The media keep talking about how Hoosiers are going to vote today.
Huh? Lots of hoosiers already did vote back on March 15. And I’m sure Trump did pretty well among them.
(I’ll give you some time to get all your snickering in.)
Silver Mines handicaps the day’s results based on Indiana’s history. This is good enough, but it leaves out two crucial things:
(1) Indiana has, or rather, had, plenty of manufacturing, but it never had it of the sorts that surrounding and nearby Great Lakes states had it, and most crucially, it didn’t have it in the 1910-1960 time frame. Which means that the Great Migration of blacks out of the Deep South affected Indiana’s neighbors, but not much in Indiana itself. You’ll note the part of Indiana that had the most manufacturing and heavy industry, northwestern Indiana, Gary and surrounding areas, that’s the part of Indiana that’s most like Chicago and Detroit.
(2) Contra this reasoning in the Silver Mines, you have to remember that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and would have won Ohio but for John Kasich being its current Governor. The reasons Trump won the surrounding or neighboring states will be the reason why Trump will have a much harder time winning in Indiana today. If Trump does win by a healthy margin, it will mainly be because he threw the TKO in the last two weeks, and Cruz voters have just plain given up.