Winning Political Strategy

8 11 2013

Flint, Michigan

wantwaz

M-Live:

The newly elected Flint City Council includes a convicted killer, a man who served probation for felonious assault and two people who have gone through personal bankruptcies.

Wantwaz Davis, who beat incumbent Bernard Lawler by 71 votes to win the Fifth Ward seat, served 19 years in prison after pleading guilty to second-degree murder in 1991.

Davis said he didn’t hide his murder conviction from voters and openly talked about the conviction with residents, but it never was publicly reported. The Journal learned of the conviction Wednesday and Davis confirmed it when asked.

(snip)

Davis was 17 years old in August 1991 when Kenneth S. Morris, 27, was killed at his home on Grace Street. Morris died after being shot three times — once each in the hip, abdomen and mouth, according to The Flint Journal archives.

Of course he would openly campaign on his past life as a murderer.  He needs votes from the black community, doesn’t he?

Because…keepin’ it real.  And also…mustn’t act white.





Joke’s On Us

6 11 2013

New York City

Elections have consequences.  Such as having to watch victorious oil drillers and their ’70s Afro-Puff teenage sons do stupid dances.





Last Night

6 11 2013

Virginia, New Jersey, New York

This won’t be a hard analysis.

New York City’s brief experiment with semi-sanity is now done, and it can now safely resume its inevitable path to Detroit status.

Krispy Christie won a second term as Governor in a deep blue state by being pretty liberal himself, including being almost 50-50 among Hispanics.  But if he thinks all those Hispanics and white liberals that voted for him in 2013 will vote for him in 2016 for President versus generic Democrat in New Jersey and elsewhere, he’s only kidding his own fat ass.  Even yesterday in the Krispy landslide, the same people in an exit poll which closely mirrored the actual election results pick HRC +6 over Christie in a hypothetical Presidential matchup in New Jersey.  And that’s an electorate, mind you, whose blue voters were already run out a few weeks ago to send Cory Booker to the Senate, so they had no reason to turn out again yesterday.

As for Virginia, the three counties in NoVa, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, are starting to have the same stranglehold on Virginia politics that Cook County has over Illinois politics.  Add in RINO establishment treason and the fake Potemkin libertarian financed by an Obama/Clinton bundler from Austin, and the outcome was inevitable.  It’s a miracle that McAuliffe didn’t get a majority, only beat Cuccinnelli by 2.5 points.  As for other Commonwealth races, that black preacher clown act running for Lieutenant Governor as a Republican lost, thankfully, and the Republican running for state AG that was pretty much a drop-in replacement for Cuccinnelli won, albeit very narrowly.  And Republicans won 67 of 100 seats in the House of Delegates (state House), so “Big Mac” will see none of his agenda come to pass.





The Next Great Mulatto Messiah Hopeychanger

16 10 2013

Newark, New Jersey

booker

He’ll go to the Senate, do a few days of work, then start running for President in 2016.

Don’t laugh.  Remember that guy named Barack?





You’ve Got Your Single Issue Referendum

16 09 2013

New York City

lhotablasio

SQF.





Up and Out

11 09 2013

New York, Colorado

Joe Lhota wins the Republican Primary and avoids the runoff.  Bill de Blasio is leading in the Democrat Primary but is teetering on the brink of the crucial 40% mark.

John Morse (Colorado Springs) and Angela Giron (Pueblo) are both out.  I know that more people signed the petition to recall Morse than voted for him to be state senator the last time he ran in his regular cycle.  Republican turnout in early voting bested Republican voter registration in his district by about a 15% margin, so his being turned out is not a surprise.  As for Giron, the partisan analysis of who turned out in early voting showed that Democrats voted way more than Republicans in that district, by about a 2:1 margin, and that probably translated well to the regular election day turnout, but she still got kicked out anyway.  Here’s the topper:  The recall margin was 56-44 in Giron’s case but only 51-49 in Morse’s case.  So the area in which Democrat turnout was higher was the area where the recall margin was higher.  Furthermore, the total number of votes cast was twice as high in Pueblo as it was in Colorado Springs, 34k to 17k.

Remember, Romney didn’t win Colorado and only got 54% of the state’s white vote in the process.  The above proves that he could have, except “he” in particular couldn’t have because the same people that showed up to kick out Morse and Giron felt no need to turn out and make a man President who often used the left wing weasel phrase “gun lobby” during the campaign.

And also…don’t feel too bad for Michael Bloomberg (bringing the subject matter full circle, being as this post started on the matter of his replacement) that he wasted $350,000.  We’re talking about a man whose $5 billion increase in net wealth last year by itself would make him the world’s 248th richest person.  Bloomberg wasting $350k gives him about the same level of discomfort as me spending a quarter more than I needed to in a parking meter.

UPDATE

Volokh has some good analysis of the paradox I noticed.

UPDATE II

PPP sat on a poll showing Giron being recalled by a 12 point margin, which is precisely the margin by which she was kicked out.  PPP didn’t release because Obama beat Romney in Giron’s district by 20, and they thought there was something wrong with their methodology.  Really, I don’t blame PPP, because it was a surprise to a lot of us the way it worked out in reality.





New Management?

7 09 2013

Australia

tonyabbott

Or more of the same?

Remember, he tried to railroad Pauline Hanson into jail when he was Attorney General in a John Howard government.

In Australian elections, it’s a matter of no shirt, no shoes, service:

australia-votes-2013

Tuesday is going to be a fairly big day electorally speaking.  Both the New York City Mayoral primaries and the Colorado State Senate recall elections are on that day.





Tom Edsall, Meet Steve Sailer

4 09 2013

America

Shorter version of this:  The Sailer Correlation, pure and simple.

“What’s the Sailer Correlation,” asks the peanut gallery and the noobs?

Answer:  Since 2000, in American Presidential politics, the Republican Party is the party of white non-Jewish adults who are/were/want to be involved in traditional nuclear families (heterosexual marriage and procreation therefrom), and the Democrat Party is the party of everyone else.  The Sailer Correlation, as I just stated it above, is the executive summary of the combined factors of the dirt gap/mortgage gap/baby gap/marriage gap.

Edsall never really answers the question he poses in the title of his article, except in a superficial sense at the end:

Political commitments are molded by a wide-ranging array of forces from economic security to the type of job a voter holds to his or her place in a status hierarchy or a community. This complexity, and the built-in potential for new fissures, means that any political coalition — whether it’s constructed on the model of a big tent or of a working partnership — is inherently fragile. How well equipped is the Democratic Party to smooth over differences between its wealthiest and its poorest supporters, its most culturally liberal and its most culturally traditional voters? Does the Republican Party have the ability to fracture this new Democratic coalition?

Like I said, the Democrat Party on the Presidential level is the party of “everyone else.”  Edsall is asking how the Democrats can keep the motley coalition of “everyone else” together and if the Republican Party has the ability to drop a ten ton wedge in its middle.

First answer:  Yes, the Democrats do have a way to keep their coalition together, in spite of what would seem to be massive differences between the individual parts of the coalition and the contradictions of such a coalition even existing.  How do they keep it together?  Again, we turn to Steve Sailer:  The answer is KKKrazy Glue, that is, the left and Democrats fomenting fear of conservative white people and groups, reminding their strung together coalition of “everyone else” that they have a “common enemy” that they must stay united to fight.

Second answer:  The answer is no.  He actually thinks the Stupid Party is that smart?  Why would they try to break up the Democrat coalition when they’re pissing all over their loyal voters and trying to drive them out of any real control of the party?

Third answer:  Even though there wasn’t a third question here.  Edsall asks how the Democrat-left coalition can stay together.  The question he should be asking is how the Republican-right coalition can stay together, when their only voters are white adults involved in traditional nuclear families, and that the party at the establishment elite level is embarrassed by the fact, and is doing everything they can to get them out of the party, to appeal to Democrat voters who already have a party (the Democrat Party), and is doing nothing politically to help the cause of (again with the Sailer) affordable family formation so that the Republican base can constantly replenish itself.  People who have all their eggs in one basket shouldn’t be turning the basket upside down, but that’s just what the Republican establishment is doing.

Edsall also writes:

Democratic strength is now concentrated in fewer but more heavily populated areas. Polarization has intensified as voters in over half the nation’s counties cast landslide margins for one presidential candidate or the other. These tendencies are intensifying and have spilled over to Congressional elections, leading to legislative paralysis. Self-perpetuating clusters of the like-minded lead voters and their representatives away from the center.

Except there is no “legislative paralysis.”  There is Barack Obama and his executive branch assuming more power by the day, and the surrender monkey caucus of Boehner/Cantor/McCarthy et al. are twirling in the wind and getting as tongue tied as Porky Pig as if they have no idea what’s going on or if they either don’t care or actually approve of Obama assuming dictatorial power.  I’ll ask you:  Has ObamaCare been mortally damaged?  Who has been impeached or disciplined for DACA?  If Congress turns Obama down on Syria and he marches us there anyway, will he be impeached?





The Hispanic Non-Vote

29 07 2013

Bakersfield, California

Breitbart:

CA Republican Wins Seat in Dist. with 60% Hispanics, 22-Pt. Dem Adv.

A Republican in California won a state Senate seat on Wednesday in a District in which Democrats have a 22-point advantage and that is 60% Hispanic.

Andy Vidak, the Republican farmer, won the special election runoff for the 16th District Senate seat when his opponent, Democrat Leticia Perez, a Kern County Supervisor, conceded on Wednesday, a day after voters cast their ballots. Vidak had 54% of the vote to Perez’s 46%.

Perez had initially conceded two months ago when the special election was held. But a recount put Vidak under the 50% threshold that was needed to avoid a runoff, and Perez took back her concession nearly a week after the initial election. The seat became vacant when the Democrat, who won the seat in 2010 by 21 points, resigned to work for Chevron. Democrats thought, especially with a Hispanic female candidate, the seat would be a shoo-in for them. The veto-proof supermajority Democrats have in the state Senate is now imperiled with Vidak’s victory.

I don’t read much into this, especially in terms of the “vaunted” Hispanic vote.  2010 was a midterm, while this election was a special election in a non-standard cycle.  While the district is 60% Hispanic, I bet the electorate last Wednesday was not even 30% Hispanic, maybe not even 20%.  In November 2012, a Presidential election cycle, Hispanics were only 21% of the California statewide electorate even though they’re on the verge of becoming the outright majority of the state’s population.  Midterm election cycles have lower non-white turnout than Presidential election cycles generally, and special elections have an even lower non-white turnout.  Thefore, Vidak’s win was almost entirely a function of the white vote shifting and Hispanics staying home.

We’ll see if Vidak is able to hold on to this seat when it’s up during its next normal election cycle, in his case, 2014.  If his term was normally up during a Presidential election cycle, he would be toast.  Since the Democrat that left won by 21 points during a midterm cycle in 2010, Vidak might be a short timer anyway.

UPDATE

The district isn’t even 60% Hispanic.  Here’s the truth.  Now that we know the district is only 35% Hispanic and 52% white, this probably means Hispanics were probably under 10% of voters in this special election.





Your Patriotic Duty

4 07 2013

Springfield, Illinois

The 17-year olds of Illinois can now vote in primary elections that determine the party nominees for general elections if the given 17-year old will turn 18 by the day of the general election.

Many states allow 17-yos to take place in Presidential primaries or caucuses if they turn 18 by the November election day.  Illinois will now allow them to do that for statewide and local election cycles, too.

There will be very very few new voters for this.  But I can see a situation where the marginal increase of 17-year olds in a primary will help a whackjob leftist Democrat win a Democrat primary, and if it’s in a swing district, this might help the Stupid Party.  But the odds of that are slim.





Boston Strong

25 06 2013

Massachusetts

markey

Fool me once, Scott Brown, shame on you.  Fool me twice, Gabriel Gomez, shame on me.  At least Scott Brown pretended to be an immigration patriot when he was running; of course, he reneged once he actually got into the Senate.

I’m so proud that Massachusetts voters weren’t fooled a second time.  They told the open borders RINO/liberal Hispanic to go pound sand.

In fact, if I lived in the state, I would have actually voted for Ed Mahhhhhhhhhhhhhkey just to keep Gomez from winning.  The last thing we needed, especially now in the middle of the immigration debate when we’re begging the Stupid Party from swinging the borders even more wide open than they are already, is for the Stupid Party to get it in their wee little brains that pandering to Hispanics yields positive electoral results.  That said, I am totally confident that they won’t interpret the proper message from Gomez not winning today.

And it should be no surprise that Markey is probably going to beat Gomez by at least upper single digits, compared to the last time Massachusetts had a special election for Senate, when Scott Brown won by 5 points.  My vote for Markey would have been actually taking two votes away from Gomez, because I surely wasn’t going to vote for him, which is taking one vote away from him, and my Machiavellian vote for Markey put Gomez yet another vote behind.  I wonder how many Massachusetts voters had the same attitude as mine and actually did this.

UPDATE 6/26

V-Dare goes into more detail. The way this reads, this Gomez was such a clown act that I’m disappointed that he only lost by 10 points and not 20. Except that Ed Markey wasn’t much more competent, though all he had to do was hold his index finger to his nose and walk ten feet in a straight line in order to win.





Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

5 06 2013

Salem

As was to be expected.  We can’t read too much into this nationally; the district is yellow dog Republican.  Maybe we can read something into the fact that the Democrat only got 28% of the vote; mind you, this is the newly drawn CD-8 which includes southern Jefferson County, whose people are historically economically not quite well to do white Democrats.  The real race was the CD-8 Republican central committee’s caucus that picked their nominee for this special election;  remember, it was supposed to have been a formality to pick Peter Kindercare, but Jason Smith, then just a State Rep from Salem, came out of nowhere to wage an eight-ballot battle with Kindercare that he eventually won.

For the first time in a very very very long time, the person who holds CD-8 will NOT be from Cape Girardeau.

This might have at least a one-seat effect on immigration.  Jo Ann Emerson, who left CD-8 early to take a big money lobbying job, was pretty much open borders and amnesty all the way, mainly as a sop to well off Delta farmers who wanted cheap stoop labor.  Since Smith isn’t from The Cape and not too close to the Delta, and instead from the hilly/Ozarks part of CD-8, agribusiness pressure might not get to him.





Public Service

31 05 2013

Massachusetts

For some reason, this excellent AR article about the Massachusetts Senate Special Election to replace John F’n Kerry isn’t taking comments.

So let’s use this post to comment about the story.

My take:

My preferred candidate of all the ones that ran was the Democrat Congressman, named Lynch, from Boston’s South End.  He’s a remnant of the all-but-gone Irish-white working class of the area that protested deseg and voted George Wallace.  I am not at all happy that an open borders Hispanic in the person of Gabriel Gomez got the Republican nomination, and as it turns out, Congressman Ed Markey got the Democrat nomination instead of Lynch.  So no matter who wins, the politics of the Gang Bangers of Eight bill won’t change, as Kerry would have been a yes vote, and either Markey or Gomez will vote yes.

As of right now, I would vote for neither one.  But if I was forced into casting a vote, I would vote “for” Markey just to keep Gomez from winning.  If it seems close, I would vote for Markey, if it’s obvious that it’s going to be a Markey blowout (Massachusetts’s political climate is such that a Gomez blowout is impossible), I would stay home.  If Gomez wins, the Stupid Party racial pandering machine is going to have an orgasm.  We don’t need for them to get it in their wee little brains that pandering to non-whites is a politically successful strategy.  I suppose the ideal outcome is if Markey wins but only narrowly, such that it means that Gomez doesn’t go to the Senate, but a razor thin margin for Markey doesn’t mean that nobody can blame it on Gomez being “too right wing LOL.”





Prediction

5 03 2013

City Hall

Slay hasn’t done anything bad enough to get turned out.  Lewis Reed really hasn’t made any credible case against Slay, much less for himself.  Meanwhile, Slay at least has made a case for himself, even though it’s a half-baked case full of distortions.  I think Slay wins easily.

It’s now or never in one way — If a credible black like Lewis Reed can’t knock off Slay now, St. Louis might never have a black mayor ever again.  Because the 2010 Census showed that the city was slightly more white and slightly less black than in 2000, and the trend is not abating even if it is slow.  The point is, just as South Suburban Cook County is the place where South Side Chicago ghetto blacks are being dumped off, and Prince Georges County, Maryland is the similar dumping ground for D.C. blacks, North St. Louis County serves the same function for North City blacks, slowly but surely.  Four years from now, eight years from now, twelve years from now, and the St. Louis City electorate will be less and less black and more and more white.

It’s like I said earlier here — If Slay wins today, there’s nothing stopping him from being Mayor for the rest of his life if he wants.





For Tonight

26 02 2013

Chicago

I’m cross-posting an AR post I made several days ago here.  If Debbie Halvorson does not win tonight, the usual suspects will gloat and do victory laps.  That’s when you should all come right back here and read this post.

***

This issue [of Jesse Jackson Jr's guilty plea -- Ed.] and the 2nd Amendment issue are kind of crossing wires because the special election to fill IL-2 (JJ Jr’s old seat) is coming up [Today -- Ed.]. You keep hearing that a white woman with an A rating from the NRA could win it, and that Bloomberg is pouring bags of money into the area to keep that from happening, in order to “stick it to the gun lobby.” All that invective is so full of it.

1. The white woman’s name is Debbie Halvorson. She represented the old IL-11 in Congress for one term, 2008 to 2010. Swept in under Obama’s coattails, swept out in the red wave of 2010. The old IL-11 was a largely outer Chicago suburban transitioning to rural district, and was light red in political character. Her A grade from the NRA comes solely from her one term representing that district.

2. In 2011, Illinois (as well as all states) re-drew their House maps, not only in accordance to new census data, but some states gained or lost Congress seats. Illinois lost seats.

3. Where Halvorson lives, which was in IL-11 from 2001 to 2011, she is now in IL-2. Which has a bunch of the ghetto south side of Chicago and blackening south suburban Cook County, plus some outer suburbs to the south and southwest of Chicago.

4. Last year, Debbie Halvorson did challenge Jesse Jackson Jr in the Democrat primary in IL-2, and Jackson beat her 71% to 29%. That is a good indicator of IL-2′s racial demographics.

5. The ONLY reason Halvorson has a chance now is because there were/are so many credible blacks are in the race. She could in theory eke out a plurality win. If there were only one or two credible blacks, she wouldn’t have a chance. Three or more, she has a chance.

6. But politicians want to win elections and keep on winning elections. She’s already “changed her mind” (“grown”) on 2nd Amendment issues. Taking her apparent positions right now, the NRA would probably grade her as a D. She’s just aware of her new district.

7. Doesn’t matter to Michael Bloomberg that she has. He wants any illusory victory over the “evil gun lobby” that he can peddle for propaganda purposes. He might pour more than $3 million of his own money into this race by the time it’s over.

8. And what will this money be used for? I am all but positive that someone has taken Bloomberg aside and explained to him the differences between the Chicago Way and New York politics. This money is probably being used as a slush fund to buy off and buy out as many credible blacks out of the race as possible, leaving it basically a one-on-one race between Halvorson and the “strongest” black (whoever that is deemed to be) [That now seems to be Robin Kelly, who was the Democrat nominee for State Treasurer in 2010 -- Ed.]. This is a hint for a “future attraction” on my own blog (a really big bag of beans to spill), but if someone wants you out of a political race badly enough, their first tactic will be trying to out and outright buy you off and buy you out, either you personally or members of your staff. It’s not just a Chicago thing, and not just a Democrat thing — I can assure you of that, first hand.

9. If a black wins, all it will mean is that a black wins a Democrat primary in a heavily black district. Ordinarily, that’s about as insightful as “dog bites man.” But you know Michael Bloomberg will do a victory lap, and the lapdog media and its highly paid professionals won’t bother to do this same analysis questioning the whole set of affairs which I just did for you for free.

10. I find it ironic that Bloomberg and his money is being used (in all likelihood) to ensure the election of a black person, while he himself is doing everything he can behind the scenes to depopulate New York City of blacks.

***





Mike’s Money

16 02 2013

Chicago

P-D:

Bloomberg ready to spend $2M in Chicago primary, focused on guns

A vacant Chicago congressional seat has become the epicenter in the national battle over gun control, with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg big-footing into the Windy City trying to defeat a candidate over her previous pro-gun stances.

Politico reports that Bloomberg, the billionaire independent who has emerged as a national leader in the pro-gun-control movement, is prepared to put $2 million into the upcoming Democratic primary special election Feb. 27 for the seat left vacant by former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., D-Ill. (As of last week, Bloomberg’s superPAC had already spent in excess of $1.2 million.)

Bloomberg’s focus: Defeat candidate Debbie Halvorson, a former congresswoman who landed an “A” rating from the NRA for her previous opposition to gun control.

Halvorson — perhaps eying the different demographics of the newly redrawn Chicago-area district — has since disavowed most of those stances, and now favors universal background checks and other gun-control measures. But that hasn’t stopped Bloomberg’s determination to derail her candidacy, with the clear goal of making a national example of her — a “loud warning to a lot of members of Congress that it’s no longer safe to side with the NRA,” as one political consultant put it.

The strategy already shows signs of working. Halvorson, as the only white candidate in a field of 17, was leading and appeared poised to win, if only by splitting the black vote. But she has slipped from the lead since Bloomberg began his airwaves assault.

If this strategy works, then all it will have accomplished is to elect a black in a Democrat primary in a heavily black Congressional district.  Big whoop.  The ONLY reason Halvorson has a chance is because there are more than two credible black contenders in the mix.  If there were only two credible blacks, one of those two would win fairly easily.  If there was only one credible black, he or she would be an obvious shoo-in.  But with at least three credible blacks, if they evenly split the black vote, Halvorson could eke it out.

And as I predicted, Halvorson herself is already starting to change her mind.

Michael Bloomberg is a New Yorker, and obviously does not get the Chicago Way.  I’m sure someone has already taken him aside and explained to him that it would be a better use of his Super PAC’s money not to get involved in this race’s media campaign directly, but instead offer jobs and sinecures to all but the most credible and strongest black candidate to get them to drop out of the race one by one.

I find it ironic that Bloomy is getting involved in this race to make sure a black person beats a white person in Chicago, when he himself is trying to make as life as uncomfortable as possible for blacks in his own New York City that they willingly leave the city.

UPDATE 2/18

The field of blacks is already starting to thin out.





On March 5

10 02 2013

City Hall

If Slay wins, then:

1.  He’s Mayor for life if he wants to be.

2.  The new Mississippi River Bridge will be named after him. (*)

3.  Half of everything new in St. Louis City until about the year 2050 will be named after him.

And I’m saying this as someone who has put both Slay and Lewis Reed under an electron microscope, and yet still hasn’t been able to discern a real public policy difference between them.

(*) – The Poplar Street Bridge is technically known as the Bernard F. Dickmann Bridge, two-term Mayor from 1933-41.  Naming a river bridge after a St. Louis Mayor wouldn’t be unprecedented.

 





I’d Care, Except…

5 02 2013

City Hall

Snoozer of a story.

Why don’t I care more?  Name me a real public policy difference between Francis Slay and Lewis Reed, such that I’m supposed to give a shit that one of these two wanted the third guy out of the race so that he could beat the other.

And if your answer involves the world “Romanik,” I will immediately revoke your oxygen consumption privileges.





Hispandering Doesn’t Work

12 11 2012

Mexico Del Norte

Hispanic voters in Presidential elections since 1980:

1980:  Carter 56%, Reagan 35%, Anderson et al. 9%.  D+21
1984:  Mondale 61%, Reagan 37%.  D+24
1986:  Reagan signs amnesty bill, Simpson-Mazzoli Act
1988:  Dukakis 69%, Bush 30%.  D+39  (i.e. Hispanics rewarding Republicans for amnesty)
1992:  Clinton 61%, Bush 25%, Perot 14%.  D+36
1996:  Clinton 72%, Dole 21%.  D+51  (moderates are how you get Hispanic votes)
2000:  Gore 62%, Bush 35%.  D+27
2004:  Kerry 58%, Bush 40%.  D+18  (Even with Bush slinging the borders wide open, canceling immigration law enforcement, and handing out subprime mortgages to Hispanics like candy, a near-billionaire plutocrat still beats the Republican by 18 points)
2007:  John McCain, Ted Kennedy and George W. Bush push hard for amnesty
2008:  Obama 67%, McCain 31%.  D+36.  (That’s Juan McAmnesty to you.)
2012 March:  Romney ditches Kris Kobach to embrace the amnesty and cheap labor lobby
2012 November:  Obama 71%, Romney 27%.  D+44

The future:  Republicans push for more amnesty and more open borders, Andrew Cuomo beats Marco Rubio in the 2016 Presidential election by 45-50 points among Hispanics.





A Month Is Eternity In Politics

9 09 2012

American Political History

Jimmy Carter lead Ronald Reagan in the polls 58% to 33% in mid-February 1980.  The only state to have voted by mid-February was Iowa, and George H.W. Bush narrowly beat Reagan in the Hawkeye Cauci.  Polling a hypothetical race between Reagan and Carter in mid-February was about as useful as teeth on hens, because it was thought that Bush was the front-runner.  Too, Jimmy Carter had a Ted Kennedy problem that season, but it was more of an acute rather than a chronic problem.  It wasn’t until April 5 that Reagan had won nine of the previous ten primaries and caucuses, a long enough winning streak to make him credible as a Republican nominee in the minds of most people, and Ted Kennedy was laughed out of the Democrat games, such that Reagan-Carter polling was useful.  Still, Reagan couldn’t break the low 30s versus Carter, and only broke 40 after the post-convention bounce in July.  As late as mid-October 1980, Reagan was only polling at 39%.

John Anderson, the third party candidate in the race that year, polled as high as 24% in late May.  His numbers predictably went down as the two-party dynamic heated up in the late summer and fall.

The actual vote?  Reagan 50.7%, Carter 41%, Anderson 6.6%.

Polls, schmolls.





Wearing the Red Trunks

13 08 2012

Missouri

First off, remember that Dave Drebes is the man who thought that Carnahan could actually beat Clay in CD-1-D.

Be that as it may, Drebes already has Chris Koster penciled in as the winner of AG in November vs Ed Kardashian (as do I), and Clint Zweifel beating Cole McNary for Treasurer (I think McNary can win).  Therefore, he thinks that GOV-D in August 2016 will be between Koster and Zweifel.  Remember, Koster changed from Republican to Democrat in 2006, just before he ran for AG the first time.  That he started life as a Republican is no surprise to me, because his father was Rich Koster, once upon a time GM at Channel 5 and the conservative panelist on Channel 9′s Donnybrook.  Zweifel will use that as  an issue, if that’s the race.

But I’m also thinking about the Republican side for 2016, assuming Nixon wins a second term, and I think he will.  Current state government statewide elected office holders are Peter Kindercare and Tom Danforth.  Now, I don’t know if Kindercare will win re-election as Lieutenant Governor, and even if he does, I think he’s too much damaged goods for Governor (to wit:  this year).  Even though Tom Danforth has already won a statewide primary and then election for Auditor, and would have to do so again in 2014 to make himself credible for Governor, I don’t know if Missouri Republican voters or voters in general will warm up to a Danforth machine cog as Governor.  I’m penciling in Cole McNary and Shane Schoeller as the winners this year of Treasurer and Secretary of State respectively in my mind, but those are big assumptions.  If they both win, both will have one term in their respective offices under their belt by 2016, and their credibility for Governor will depend on their keeping their names in the news for one good reason or another.

As an aside, House Speaker Steve Tilley has already resigned just months from being TLed out, to go back to his medical practice, so Schoeller will serve as the temporary Speaker until the new legislative session begins in January.  Schoeller’s only real work as temporary Speaker will be to guide the short September special session, where the legislature will try to override Nixon’s vetoes of bills that the General Assembly passed in the previous session.

All that might be academic, though.  I’m going to drop a dark horse name for GOV-R in 2016:  Blaine Luetkemeyer.  Currently the Congressman from CD-9, about to be redistricted to CD-3.  Lives in St. Elizabeth, in Miller County, just south of Jefferson City ergo the state capital ergo the Governor’s mansion, so he’s rural and close to the job.  Would be 64 years old in 2016.  He’ll win re-election this year in the new CD-3 and probably also in 2014, (even if 2014 happens to be a blue wave year, the new CD-3 has more Republican voters in St. Charles County in that new district than the old CD-9 did), so by 2016 he will be a four-term Congressman.  I don’t hear much about him, so I don’t think he’s very distinguished and consequential in Congress, other than voting the right way most of the time.  I take that as a hint that he’s thinking about running for something else, and the logical choice would be Governor in 2016.  It couldn’t be Senate, because Blunt will probably run for re-election in 2016 and Todd Akin in 2018.  The timing and geography all point to Governor.





The Mexican

2 07 2012

Mexico City

Remember him?

He will be the next President of Mexico.

Funny, he doesn’t look anything like any given FOB Mexican sneaking across the fiction that we used to call our southern border.

Pay attention to the blockquote below.

FNC:

But his top challenger, leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, refused to concede, saying he would await a full count and legal review. He won roughly 31 percent of the vote, according to the preliminary count which has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. Lopez Obrador in 2006 paralyzed Mexico City streets with hundreds of thousands of supporters when he narrowly lost to President Felipe Calderón.

“Paralyzed Mexico City’s streets with hundreds of thousands of supporters.”

Sound familiar?

Remember the great amnesty rallies of 2006 in American cities with substantial Hispanic populations?

At the time, Rush Limbaugh (of all people) read a piece by one of the lamer con mags he likes to quote, which stated that street theater with protesters numbering in the hundreds of thousands were both a normal occurrence in Latin America and also accomplished nothing.  Therefore, the street rabble we were seeing flood the streets of Hispanic-heavy cities like Los Angeles that year were doing nothing more than engaging in the typical public theatrical hysterics that Hispanics love so much, and that it by itself would accomplish nothing.  To wit:  Above.  The pro-Obrador street rabble didn’t result in him getting power in 2006, and certainly not in 2012.





Fifteen Minutes

1 07 2012

Franklin County

Washington Missourian asks:  Why do the perennial candidates keep on running when they have no chance?

Answer:  It’s the way they get their fifteen of fame.

And, sometimes, in the case of a red candidate running in a deep blue district or vice-versa, sometimes, the main contender gets caught in bed with a dead boy or live girl.





Likability Is Overrated

27 06 2012

I’m getting sick of talking heads analyzing political candidates based on their “personal likability” factor, that is, which one of the two or more would most people like to live next door to and share a beer with.

99.999999% of people will never live next door to or share a beer with a future, current  or former President of the United States.  It makes as much sense for people to vote for a President based on likability as it does for people to make household budgeting decisions considering the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in their assets column.





Involuntary Servitude

25 06 2012

Obamaland

Orzsag:  Make voting mandatory.

This is from Bloomberg News’s sidebar about Peter Orzsag:

Peter R. Orszag, vice chairman of global banking at Citigroup and an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, was President Obama’s director of the Office of Management and Budget.

All three strikes in one sentence.  Yerrrrr out, Peter.  Hit the showers, (where Rahm, Obama, Reggie Love, Sandusky et al. are waiting for you).

If SCOTUS borks the ObamaCare individual mandate this week, then there’s no way in hell they would uphold legislation mandating that people vote.  Therefore, it would have to go to a Constitutional Amendment, and there’s no way you’ll get 38 states’ legislatures to agree to that, when the partisan motivation is obvious.





Kill Me Now

16 06 2012

Oh brother.

Bill James wants to sabermetricize politics.

How many World Series titles or AL Pennants did the Oakland A’s win during the Moneyball era?  Exactly zero.  In fact, they won all of one playoff series in that time, but lost to the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS in 2006, and of course the Cardinals beat the Tigers in the World Series that followed.

This might make Michael Barone and George Will happy, but the rest of us will fall asleep.





“Sued”

11 06 2012

PhillyBurbs.com:

CR board member calls for banning HS football

(snip)

“… I’m extremely scared we will eventually be sued over injuries suffered in sports.”

That’s what it’s all about, worrying about the line item in the district budget that reads, “Insurance.”

Related:  Why They’re Coming For Football





Who Is He?

8 06 2012

He looks like he could be a senior partner in any given public relations firm in any given major American city.

 





Money Means Moochers

7 06 2012

MSD’s bond issue passed on Tuesday.

More public money means…

You guessed it.

Worse sewers.  (In the long run)





It’s RINO Hunting Season

9 05 2012

Okay, will Obama admit that he has a problem?

Four in ten West Virginia Democrats (closed primary — hint — no Republican chaos here) chose an incarcerated Federal felon who is doing time in Texas rather than the incumbent Democrat President.  Yes, I know WV is a state Obama didn’t win in 2008 and won’t in 2012.  But this ought not happen to an incumbent President much less a credible candidate for President in any state.

According to someone I follow on Twitter, the felon actually beat Obama in at least one county.  (UPDATE:  He won eight counties)

The media drag out the “protest vote” canard whenever a hard- to far-right winger does well in an election, and it’s nonsense because in most cases, the right winger is one of many candidates on the ballot.  In this case, this definitely was a protest vote — I hardly think the 40% who voted for the felon voted for him because they wanted him to be President.

INDIANA

What jumps out at me?  The margin.  21 points.

The final credible polling last week had Mourdock up by 10.  Yet he won by 21.  What explains the discrepancy?

Three theories:  1.  Tea Party support within Republican plebiscites runs under the radar, 2. The pollsters were massaging the polling results in favor of Lugar, 3. Mourdock had momentum — Over time, he went from way behind, to a little behind, to tied, to slightly ahead, to noticeably ahead.  Once he got noticeably ahead, he reached a critical mass of credibility that busted the dam and drove even more people in his column.

It’s probably a combination of all three.

Joe Donnelly is abandoning IN-2 to run for Senate, and his own Democrat Primary was a one-man event.  I guess he read the tea leaves, because he’s leaving the Democrat reservation on Operation Gunrunner.

Watch for a change in Orrin Hatch, too.  Of course, he started to split away from the RINO herd when the RINO hunters picked off Bob Bennett.  That’s the thing about politicians — They pay attention to election results for other politicians.  Don’t you think the CEO of Coca-Cola reads Pepsi’s financial statements?

Lugar can’t run third party, because Indiana law apparently prevents primary losers from running as an independent out of spite.

Luke Messer, the party favorite, won IN-6-R to replace Mike Pence (who was unopposed in GOV-R yesterday).  My favorite, Travis Hankins, finished 11 points back in 2nd place, but he did get more than twice the votes of the third place finisher, one Don Bates, who ran ads calling Hankins an “extremist.”  I’m happy with that at least.

Dan Burton is retiring from IN-5, and one of the candidates in the Republican field was Jack Lugar, a fourth cousin (common great-great-great grandparent) to Richard Lugar.  5%, 5th place.  Nothing says lovin’ like falling flat on your ass for the coattails of your fourth cousin.

NORTH CAROLINA

Marriage definition won easily.  The only reason why the early returns had it close, and the only reason why there was any chance of this thing not winning, was that the amendment also specifically disallows non-marriage civil unions.

One in five Democrat voters, almost 200k in number, chose uncommitted rather than vote Obama.  This is the state that will host DNC in September.  And Obama thinks he can win NC again.  It was a fluke/miracle that he won it in 2008, only by the skin of his teeth and only because the top of the Republican ticket essentially murthaed a month and a half before election day.

Speaking of Charlotte, former Mayor Pat McCrory is the Republican nominee for Governor, as he was four years ago, as he had no credible opposition in GOV-R.  The Democrat nominee is the sitting Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, who won a close race against former Congressman Bob Etheridge, who himself got bounced out of NC-2 by Renee Elmers in the red wave of two years ago.

WEST VIRGINIA

I don’t think Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin or Sen. Joe Manchin will have any trouble in November, in spite of the albatross at the top of the ticket.

WISCONSIN

The partisan primaries in advance of the Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler-signed recall election were yesterday.  Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett easily won the Democrat Primary against someone whom the unions wanted badly, so it’s a Walker-Barrett rematch from 2010, that election will be held next month.  And I expect the results to be just about the same.  Why?  Scott Walker got more votes in his own primary against mere token opposition than the two credible Democrats got combined in theirs.








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