For months, Mary Pat Carl has been inevitable.
I’m starting to get the feeling that we should take the in out of that inevitable. I can’t precisely put my finger on it, but I think it’s a combination of that she doesn’t come off quite right, and that it’s a four-way race, two whites and two blacks. I remember the last time there was a two white two black four way race in the city where one of the white candidates was considered the going away favorite, though not quite inevitable: The 1993 race for mayor. Tom Villa, the white favorite, Tony Ribaudo, the other white, Freeman Bosley and Steve Roberts were the two blacks. Guess who won, and it wasn’t Villa. Though as we found out later, forces allied with the Bosley campaign had Ribaudo run in order to bleed enough Italian votes away from Villa.
Four years later, when Bosley ran for re-election, an “oreo” sort of black in the person of former SLPD Chief Clarence Harmon beat him.
Now, Harmon’s son is one of the two black candidates in this race for the next Circuit Attorney. And I think he could be the beneficiary of the same kind of weird quirk election.