Northeastern Primaries Open Thread

26 04 2016

Should be a Trump sweep winning every contest by at least double digits.

How’s that Cruz-sich non-aggression treaty working out?

Doesn’t matter, TKO was a week ago tonight, and repeating for those needing, what I mean by technical knockout in a political sense is a point where the leader hasn’t yet mathematically won but gathers so much momentum behind him creating such a powerful bandwagon effect that opposing him becomes futile, and that in turn depresses turnout for the other candidates in future states.  John McCain’s TKO was very early in the season in 2008, Florida, Romney’s four years ago was in Ohio on Super Tuesday.

Also worth watching today is MD-SEN-D, which is in essence the election, the Chris Van Hollen vs Donna Edwards establishment Democrat liberal white man versus insurgent outsider black woman contest, (a race where Jewish and Israel issues are the uncomfortable undertone), the one where, according to conventional wisdom, Baltimore City is going to be the decisive battle ground, a city that rioted one year ago tomorrow.

Turnout numbers, today’s added when they become available.

RHODE ISLAND

Republicans

2008:  26,996
2012:  14,564
2016:  59,599

Democrats

2008:  186,439
2016:  117,307

PENNSYLVANIA

Republicans

2008:  815,364
2012:  810,934
2016:  1,573,338

Democrats

2008:  2,333,462
2016:  1,652,863

MARYLAND

Republicans

2008:  320,989
2012:  238,987
2016:  435,600

Democrats

2008:  878,174
2016:  846,899

DELAWARE

Republicans

2008:  50,237
2012:  28,592
2016:  69,470

Democrats

2008:  96,374
2016:  93,437

CONNECTICUT

Republicans

2008:  151,604
2012:  59,578
2016:  212,190

Democrats

2008:  354,539
2016:  328,465

 


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33 responses

26 04 2016
26 04 2016
countenance

All five called for Trump; all that remains to be seen is if he can break 60 in all five contests. His high water mark so far was 59.8 he got in New York a week ago. Also of interest is if Ted Cruz can place second in any one of the five; best chance for that is PA, because of PA’s reputation that it’s Alabama in between Philly and Pittsburgh.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

Small States are looking good.

26 04 2016
countenance

DE is almost 100% in, small state in both pop and geography, no surprise. Christine O’Donnell won the middle and southern of the state’s three counties in both her primary against Mike Castle and the general against Chris Coons. And we can see that again at work: Trump did way better, 67 and 71 percent, in the southern two counties, compared to the “measley” 51 percent he got in the northern county. Except the northern county has Wilmington and suburbs, so it’s got most of Delaware’s people.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

Christine O’Donnell

26 04 2016
countenance

Trump wins Rhode Island.

26 04 2016
countenance

Trump won RI but we found a county or division (in RI’s case, city) he did not win: Barrington. Kasich beat Trump by 13 votes, or less than 1% margin. I looked up Barrington, and it’s 97% white, and highly rated in those best places to live rankings, and pretty high income. It must really be the plutocratic uptown of Providence. Which is why Kasich won it.

There will be very few counties/townships that Trump won’t win tonight.

26 04 2016
countenance

Baltimore City’s first numbers are Edwards 55 Van Hollen 40, and Bell Curve County’s first numbers are Edwards 65 Van Hollen 32. If Donna Edwards can’t get close to monolithic support in Baltimore City, then she’s toast. Might as well call this for Van Hollen now.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

Señor Ricardo Grande not doing so hot tonight.

26 04 2016
countenance

Bern wins RI. Brian’s vote put him over the top.

26 04 2016
26 04 2016
Alex the Goon

Nooooooo, don’t throw us all in the briar patch!

26 04 2016
countenance

Politico calls MD-SEN-D for CVH.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

More riots predicted….

26 04 2016
Hard Right

26 04 2016
Hard Right

26 04 2016
countenance

We’re back to the “he’s too right wing” “he’s not a trew conservative” conundrum.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

26 04 2016
countenance

He’d have a better chance than the other Republicans.

26 04 2016
countenance

DE, RI 100% in, turnout numbers added. Trends are obvious.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

Looks like Cruz is actually going to come in second in PA.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/26/donald-trump-if-hillary-clinton-were-man-shed-get-/

Donald Trump: If Hillary Clinton were a man, she’d get 5 percent of vote

26 04 2016
countenance

He’s also right that women really don’t like her. There aren’t that many women who want a woman to win just for the sake of sex, unlike blacks, who almost universally wanted a black to win for racial reasons. Women really are good at finding any reasons not to like other women.

I’ve been saying that if HRC were left to her own devices, her running mate would be a man and 100% of her cabinet would be men. It’s only because she’s stroking the gender wars and feminist crap that she’s saying otherwise.

26 04 2016
countenance

The election for Baltimore Mayor was also today. Deray McKesson finished in 6th place with 2.5% of the vote. Nick Mosby, the wife of Marilyn Mosby, is in 7th with 1.4%. Because BLM.

26 04 2016
Hard Right

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/kasich-looking-ahead-222496

John Kasich once described the Northeast as his “turf,” and then he got blown out by Donald Trump.

26 04 2016
countenance

Kasich won Westport, Conn. and West Hartford, Conn., probably both well to do towns. Surprisingly, he did not win Greenwich, Conn., also another well to do town.

26 04 2016
David In TN

“We’re back to the ‘he’s too right wing’ ‘He’s not a trew conservative conundrum.”

A week or so ago one of NRO’s leading cucks had a meme of Cruz as Goldwater and Trump as Rockefeller.

How long before it’s “We can live with Hillary?”

26 04 2016
countenance

They screwed up the analogy. Cruz is indeed Goldwater, Hillary is Rockefeller, and Trump is the pragmatic version of Nixon in ’68.

26 04 2016
David In TN

By coincidence I’m reading the 1964 section of the recent Nelson Rockefeller biography. One thing that was killing Goldwater even in the GOP primaries was his extreme libertarian stance-“Make Social Security voluntary.”

I recall a Samuel Francis essay pointing this out. Goldwater drove away blue collar and middle class voters with libertarian tropes which Beltway Right wonks still go on about-“Reform Social Security and Medicare.”

26 04 2016
countenance

No Republican was going to win versus LBJ, not when election day was not even a year after the assassination. Not Goldwater, not Rockefeller, not Mother Teresa.

26 04 2016
countenance

Not only because the blacks didn’t turn out in huge numbers, and Donna Edwards didn’t run up very impressive margins in Baltimore City and Bell Curve County, that helped Chris Van Hollen.

But he had another factor working to his advantage. It’s a factor I’m very familiar with, for personal reasons.

CVH currently holds down MD-8, which is a bit weirdly gerrymandered, but it definitely includes the most prosperous parts of southern Montgomery County, bordering D.C., full of well paid Federal employees and Federal contractor employees, and by Maryland standards, whiter than the state average.

When a Congressman runs for statewide office, it serves him very well if he happens to hold down a district that happens to contain the most well to do most partisanly and ideologically motivated voters of his own political party in the state. If the party primary for the office is contested, then his own district will turn out big and mightily for their Congressman.

CVH won 76% in Montgomery County (even though not all of MoCo is in MD-8), in a race he won statewide with 53%.

In my personal experience analogy, Todd Akin won 49% in his own MO-2, (the 2000-2010 configuration), which, again, has the most well to do most ideologically charged Republicans in Missouri, in a primary he won statewide with 36%.

27 04 2016
countenance

All the total turnout numbers are in, the trend is the same everywhere. Also of note is that PA, a state with a huge D > R registration advantage, and a state whose primary is closed and party changing has to be done at least a month before primary day, is a state where R turnout was pretty close to D turnout, along with the delta trends. Sailer commenters from PA broke it down into crucial counties and parts of counties, and are concluding that Trump has a very good chance in PA in the fall.

27 04 2016



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