March-August-November Romance

24 05 2016

Jefferson City

Why did Nixon put the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November ballot instead of the August ballot?

Because he thinks that a lot of blacks will turn out in droves to vote against it.  If it’s on the August ballot, that would merely create more Democrat primary turnout voters, which would be irrelevant as there are hardly any big or significant contested Democrat primaries in the state this summer.  So it makes no political sense to put in on the August ballot.  But since it’s going to be on the November ballot, if Nixon is indeed thinking what I think he’s thinking, then the blacks will turn out in droves in November, and that will marginally help the Democrat nominees for statewide office beat the Republicans, though it really won’t help HRC versus Trump, because Trump will win Missouri by no less than the margin Romney beat Obama four years ago, and that was in spite of a huge black turnout.  Nixon is thinking about the Governor and downballot races.

Along these lines, State Republican Party Chairman John Hancock is making noises about changing the state from no voter registration by party slash open primaries to voter registration and closed primaries.  When the state Republican convention met over the weekend in Branson, those in attendance endorsed a resolution approving that change, though the change would require a change in formal state legislation.  The Democrats haven’t said anything about this, so I don’t know if they would necessarily oppose it even if they don’t support it.  But we know why the state Republican Party wants to do it, in spite of Hancock’s bullshit rationale — Five letters, and it starts with a T.  This means that I’ll probably be spending some of my time in the 2017 legislative session trying to sabotage the gears of the machinery and gum up the works to make sure this thing doesn’t pass.  First off, I don’t know if this thing would pass the General Assembly at all, and second, it all depends on who the next Governor is.  Going on my assumption that Chris Koster is the next Governor, then whether he would sign it or not is going to be based on how it would affect Democrats, or if he doesn’t care, what kind of log rolling deals could be made.   That said, even if it does pass the General Assembly, I don’t think it would pass with two-thirds of the vote in both chambers, which would be needed to override a veto, if it is vetoed.


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