Repeat After Me: Electoral Politics Are Games of Margins

22 03 2016

Youngstown, Ohio

They notice what I’ve noticed, and use the backdrop of Mahoning County, Ohio as a notable piece of evidence.

However:

“The question for Trump is, will the additional voters he brings into the party—mostly white men and those with less than a college degree—offset the almost certain ground he will lose among millennials, Hispanics and, likely, independent-women,” said John Della Volpe, polling director at the Harvard Institute of Politics.

John Della Volpe, director of the Harvard Institute of Politics, doesn’t know that electoral politics are games of margins?  The all important measure is 2016 delta 2012, and aside from the fact that millennials and Hispanics are relatively fringe and unimportant voter constituencies, Trump can’t do any worse among them against HRC than Romney did against Obama.  Independent (“white”) women are a bigger prize, but I tend to think that Romney couldn’t bag enough of those in crucial swing states to win because they’re married to the working-middle class white men who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Romney.  So far, in the winter and spring, Trump is getting those men, and if those men stay with him in the fall, their women will follow.


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