As I Have Been Predicting

26 08 2016

Jefferson City

Last two state polls I’ve seen have Trump, Blunt and all the downballot statewide Republicans in the lead.

Except for one.

Guess which one.


Actions

Information

6 responses

26 08 2016
dk

is it Greitens?

26 08 2016
countenance

Yes, it’s the Governor’s race. Koster has an upper single digits leads over Greitens.

26 08 2016
AnAnon

Right to work(I assume that’s RTW) isn’t an issue for the other candidates?

26 08 2016
countenance

The Governor can veto bills, the other statewide executive office holders don’t have that kind of power.

27 08 2016
countenance

AnAnon

I should expound, I shouldn’t have blown off your question that quickly.

It doesn’t matter to the unions if any other statewide office holder supports or opposes RTW. What does matter to them very much is that the one statewide office who has the authority to veto legislation opposes RTW. Because Republicans currently hold and will for the foreseeable future hold near if not absolute supermajority status in both the House and Senate, the odds of a RTW bill and a PP (paycheck protection) bill coming out of the General Assembly every session remain high. That means the unions need someone sitting in 100 Madison who will veto it. Which is why the Governor’s race every four years in our immediate times so interests unions. And while I don’t think the RTW/PP matters are that relevant to the labor market in this state or any state, the interested stakeholders on both sides of the matter don’t agree with my insouciance. This means that the unions are going to move mountains to make sure that the occupant of 100 Madison is someone that opposes RTW. And, working to middle class white people who are either union members or sympathetic to unions are the crucial marginal swing voting constituency in the state.

If the General Assembly was either run by Democrats, or the existing Republicans would permanently surrender on RTW, or if the Republican nominee for governor came out against RTW, then the unions wouldn’t be so anxious about gubernatorial politics.

Meanwhile, they don’t care as intensely about the other statewide races, President, Senate, lower statewide executive offices, because the immediate stakes aren’t as high. Sure, most of the unions in this state will probably endorse Democrats for all those all around, except I can see some of the unions defecting to Trump specifically. But they won’t be antsy pantsy anxious and desperate about those as they are to get Chris Koster in.

This is why I’ve been predicting a statewide Republican sweep on everything except for Governor, and predicting it for some time. And so far, polling is bearing that out.

27 08 2016



%d bloggers like this: