Beaver Open Thread

17 05 2016

Oregon

Yeah, I had you going there for a second, didn’t I?

Peanut gallery be like:  “GET YERR MIND OUT OF TEH GUTTER LOL~!!!!!1”

OREGON TURNOUT (with today’s numbers TBA)

REPUBLICANS

2008:  349,914
2012:  287,955
2016:  361,490

DEMOCRATS

2008:  638,790
2016:  572,485

The Oregon primaries were held in May in both previous cycles, and by then, the nominee was clear, so the turnout comparison will be apples to apples.

Kentucky Democrats also go today.  Bern is expected to win both Democrat events today.  Which is getting some, (cough cough Drudge, cough cough LAT), to ask:  If he’s on such a winning streak, why is HRC the presumptive nominee?  That’s actually an easy question to answer, even if the answer makes Democrats uncomfortable.  As of right now, HRC has 25 wins to Bern’s 20, 1716 delegates won based on contests to Bern’s 1433 (i.e. not counting supers, who will go with the plurality winner if s/he doesn’t get to 2382 based on winning contests), and 12.5m votes to Bern’s 9.4m.  She will still be leading in all three counts after today’s results.  And, in a lot of ways, HRC versus Bern this year is like HRC versus Obama in 2008, the demographics are lining up the same way.  With one YUGE exception:  HRC has the blacks this time, Obama had them in 2008.  Which means black voters, the elderly church ladies, are the singular difference.

UPDATE

KENTUCKY TURNOUT

DEMOCRATS

2008:  701,768
2016:  454,599

Republicans used caucuses this year and earlier this spring, as opposed to a May primary in 2012 and 2008; that was part of the Rand Paul and Kentucky legislature manipulation to let Rand run for both President and for Senate re-election at the same time, the Republicans had to do just a caucus this year and hold it earlier in the calendar.  Such as it is, Senate party primaries are today in Kentucky, too.

 

 

 

 


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16 responses

17 05 2016
Hard Right

Naw, I thought you were giving us the business.

17 05 2016
Hard Right

Not leaving the country?

17 05 2016
Hard Right

17 05 2016
countenance

Here’s a better way to think about the Democrats this year.

HRC wins the votes of four clear constituencies: Carbons, elites, NAMs, borg. Carbon = carbon copies of herself, upper middle aged and older white Democrats. Elites = Higher income people. NAMs = Non Asian Minorities, i.e. blacks and Hispanics. Borg = People who are part of or sufficiently plugged into the high success vectors of society, such as the Federal government, any New York based industry, higher education, especially its administration, (which is why she won Massachusetts in spite of Bern being a neighbor). Bern gets all other sorts of Democrats.

If a state has enough of one or more of the four HRC wheelhouse constituencies, she will win it. If it does not, Bern will win it.

17 05 2016
Alex the Goon

NAMs = Niggers And Mexicans, i.e. blacks and Hispanics.

17 05 2016
countenance

“Clinton”

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/clinton-county-bernie-sanders-country

The only Sanders County in the country is in Montana, and the Montana primary is on finale day, June 7. Something tells me that Sanders wins Sanders County.

17 05 2016
17 05 2016
countenance

Clinton won Clinton County. In fact, it looks like she’s gonna eke Kentucky out, and largely because of her huge margin in Jefferson County/Louisville (old black women).

17 05 2016
Hard Right

LMAO

17 05 2016
countenance

Well, Paul asked, and I did.

17 05 2016
Hard Right

I’m assuming there was no reply….

17 05 2016
17 05 2016
countenance

Behold, the beginning of World War P.

17 05 2016
17 05 2016
Alex the Goon

In unrelated news, Sandton’s city hall has been flooded with home improvement permit requests for room subtractions.

18 05 2016
Hard Right

Thousands of deadbeat relatives welcomed home….




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