The Number to Watch

28 02 2012

First off, I had minor surgery yesterday that didn’t turn out to be so minor.  I’m really too weak to be doing any serious blogging, but I wanted to pound the laptop at least for this thing.

Here’s the number to watch in Michigan tonight:  9.24.  That is Romney’s percentage margin of victory over McCain in MI in 2008.  Even if Santorum doesn’t out and outright win MI tonight, if he finishes within 9.24%, it’s a moral victory for Santorum.  Too, Michigan’s delegates are distributed proportionally, so it wouldn’t be just a moral victory.  Why is this important?  Two words:  George Romney.

Romney will win Arizona, mainly because of the strength of its organized Mormon community.  McCain didn’t even win his own state’s primary with a majority in 2008, and his margin of victory over Romney was under 13%.  But for McCain, Romney would have won it easily in 2008.  That, and probably also Gov. Brewer’s endorsement and Kris Kobach being on the Romney team, will be why Romney wins AZ easily tonight.

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One response

28 02 2012
lowly

Get well, eh!




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