2008 General Election Preview

27 10 2008

As usual, my recommendations and opinions are my own.  I’m hoping that they’re also the opinions of many other people on November 4.


Recommendation:  None

How I Will Vote:  To give Sarah Palin a future in national politics, and to prevent the eternal historical embarrassment of having a non-white head of state.

Prediction:  McCain, by about 5-10 point margin nationally.  I think he’ll win VA, PA, OH, MI, MO, CO, FL, NV, NH and ME.  NM and IA are still question marks in my mind, but I was hoping too much for MN, WI and OR.  The other states will go as they have gone four and eight years ago.

Analysis:  Again, I will vote to give Sarah Palin a future in national politics, and to prevent the eternal historical embarrassment of having a non-white head of state.  But the disparate impact of my actions will be to make John Sidney McCain III the most powerful man on Earth.  Believe me, after he has spent most of the last decade flipping the bird to us right wingers, that is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow.  I intend on drinking heavily after voting.  In order to cast this vote, I might have to drink heavily before voting.

I am not making a recommendation, because those of you who cannot bring yourself to vote McCain have very good reasons for doing so, which I would agree with and act upon if the Democrat were white.

This Presidential election will be the ultimate test of whether the Bradley Effect still exists.  I think it does, but only real election returns (notwithstanding what will surely be massive and unimaginable black voter fraud) will tell.


Recommendation:  None

How I Will Vote:  Hulshof

Prediction:  Nixon wins, but nowhere near the landslide margin I predicted in August

Analysis:  My heart is warming towards Kenny Hulshof.  The reason?  It’s not that he voted against the “rescue” (nee bailout) in the House the first time, it’s that he voted against it the second time, resisting what had to be massive pressure from his own party and the media to do so.  I don’t really expect much from him as Governor, but I think his commendable behavior on the “rescue” (nee bailout) should be rewarded.  Also, I’m not fond of Nixon associating himself with Barack Obama, after Nixon made opposition to school deseg his keynote issue during his first term as AG.

I am not making a recommendation because all those reasons that I said I could never vote for Hulshof are reasons you might still believe, and those which I would agree with and act upon if this “rescue” (nee bailout) never arose.

Back in August, I said that Nixon would ride to an at least 20 point romp.  But the polls have showed a closer election than that, and I think Hulshof can finish within five points.  The reason is that Kenny has kind of a dorkey charm and personality that appeal to a lot of people.  That and his media buys seem more substantial than Nixon’s.  Still, Nixon has had sixteen years of publicity as AG, and that makes him significantly more well-known than Hulshof.  Nixon will win simply because more people have heard of him.

I don’t think that Nixon’s and Obama’s fate in the state are inexorably intertwined.  I think McCain will win the state and Nixon will win Governor.  Again, because people have heard of Nixon over Hulshof.

Before Kenny Hulshof won MO-9 in 1996, he was a special prosecutor in the Attorney General’s office.  During his last few years on the job, his boss was Jay Nixon.


Recommendation:  None

How I Will Vote:  James Rensing (Constitution Party)

Prediction:  Page

Analysis:  Peter Kinder’s pandering to blacks to an insane and incorrigible level has frustrated me so much that I don’t care if he’s good on one or two other issues.

Don’t forget, Kinder won Lt. Gov. four years ago by the skin of his teeth.  If he can’t get the votes of people like me, I doubt he can win.  I think a Nixon win might have just long enough coattails to affect this race.  But I don’t think it’s going to go any further downballot.


Recommendation:  Gibbons

How I Will Vote:  Duh

Prediction:  Gibbons

Michael Gibbons should be rewarded for his efforts to get conceal-carry enacted into law in Missouri in 2003.  Gibbons, then (and is now the outgoing) Senate Majority Leader, had the Senate take the issue up, in spite of the fact that his Senate district voted heavily against Proposition B in 1999.  The opposition was even heavier in Gibbons’s own home town of Jerkwood, er, I mean Kirkwood.  (Freudian slip.)

The Gibbons & Gibbons law firm is one of the most prominent in Kirkwood, though you would never know it by driving by the firm’s office on Clay Avenue.

Chris Koster is his Democrat opposition.  If the name sounds familiar, then you’re not imagining things — Chris Koster is the son of the late Rich Koster, who was the GM at KSDK for a number of years, who got the Rush Limbaugh TV show on Channel 5 and put it at a good time slot, and was the conservative counterpoint to Ray Hartmann on Donnybrook since its beginning in 1987 until his passing a number of years ago.  Chris Koster was born and raised in St. Louis, but somehow he ended up in the Kansas City area, and among other things, he was the Cass County Circuit Attorney before he won the Senate seat in the district where he lives.  Up until 2007, he was a Republican, but switched parties last year out of pure expediency.  Somehow, he eked out a Democrat Primary win over a real Democrat, Margaret Donnelly, this past August, and this has the state’s libdems upset.

The fact that Koster has almost no liberal support, that he is embroiled in ethics scandals aplenty, and perhaps also that people have it in their minds that Nixon will win Governor and that the AG should be of the other party, and that the state NRA seems to be pushing Gibbons even more enthusiastically than Hulshof, are reasons that I think Gibbons will win.


Recommendation:  Lager

How I Will Vote:  Lager

Prediction:  Depends on people’s tastes for beer :)

Analysis:  Really, couldn’t some Democrat named Ale have run?  :)

The Treasurer’s race pits 33-year old Senator Brad Lager (R-Maryville) against Clint Zweifel, a 34-year old Rep from Florissant.  Lager would do what the Constitution states that the Treasurer should do, while Zweifel somehow thinks that the framers of the 1945 Constitution did write “college affordability” and “help struggling homeowners” into Article IV Section 15, but wrote it in disappearing ink.

That said, the choice for me will be easy.

Whoever wins will be young enough to have a potential of a bright political future.


Recommendation:  Anybody but Mrs. Antolinez

How I Will Vote:  Denise Neely (Constitution Party)

Prediction:  Mrs. Antolinez, easily

Analysis:  Other than that Jo Mannies blurb last year, which the P-D has now taken down, you would never know that the former Robin Carnahan got married, save the photo above which I happened to luck into.  That she did get married, but is still using her maiden name as her professional name in order to keep the advantage that it has in this state, and that Juan Antolinez seems nowhere to be found, are the verbally ironic reasons why I call her Mrs. Antolinez.  There is a theory that the marriage is all a cover-up for the fact that she really bats for the home team, if you know what I mean.  That theory makes sense, considering all of this.


Recommendation:  No

How I Will Vote:  No

Prediction:  Wins

Analysis:  I made the mistake at first of analyzing this thing as an education proposition.  Then again, that’s a mistake that most people will make, as the TV ads sell this thing almost entirely in terms of funding education.

They tell you that A would do away with “outdated” and “archaic” riverboat casino regulations, and raise a big pot of money every year, which would be used entirely for Missouri’s schools.  You’ll get the impression that they’ll repeal some 1850s-era casino codes, raise hundreds of millions of bucks per year, and that would be new state education spending.

What they’re not telling you is that the “outdated” and “archaic” regulation they want to repeal is the $500-per-two-hour loss limit for those that gamble.  You know, that was adopted way back in 1994, those ancient days before agriculture, fire, the wheel and written language.

What they’re not telling you is that any casino taxes realized by the state are supposed to go to education anyway.  The reason is that all casino taxes that go to the state have to go to education, no matter the amount.  They didn’t have to stipulate that the new revenue realized by people losing more than $500 a night would only go to education, for if the state gets only $1 in casino taxes or $1 billion, all that money has to go to education.  But I think this stipulation has an ulterior motive.  (See below.)

What they’re not telling you is that, even if they are telling the truth that all revenue realized by lottery and riverboat casino operations are spent on education, that the Missouri Constitution only requires that at least 25% of state revenue goes to education.  What this means is that for every dollar the state takes in from casino taxes, they do spend it on education, but then they go and back out 75 cents of education funding that comes from general revenue.  This happened when the lottery started in 1986, when riverboat gambling started in 1994, and it will happen now.  If $100 million per year comes into the state if A wins, this means that the schools will receive $75 million a year less from the state from sources like income and sales taxes.

All of the things I have said, as a matter of fact or opinion, are true.  But now I realize they’re misguided.

For what Pro-A forces are not really emphasizing is that A would limit the number of new casinos in the state.  Now, who would benefit from that?  Right, the owners of existing casinos.  If people lose more than $500 a night, who benefits from that, especially since they won’t have any new casino options thanks to Prop A?   Right, the owners of existing casinos.

It’s now perfectly clear to me that the casino owners wrote this bill, and used its influence to get this on the ballot.  They’re making a big to-do about how this would all go to the schools (which it would have to anyway, see above).  The reason is that it would get the powerful teachers’ unions on board, so they can use their influence and money to push the issue, in order to make it appear that it’s a matter of education, to keep the casinos’ fingerprints off the gun.  If the casinos paid for the Pro-A media buys, then people would pick up on the hustle of it all.  But having the NEA/AFT do it means that most people won’t realize that it’s a sham.

Also, A would increase the state income tax on riverboat casinos from 20% to 21%.  Big whoop.

If Proposition A merely repealed the loss limit, I might vote for it.  But other than all these issues I raised above, I just don’t like the notion that we need high-stakes gamblers to fund schools.  What kind of message does that send?

Missourians are squirrely about gambling propositions.  Of the four that have made statwide ballot since 1993, two have won, and two have lost.  Just on that basis, I couldn’t make a prediction.  But since there is very little organized opposition, I think it will win.


Recommendation:  None

How I Will Vote:  Leaning Yes

Prediction:  No clue

Analysis:  According to Ballotpedia:

The Statutory Amendment to the Revised Statues of Missouri Relating to Home Care (2008-025) is an initiated state statute proposing to amend Missouri law to establish the Missouri Quality Homecare Council. The Quality Homecare Council would ensure the availability of home care services to the elderly under the Medicaid program by recruiting, training, and stabilizing the home care workforce. The annual cost of the program has been estimated at $510,560.

What B seems to do is to create a situation where Medicaid is more likely to pay for home care services for the elderly rather than nursing home habitation.  After the Nixon/Medicaid/Nursing Home scandal hit earlier this year, I think it’s a good thing that less expensive home care rather than very expensive nursing home care will now become an option.  Since that scandal involved only nursing homes, I doubt that Social Services will want to intercede between spouses to be reimbursed for home care.

The only reason I might vote against it is that the incorrigibly pro-black and Hispanic SEIU is for it.


Recommendation:  No

How I Will Vote:  No

Prediction:  No clue

Analysis:  Would require that eventually, 15% of the state’s energy use comes from unproven and unreliable “renewable sources.”  What it means is that your electric bills are going to go way up.  As you can surmise, the wind turbine industry is for this, and probably financing the Pro-C campaign.

Whenever I see one of those dorkey windmills on TV, I have the same reaction as I do when I see a Toyota Prius Hybrid.  What I see is pompous, sanctimonious, holier-than-thou liberal taking his dong out of his pants and waving it at me.  (Figuratively.)  There are cars other than the Prius that are hybrids and/or fuel efficient, but the Prius has a design that just screams sanctimony.  There are alternative forms of energy production that will soon be far more cost effective and value-conscious than the windmills, but the libs have almost adopted the visage of one as their official symbol.

Meanwhile, these same libs will whine and bitch when someone proposes to generate electricity in the manner that has the lowest carbon footprint of any proven technology, and that is nuclear fission.


Recommendation:  No

How I Would Vote:  Guess

Prediction:  No clue

Analysis:  M is St. Louis County-only.  It would be an extra half-cent sales tax to fund public transit.  In other words, you, St. Louis Countian, are expected to pay for Metro’s blatant and gross incompetence in the last several years.  Curiously, this isn’t on the ballot in St. Louis City, yet public transit is more important there than in the County.  Perhaps the reason is that city sales taxes are already 8.25%.

UPDATE 10/28:  While M is only on the ballot in the County, its results will affect the city.  If M loses, then a quarter-cent transit sales tax approved by city voters in 1997 is automatically rescinded.  If M wins, it stays.

Also, I keep seeing these Pro-M media buys showing Metro Link trains zipping about, taking white people to ballgames downtown.  I think we all know by now that that isn’t the whole racial truth.


Recommendation:  Yes^10

How I Will Vote:  The word is somewhere in the dictionary between “Yell” and “Yet.”

Prediction:  Wins

Analysis:  Would make English the official language of state business.  I would be even more enthusiastic if German were made an official alternative.


Recommendation:  None

How I Will Vote:  No

Prediction:  No clue

Analysis:  This has something to do with how stormwater control projects are financed.  Really, can’t these kinds of things be handled by the professionals we hire to mull it over?

My rule of thumb about propositions and amendments is this:  If you’re unsure about what it does, vote no.  It can’t hurt you if it fails.


Recommendation:  No

How I Would Vote:  No

Prediction:  ?

Analysis:  If it passes, then it gives Illinois permission to remove what few civil liberties remain, and formally adopt Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto as the fundamental law of the land commune.  About the only way around this, if it passes, would be if the Con-Con gives Cook and DuPage Counties to Venezuela, thereby leaving what remains of Illinois to the governance of normal people once again.


Recommendation:  Skip it.

How I Will Vote:  Since she has no opponent, skip it.

Analysis:  After this, I can’t punch a ballot for Joyce ever again, even if it means installing a radical black like Jerryl Christmas.  Since this is the General, and not a primary, defeating her would be an impossible proposition, even if she had token opposition.  The next chance to end her political career would be in August 2012, in the Democrat Primary.

As for Joyce’s partner in “crime,” Bob McCulloch is not up until 2010.  By then, he’ll have been Circuit Attorney in St. Louis County for 20 years.  I have heard buzz that he might try to move on to bigger and better things, either in elected office or by making rain.  But if he runs again, I would vote for someone else if I had the chance.


Recommendation:  Akin

How I Would Vote:  Akin

Prediction:  Akin

Analysis:  Versus the perennial nutcase, Bill Haas?  Spare me.


Recommendation:  Anyone but the brother-in-law of one Juan Antolinez

How I Will Vote:  Cynthia Redburn (Constitution Party)

Prediction:  The brother-in-law of one Juan Antolinez will win

Analysis:  Remember, the brother-in-law of one Juan Antolinez was the only member of the local Congressional delegation to vote for the bailout.


Recommendation:  Blaine Leuktemeyer

How I Would Vote:  Ibid.

Prediction:  None

Analysis:  Liberal Judy Baker vs somewhat conservative.  Otherwise, don’t ask.


MO-6:  The only other competitive House race in MO pits Republican incumbent Sam Graves against former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.  The district includes northwestern and north central MO, and some northern KCMO suburbs.  Graves is rural, and Barnes is city.  Ironically, most of Kansas City, Missouri in terms of population is in MO-5, so she won’t have any political benefit from her time as Mayor.  For those two reasons, I think Graves will win.  Sam Graves’s brother, Todd, was U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Missouri until recently.  President Bush fired him, and for good reason, IMHO.

CO-6:  To replace Tom Tancredo.  It’s Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R) vs a token Dem whose last elected office was in Appleton, Wisconsin, in the reddest district in the state.  Coffman may not be Tancredo, but since MALDEF isn’t happy with his tenure as Secretary of State, and his efforts to prevent illegal aliens from voting, he seems to be the best possible Tancredo replacement that the state’s body politic can produce.

PA-11:  Central Eastern Pennsylvania.  Lou Barletta.  Immigration.  Need I say more?  When Barletta first tried to unseat Paul Kanjorski, he didn’t succeed.  Now, Lou has a record and a keynote issue.  And a very good chance to succeed this time.

PA-12:  Gerrymandered, much of rural southwestern PA, and some Pittsburgh suburbs.  Jack Murtha’s district.  You know, our troops are Nazis, my voters are racists.  Bill Russell has a good chance to send this embarrassment to the unemployment line.  Though with 35 years tenure in the House, Murtha’s pension will probably be quite generous.

NY-18:  Upstate NYC suburbs, including Chappaqua, Disgraceland, where Bill and Hillary Clinton bought into in late 1999 or early 2000, to give HRC New York State residency to run for the Senate seat what was soon to be vacated by Daniel Patrick Moynihan.  The district has been represented by the rancid Nita Lowey (D) for a long time.  Jim Russell, a computer consultant, won both Republican and Conservative Party nominations.  He is challenging Lowey on the immigration issue.  If Russell wins, then Bill and Hillary will have a conservative Republican for a Congressman — just seeing their faces if that happens would be well worth the price of admission.

CA-52:  This San Diego County district is being vacated by my preferred Presidential candidate during the Primaries, Duncan Hunter.  His likely successor his is son of the same name.

FL-16:  Mark Foley’s old district.  Foley’s Democrat successor is also embroiled in Foley-like scandals.  Likely an R pickup.

IL-14:  Denny Hastert’s old district went to Democrat Bill Foster, as he defeated Jim Obwerweis in a special election earlier this year.  Oberweis is trying again vs Foster.  This is probably Oberweis’s last legitimate chance for public office.  If he loses, then any future runs will be interpreted as the usual mehe of a perennial candidate.

LA-2:  William “Cold Cash” Jefferson’s district.  Look for him to win easily, as New Orleans is in the district.  The more crimes you commit, the more likely it is that you’ll get black votes.

MN-6:  Michelle Bachman.  One of the few people that really care, and probably the only person in Minnesota public life that cares.

MS-1:  Roger Wicker’s old district, won by Democrat Travis Childers in a special election over Republican Greg Davis earlier this year.  There will be a rematch.

TX-14:  Ron Paul.

VA-5:  Virgil Goode’s district.  This is the only Republican that I thought could have had a chance of beating Mark Warner for the Senate.  Vote Goode, to keep that possibility alive.

PREDICTION:  Republicans gain seats, but not enough to take over the House.


Missouri has none.  Bond is up in 2010, and the buzz is that he’s going to retire.  Claire McCaskill is up in 2012.

IL:  Durbin will win easily.  Vote third party.

VA:  I don’t think much of either Mark Warner or Jim “Happy” Gilmore.  Vote third party.  Jack Warner (R) is retiring, and a likely Mark Warner (no relation) win will be a D pickup.

SC:  I would definitely vote Bob Conley over Gooberface.  If Conley can pull this off, I highly doubt that he would remain a Democrat once he actually gets sworn in to the U.S. Senate.

CO:  The media say that Democrat Mark Udall has this thing in the bag, but Bob Schaffer, a former Congressman himself, hasn’t run that far behind in the polls.  Schaffer was a big part of the Republican Study Committee, which tried to get the House Republicans to advocate for conservatism.  This seat is being vacated by Wayne Allard (R), so a Udall win would be a D pickup.

NE:  Chuck Bagel (RINO) is retiring.  The race is Bush’s former Ag Secretary, Mike Johanns, vs Scott Kleeb.  I don’t know how I would vote here, because Johanns was Bush’s Ag Sec, and that immigration and agriculture always seem to intertwine these days.  We know President Bush’s position.  Is Johanns for open borders?

NM:  “Pistol” Pete Domenici is retiring, and Rep. Tom Udall (D) is the likely replacement.  If his cousin Mark can win in CO, then it might be the first time in the history of the Senate that first cousins have served at the same time.

AR:  Pryor is essentially unopposed.

DE:  Joe Biden is running for VP and re-election to the Senate at the same time.  If Obama wins, then either Delaware’s current Democrat governor, or its new governor being elected in November, likely also a Democrat, would appoint the replacement.  Vote O’Donnell (R) for that reason alone.

IA:  Dung Heap has some opposition, but I don’t think he has to worry.

LA:  Louisiana recently changed from its French-style “free-for-all-and-runoff” system to a regular primary/general system for electing Federal politicians, it kept for state level offices.  Mary Landrieu will probably win easily; her opposition to amnesty for illegal aliens last year solidified that.  Her Republican opponent flipped parties last year, that being State Treasurer John Kennedy.  That said, don’t discount him just yet — remember the last time someone named John Kennedy ran for U.S. Senate as an underdog against an established incumbent in a year when his party was not expected to win much of anything?

MA:  This time, John Kerry has a token Republican opponent, unlike four years ago.

MI:  Carl Levin’s Republican opponent is State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, from the heavily-Dutch (Nederlander) western part of the state.  Levin will win, but vote for Hoogendyk because he has a cool name, in addition to everything else.

MT:  Max Baucus’s Republican opponent is more left-wing than Baucus.  Therefore, I would vote Baucus.

NJ:  Somehow, Frank Lautenberg seems to be ticking on and on.

RI:  A Republican is safe in Rhode Island in 2008?  Yes, sometimes even hens can have teeth.

SD:  I can’t understand how South Dakota can keep one of those liberal members of the Senate in the Senate.  It seems like they will do just that this year, in the person of Tim Johnson.

AL:  Jeff Sessions vs a black woman in Alabama.  Duh, I wonder how this one’s gonna turn out.

AK:  Corruptocrat Ted Stevens (R) will probably see his political career ended by Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D).  At that point, Ted can take a long walk off a long bridge to nowhere.

GA:  Amnestyaire and bailoutaire Saxby Chambliss is up this year.  I’m also not fond of the Democrat running against him, for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is.  Vote third party.

KS:  Pat Roberts easily.  Has he been endorsed by Pat Robertson?

KY:  The problematic Mitch McConnell needs to lose.

MN:  Norm Coleman essentially beat the whole world to win U.S. Senate in 2002.  All he has to do now is to beat some washed-out not-funny-anymore comedian.  I think at least one-fifth of Minnesotans who are saying they’re voting Franken will start to have buyer’s regrets once they reach the voting booth.  Coleman wins.

MS:  Both of the state’s Senate seats are up.  Thad Cochran will easily win re-election, and Trent Lott’s appointed replacement, Roger Wicker, faces former one-term Governor Ronnie Musgrove, the anti-South bigot.  Analysts keep saying that Wicker-Musgrove is going to be close.  I can’t understand how someone who got bounced out of the Governor’s office in 2003 has a chance.  Both Cochran and Wicker win.

Up until Trent Lott resigned, the state of Mississippi only had four people that held their state’s U.S. Senate Seats from 1947 to 2007, i.e. 60 years.  Those are John Stennis, James Eastland, Thad Cochran and Trent Lott.  The theory is that, if Wicker wins, he’ll be in the U.S. Senate for a very long time.

NH:  Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is challenging John Sununu again, like she did four years ago.  If she wins this time, then this proves that enough Taxachusettsans have moved into NH so that the Republicans can write off the state forever.

NC:  Elizabeth Dole and her Democrat opponent, State Sen. Kay Hagan, have been close in the polls.  But those same NC “polls” have Obama up over McCain.  In North Carolina, yeah right.  Dole wins, she voted against the “rescue” (nee bailout).

OR:  Moderate Republican Gordon Smith has a tough re-election campaign.  If Smith loses, then too many Californians have moved into Oregon so that the Republican Party can write it off forever.

TN:  Lamar Alexander doesn’t seem to have any serious opposition.  The amnestyaire that he is, I wish he would.

TX:  See above, cross out “Lamar Alexander” and insert “John Cornyn.”

WY:  Both of the state’s U.S. Senators are up, both Mike Enzi based on years, and John Barrasso as a special election.  Barrasso was appointed to take the place of the late Craig Thomas last year.  Both Republicans, and both expected to win.

PREDICTION:  Democrats gain seats, but not enough to get to 60.


NC:  Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) vs Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue (D).  McCrory’s good on immigration, which is becoming an ever-more important issue in the state.  (“Welcome to North Carolina, Mexico’s Newest Colony.”)  Polls show it could go either way.  Vote Pat.  Whoever wins will replace Democrat Mike Easley.

WA:  Rossi-Gregoire II.  And, like in 2004, it’s probably going to be a razor-thin victory for either one of them.  Even if you do vote Rossi, your vote might be canceled by that mysterious box full of several hundred Gregoire votes that were somehow “found” and that a judge ruled to allow.

IN:  Mitch Daniels (R) is vulnerable.  Amnesty and the Indiana Toll Road are the issues.  In case you’re wondering, the latter is essentially like Portgate, but involving an interstate highway.

VT:  I think VT is now the last state that does gubernatorial elections every two years.  Jim Douglas succeeded Howard Dean in 2002, and won again in 2004 and 2006.  Somehow, a Republican keeps on winning in this heavily Democrat state.  Competing with him, among others, is Cris Ericson of the Marijuana Party.  Though she might not be campaigning as hard as she should, as Season 3 of “Weeds” just came out on DVD.


Under the Missouri Plan Nine from Outer Space, Supreme Court, Appellate-Level Judges are appointed by the Governor, takes the bench upon the appointment, and are up every four years for a simple yes/no retention public vote.  Trial-level judges from St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County are also under the Missouri Plan Nine from Outer Space, but trial-level judges from every other country run and sit partisanly.  Since the inception of the Missouri Plan Nine from Outer Space, there have been exceedingly few voter-level rejections of judges.  Your vote and my analysis will be made under the very likely true assumption that all of them will be retained.

Supreme Court:  Pat Breckenridge is the only one of the seven up for retention.  She’s a Blunt appointee, but conservative groups weren’t too thrilled about her.  But, if she’s rejected, Jay Nixon will likely appoint her replacement, so it’s for that reason alone that I will vote to keep her.

Appellate Level, Eastern MO:  For sure, keep Dowd and Odenwald.  I don’t know enough about Richter.

22nd (St. Louis City) Circuit Trial Level:  Ohmer, Dowd, and Wilson — keep those three.  The rest, I don’t know enough about.

21st (St. Louis County):  Don’t know enough about any of the state-level judges in the County.

St. Charles County:  Judges run and sit partisanly.  The only Democrat I could vote for is Ted House.


1st:  Jim Lembke (R) vs Joan Barry (D).  Vote Jim.

15th:  To replace Michael Gibbons.  Eric Schmitt (R) vs Steve Trout (D).  Schmitt.

7th:  Jane “Deseg” Cunningham (R) vs Kevin Leeseburg (D).  Pass this one up.

5th:  Robin Wright-Jones (D) vs Robert Christophel (Lib.)  Vote Christophel.

Overall, it does not appear likely that the Republicans will lose the Senate.


The only House race that interests me is the 86th, in west St. Louis County.  Gene McNary’s son Cole is the Republican nominee.  Everything else should be the usual mehe.  It doesn’t appear likely that the Republicans will lose the House.




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