Brexit Open Thread

23 06 2016

London

I predict that:

(1) Leave wins narrowly,

(1a) Because the polls are showing what I think will be the ultimate narrow margin of victory, but the polls are missing some support for Leave because of the Bradley Effect and some support for Remain because of voter fraud and non-citizen voting, the two will cancel each other out

(2) David Cameron will refuse to implement the formal procedures to exit the EU, based on some pretense, either:

(2a) Openly citing the “whiteness” as the Leave electorate and the “rainbow/diverse” nature of the Remain electorate as an excuse, or citing the narrow margin of the Leave win, or citing the Jo Cox murder, or some combination thereof

or

(2b) He will, for public consumption, and while engaging in superficial but non-substantive measures, pretend to be exiting the EU, in private and behind the curtains, not doing so in substance.

All polls close at 4 PM Central Time, 10 PM local British summer time, and I expect as usual, the same few constituencies that historically hurry up and count after closing, like Sunderland and a few others, will follow suit here, even though the vote is country-wide, and not a per-constituency affair like parliamentary elections.  However, it won’t be until late in the evening our time that constituencies start reporting en masse.


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62 responses

23 06 2016
Joshua Sinistar

Eventually these governments will be overthrown. Their “brilliant” plan to disarm the populace won’t save them. Thousands or Millions of angry men don’t need guns to take out a few hundred old fools.

23 06 2016
Pangur

23 06 2016
23 06 2016
Hard Right

That page stopped updating the National totals. Remain was way ahead in Scotland.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Media sure has been quiet about this. Wouldn’t want the Brits to get the right idea.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/23/reports-up-50-injured-gunman-opens-fire-german-cinema/86282938/

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
sondjata

See that percent residents not born in UK?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis

I’m looking at you London…

23 06 2016
Hard Right

The City also voted “remain.” Pretty sure everybody there’s White.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Lot worse than I thought.

57.5% White British
2.4% White Irish
0% White Gypsy or Irish Traveller
18.6% Other White
0.5% White & Black Caribbean
0.5% White & Black African
1.5% White & Asian
1.4% Other Mixed
2.9% Indian
0.2% Pakistani
3.1% Bangladeshi
3.6% Chinese
2.9% Other Asian
1.3% Black African
0.6% Black Caribbean
0.7% Other Black
0.9% Arab
1.2% Other

23 06 2016
countenance

78.5% white, I don’t know if this is referring to any borough or constituency within London or the London region; either way, that’s actually very good. Especially considering what we’re used to in big cities.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

That’s the percentage of the City itself. Presumably, the wogs are servants.

No real surprise that the financial center would vote “remain.”

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Bummer. Remain is ahead 50.6%

23 06 2016
Hard Right

That’s more like it. Leave at 51.6%

23 06 2016
countenance

Most of Scotland is in, and close to half of London is. Most of the rest of the outstanding cities are in areas where Leave has already won some cities.

Since there are 382 “local authorities” to report, this is a city by city reporting, not a constituency-by-constituency, as there are about 650 of those.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

They’ve got a weird system there. Some of the least populous authorities are counties. Some are unitary districts. Scotland and Northern Ireland differ from England and Wales.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Pound sinks to 1985 levels
Posted at 03:15

The pound continues to fall steeply – it is at $1.34, which is around the lows of 1985.

The FTSE 100 futures is down nearly 8% – we will have to wait for the index to open later to get the actual number.

The Nikkei market in Tokyo is down over 6%.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Whoah! S&P Minis down 73. Dow Minis down 522. NASDAQ 100 down 158.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

ES1 -99
DM1 -627
NQ1 -214.75

24 06 2016
Hard Right

Not much difference from the futures last night. I kinda figured the bankster bots would run them up a bit going into the close. Guess none of them wanted a position over the weekend.

SPX -76.02
INDU -610.32
NDX -181.78

23 06 2016
Hard Right

Yen up 5.8%! Oil down 5.5%. Gold up 4%.

Somebody’s gonna make lots of money tomorrow.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

USD-JPY -4.63%
Brent Crude -4.22%
Gold Spot +4.87%
30 Yr T-Bond +2.36%

24 06 2016
Hard Right

WTI Crude -5.13%
Gold Spot +4.69%
USD-JPY -3.71%
30-Yr 2.50%

23 06 2016
Hard Right

03:40

The BBC is forecasting that the UK has voted to leave the EU.

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

23 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
countenance

What is a bit surprising to me is David Cameron quitting so quickly after this vote. Though remember it was these same kind of differences between PM/party leader and the rest of the party on Europe that led Margaret Thatcher to leave in 1990.

I’ll never figure out why financial and commodities markets are so freaked out over this.

24 06 2016
sondjata

“I’ll never figure out why financial and commodities markets are so freaked out over this.”

Now that’s surprise statement!

Other than the get [more] rich moves? The attempt to influence results (drops were going on all day). Warning shots to others.

But we and they know that the Brexit has a negligible effect on business in the UK and between the UK and anyone else.

24 06 2016
countenance

The financial markets and people in them are a curious mash-up of impulsive, superstitious, rational and long view oriented.

I wouldn’t want to be someone who plopped a lot of money on Remain with a bookie this morning.

24 06 2016
AnAnon

“I’ll never figure out why financial and commodities markets are so freaked out over this.” – the number one tool in the globalists kit is the economic disruption hammer, and England is looking an awful lot like a nail to them.

24 06 2016
Hard Right

I’ll never figure out why financial and commodities markets are so freaked out over this.

US bond market is stable. 30-Year is yielding 2.4% – same as last week. From watching last night, the financial markets were caught off guard. If Grandma Yellen doesn’t say anything really stupid over the weekend, the markets should be back to normal on Monday.

24 06 2016
countenance

By region:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/what-can-we-learn-from-the-eu-referendum-results/

Leave won because Remain couldn’t even get 60% in London and Leave won in Wales when conventional wisdom had Remain winning there.

24 06 2016
countenance

https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/nine-key-takeaways-from-brexit/

#5, could well be true, but Farage and the UKIP, if they pivot correctly after this, could still be very viable.

24 06 2016
countenance

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Taking the special relationship to a whole new level.

Boris Johnson was born in New York, to crank the irony-o-meter up another notch.

24 06 2016
Hard Right

Maybe they can trade hair tips?

24 06 2016
hypie

lol, social fascists running UK will NEVER, NEVER EVER invoke article 50 of EU charter to start the official “leave” process. Expect cheerleading from US Social Fascist clique, spearheaded (of course) by B Hussein & spear chucked by honorary africain Hillary, for the EU to adopt the USG solution against lawfully “seceding” states: declare war on them & kill them & burn all their farms & factories. Worked in US, is perfect tactic to implement EU army & to use it

24 06 2016
countenance

One of the stories of the night were all the safe Labour areas voting solidly or heavily for Leave. Including Rotherham, which has voted Labour in the last two MP elections (one regular one by) with 52%, (and that’s too bad), voted Leave with 68%. Like I always say, margins and differentials, paradoxes and contradictions interest me, because that’s where the moral of the story lies. There’s something to be learned from (white) people who vote Labour all the time yet voted Leave. It’s also an opportunity, for those who are paying attention.

24 06 2016
countenance

Irony Alert: Boris Johnson, two term mayor of London, now a Tory MP and probably the next PM, was the most noted public face of the Leave campaign (even more than Nigel Farage), and helped engineer the Leave win in spite of most of London (save the few boroughs where working class whites are still a force, such as Barking, where UKIP/BNP have had successes, and Nick Griffin came this close to winning Barking for the BNP in 2010), voting to Remain.

I understand that he and David Cameron were good friends at one time. They’re probably not anymore. Cameron has to be pulling his hair out of his head trying to figure out how Shaggy of Scooby Doo fame got the better of him and brought down his political career.

24 06 2016
countenance

Jeremy Corbyn could be out as Labour leader very soon, too.

This means that by October when the Tories pick their new party leader, between last May’s MP elections and then, the Labour leader will have changed twice, the Tory leader once, the LD leader once, and Nigel Farage initially quit UKIP leadership but they begged him to stay, because Douglas Carswell isn’t exactly a colorful personality.

24 06 2016
Hard Right

Londoners call for capital to break away from the rest of Britain following Brexit vote

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/londoners-call-capital-break-away-8276156

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
sondjata

that chart shows just how well the youth have been indoctrinated.

24 06 2016
countenance

But then they grow up, at least in theory.

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
Alex the Goon

We also voted for English Only. And cutting illegals off from services. Give us those two propositions back, and I’ll personally bake some fruitcakes a wedding cake.

24 06 2016
24 06 2016
Hard Right

24 06 2016
24 06 2016
Hard Right

25 06 2016
Joshua Sinistar

I suppose the sell-off shall continue briskly. Cash in your chips, the party’s over. Where will they go next? Set up some guns near the beach. You don’t want this rubbish contaminating your nation. I’m talking to you China, Korea and Japan.




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