Germans, WTF?

5 05 2016

Berlin

They’re missing the most interesting takeaway.

I live in the world of margins and differentials, in fact, it’s partially how I make a living.  If you want to find the moral of a story or the object lesson in politics, you’ll often find it in a margin or a delta or a differential.

And what jumps out at me is that 61% say that Islam has no place in Germany, 46% are afraid of the Islamization of Germany, yet AfD has only 15% support.  A record for it in that statistic, but disappointing considering the kind of public opinion climate it is operating in.

This means that 46% of Germans both think that Islam has no place in Germany and don’t support AfD, and 31% of Germans are afraid of the Islamization of the country and don’t support AfD.

What.  Is.  Up.  With.  That?

It can’t be Bradley Effect, because the “no place in Germany” and “afraid of Islamization” are just as “socially impermissible” as supporting AfD.  Probably the reason for the disconnect is that the 46%ers and 31%ers are still holding out hope for the “mainstream” parties, except the “mainstream” parties are clear on the other side, including and up to Angela Merkel herself.  The people of the differential have to realize that even if one of the mainstream parties changed course, they would become “far right” and therefore not “mainstream” instantly.

And that is probably the ultimate answer to the mystery of the differential:  People think they need the media’s permission. Of course, that’s not new — Remember Napoleon’s Inequality: Three newspapers > 100,000 bayonets.


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