23 Black, 28 White

9 09 2014

Jefferson City

Yes, it’s that bad, but it’s not that bad.

The state’s overall rate is 1.73 per 100k, and the total number is 53.  Though we wish both numbers were zero, there are also many worse things afoot.

But then you get to the racial breakdown.  We read that there were 23 black and 28 white victims.  That translates to the black rate being 3.83 per 100k and the white rate being 0.52 per 100k, which yields a 7.3 times racial disparity.

Bell Curve City comes through as usual.





Guilty Until Proven Guilty

19 08 2014

Jefferson City

Governor?  No, judge, jury and executioner, all in one.

If the scene in Helter Skelter reflects the reality of the Manson trial, then when Manson showed the Los Angeles Times headline of President Nixon (there’s that name again) declaring Manson and his “family” co-defendants to be guilty, Judge Older asked all of the jurors one by one if they thought the knowledge that the President thought the defendants guilty would bias their judgment, and none of them said that it did.

This is why high level politicians should not be running their mouths about matters like these.

I’m sorry I had to subject you to this real snooze fest.  He’s even more boring in person.





That’s How the Undertow Thinks

18 08 2014

Ferguson

Chappelle-Nadal-Photo

This genius said:

And I’m just looking at all of the facts and my experiences and I think as well as some of my constituents think at this point in time the State Highway Patrol, the St. Louis County Police as well as the Ferguson Police Department may be trying to make this situation worse than what it actually is.

I added the link so you can see where her genius constituents live.  Not everyone who lives in the district is black, but it’s a big majority.  And as we all know about the black community, there is an inverse relationship between an idea’s logical soundness or sensibility, common or otherwise, and the odds that the black community will accept it as common currency.

As for those of us in the first world who can reason our way out of paper bags, we know that hardly any cops want to make these kinds of situations more drastic than they are on their own, just like surgeons really want to avoid surgery complications.  If there is any group of people that have a radical fringe faction among them who provoke things to satisfy their hero/messiah complex, it’s firefighters.

I think I’m going to see what I can do about talking to the right people.  She has been so crazy, so wacko, so off-the-wall, so crackpot, that the Senate ought to expel her.  Which they can do.  Incidentally,  she is totally unopposed in her re-election campaign this year.





Why Jay Nixon Is Useless

16 08 2014

Jefferson City

The world has discovered what Missourians have known for five years and change:  Jeremiah Wilson Nixon is probably the most useless Governor in Missouri history.  Don’t forget, part of my job is lobbying state government, and now practically living in Jefferson City during the legislative session, and everyone knows that the Republican leadership in the General Assembly drives the state political agenda; Nixon can only react to it by vetoing the occasional bill, and some of those get overridden.  Even if the Republicans did not so thoroughly control the House and Senate, Nixon does not exactly have a forceful personality.  And something that happened more than 20 years ago explains why he does not.

The national media are starting to pick up on the fact that in his first term as Attorney General, 1992-1996, Nixon lobbied the Federal judiciary to end court-ordered inter-district deseg, for which the NAACP pretty much put out a bounty on his political life.  While he won re-election as AG in 1996, largely because of that, and in my never so humble opinion, every election he has won since then, including his two terms for Governor, has been living off this one act, he is a Democrat.  Blacks are a Democrat base constituency, and they’re even more important to today’s Missouri Democrats than they have been in the past, because of the virtual extinction of the white rural Democrat in the state.  Since Nixon actually wanted a future in politics, not just hanging around in the AG’s office forever, he started backpedaling and pandering and sucking up to blacks and begging for forgiveness at the start of his second term as AG, in 1997.  Note that he challenged but lost to Kit Bond for U.S. Senate in 1998; Nixon had already made up his mind to challenge Bond when he easily won re-election as AG in November 1996.  Nixon had to keep the pandering up, because he knew that he was still in a good position to run for Senate again or for Governor, and the road to 100 Madison Street opened up quite a bit during Matt Blunt’s less than stellar single term as Governor from 2004 to 2008, and then opened up a lot when Blunt decided not to run for re-election.

So here Nixon is, on his second term as Governor, and considering running for President.  Even before this past week, that concept was laughable, and the more he opens his mouth in public in front of the whole world, his chances have gone from extremely slim to none.  But that’s why he’s in full race pandering mode, and has been ever since 1997, because of the deseg blowback.





That’s What His Beloved Black Undertow Does

15 08 2014

Cape Girardeau

Peter Kindercare:  “We do not decide these questions in the streets.”

We don’t?  It looks to me that’s precisely what Ferguson just did.

Remember, that’s the same black undertow you love so much and you’ve pandered to for most of your career in state politics.

The whole country has found out what we’ve know for a long time, that Governor Jay Nixon is useless.  Unfortunately, one heartbeat behind him is even more useless.  Which is why I hope people don’t forget Peter Kindercare’s little personal discretion of a few years ago and he’s not the inevitable Republican nominee for Governor in two years.





2014 Missouri Primaries in Review

6 08 2014

ICYMI, my preview.

AMENDMENT 1

Issue:  The farming rights amendment

Recommendation:  Don’t care

Prediction:  Passes

Results:  It eked out a 2,500 vote or a quarter percent margin statewide

Analysis:  Which represent my own ambivalent nature on this matter, and I wound up not casting a vote on it at all.

It lost by about 2-1 in St. Louis County, about 3-1 in St. Louis City, and it even lost narrowly in St. Charles and Jefferson, and lost significantly in Greene, and while I didn’t look, I’m sure it lost pretty handily in Jackson.  But it ran up big margins in most of the rest of the state, albeit some rural counties its margin of victory was lame, but still it was just enough for the thing to win.  Before St. Louis City and County boxes started rolling in, I don’t remember this thing being ahead by more than 60-40.

I expect HSUS to drag it into court.

AMENDMENT 5

Issue:  The RKBA amendment to the state constitution

Recommendation:  Yes

Results:  61% Yes, 39% No

Analysis:  Before St. Louis City and St. Louis County numbers started rolling in to drag down its margins, it had 69% Yes.

AMENDMENT 7

Issue:  The three-fourth cent transportation sales tax

Recommendation:  No

Results:  No 59%, Yes 41%

Analysis:  This thing did worse in St. Louis City and County (2-1 against in both places) than it did in rural Missouri, and there were only a few counties where it won, and those counties are low population counties.  Other  than Kansas City within Jackson County, where it narrowly won, I’m not seeing one population significant county where it won.  Of course, with St. Louis City and County going 2-1 against it, it was never really going to have much of a chance to win statewide anyway.  Like I said  in the review, I figured the City and County would turn out heavily against it because the CityArchRiver sales tax passed in both places last year.

AMENDMENT 8

Issue:  The state lottery should create a “Veterans Lottery Ticket” with proceeds going to projects and social services relating to military veterans.

Recommendation:  Don’t care

Prediction:  It has “veterans” in it, so it will pass

Results:  No 55%, Yes 45%

Analysis:  I’m at a loss to explain, and amazingly, even as plugged in as I am, I have no inside track on any knowledge of why there would have been so much opposition to this measure.

AMENDMENT 9

Issue:  Adding electronic communications and data to the list of things that are secure from unreasonable searches and seizures in the state Constitution’s Bill of Rights

Recommendation:  Yes

Results:  Wins by about 3-1 statewide

Analysis: It ran up 80% yes margins in rural Missouri but only 62% yes margins in St. Louis City and County.  I’m at a loss to explain why there would be more opposition in St. Louis City and County than everywhere else.  Oh well, like I said in the preview, this will have exceedingly little effect because it can only apply to in-state communication that doesn’t involve an interstate communications network.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE, DEMOCRAT

Race:  Charley Dooley, Incumbent, versus Steve Stenger, County Councilman from South County

Recommendation:  Stenger

Prediction:  Stenger

Results:  Stenger 66%, Dooley 31%

Analysis:

Except I struck out when I said in the preview that I thought it would be fairly close and that North County’s boxes for Dooley would keep it close.  When about 45% of the boxes were in, Stenger had a 61-37 or so lead over Dooley, but none of the North County boxes were in yet, and Dooley was hoping on a big black turnout and near monolithic black margins to get him over the top.  Once North County results came in in a big chunk, Stenger’s lead increased.  It didn’t take but a millisecond later for Dooley to concede.

This is bad news for Rick Stream, the Republican nominee for this office, because his only hope was Dooley winning this primary.

If the recent history of the St. Louis County Executive is any indication, they have a pretty long tenure, but then after 10-15 years, people either get sick of you, you die, or you get appointed to a Federal job you’re not qualified to do.

SENATE-2, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Bob Onder, Vicki Schneider, Chuck Gatschenberger

Recommendation:  Gatschenberger

Prediction:  Onder

Results:  Onder gets 64% in a three-way race

Analysis:  I predicted Onder would eke it out precisely because his never having held public office before would help him.  Well, as you can see, he didn’t just eke it out.  He blew it out, for that reason, and also because he had an excellent ground game.

SENATE-24, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Robb Hicks, Jack Spooner, Jay Ashcroft

Recommendation:  Hicks

Prediction:  Duh, he picked the right father

Results:  Ashcroft 55%, Spooner 36%, Hicks 9%

Analysis:  Hicks didn’t have any media buys.  Spooner was the only one who did media buys in hopes to overcome Ashcroft’s famous last name.

I should note that 55% isn’t that big of a margin for someone who had the natural advantage that “John R. Ashcroft,” as his name appeared on the ballot, did.

 

 





2014 Missouri Primaries Preview

25 07 2014

As lively as the primary season has been and as the upcoming general election season is anticipated to be in a lot of places, that’s how boring it is and will be around here.  The only statewide office on the ballot this year is Auditor, and Tom Danforth has no serious opposition.  There are anticipated to be no party flips in any of the state’s Congressional seats, because the 2011 redistricting process was designed to engineer six reds and two blues, and none of the incumbents are facing serious primary challengers.

All that’s on my radar for August 5 are two state Senate races, five statewide ballot measures and the St. Louis County Executive Democrat primary.

AMENDMENT 1

Issue:  The farming rights amendment

Recommendation:  Don’t care

Prediction:  Passes

Analysis:  This is basically agribusiness versus the animal rights crowd.  I’m not fond of either gang.

AMENDMENT 5

Issue:  The RKBA amendment to the state constitution

Recommendation:  Yes

Prediction:  Passes

Analysis:  It does not matter if this wins or loses, nothing substantial will change legally speaking.  It makes me wonder why all the time was spent in the General Assembly earlier this year bickering over this thing, and yes, I pretty much had a front row seat to this baby being born.

AMENDMENT 7

Issue:  The three-fourth cent transportation sales tax

Recommendation:  No

Prediction:  Fails

Analysis:  This was almost a proposal for a full cent sales tax increase.  Since St. Louis City and St. Louis County got the City-Arch-River sales tax last year, I predict that Amendment 7 loses in St. Louis County and therefore has no chance statewide.  It may seem curious that Kander put this on the August and not the November ballot, thereby making it far more likely that it loses.  However, Kander and Nixon are both elected Democrats, Nixon opposes 7, and I don’t believe his purported reason even though I have no line on his real reason, and Kander is following Nixon’s lead.

If this was a quarter cent instead three-fourths of a cent, I would lean toward voting for it and think that it has a good chance of passing.

AMENDMENT 8

Issue:  The state lottery should create a “Veterans Lottery Ticket” with proceeds going to projects and social services relating to military veterans.

Recommendation:  Don’t care

Prediction:  It has “veterans” in it, so it will pass

Analysis:  Snore

AMENDMENT 9

Issue:  Adding electronic communications and data to the list of things that are secure from unreasonable searches and seizures in the state Constitution’s Bill of Rights

Recommendation:  Yes

Prediction:  Passes

Analysis:  But because so much of these communications and data transfers go across state lines, and therefore become a Federal object, this will have exceedingly little positive effect.  This vote is more of a non-binding referendum on the NSA.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE, DEMOCRAT

Race:  Charley Dooley, Incumbent, versus Steve Stenger, County Councilman from South County

Recommendation:  Stenger

Prediction:  Stenger

Analysis:  I think it will be fairly close.  Dooley will sweep the black vote from North County, of course.  Stenger should vastly clean up in his own County Council district.  And I think West, Northwest and Central St. Louis County will make the difference.  And also, if this was just about blacks versus South County, I think Stenger would still win because someone from South County will be far more likely to turn out on August 5 than a black voter anywhere in St. Louis County.

I live in Ballwin, (just outside Senate-24, see below), and if I had a competitive Republican race on my ballot, I would be taking a Republican ballot.  But I will be taking a Democrat ballot just to vote for Stenger and to vote out Dooley.  I have a somewhat personal reason for wanting Dooley to retire from politics.

SENATE-2, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Bob Onder, Vicki Schneider, Chuck Gatschenberger

Recommendation:  Gatschenberger

Prediction:  Onder

Analysis:  My job had me out at the St. Charles County Fair in Wentzville the previous three evenings, and Wentzville just happens to be within the confines of Senate-2.  I met all three candidates over these past three evenings, had a chance to talk to them enough.  And I am somewhat more impressed with Chuck Gatschenberger than the other two.  Now, this is not a situation where there’s a huge difference between the three of them.  However, since this is one of those red districts where the Republican primary is the election, these relatively minute differences become all the more important.

My spidey sense tells me that Bob Onder will eke this out, because he’s got one thing going for him in a political climate like this:  He has never held public office before.  But this isn’t his first time trying:  If “Bob Onder” is familiar to you, it should be from six years ago.  I endorsed Onder over Blaine Luetkemeyer that season, but the voters saw differently.  And to confirm a thought I had here in the recent past, I have heard credible gossip that Blaine Luetkemeyer is thinking about running for Governor in 2016.

But if there are enough undecided voters who are making up their minds based on the County Fair, Gatschenberger can pull it out.  In which case there will be a good chunk of St. Charles County who will be represented by two different people with hard to spell last names.

SENATE-24, REPUBLICAN

Race:  Robb Hicks, Jack Spooner, Jay Ashcroft

Recommendation:  Hicks

Prediction:  Duh, he picked the right father

Analysis:  I don’t live too far from this district.

I’ve met Jay Ashcroft in passing, and while I wouldn’t consider him Satan incarnate, I don’t think he’d be my favorite person in the whole world either.  He’s just one of many people who think they deserve something just because they’re the son or daughter of someone important.

I don’t know anything about Jack Spooner off hand, and while I haven’t met Robb Hicks personally, I know enough about him from second hand sources to know that he’s the most reliable of the three.

BONUS COVERAGE:  SENATE-10

Not relevant for August 5, because there’s only one Republican and one Democrat on the ballot.  But it’s going to be a weird situation.

First off, the incumbent for that “district,” one Julie Justus, a Democrat, is term limited out.  The catch is that she’s only the “incumbent” for Senate-10 because she won her second and final term in Senate-10 when it was a Kansas City-area district, in the last decade.  In 2011, Senate-10 was redistricted to east central Missouri and this year is the first time that Senate-10 is up after the redistricting.

Second, don’t be surprised if the Democrat wins the new Senate-10 this year, though since it would be replacing another Democrat, it would not result in a party flip.  The Democrat nominee will be current Rep. Ed Schieffer, from Lincoln County, and the Republican nominee will be Rep. Jeanie Riddle, who was Assistant Majority Leader in the House for one term.  She lives in Callaway County, namely the town of Mokane.  The only way anyone knows where in a general sense Mokane is if one is driving to or from Jefferson City along Highway 54, where Highway 63 splits off from/joins with 54 north of Jefferson City across the Missouri River is also where Route 94 ends.  The first town along Route 94 heading back east is Mokane, and it’s just a dot on the map.

While Schieffer is a Democrat, and one of the rare rural Democrats left in the General Assembly, he’s pretty sane and pretty rock solid and grounded.  He gets along well with Ed Kaspar, who owns the two stations in Warrenton, KWRE and KFAV, and also buys a lot of ads on both stations during both political season and sponsors their Christmas music.

Lincoln and Warren Counties are the two big population centers of the district, both are considered St. Louis exurbs, and both are part of the St. Louis MSA according to the Census Bureau.  Callaway County has plenty of people of its own, Holts Summit and New Bloomfield are Jefferson City bedroom communities.  But still, whoever wins Senate-10 will have to go through Warrenton and Troy.  Schieffer’s advantage in November will be his home base of Lincoln County, the most populous county in the district, and probably Warren County, too.  Riddle’s advantage will be that she’s a Republican running in a Republican-friendly climate.

 








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