Their City Was Gone

4 10 2016

Columbus, Ohio

Follow the bouncing ball.

Obama won Ohio four years ago, pretty much exclusively because of sky high black middle aged and elderly woman turnout in Ohio’s black heavy counties and because working class whites not involved in the coal industry weren’t feeling Willard.

Hillary has now given up on Ohio.

Her media excuseologists are trying to make the claim that Ohio has changed a hell of a lot in four years.

Somehow, I doubt that very much.

What has changed is that working class white enthusiasm for the Republican nominee is way higher in 2016 compared to 2012, and black enthusiasm for the Democrat nominee is way down.

Apply this to all the states, and it’s going to have drastic Electoral College consequences.

If Hillary is banking on non-black minorities and/or young voters, she, like any politician that does, is already writing her own concession speech.




5 responses

4 10 2016

I keep telling people this and they think I’m crazy. I have been saying for a year that trump will win in a Reagenesque landslide (1980 landslide, not 1984) and they cite the polls. I just don’t think the polls reflect the level of turnout (lots for trump, lots less for Hillary). The only time I wavered was when talking to the ‘anti-semetic whisperer’ and he thinks it will be a rout for Hill. (This was about a month ago though)

Am I just a crazy Midwesterner clinging to my Bible and my gun?

4 10 2016

Check out the polling through the spring summer and fall of 1980. Just off top, early February had Carter 60 Reagan 31, the NYT ran a story about a poll on the Thursday or Friday before election day showing Carter 45 Reagan 39 Anderson 9. In fairness, the early February poll was long before Reagan being the Republican nominee was a certainty, and when the poll was released, the only prim/cauc contest that had taken place was Iowa, where Bush eked out a win over Reagan.

I can think of two Trump-Reagan similarities off top: Their first names are the same except for the first letter, and both of them did TV shows in their lives which prepared them for their later political careers, “GE Theater” and “The Apprentice.”

4 10 2016

I don’t really think Donald and Ronald are that similar, except that I think both of them tilt love their country. I would take Reagan over Trump any day of the week, except for the Reagan amnesty. (To be fair, I never gave the Mexicans much thought until recently, probably because I’m from STL, and for years this has been a Black/White city. I don’t think anybody besides brimlow and Buchanan gave it much thought before 1990) Reagan had a demeaner that said let me lead you because I am your wise old grandfather who knows what to do. Whereas trump is more of a fame whore who is looking for that one last feather in his cap. I just think when the dust settles, it will be trump 55-57% and Hillary 43-45%. You should read the Wikipedia for the 1984 presidential election (if you haven’t already) my favorite quote was when Reagan was asked what he wanted for Christmas, he replied Minnesota would have been nice.
I am for trump all the way, but it would be nice to see him act a little more in control, and not be goaded into responding to every little slight. But on the other hand, we do need a republican with balls, which he has in spades.

4 10 2016

Hillary can’t get above the low 40s, I think that’s more telling than the margins or who is leading.

Reagan and Trump were/are about the same age when they were first the Republican nominee. The big difference is that Reagan already had a previous serious Presidential candidacy (’76), a previous experimental Presidential candidacy (’68), two completed terms as a large state governor, and a well known and developed political ideological reputation, under his belt. Trump, in contrast, made a lot of money, came close to losing it all, then made it all back and then some and then some more and then some more, and thinks of political issues way more on instinct than methodically.

Trump would be the first President who has neither been elected to anything ever before nor ever been a Federal cabinet secretary nor been a military general.

6 10 2016
Fred McMurray

More similarities: both Ronnie and Donnie were married and divorced, both started out as Democrats, and they both appeared in bad movies.

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