Okay, will Obama admit that he has a problem?
Four in ten West Virginia Democrats (closed primary — hint — no Republican chaos here) chose an incarcerated Federal felon who is doing time in Texas rather than the incumbent Democrat President. Yes, I know WV is a state Obama didn’t win in 2008 and won’t in 2012. But this ought not happen to an incumbent President much less a credible candidate for President in any state.
According to someone I follow on Twitter, the felon actually beat Obama in at least one county. (UPDATE: He won eight counties)
The media drag out the “protest vote” canard whenever a hard- to far-right winger does well in an election, and it’s nonsense because in most cases, the right winger is one of many candidates on the ballot. In this case, this definitely was a protest vote — I hardly think the 40% who voted for the felon voted for him because they wanted him to be President.
What jumps out at me? The margin. 21 points.
The final credible polling last week had Mourdock up by 10. Yet he won by 21. What explains the discrepancy?
Three theories: 1. Tea Party support within Republican plebiscites runs under the radar, 2. The pollsters were massaging the polling results in favor of Lugar, 3. Mourdock had momentum — Over time, he went from way behind, to a little behind, to tied, to slightly ahead, to noticeably ahead. Once he got noticeably ahead, he reached a critical mass of credibility that busted the dam and drove even more people in his column.
It’s probably a combination of all three.
Joe Donnelly is abandoning IN-2 to run for Senate, and his own Democrat Primary was a one-man event. I guess he read the tea leaves, because he’s leaving the Democrat reservation on Operation Gunrunner.
Watch for a change in Orrin Hatch, too. Of course, he started to split away from the RINO herd when the RINO hunters picked off Bob Bennett. That’s the thing about politicians — They pay attention to election results for other politicians. Don’t you think the CEO of Coca-Cola reads Pepsi’s financial statements?
Lugar can’t run third party, because Indiana law apparently prevents primary losers from running as an independent out of spite.
Luke Messer, the party favorite, won IN-6-R to replace Mike Pence (who was unopposed in GOV-R yesterday). My favorite, Travis Hankins, finished 11 points back in 2nd place, but he did get more than twice the votes of the third place finisher, one Don Bates, who ran ads calling Hankins an “extremist.” I’m happy with that at least.
Dan Burton is retiring from IN-5, and one of the candidates in the Republican field was Jack Lugar, a fourth cousin (common great-great-great grandparent) to Richard Lugar. 5%, 5th place. Nothing says lovin’ like falling flat on your ass for the coattails of your fourth cousin.
Marriage definition won easily. The only reason why the early returns had it close, and the only reason why there was any chance of this thing not winning, was that the amendment also specifically disallows non-marriage civil unions.
One in five Democrat voters, almost 200k in number, chose uncommitted rather than vote Obama. This is the state that will host DNC in September. And Obama thinks he can win NC again. It was a fluke/miracle that he won it in 2008, only by the skin of his teeth and only because the top of the Republican ticket essentially murthaed a month and a half before election day.
Speaking of Charlotte, former Mayor Pat McCrory is the Republican nominee for Governor, as he was four years ago, as he had no credible opposition in GOV-R. The Democrat nominee is the sitting Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, who won a close race against former Congressman Bob Etheridge, who himself got bounced out of NC-2 by Renee Elmers in the red wave of two years ago.
I don’t think Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin or Sen. Joe Manchin will have any trouble in November, in spite of the albatross at the top of the ticket.
The partisan primaries in advance of the Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler-signed recall election were yesterday. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett easily won the Democrat Primary against someone whom the unions wanted badly, so it’s a Walker-Barrett rematch from 2010, that election will be held next month. And I expect the results to be just about the same. Why? Scott Walker got more votes in his own primary against mere token opposition than the two credible Democrats got combined in theirs.