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31 07 2016

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

In past years, this post would have been long, detailed, involved, and comprehensive.

Yet, in spite of the fact that I’m professionally paying attention to whole lots of races and ballot measures, I could personally care less for almost the entire part.

My only vote “for” any named candidate on Tuesday will be for Josh Hawley in AG-R, and even that, it won’t be as much for Hawley as it will be against Kurt Schaefer, who I don’t trust any farther than I can throw.  Unfortunately, Schaefer has everything going for him, and I don’t think his dirty ads against Hawley (“he supports Muslim terrorists”) are going to hurt him enough to make him lose.

My final prediction in GOV-R is that I think the only two possible winners will be John Brunner and Catherine Hanaway, and that Brunner will win.  His media game, flesh game and rubber chicken circuit game are much improved in 2016 compared to when I was in an opposing camp to him four years ago, and he has something of a Trump cache, never elected to anything, business world.

SOS-R, Jay Ashcroft easily, because he’s got the name.  He’ll likely be facing former Channel 4 (St. Louis’s KMOV, not Kansas City’s WDAF) anchor mulattress Robin Smith in November, as she’ll win SOS-D quite easily.  Treas-R will be Eric Schmitt; he doesn’t have statewide name rec, but he’s got steam within the state party, and that should be enough.  Lt Gov-R will be Mike Parson out of the Senate, his only opposition on Tuesday is some black woman who works for a Koch front group.  Lt Gov-D will be a name we all recognize, Russ Carnahan.

I’m also going to go out on the line and predict that Stephen Harmon will win STL CA-D.  The months-long favorite, Mary Pat Carl, has been behaving in curious ways lately, which make me think she doesn’t think she’s so inevitable all of a sudden.  The other white on the ballot is campaigning hard, the other black on the ballot isn’t.  So I can see MPC and Stephen Hammacher splitting the white vote, and while the black vote won’t be that much, and while St. Louis City black voters aren’t thrilled with the Harmon surname because his father deposed Freeman Bosley out of Room 200 back in 1997, I don’t think that’s going to preclude a Harmon win.

Also, St. Louis City is electing a new Sheriff on Tuesday; Jim Murphy has been Sheriff for as long as I’ve been paying attention; by the time he leaves on January 1, he’ll have served seven terms, first winning election in 1988.  I don’t have any good or decent read on this year’s candidates much less their running order.  Putting that together with Slay not running for re-election in March/April of next year, and a whole lot is going to be changing in Downtown public power positions in the next few months.


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4 responses

31 07 2016
Hard Right

Thanks. I haven’t really been paying attention, but I’ve been getting robo-calls out the ass. One was Kit Bond endorsing Hawley. A lot of them were, “He’s not a Trew Conservative….” Some of them were, “He’s lying about me….” One was from some “Right to Life” group that endorsed everyone but Greitens.

31 07 2016
countenance

Any explicitly anti-Greitens buys or calls you get is coming from Brunner and his allies. That’s because Brunner and Greitens are both non-politicians, and Brunner doesn’t want Greitens bleeding off the non-politician vote from him.

31 07 2016
Hard Right

I’ll probably vote for Greitens. Hard to believe he was a SEAL. He sounded like a real wimp in the phone call with Brunner.

2 08 2016
countenance

Rush Limbaugh personally cut radio buys for Peter Kindercare, which is not surprising, because both are from Cape, and the Limbaughs and Kinders are intertwining family friends going back a couple generations.

I think it’s really curious why Blaine Luetkemeyer has been so active with buys, when his only primary opponent is some bookstore owner in O’Fallon w whose campaign website is straight out of the Web 1.0 era.




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