How Ya Like Me Now?

13 08 2012

Missouri

Channel 5/Survey USA:  Akin already has 51%.  You wanted him, Claire, and now you’ve got him, and you got only 40%.

Strangely, though, it only shows Romney with a 45-44 lead over Obama.  Both Romney and Akin will win, by about the same margin.

Predictably, Nixon’s a cinch for a second term, with a 53%-39% lead over what’s-his-face that says he’s for jobs.  About a fifth of Romney voters said they’ll vote Nixon, and unless what’s-his-face comes up with something special, it will probably stay that way.

That said, I have to repeat again that there was never a poll that showed Todd Akin winning the primary, and all but one showed him in third.  However, I don’t think the general election will be like the Republican primary, where polling and support for candidates turned out to be volatile, initial support for Steelman and Brunner was built on quicksand, and therefore people might vote differently compared to what they tell pollsters.  Like I said in this space a few days ago, I think half of Akin’s voters in the primary were very late converts from another candidate or very late breaks from the undecided column, perhaps as late as the voting booth.  In contrast, I think virtually all of the 51% in support of Akin will vote for him and virtually all of the 40% for McCaskill votes for her.  Assume 1% for the third party dorks, and the remaining 8% are split, and that that’s a 55% to 44% win for Akin.  I think that might be a little high, because I think both Akin and Romney win by a 6-8 point margin.

 


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