe there’s a little bit of electoral hay for Republicans to be had in backing off (even if not fully legalizing) weed.

CONNECTICUT

Yawn.

Why won’t the RINOs bitching about Todd and Mourdock tell you that moderate-liberal Republican Linda McMahon has lost two Senate elections in a row in a blue state?

DELAWARE

Delawho?

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

The Politico breakdown shows that there is “No House Race in 2012″ or “No Senate Race in 2012″ for the District of Columbia.  Let’s hope it stays that way.

The only compromise in that stead I’d be open to is the David Wheeler proposal:  That a Federal district be treated as if it is part of the state that ceded it for the purpose of Federal Congressional elections.  Which means the current Washington DC residents are counted as Maryland residents for voting for U.S. Senate, and be counted as them for apportioning and voting on U.S. House members.  Of course, what Maryland has become politically, big whoop.  As Maryland is currently constituted, Democrats will always win Senate anyway.  Add more Democrats and guess what you get.

FLORIDA

Obama eked the state out because the crucial swing coorridor along Interstate 4 is becoming more and more Hispanic, especially Puerto Rican.

Connie Mack IV’s margin of loss to the incumbent Democrat he was facing for the Senate was almost as large as Todd Akin’s loss to Claire McCaskill.  Yet, no barnacles are bitching about Mack.

Let me deal with him for a moment.  Yes, him.  I wish the dark-colored dickhead would quit bitching and exit public life gracefully.  True, fraud might have sunk him, but it sunk a lot of people.  And as far as gerrymandering, yes, the Republicans in the Florida legislature that ran redistricting did happen to make life harder for him, but they didn’t set out to do that just because they had some personal axe to grind against him.  They set out to divide the state of Florida into 27 sections of approximately equal population that would be the most likely to generate the most possible Republicans in the U.S. House from Florida for the next decade.  A lot of other state legislatures did the same, based on the massive red wave on the state legislative level in 2010 meaning that a lot of Republicans ran a lot of Congressional redistricting schmes in a lot of states —  Turns out that Republicans should thank God that they did, because that was the firewall that saved the U.S. House for the Republicans in what turned out to be a mild blue wave of Obama gibsmedat non-white voters pouring out in droves to save their black President and/or their gibsmedat welfare.  While that turnout affected the Senate, because Senate elections like Presidential elections are also statewide elections, it hurt House Republicans very little because the gibsmedat herd is caged up gerrymandered in safe blue Congressional districts.  Florida’s 27 House members are 17 Republicans 10 Democrats, so the firewall worked in the case of Florida.

Now, we’ll see what the dark-colored dickhead is truly made of, whether his “conservatism” was just a play act or for real.  If he gets the notion that Republicans stabbed him in the back, he’ll go on a tirade against Republicans and conservatives, and slowly nudge back to being a standard black Democrat leftist.  For the record, I think most black conservatives are play acting, because regular black liberal Democrats have to wait in line and pay dues for a long time before they truly become someone important, while black “conservatives” get shoved to the front of the line in the Republican Party.  Fake a little bit of “conservatism,” and you get to be almost an instant celebrity.

Back to the Presidency, what happened in Florida in the general election is almost a mirror opposite of what happened in Florida during the Republican Presidential Primary.  Romney won the “liberal” counties and Newt won the “cracker” counties in the Primary, while in the general, Obama won the liberal counties and Romney won the cracker counties.  Read this.

You’ll essentially read this same analysis when I get to Ohio.

GEORGIA

They grow peaches.

Republican gains in the state legislature might well make the North Fulton/South Fulton county split a reality in the next two years.

HAWAII

Dear Karl Roverrated:  Commit the following name to memory:

Linda Lingle.

IDAHO

They grow potatoes.

And I wish Raul Labrador would get some serious opposition.

ILLINOIS

I already covered Illinois in my local review, but I’ll add that because the state legislature was Democrat dominated in 2011, they were able to engineer a Democrat-friendly Congressional map that essentially wiped out Republican gains on the Congressional level in Illinois in 2010.  That unfortunately includes Joe Walsh, and not so unfortunately includes most of the territory that was Mark Kirk’s former House seat.

INDIANA

Only one of two states that Romney was able to flip outright.

Mike Pence did win Governor, but with less than a majority.  I think a little bit of the Mourdock mess spilled one spot down on the ballot to keep Pence’s margin of victory down, and less than Romney’s margin of victory over Obama.  But a win’s a win, and now Pence is a credible 2016 Presidential candidate.

IOWA

Steve King did beat back a strong challenge from the wife (?) of the current Obama Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack by a healthy margin.  It’s the power of the immigration issue.

KANSAS

File this name away for future reference, because I think he’s primed for some good things in the future:  Tim Huelskamp.

Also, remind me later, as part of my “Spilling the Beans” series, to tell you exactly how I know what I know about what turned out to be Mitt Romney pantsing Kris Kobach.

KENTUCKY

Only big news is that the Republicans were able to flip the central part of the state district that includes Lexington, which they weren’t able to do even two years ago with the same names on the ballot.

I’ve been saying all over that Rand Paul is neither running for President in 2016 nor re-election to the Senate, that he’s grooming newly-elected Congressman Thomas Massie (KY-4) to replace him in the Senate in 2016.  (As an aside Massie won two elections in that district on November 6, one to fill the remainder of Geoff Davis’s term who resigned for health reasons, and again for the new two-year term.  Massie goes to Congress right away, and can vote in the upcoming lame duck session.)  Now with all this talk that Rand is running for President in 2016, (not making the not running for Senate in 2016 any less true), based on what I know I knew, I wonder what has changed.  I think what’s changed is that Romney didn’t win — Rand expected to support the Romney/Ryan ticket for re-election in 2016.  Projecting out, yes, risky to do, if there is no Mormon running for President in 2016, and Rand does run, he could win a fair number of states in the intermountain west in the Republican primary season, but few other than his own outside of there.

LOUISIANA

I thought Louisiana did away with its French-style beauty contest system for Federal elections and adopted the standard primary and caucus system for them.  But I’m seeing in LA-2 and LA-3 that the top two finishers were of the same political party.  And in the case of LA-3, the top finishing Republican got under 50%, so there will be a runoff with the second-place finisher, also a Republican, next month.  LA-2 was the incumbent black Congressman beating back with a majority a Democrat challenge from a Landrieu.  If you remember, that incumbent, Cedric Richmond, beat back the temporary Indochinese-American Republican who temporarily was able to nab that seat after the “Cold Cash” Jefferson scandal.

MAINE

While newly elected Senator Angus King, a former Governor, is an Independent, he is counted as a Democrat because he will caucus with the Democrats.  He replaces RINO Olympia Snowe, so political parlance calls this a party flip.  To me, I don’t see much of a change.

Full gay marriage ahead in Maine.

The ballot measure to close Shawshank State Prison failed.

MARYLAND

Need an electron microscope to find any good news from this state.  Most depressingly, a ballot proposition to allow for in-state tuition for illegal aliens passed.  Every illegal alien a turtle, I suppose.

MASSACHUSETTS

Maybe it’s better that Scott Brown was bounced out.  Other than opposing ObamaCare, he was well on his way to RINOdom.

MICHIGAN

The state’s public employee unions lost most of their ballot initatives.  Ron Paulite Kerry Bentivolio won in MI-11, and Justin Amash easily fended off a challenge in MI-3.  Other than that, no good news.

That begs the question:  When the Tea Party and the Republican Party start divorce proceedings start some time in 2013, who will get custody of Justin Amash?

MINNESOTA

I liked Kurt Bills, but I figure he had little chance.  He won only two counties, both of those in the far southwestern corner of the state.

Michele Bachmann barely hung on, and Chip Cravaack, the airline pilot who toppled long-timer Jim Oberstar in the red wave of two years ago, got overturned himself this year.

The rest is bad news.

MISSISSIPPI

Romney’s best white statewide percentage, 89%, as was to be expected.

Is the “Gore” that Roger Wicker beat for another Senate term any relation to those Gores?

MONTANA

Screwy:  Romney won the state, a Republican won the at-large House seat, but Democrats held on to U.S. Senate and Governor.

Mostly good news from the proposition end, including an immigration one.

NEBRASKA

The RINO cabal and the barnacle class tried to stab Deb Fischer in the back just like they did Todd and Richard Mourdock.  But unlike the latter two, Fischer didn’t help their efforts, and in her winning, beating old Democrat warhorse Bob Kerrey, this was the only D-to-R Senate flip from November 6.  She replaces the Cornhusker Kickbacker.

NEVADA

Mitt Romney (lost) and Dean Heller (won) got almost the same percentage of the vote, which means the Democrat running for Senate way underperformed Obama.

We may be losing Nevada for good (Hispanics).  And when the porn industry moves from the San Fernando Valley to Las Vegas because of the condom law, that process will probably accelerate.

I am hoping, probably beyond hope, that what happened on November 6 shuts the barnacle class and RINOs up about Sharron Angle.  John McCain from a state which borders Nevada couldn’t win Nevada, and Mitt Romney, a Mormon, couldn’t win a state with a plentiful Mormon population.  Put it together, and nobody could have beaten Harry Reid in between.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

This was Romney’s only real chance in New England.  Go figure — The New England Yankee pretty much cleans up in Dixie but can’t win shit in New England.

The state has two House seats, both of which Republicans flipped from Democrats in 2010, both of which Democrats flipped from Republicans this year.

Democrats hold on to the Governor’s mansion here; the Republican nominee was the 2nd place finisher to Kelly Ayotte in the Republican Primary for Senate in 2010.

Half the scant gains that Democrats made in state legislative bodies nationwide this year came from New Hampshire, which has a 400-member state House.

The only good news from the state is that a proposition permanently to prohibit a state income tax passed.

NEW JERSEY

(Insert your favorite expletives here)

NEW MEXICO

Gary Johnson could have and should have run for the Senate as a Republican.  He would have won fairly easily.  But no…he had to dick around with his not even 1% of the vote.

NEW YORK

See:  New Jersey

NORTH CAROLINA

The other state Romney flipped outright.  It’s also a Gubernatorial flip in the same direction, and that was a foregone conclusion when Punkin threw in the towel.  Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s win over the Democrat was a wider win than Romney’s win over Obama in the Tar Heel State.  Let’s hope he remembers the immigration issue.

That the media weren’t able to call North Carolina for Romney quickly after the poll closing was a clue that it wasn’t going to be Romney’s night.  Then again, the media always do this — Ceteris paribus, they’ll call states for Democrats sooner than for Republicans.  Missouri was obviously going to be a Romney win, but it took the national media hours to call it.

NORTH DAKOTA

All Republicans did well…except for moderate Senate candidate Rick Berg.  Give the GOPee a half of chance, and all Republican Senate candidates would be Rick Berg.

OHIO

Want to have some fun?

Look at the state on the Presidential level:  It’s colored blue.  Look at the state on the U.S. Senate level:  It’s colored blue.  Now look at the Congressional district wins:  Mostly red, to the tune of 12 out of 16.  This is more proof of how House elections in general and Republican-favored gerrmyandering in particular by state legislatures elected in the red wave of two years ago was the firewall this year.

A lot of my Florida analysis on the Presidential level applies to Ohio.  In the primary, Romney tended to win counties that Obama won in November, and Rickroller Santorum (the not-Romney flavor of the day) generally won the counties that Romney won in November.  It all goes to prove a point I made more than a week ago, that during the Primary and caucus season, Romney was the candidate of red voters in blue areas, not so much of red voters in red areas.  Yet we’re hearing all the talking heads bitch about Romney was “too conservative.”  Romney would not have been the nominee if there was only ever one credible “not Romney” flavor in the primaries.  It makes you wonder if there being more than one was a secret project of Romney-aligned Super PACs.

OKLAHOMA

Romney won every county, like McCain did four years ago.  A Connerly initative (anti-affirmative action) passed.

OREGON

Considering the other results, how these same voters said no to legalizing weed is beyond me.

PENNSYLVANIA

Another one of these states:  Blue overall in the Presidential map, but a lot of red in the county breakdown, blue overall in the Senate map, and a lot of red in the Congressional district breakdown.  Lou Barletta won his bigger and re-drawn PA-11 by a bigger margin than he did toppling Paul Kanjorski two years ago.

RHODE ISLAND

…is a really small state.

SOUTH CAROLINA

This was another foregone conclusion for Romney that the media deliberately drug its heels to declare.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Only interesting result is that At-Large Republican Congresswoman Kristi Noem, still as babe-a-licious as ever, won re-election by a far bigger margin than she did winning two years ago with only a plurality toppling the incumbent Democrat.

Sen. Jon Cryer is said to be 2016 material.

TENNESSEE

The only Democrat I really wanted to win was Senate candidate Mark Clayton.  But there was no way that Tennessee voters would vote for Romney then turn around and not vote for an incumbent Republican running for re-election to the Senate.

TEXAS

Comparing Romney to Ted Cruz, Romney did slightly better than Cruz overall, but Cruz did slightly better than Romney among Hispanic voters.  This means Cruz did noticeably but not too signficantly worse among gringo Texas voters than Romney, which means there is probably still apprehension about how he’ll vote on immigration issues.

UTAH

The biggest percentage shift toward the Republican Presidential candidate of all states in 2012 compared to 2008.  Obviously, McCain won Utah in 2008, but his margin was relatively lethargic by Utah Republican standards, and that was because there was sour grapes that Romney didn’t win the nomination that year.  This is kind of the reverse of what happene in Alaska this year over 2008.

I’m glad Mia Love didn’t win.

VERMONT

At the end of the day, it is what it is.

VIRGINIA

Since the professional parasites in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William County dependent on the Yankee government (Caucasian white collar gibsmedat) will always seem to make the difference, can we just give those three counties to the District of Columbia?

WASHINGTON STATE

Considering the way everything else in this state turned out, the fact that the Republican and a fairly conservative one running for Governor was competitive and finished within a few points is a damned miracle.

WEST VIRGINIA

Romney won every county, Democrat Joe Manchin won almost every county, two of three House members Republican, Incumbent Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin wins re-election narrowly.  First person truly to figure out West Virginia politics gets a Nobel Prize.

WISCONSIN

Paul Ryan didn’t help Romney win the state.  In fact, Romney didn’t win his current state (MA), his native state (MI) nor his running mate’s state.  Paul Ryan was allowed to and indeed did run for re-election to his House seat, which he won.  Curiously, it was the weakest winning margin of his career, 11 points.  I’m curious to see how Ryan Congressionally did compared to Romney/Ryan Presidentially in WI-1.

WYOMING

The only thing Democrats won is that Obama won the county that contains the plutocrat resort areas of Jackson Hole.  Everything else, Romney, Barasso, anti-ObamaCare proposition, all red.  John Barasso running for re-election to the Senate carried the same plutocrat resort county that Obama carried, which means there were people who voted Obama and Barasso at the same time.  For God’s sake, how?

And no, I have not seen a Wyoming license plate on a car in St. Louis at any point in the last two years, in spite of having seen two Hawaii plates.  That’s a running meme from my 2010 election review.





Richard Land Is Well On His Way to Barnacledom

20 11 2012

Nashville

He’s right.  Because only Hispanics are allowed to vote in Presidential elections, and because Republican-only Presidential debates held a full year or more before the actual election have Super Bowl-style ratings, I can grok the validity in his theory.

That a native born white American might be steamed that he or she has to pay out of state tuition at a public college in another state while a non-citizen is charged in-state rates?  They might as well be screaming in the cold and lonely dark.





Starting With a Conclusion

19 11 2012

Dixie

I’ll have further analysis of this when I’m finally done with my massive general election in review, of which I’m about 20% finished.

But I’m going to start you off with the conclusion:

Within Republican Presidential primaries that are competitive, white Southerners, and by “Southerner,” I mean both Deep, Mid and Outer South, are excellent proxies for how working middle class whites outside the South will vote in November.

If anyone was paying attention, we should have realized that Romney’s inability to win as much as one really Southern primary or caucus while the race was competitive was a warning sign about how he wouldn’t have been able to run up the necessary margins among working middle class whites in Great Lakes states to win them in November.  And don’t say Florida, because Gingrich, then the not-Romney flavor of the day, won the stereotypically Dixie counties north of Orlando.  And don’t say Virginia, because Romney shills aced everyone else but Ron Paul off the ballot.

During the primary and caucus season, Romney was good at winning red voters in blue areas, but was a dud in trying to win red voters in red areas.  The problem is, come November, red voters in blue areas are drowned out by blue voters in blue areas, who don’t vote in Republican primaries.  So what Romney eked out a victory over Gingrich in Florida based on Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, or eked out wins over Santorum in Ohio and Michigan based on metro Cleveland or metro Detroit?  South Florida, metro Cleveland and metro Detroit have a lot of faithful Democrats (usual demos:  Black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim) that come out in force in November.





CNN Investigates

18 11 2012

Guthrie, Texas

CNN investigates why Romney got zero votes in some precincts in Philadelphia and Cleveland?  Crickets.

There’s no foul play in either King County, Texas or those Philadelphia and Cleveland precincts.  It’s impossible to engage in voter fraud to make someone get zero votes, because it’s not worth the time and effort for corrupt black poll workers to pry open the boxes and hunt for the scant few Romney votes like needles in a haystack and remove them.  It’s a much more effective use of time and fraud to punch dozens of extra votes for Obama or give people two ballots.

Romney got zero votes in those precincts because no people who live there wanted to vote Romney.  Zero votes for Romney in those precincts isn’t evidence of fraud, it’s evidence of ghetto.

Likewise, only five votes for Obama in King County, Texas isn’t evidence of anything other than it being a conservative almost all white Christian rural Southern county.

Let’s not overthink this, people.





Coming Attractions

12 11 2012

Texas

Bloomberg:

Rove Biggest Super-PAC Loser, Trump Says Waste of Money

Karl Rove and his investors were the biggest losers on Election Day.

The Republican strategist created the model for outside money groups that raised and spent more than $1 billion on the Nov. 6 elections — many of which saw almost no return for their money.

(snip)

Donald Trump posted a message on Twitter saying: “Congrats to @KarlRove on blowing $400 million this cycle. Every race @CrossroadsGPS ran ads in, the Republicans lost. What a waste of money.”

Yes, you can take my gloating and my victory lap here as an indicator of the coming attractions in this space.  Six months ago, I merely laughed at him and called him Karl Roverrated because I knew his advice was mostly a turkey, and that George W. Bush won two national elections in spite of him, not because of him.  I figured that out because the blue wave of 2006 happened under Rove’s watch.  Now I think Rove is the literal spawn of Satan.

Also, I know more about these 527s and SuperPACs than I did six months ago, and I also know why all that money Rove raised and spent through his and other similar ones raised and spent through there was wasted, or rather, seemed to be wasted.  One man’s waste…

One bean at a time.





Cause and Effect and Effect and Cause

12 11 2012

America

You’ve seen one version or another of this meme going around ye olde internets since Wednesday:

Obama won every state that doesn’t have voter photo ID laws, Romney won every state with those laws.”

First off, it’s not literally true.  Missouri doesn’t have photo ID for voting.  At least not yet, we got temptingly close in 2011 and 2012 to getting it.  But, we don’t have it now, and didn’t have it on Tuesday, and Romney won anyway.

Second, and here’s the bigger problem:  It confounds cause and effect.

Those spreading this meme want to leave you with the impression that Obama was able to steal the states with no photo ID requirement for voting, ergo they were colored blue on election night, and the photo ID laws in states that have them was the reason Obama was not able to steal those states, ergo they wound up colored red on NBC’s skating rink.

I think it’s the other way around:  The reason photo ID states tended to vote Romney and non photo ID states tended to vote Obama is that states that are already red tend to enact photo ID laws, and states that are already blue tend to reject them.





2012 General Election in Review, Local Edition

11 11 2012

I’ll do the national review later this week.

You’ll notice the non-barking dog in the analysis below.  My assessment of that race is going to be more of a long term project.

President

I’m only analyzing it here in the local and statewide sense.

Romney beat Obama in Missouri by a 9.6% margin, while Obama’s victory over Romney in the nationwide popular vote was 2.7% at the time of this writing.  This means that Missouri was 12.3% redder than the country as a whole.  I’ve never seen a disparity that big.  However, starting in 2000, that disparity has been growing.  OTOMH, the disparity was about 3% in 2000, 5% in 2004, 8% in 2008 and now 12% this year.

In 2008, McCain beat Obama by only 0.1% in the state, but the only counties Obama carried were St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Boone, Jackson, Buchanan (St. Joseph), Jefferson, Ste. Genevieve, Washington and Iron, the latter four being white working class generally.  This year, the only counties Obama carried were St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Boone and Jackson.  Color the rest of the state map red, which means Romney did make gains at least in this state among working class whites.  Proof of that is this map from Dave Leip’s website.  What this is is comparing county-level swings towards Republicans in 2012 over 2008 relative to the national average swing to Republicans nationwide.  As you can see, voters in a lot of counties south/west of St. Louis ran, not walked, away from the Democrat Party.

Like I said earlier, that Missouri gave its electoral votes to a Mormon to be President probably makes a lot of mends for the Mormon Wars of the nineteenth century.

Governor

Easy enough.  Jay Nixon didn’t do anything bad enough to get turned out.   But I still don’t buy him as a serious Presidential contender, for that very reason — No policy Hail Marys to the end zone.  Nothing special to distinguish him.

Lieutenant Governor

I totally give up trying to figure Peter Kindercare out.  This was the year I thought the jig was up, with the bimbo eruption.  Yet, he was the only other Republican on the statewide ballot save Romney/Ryan that won, and he had a safe enough margin over his Democrat opponent to avoid what were last minute nail biter squeakers when he won this same office in 2008 and in 2004.  I was hoping he would lose, because he’s an obnoxious n-word lover…but if it’s any consolation, he only got about 2% of the vote more in St. Louis City than the typical Republican statewide candidate.

So much for what I had to say before about this — If the bimbo eruption is sufficiently forgotten, Kindercare is the Republican nominee for Governor in 2016.  Sans the bimbo eruption, he would have been this year.

Secretary of State

The most disheartening Republican statewide loss of the night, aside from the most obvious personal one for me.  Note that Libertarian + Constitution was 3.7% of the vote, if half of those go to Schoeller, he’s the next Secretary of State.  I don’t imagine any Lib or Cst would want any Democrat to be SoS.

Treasurer

Another disheartening one, but Zweifel did get a majority ergo the third parties didn’t matter.  He benefited from the power of incumbency.

Attorney General

As I said…

Other than his emotional stability, Ed Kardashian’s problem was that he got a head full of steam after coming close to toppling the Democrat in Gephardt’s old (and now gone) district, so he thought he was the world-beating shiznit.

Missouri Congressional Delegation

The only slight surprises:  Vicky Hartzler in CD-4 won by the blowout margin that she did.  She eked out a win over entrenched Democrat Ike Skelton two years ago, and with Boone County, one of Obama’s few blue counties in Missouri, now in CD-4, I would have thought the Democrat would have been able to mount a more serious challenge.  The other slight surprise is that Beaver Cleaver won a landslide in CD-5, meaning that all my “fears” that this district was flippable were unfounded, and that the NAACP’s lack of trepidation of that was for a reason.

Otherwise, the results were as predicted, and as the General Assembly engineered the map — Dividing Missouri into eight pieces of roughly equal population size that will result in the most likely chance of there being a 6-2 Republican majority for all of the next decade.

With Ann Wagner doing what she was expected to do, replace Todd Akin in CD-2, this means that of the six Republicans in Missouri’s Congressional delegation, half of them are women.  Wagner, Hartzler and Jo Ann Emerson.

Amendment 3

Of course it was going to lose.  The problem with the current Plan Nine from Outer Space is that the Governor has too much power over the state judiciary.  Amend 3’s ballot language (and perhaps its reality) implied that the Governor would get even more power.

Proposition A

Like I feared, it won easily.  I think the General Assembly will eventually water it down to the point of uselessness.  It did win in St. Louis City, but its margin was significantly weaker than statewide, and that was for all the white cops voting against it.

Proposition B

This is the third time in the last 15 years that anti-tobacco dweebs have come at us with a raise cig taxes ballot measure, and all three times it has been rejected narrowly.  Maybe they would succeed if the tax hike was relatively small.

Proposition E

Essentially another referendum on ObamaCare, won with 62% statewide and even got 43% in St. Louis City.  The first such referendum on ObamaCare in Missouri, in fact, the first one in the country, back in August 2010 won with 71% of the vote, but it could be said that that “inflated” result was on a primary day with many contested Republican races and few contested Democrat races in what everyone knew was in a light red state in what would be a red wave election year.  But…even with extra black and liberal turnout in the blue/black parts of the state, it still got 62%.

Missouri General Assembly

While Republicans lost two in the State Senate, they still have a veto-proof 24-10 supermajority.  Republicans surprisingly gained four seats in the House, lifting them to a veto-proof supermajority status in that chamber, 110-53.  Assuming united Republicans, they can steamroll Nixon.

St. Louis City Proposition R

Won handily.  Which means the City Board of Aldermen goes down from 28 to 14 seats after the 2020 census.  I think the municipal election cycle in March/April 2021 will happen before census data are released, and what makes me think that is that Irene Wee Wee Smith happened in the summer of 2001, after March/April 2001’s muncipial elections, and she whizzed in the trash can over the issue of the new aldermanic map.  Therefore, the first election cycle which will feature 14 instead of 28 aldermen, and presumably, half of those wards voting every four years, is the March/April 2023 cycle.

Jefferson County Sheriff

The sudden reddening of Jefferson County was not able to topple truth squader Sheriff Glenn Boyer, it’s a shame.  Otherwise, Jefferson County’s results in statewide races are pretty close to statewide results.  Which means that Missouri’s reddening is driven largely by working middle class whites leaving the Democrat Party.

Illinois Presidential Vote

There was a 9-point swing to Romney compared to four years ago, and quite a handful of counties flipped from blue to red.  But Obama beat McCain by 25 points in Illinois four years ago, and that one really big county in the northeastern part of the state stayed blue, so it amounted to a warm bucket of spit not.

Illinois Congressional Delegation

Republicans shed quite a few here, and that is not surprising because Illinois was one of the few states to get a new and reduced-in-number Congressional district map based in 2010 census data more favorable to Democrats, because of the Democrat Governor and legislature.  I’m not surprised that my one-time kinda-sorta neighbor, Jason Plummer, couldn’t come close to punching it through in the new IL-12, which isn’t much different from the old IL-12, because it contains almost all of the Metro East’s black population, Cairo’s black population, and my once upon a time workplace, Jackson County (Carbondale), full of blacks and SIUC liberals, and IL-12 now includes Jefferson County, and the mini-ghetto in Mount Vernon.

Illinois State Legislature

I thought that Republicans could flip both chambers because of Quinn’s unpopularity.  While they made gains in both, they did not come close to taking control of either.  While Quinn is unpopular in Illinois, Obama is popular enough in Illinois.

Illinois CCW Resolution

Passed in all ten counties it was on the ballot, the closest to St. Louis being Bond County.





What Doesn’t Kill You

10 11 2012

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

It’s time for me to come out of the “closet,” and admit something which I’ve been hinting around for months, uselessly so because I’m sure most of you were able to put the drop dead obvious two and two together.

I was a Todd Akin staffer, and almost certainly would have gone onto his permanent Senate staff, either here locally or in D.C., if he would have won.

That said, I know stuff, and over time, I’m going to start blabbing about stuff, knowing full well that there are people who would rather that I not.  One such person has the initials K.R.  Inconveniently for them, it is extremely unlikely they’ll be able to figure out who I am.  Keep your dial locked to this blog’s frequency.

As you know from reading my posts in this space over the years, and my comments on AR, I am ultra picky, almost to the level of James Edwards style parsimony, when it comes to politicians.  I don’t spare even the ones I like from my wrath when they say or do something stupid (see:  Bachmann, M.).  Most of you who read this space regularly would think that Todd would be just another lamestream/religious right Republican that I would support half the time and make fun of the other half.  But if someone as picky as me was for him for the beginning, going way back to the brutal free-for-all Republican Congressional primary in 2000 for CD-2, that was because I saw something in him that I didn’t and don’t see in most of his analogues and contemporaries — that should tell you something.  I so believed and believed in the person of William Todd Akin, and still do, that I will spend the rest of my competent lifetime if necessary engaging in an unsolicited unofficial public relations campaign to save the good reputation of a really good man.  People can vote for or not vote for anyone they want, and they can have or not have whatever opinions they want.  But nobody in any good moral sense deserves the river of shit that was sent Todd’s way, especially when the truth is handier.  The left wing was bad enough, but far worse was the treachery and perfidy and backstabbing from so-called “friends,” such as the aforementioned K.R., Sean Hannity (who is now for “but it’s not amnesty” amnesty for illegal aliens), and that emaciated barbie doll in Florida (initials A.C.).  Among many others.  But it’s like I was always told, you will find out who your friends really are and are not in a crisis.  Over time, I’m going to name names, so you can find out who your friends should and shouldn’t be.

If I was taken back in time to the start of this campaign and told how exactly things would turn out, and that I would gain weight and gray hair for it, I would do it all over again, and not give it a second thought.

For the record, I’m not doing this to grease the skids for any comeback on Todd’s part.  He looked like a walking zombie on Tuesday and Wednesday, but he was able to pull himself together to give a gracious concession speech Tuesday night.  I know why he looked that way, too, because the pressure of the weeks and months long vicious campaign of eliminationist meat grinding hate against him finally took its toll.  I came into this process more jaded, so it didn’t shell shock me, even though a lot of things about the last several months surprised me.  But when I saw the zoned out look on Todd’s face for those two days, I made up my mind then that I was going to single-handedly save his reputation.  It hit me:  The 24 years of Todd’s political career until now were spent either in the state General Assembly from districts in western St. Louis County or in Congress from CD-2, which means that until this race for Senate this year, he lived a cocooned sheltered political life within safe gerrymanders.  But going from that to a statewide race is like going from college football to the NFL.  No, Todd will never come back to politics or much of a life in the public spotlight, and I don’t blame him.  He’s probably off to Hawaii after Congress adjourns its session next month.  Hell, if I or most of his staffers ever see or hear from him again, we’ll be surprised.  I’m engaging in this PR campaign for posterity and eternity, and for the sake of common decency.

I just wonder if he thinks it was worth it — Remember, he declared for Senate on May 17, 2011, and spent a good chunk of the time between then and this past Tuesday on the road.  That’s taxing enough by itself, but combine that with the shit stream after the Fateful Sunday, and being the obvious public face of the campaign all the while (duh, he was the candidate), unlike yours truly, who was just an onboard hack for a fraction of that time, and it’s a wonder he didn’t gain weight like I did.

Another reason this was worth doing is that I got close enough to the figurative slaughterhouse of politics that I have suddenly gained a keen set of instincts on who to trust and who not to trust, and not just in the realm of politics.  This is actually my fourth campaign as a staffer.  The three previous were a Congressional campaign (won primary, lost general), another Congressional campaign (lost primary narrowly), and a third party run for U.S. Senate (no expectation to win, only real goal was to beat 2% for the third party in question to stay on the state ballot).  This is the campaign that got me oh so temptingly close to real big time elected power.  It is said that people like the sausage but hate the slaughterhouse.  Most people’s involvement with politics is purely on the sausage consuming level — voting, and no more than superficial interaction with a political campaign.  I, OTOH, almost literally watched pigs being slaughtered over these last few months.

Funny, about three months ago at this time, I was making financial plans revolving around my income as a Senate staffer.  Now, I’m in a real mess, because the temp agency I used in between getting axed from my year long stint managing the gas station/quickie mart chain in 2010 and early 2011 and me coming on with Todd, which did provide me with fairly steady mainly accounting work when I was with them, has suddenly become a dry well.  I can and will have to collect unemployment for up to 20 weeks, but that’s it.  I better hustle up some kind of job in that time.

Comment if you must, but don’t expect me to delve into everything right away.  Yes, I’m spilling beans, but one bean at a time.  I know some of you will try to ask me The Big Question right now, but I won’t answer it right now.





History Revisionism

9 11 2012

America

To listen to certain chattering heads starting on Wednesday morning, you would think that immigration was a big issue during the campaign itself.

In case you just got back from Antarctica or just got here from Mars, let me assure you that it barely came up during the actual campaign.  Mostly it was just one question during the second Presidential debate, the town hall style shindig on Long Island, the two candidates were trying to out-liberal each other on immigration.

How disinterested was Mitt Romney in the immigration issue?  When Obama got the last word in, at least in terms of the immigration back-and-forth, reminding us that “the author of Arizona’s immigration bill was Romney’s chief immigration adviser” (read:  Kris Kobach), my radar went up.  I won’t say exactly how I came to find this out (yet), but I was able to rattle strings and eventually find out for a fact that Romney and Kobach didn’t talk about immigration to each other since a few days after the Ohio Republican Primary in early March.  Now, boys and girls, why would Romney not talk to his supposed chief adviser on an important issue about that issue for months on end?  I figured it out:  Ohio was essentially the decisive primary state that gave Romney the nomination.  At that point, Romney didn’t need to pretend to be for immigration restriction any longer, so he ditched the pretense of having a business relationship with Kobach.





Krispy Christie Wanted Obama to Win

8 11 2012

New Jersey

Dear Mitt Romney:  There’s a knife in your back with Chris Christie’s fingerprints on its handle.

It’s all about 2013 and 2016.  The Krispy Kremer wants to win re-election as Governor next year, and wanted to get a little bit of the Obama fragrance on him because he knew Obama would carry New Jersey, and also he wanted an open Republican field to run for President himself in 2016.

Remember, Romney hand-picked Christie as his convention keynote speaker.  Also remember that his speech was suspiciously unremarkable and vague.  Hmmm….





Brilliant Analysis

6 11 2012

Talking Head TV

Overheard some cable news show talking head who I didn’t recognize say this within the hour:

“If Obama gets more votes than Romney, then Obama wins.  If Romney gets more votes than Obama, then Romney wins.  Because at the end of the day, it is what it is.”

Just brilliant, so brilliant.  There’s nothing left to say after that, because if you do, you might wind up coming off as cliche-spouting.  Seriously, this goofball is being paid for his analysis but I’m not?

Now, back to serious stuff.  I wish polling judges would quit giving out these “I Voted” stickers, or at least people who vote would quit wearing them.  It’s an insult to people who choose not to vote, kinda like driving a certain kind of car well known for being environmentally friendly (yes, Toyota Prius and Smart Car, I’m looking at both of you), when doing so is essentially taking your dick out and waving it at the world in a holier-than-thou my-shit-doesn’t-stink sense.

And no, I don’t buy into the notion that if you don’t vote that you can’t complain.





Games of Margins

6 11 2012

Anecdotal report based on my eyes and sources from around the St. Louis area:

Almost to a box, and compared to four years ago at this time, the turnout at red precincts is up, blue precincts down, and swing precincts, such as the one at which I am electioneering today, about the same.

It’s just about a death and taxes certainty that tonight, you will see and hear that Missouri’s ten electoral votes will want to make a Mormon the President of the United States, which is really ironic from a historical standpoint.  Let’s hope those marginally red winds are enough to blow Todd Akin into the Senate.








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