All Academic

10 05 2016

Nebraska and West Virginia

But still, you get an open thread anyway.

TURNOUT (2016 numbers TBA)

NEBRASKA

2008:  135,712
2012:  185,402
2016:  197,430

WEST VIRGINIA

2008:  117,945
2012:  112,416
2016:  202,880

Both states held their 2008 and 2012 Republican primaries in early-ish May, meaning in both instances, they were held after McCain and Romney mathematically clinched the nomination.  In the case of this year, Trump has TKOed the field but not mathematically clinched.  Trump will easily win VW, and in spite of the fact that Cruz has dropped out, I think Cruz could make it close in NE; if he was still running and viable, Cruz would win NE, because it’s his wheelhouse sort of state.  It borders three states he has already won.

The Nebraska Democrat caucuses have already happened, and Bern won those.  He’s expected to win West Virginia easily today.  WV’s D turnout in 2008 was 359,910, and conventional wisdom has it being way way way down today.  (UPDATE:  241,016, so it was.)  Remember, four years ago, when Obama was in a re-election year, some felon in Federal prison got 40% in West Virginia in the D primary versus Obama.

 


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26 responses

10 05 2016
Hard Right

Weimerica

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10 05 2016
Alex the Goon

Say it, don’t spray it.

10 05 2016
10 05 2016
countenance

He won’t. WV+NJ+CA puts Trump over 1237.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

10 05 2016
countenance

It surprises me Trump is working that quickly. Usually, “presumptive” nominees will burn every day until almost the start of the convention to announce. If Trump is already down to a half dozen, it means that someone has made the decision that quick decision and announcement is going to be politically advantageous for him somehow.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

Maybe they’re stringing the media along with “leaks”

10 05 2016
10 05 2016
Hard Right

10 05 2016
Hard Right

Also possible that he’s made a deal with the cucks on a VP candidate.

10 05 2016
10 05 2016
countenance

Affirmatively Furthering Fair Ballgames.

If it’s Tuesday, (or any other day), it’s Tony Messenger blowing smoke.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

10 05 2016
Hard Right

10 05 2016
countenance

In the context of her career, it’s a South American diplomat who cut a six figure nut to the Clinton Foundation and wants something for it if she becomes President.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

I thought that was Pedro.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

Latest Trump Campaign Video

Hillary has bad judgment!

A video posted by Donald J. Trump (@realdonaldtrump) on

10 05 2016
countenance

Politico already calls WV-R for Trump, Ace has already called WV-D for Bern. It probably won’t be long before everyone else does both.

10 05 2016
Hard Right

10 05 2016
countenance

Another exit has a third of all Democrat voters today voting Trump. Though Trump was never going to have any problems with West Virginia in November; it has been red four straight cycles. I do think that it’s not a one-off contained to WV, that it’s at least a regional harbinger (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) and maybe even national.

10 05 2016
countenance

AP calls NE-R for Trump. So much for Cruz resurrecting his campaign.

10 05 2016
Alex the Goon

Give Him three more days.

10 05 2016
countenance

Insert Glenn Beck joke here.

11 05 2016
Hard Right

11 05 2016
countenance

Bern won every WV county, the most surprising are two which I would have thought Hillary would have won. The first is Kanawha, which contains the state capital, and the Democrats among state government employees tend to HRC, and the other is Jefferson, on the far eastern tip of the handle of the state, the one that borders Loudoun County, Virginia, and Jefferson WV is pretty much suburban D.C. these days, and D.C. areas are also supposed to be big Hillary country.

11 05 2016
countenance

D turnout beat R turnout in WV slightly, 241 to 203, even though the R’s 203 turnout was almost double 2008/2012. But remember, in 2008, D turnout beat R turnout 360-118, yet McCain easily won WV in November. On top of that, I think a lot of Republicans did the Operation Chaos thing, knowing that Trump has it won on the R side, and took a Democrat ballot to vote for Bern just to keep the Democrat race going. That is, if West Virginia partisan primary rules allow for it. WV might be the kind of state where you sign up with a party when you register to vote, and you have to change parties a long time before the primary election day. Unlike Missouri, where there is no party registration, and you take the party primary ballot you want on primary day.




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