Two Tickets

6 03 2016

USA

I think yesterday showed that it’s down to Trump and Big Ricky, especially since the latter was able to win a New England state that had a way bigger turnout than four and eight years ago, and even Trump’s two wins yesterday were ones where he had relatively narrow margins over Big Ricky.  He’s even starting to catch up in the delegate count, 380-297 as I write this.  There will be states where either Little Ricky or the Mailman’s Son will be the perceived second place horses, and the Not Trump Caucus will latch onto them.  But for the most part, in most states, and nationally, the NTC will cynically latch onto Big Ricky, even though they no more want Big Ricky actually to win the nomination than they want Trump.

There is a fatal flaw in the NTC weaponizing Big Ricky that the NTC hasn’t thought through.

Most people who are voting for Ted Cruz are voting for Ted Cruz, not against Donald Trump.  They’re lamestream conservative true believers who are siding with the most strident lamestream conservative true believer in American politics right now.  And lamestream conservative true believers no more like the Republican Party establishment, and vice versa, than Trump-supporting populists and nationalists do, albeit for different reasons.  Whatever can be said for the typical Cruz voter, can be said in spades for the kind of person that will be a Cruz delegate at the RNC in Cleveland in July.  So, the NTC votes Cruz in order to give him more delegates just to keep Trump south of 1237.  Do they think that, after the first ballot, when everyone has to cast their vote as legally required, that when the second ballot hits and everyone is a free agent, that Cruz delegates are going to side with whoever the establishment sock puppet is going to be, (bet on them trying to resurrect Jeb!), just to spite Trump?  I could easily see half of Cruz’s delegates either willingly or easily being talked into voting Trump on the second ballot.


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56 responses

6 03 2016
David In TN

Steve Sailer has said he can see Trump losing in a Goldwater-McGovern landslide or winning by changing the pattern. He doesn’t think Ted Cruz can get 270 electoral votes against Hillary.

6 03 2016
JRM

Makes it interesting to think what might have happened (I think it’s too late now) if there had been a friendlier relationship between Trump and Cruz. Early on, I thought Cruz was going to abstain from direct attacks on Trump; but those days ended some time ago.

I also agree that Cruz supporters are a different breed from Trump supporters. Cruz’s evangelicals do not like nor trust Trump. Trump supporters are several more shades of radical, disgusted and angry than Cruz supporters.

Is it possible that Trump could ally with Cruz at the convention, and thereby obviate the non-Trump establishment challenge? Both men’s temperaments would seem to make that path difficult. But they are going to have the vast majority of legitimately cast votes between them to work with. I don’t think we can count on Cruz’s released delegates to go Trump. But a formal alliance could swing it. Would Trump be willing to give Cruz V.P.?

6 03 2016
countenance

Remember Cruz soft pedaled around Trump hoping Trump would implode, so he could pick up the pieces. What blew that apart was when Cruz started surging in Iowa, and Trump started lobbing stink bombs at him.

My take is that if the delegate math going into Cleveland is ((Trump) + (Cruz/3)) > 1237, Trump will be fine.

6 03 2016
Alex the Goon

How often does the #2 go on the ticket as VP? They always seem to pick someone from left field (Ryan, Palin, Cheney, Kemp, Quayle). I think Bush41 was the last VP picked, who was a contender in the primaries. It may be generally wise to -not- pick a rival for a teammate, because a month ago they were fighting and shit-talking each other, and now you have a bitter #2 who thinks he should be #1.
It got Reagan shot. Though that probably was less being a bitter #2, and more Bush’s CIA history, and thinking coups & assassinations are just normal politics.

6 03 2016
countenance

Also remember that LBJ is in every other alternate theory about JFK’s assassination. In 1960, LBJ himself was a very strong contender for the Democrat nomination.

It is why nominees avoid ambitious running mates.

6 03 2016
JRM

Agree on all that…my speculation was that it would be a deal that would vault over the minimum delegate count, that the establishment would be forced to cave if all those popular votes were united, and Trump thereby gets ushered into the gates.

Now, I know there a thousand reasons not to pick a rival as running mate. But this scenario would be a rare and very strategic way of avoiding messier brokering.

The one-third of released Cruz delegates Blogmeister conjures gets the job done more neatly. If the establishment will have it….

6 03 2016
6 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Not a big Morning Joe fan but that was deliciously on point. Except that Foam Boy’s ego will keep him in for the humiliation in Florida.

6 03 2016
Hard Right

I loved Begala’s quote:

As Paul Begala said of Rubio, “Everybody likes him but the voters.”

6 03 2016
Hard Right

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/271945-rubio-downplays-poor-super-saturday-showings

Speaking primarily in Spanish at a press conference in Puerto Rico, where voters will head to the polls on Sunday, the Florida senator noted that the contests in Kansas, Maine, Kentucky and Louisiana are proportional, saying he’ll leave them with more delegates than he started with.

6 03 2016
6 03 2016
countenance

If Trump wasn’t going to win Maine, everyone would have said that it would have been Rubio. Yet, it’s Cruz that winds up doing it, Rubio gets 8%, fourth place, behind the Mailman’s Son. There’s no spinning that, even with an Iranian uranium enrichment centrifuge.

6 03 2016
Hard Right

I hope Kucksick beats him in Michigan. Lotta delegates there. Trump was at 51 percent in one poll at the end of January.

6 03 2016
Marc Bahn

To borrow from JPod, we’re seeing Peak Cruz. He’ll gradually begin to fade rather than crash and burn like his cousin.

6 03 2016
JRM

The big problem I see for Cruz is that, if he is “surging” a bit, as the later voters in LA seemed to suggest, the very Southern states he might be expected to win have *already voted*. His mini-surge is too little too late (I hope).

7 03 2016
Hard Right

6 03 2016
countenance

I’ve said that Trump is going to cause polysci texts to be rewritten. He’s already causing one to be torn asunder.

http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21693910-2016-campaign-putting-most-influential-political-science-book-recent-memory?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/pushback

6 03 2016
countenance

Not just “like” Hitler, but actually IS Hitler.

Of course, that a “mainstream” news show has this kook on should illicit at least a few suspicions.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/06/glenn-beck-warns-that-trump-is-adolf-hitler-video/

6 03 2016
6 03 2016
countenance

Bern wins Maine, easily. He’s had a good weekend.

6 03 2016
6 03 2016
Alex the Goon

Love the ambulance chaser ad on the Philly mag. Enhances their credibility by, like, a few percent at least.

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
6 03 2016
Hard Right

I see the Pool Boy won in Porto Rico with 71 percent. He gets all 23 delegates.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Kirkpatrick criticizes Trump campaign

http://www.vdare.com/articles/trump-offers-conservatism-inc-a-way-out-they-wont-take-it

At the same time, his infuriating lack of message discipline, refusal to invest in campaign infrastructure, and seeming indifference to debate preparations is leading the campaign to careen from one disaster to another, from last Thursday’s dumpster fire of a debate to Saturday’s loss of the Maine caucuses. Indeed, were it not for early voting, his campaign would be regarded as being in a tailspin.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Yeah, he’s a lying sleazebag like Cruz, but he’s right….

7 03 2016
countenance

He might be, but at least Newt openly stuck with Todd all the way to the bitter end, and of course I met him back on the campaign trail.

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
Hard Right

I have to wonder why the Stupid Party has so much trouble with Opposition Research….

7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Cuckservative Values

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/south-dakota-governor-bucks-party-line-transgender-veto-37366242

South Dakota GOP Gov. Dennis Daugaard vetoed a bill this week that would have required transgender students to use bathrooms and locker rooms that match their sex at birth

7 03 2016
countenance

I met him a little more than a year ago.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

What was your impression?

7 03 2016
countenance

Genuinely charming enough, otherwise, just takes up space.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Trump Reviving Reagan Coalition in Ohio

http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/mar/03/mahoning-co-sees-k-voters-defect-to-gop/

About 1,000 Democrats in Mahoning County so far have switched their party affiliation to Republican with election officials saying several did it to vote for Donald Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Let’s hope they won’t need it

http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/03/cleveland_seeking_to_buy_riot.html

Cleveland seeking to buy riot gear for Republican National Convention

7 03 2016
Hard Right

A divided GOP doesn’t have a prayer

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0306-mcmanus-gop-crackup-romney-20160306-column.html

This is how a political party looks when it’s coming unglued.

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
Hard Right

Poll: Lubio a distant fourth, Kucksick “surging” in Michigan

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/poll-michigan-gop-2016-220369

Trump 36%
Big Ricky 23%
Kucksick 21%
Pool Boy 13%

Trump had better do well in this one.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/06/trump-and-clinton-lead-michigan/

Trump 39%
Big Ricky 24%
Pool Boy 16%
Kucksick 15%

7 03 2016
Hard Right
7 03 2016
7 03 2016
countenance

This cup is to collect the tears of the 1% of people that would have voted for him.

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
countenance

Rubio?

7 03 2016
Hard Right

Trannies like Cruz. Twinks like Trump. I guess the ones who play the man like Rubio.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

7 03 2016
7 03 2016
countenance

Maybe that explains Milo.

7 03 2016
Hard Right

I thought it was the feminists who had daddy issues.




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