Indiana Primary Open Thread

3 05 2016

Indiana

The media keep talking about how Hoosiers are going to vote today.

Huh?  Lots of hoosiers already did vote back on March 15.  And I’m sure Trump did pretty well among them.

(I’ll give you some time to get all your snickering in.)

Silver Mines handicaps the day’s results based on Indiana’s history.  This is good enough, but it leaves out two crucial things:

(1) Indiana has, or rather, had, plenty of manufacturing, but it never had it of the sorts that surrounding and nearby Great Lakes states had it, and most crucially, it didn’t have it in the 1910-1960 time frame.  Which means that the Great Migration of blacks out of the Deep South affected Indiana’s neighbors, but not much in Indiana itself.  You’ll note the part of Indiana that had the most manufacturing and heavy industry, northwestern Indiana, Gary and surrounding areas, that’s the part of Indiana that’s most like Chicago and Detroit.

(2) Contra this reasoning in the Silver Mines, you have to remember that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and would have won Ohio but for John Kasich being its current Governor.  The reasons Trump won the surrounding or neighboring states will be the reason why Trump will have a much harder time winning in Indiana today.  If Trump does win by a healthy margin, it will mainly be because he threw the TKO in the last two weeks, and Cruz voters have just plain given up.


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3 05 2016
countenance

Indiana, being of split time zone, and its polls close at 6 PM local time, is already reporting results from its Eastern time zone counties.

3 05 2016
countenance

TOTAL TURNOUT

Republicans

2008: 412,745
2012: 635,589
2016: 1,102,675

Democrats

2008: 1,278,296
2016: 628,857

In 2008 and 2012, the Republican primaries were held after McCain and Romney respectively had the nominations locked up mathematically, and while I think Trump has already thrown the TKO, he doesn’t have it mathematically, therefore, it is thought that Indiana voters are choosing whether to end it all tonight or give #NeverTrump some breathing room.

For the Democrats, Indiana was held at a time in 2008 when HRC had already started to put together a come from behind winning streak, and Rush Limbaugh had his listeners wreak havoc and vote for her, as McCain had it wrapped up by then.

Put the two together, and you can see why D8 was 3x R8.

Also remember Indiana was a traditionally red state that Obama turned blue in 2008 in November, the other being North Carolina, those two states being blue were a shock even to optimistic Democrats. They are also the only two states that flipped back in 2012.

3 05 2016
countenance

Fox, CNN, Drudge call for Trump. Ace and Politico will soon.

It was just a matter of Cruz voters giving up after Trump threw the TKO last week in Acela. If Indiana was held a month ago, Cruz would have had a much better chance.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

But what about Trump’s ceiling?

3 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
countenance

Cruz is going to win the county that has Fort Wayne, and two small neighboring counties. The best reason my Google research can surmise is that that’s Indiana’s Amish country, or there must be a gaggle of Baptist type churches based there. If I was still in steady contact with Matt Parrott, he’d probably be able to tell me what’s up with that.

3 05 2016
countenance

Bern is starting to open up some daylight over HRC. The problem is that Lake County, with Gary, and all the old black gawdy hat church ladies, has barely reported any numbers.

3 05 2016
3 05 2016
countenance

The dream is over, Carly Fiorina will not be Vice-President.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race-222763

3 05 2016
Hard Right
3 05 2016
countenance

Notice that operation already has Jesse Benton, who defected from Rand Paul to Trump at some point last year.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
countenance

Does one of those “seasoned operatives” include Cheri Jacobus? Start slurping, Cheri.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

They’re all still #NeverTrump. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them do actually support Shrillary.

3 05 2016
countenance

Cruz dropping out now means that he knows he won’t be able to keep Trump south of 1237. As it is, Trump only needs to win NJ and CA to get him over 1237, and we know he’ll do that, and we also know he’ll win WV, and he would even with Cruz in it.

3 05 2016
3 05 2016
countenance

Cruz should have know it wasn’t happening for him this year when Trump beat him in most of the South. I think we’re going to look back at that as the time when Trump really threw the TKO, and that Cruz should have dropped out after SEC Tuesday.

3 05 2016
countenance

Hey I just thought of something. Where’s our resident “He’ll win South Carolina and nothing else” been lately? Doesn’t he want to eat some of the pie I made for him?

3 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
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Shit, I only made one humble pie. I need to bake hundreds of ’em.

3 05 2016
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Lake County is starting to report, HRC is winning it but not by blowout margins, it might not be enough to get her over Bern. I think Bern’s gonna win Indiana.

3 05 2016
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CNN, Ace call IN for Bern. The mammyookems didn’t save HRC’s bacon this time.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

I hope he doesn’t screw up and win. He might be tougher to beat than Shrillary.

4 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
Hard Right

3 05 2016
countenance

I posted this at Sailer a few mins ago.

***

That which got Cruz this far was the same thing that meant that he wouldn’t make it all the way to the top. That is, being a lamestream conservative ideologue who plays by all the soi disant informal political campaigning rules. Like you’ve been saying, lamestream conservatism is trying to solve 1980′s already solved problems in 2016′s world.

The good news for him is that even in our era of the Presidency attaining more and more power over domestic issues, to match its near dictatorial power over foreign and military policy, being a United States Senator is still an enviable position; hell, I was one election away from being a staffer for one. I think that now that he realizes that the Presidency isn’t happening, Cruz will quit acting like he can or should be President, which I think was part of the reason why his Senate colleagues don’t much like him, and get to work being a good Senator. Also, part of the reason his colleagues disliked him is that he came right into the Senate thinking of the Presidency, they didn’t like him because they think he needs to win a couple of terms and pay his dues, and not jump ahead of older more experienced politicians. Now, Baraq Obama ran for and won the Presidency after barely working in the Senate after winning one term, but he was different for one very obvious reason: B-L-A-C-K. Cruz, while “Hispanic,” in terms of having a New World white Spaniard for a father and therefore his surname, wasn’t social justicey or civil rightsey enough for his election to be a profound or a first.

I can compare Ted Cruz to another Ted, that being Kennedy. At some point, he realized that the Presidency was never in the cards for him, and started getting down to business as a Senator. This is why he was able to go from being resented to being loved by Democrats.

***

http://www.unz.com/isteve/one-cheer-for-ted-cruz/#comment-1407083

3 05 2016
countenance

Carly Fiorina had the shortest Vice-Presidential candidacy since our very own Tom Eagleton back in ’72.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

She just needs a little electroshock therapy.

3 05 2016
Hard Right

This doesn’t look real good

3 05 2016
countenance

I’m no more buying that map than I’m buying the one that has Trump winning OR and WA.

4 05 2016
Hard Right

I think it’s fairly accurate at this point in time, but I also think Trump can win Florida, Virginia, and the Rust Belt.

4 05 2016
Hard Right

Maybe you’ll like this one better. It’s quite possible….

4 05 2016
countenance

That’s more like it. Though I think WI and IA are in play.

4 05 2016
Hard Right

http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/03/the-man-behind-the-hilarious-conservative-pundit-parody-account-speaks-out/

There’s also a lot of surface-level material to parody, too, because a high percentage of conservative pundits are pretentious dorks.

4 05 2016
countenance

Tucker Carlson follows DRRR, and had this interview in The DC. I wonder if Tucker Carlson has swallowed the red pill.




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