Interpreting Graphs and Debunking Shibboleths

13 05 2016

USA

H/T Vox Day.

USA_Births_race

Notice something strange?

Let’s get it, peanut gallery.  The race to the gold star starts…NOW.


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26 responses

13 05 2016
Brad

Things I see…
No change (and it should be there) to the white trendline at the point Hispanic was removed from white non Hispanic. A significant drop during the economic boom of the 90s (abortion increase?) resumption up upwards trend following 9/11.
And of course a massive difference between white and black stats.

13 05 2016
Adoll

You are you optimistic about the 90s. In 94 they ended the Aid to Families with Dependent Children. Notice the drop amount in 94 can also be ranked by time racial time preference.

13 05 2016
Adoll

Nothing strange, but I’m chuckling about the drop in black illegitimacy when WW2 kicked off. And then the slight spike in both races right after the war ended.

13 05 2016
countenance

So far so good, in terms of what people are noticing. I’ll give both Adoll and Brad gold stars. But it’s not what I noticed. So I’m going to hold back on the ultimate gold star.

13 05 2016
dk

no asian?

13 05 2016
AnAnon

the Hispanic rate shoots up during the sub-prime bubble.

13 05 2016
AnAnon

and probably obvious but worth noting: the hispanic rate starts at just after the 1986 amnesty.

13 05 2016
countenance

Another gold star, but not the ultimate gold star.

13 05 2016
john jones

Whites are modeling blacks on ev-ry-thing. Because they are, after all, “the beloved community”, “incapable of sin”, “innocent naifs taken direstly from the State of Nature”, “more rhythm than us” yada yada.

13 05 2016
politefictionblog

Did we stop collecting data after 2008?

13 05 2016
countenance

You’re all seeing good things, and making good points. But you’re not seeing what I picked up on. So I’ll drop a hint.

1949-1965

13 05 2016
sondjata

Spike begins generally “great migration” north.

13 05 2016
Cranmer

Blacks start to climb precipitously from 1949, but whites stay relatively stable until the uptick starts about 1965. Is that where the loss of American Innocence (JFK assassination), the pill and no fault divorce intersect?

13 05 2016
countenance

You noticed the trends like I did, but my interpretation is different. I’ll hold back for a little while.

13 05 2016
AnAnon

A little more of an esoteric point, but that was when restrictive covenants were struck down, along with other similar decisions in the next few years.

13 05 2016
Cranmer

Sorry, and also war on poverty

13 05 2016
jay

1965 = Great society, civil rights, massive amounts of taxpayer’s cash given to blacks to make them “equal”.

Also the same time frame when most western nations opened their borders to the mud hutters.

13 05 2016
Adoll

Well, during that time frame, whites and blacks had approximately the same absolute number of illigitimate kids, using the rule of thumb 87% white remainder black.

13 05 2016
Adoll

Also, you can see the baby boomers hitting puberty, and the results….

14 05 2016
John Jones

1965 immigration reform causes influx of Hispanics who are counted in the “white” category until 1985. Plus causes labor competition which causes whites to feel less secure getting married.

14 05 2016
Nicholas Stix

That until circa 1965, the white bastardry rate was both stable and virtually non-existent. That just happened to be the same year the War on Poverty was enacted by LBJ. (It was also one year after he signed the Civil Rights Act into law–mulatto bastards?–and the year he signed the Immigration Act and Voter Rights Act into law.)

14 05 2016
Fighting_Northern_Spirit

I don’t know about 1949-1965, but what jumped out at me was how little effect The Pill (1960) or Roe v. Wade (1973) had.

14 05 2016
countenance

You all are really coming through with good answers.

I’ll give everyone until later today, then I’ll say what I noticed.

14 05 2016
Alex the Goon

The non-black-non-White group has the steepest rate of increase, starting at The Compassionate Cuckservative’s inauguration.

14 05 2016
countenance

I better wrap this up before I forget.

What jumped out at me about 1949-1965 was that the black rate spiked (even though it wasn’t the same sort of 1965-1993 drastic spike), while the white rate barely increased. That much you can see, but nobody has seemed to grasp the importance of it.

The common cuckservative hobby horse is that black people in the 1950s were all Ward and June Cleaver with very dark tans, until something mysterious and undefined happened in the early 1960s (“those damned liberals”) that fucked ’em up. Even alt-rightists have a similar contention, but different: Their contention is that the victory of the civil rights movement unleashed the natural negro from the oppressive bonds of segregation, and white people’s oppressive segregationist social pressure was the only thing that forced them to suppress their natural propensities and at least temporarily all be Ward and June Cleaver with dark tans.

Okay, so, why did black illegit spike from 1949 going forward? Remember, we’re supposed to think that they were all Ward and June Cleaver in the ’50s.

Really, though, the fact that it did starting in ’49 does not necessarily mean the alt-right contention isn’t true. Remember, everywhere there was some sort of segregationist or apartheid system, it wasn’t a matter of it being strong and invincible then busting apart in an instant. It wasn’t like there was pure evil segregation everywhere until the moment LBJ’s ink dried on the civil rights act on July 2, 1964, and at that instant, all segregation went away. In reality, the segregationist system, even in places where it still existed right up until the 1964 CRA, (and only a handful of states and areas had legalized segregation as late as CRA 64), was slowly falling apart, due to a combination of court rulings, the inevitable pressure against it from democratic republicanism, that maintaining it was too much of a “Nazi” thing to do in the years after we beat Hitler, and other things. AnAnon above referenced the Supreme Court repudiation of restrictive covenants, that being Shelley vs Kraemer, a case that started in St. Louis, in fact, and that happened in 1948, coincidentally, a year before the black illegitimacy spike started. Point being, the victories of the civil rights movement weren’t singular and instantaneous, they were slow, numerous, spread out over time, and cascading. Likewise, in South Africa, apartheid didn’t go away in an instant in early 1994. It was really a slow decades long process, starting in about 1970, where one feature after another after another of the apartheid system was disposed of and disregarded. Personally, I think apartheid was doomed the moment South Africa declared itself a republic in 1961, and as we #NRx know, democratic republicanism and nationalism (including segregationist/apartheid systems) are wholly incompatiable, the former inevitably eats away at the latter.

So, the alt-right hobby horse that the slow repudiation of American segregation “freeing” the black to live out his natural matrilineal/matriarchal propensities, starting in the late 1940s as a function of the civil rights movement starting to yield fruit at that time, is still valid. Too, for the fact that there is an inflection point in the mid-1960s, corresponding with CRM ’64.

15 05 2016
John Jones

Yep. Interesting. The black rate is even dropping in the late 30s (the salutary effects of a segregated dose of American Western European norms) while the white rate is completely flat (a ~3% “mistake” or “rebel” rate) for 25 years.




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