Reagan Never Even Carried Minnesota

2 11 2016

St. Paul, Minnesota

And Democrats almost always win mock plebiscites mirroring major elections among K-12 students.

Mash up the two factors, and this news is doubleplusamazing.

Somehow, I don’t think that this will spill up into the state’s 18+ electorate.  Also remember that Minnesota’s Republicans picked Marco Rubio, his only win in an actual state (his other two wins were PR and DC).  Maybe they got him confused with Timberwolves’ PG Ricky Rubio?  But, the D over R margin in the most recent Presidential cycles was 7.7% (2012), 10.2% (2008), 3.5% (2004), 2.4% (2000), 16.1% (1996), 11.6% (1992), 7.0% (1988), 0.18% (1984).  I would not be surprised if the H over T margin as she carries Minnesota is the narrowest since ’84.

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11 responses

2 11 2016
David In TN

It’s forgotten, not least among True Conservatives, that Reagan by no means was a sure thing in 1980, nor was it a blowout start to finish.

The polls were close after the conventions, only a few points difference up to the last weekend. On election eve, when Jimmy Carter was flying back to the White House, his pollster Pat Caddell told him he had lost. It had broken big to Reagan over the final weekend.

Now Caddell sees the same thing happening this year. He thinks Trump can win a landslide.

I don’t know about a landslide. In 1980 demographics and the Electoral College favored Reagan. This is no longer true. In no small part due to the Stupid Party leaders, including Reagan’s 1986 amnesty.

Still, it looks like Trump can win.

2 11 2016
countenance

Re the history. I know that one “credible” poll released the Thursday before ED in ’80 showed Carter +6, and that the best for Reagan in polls was even.

Re Caddell — I think a Trump +10 pop vote margin, like the real result in ’80 was Reagan +9.7, is not outside of the realm of possibility. If that’s what Caddell means by a “Reagan style landslide,” (and +10 is hardly a landslide), then yeah, I can see that. The YUGE difference between the current year and ’80 is that a +9.7 could get you 489 EC votes, but today, with people being more clumped and cloistered geographically and politically, it takes way bigger pop vote swings to engineer noticeable swings in the EC. If Trump +10 in pop vote reality, I don’t see that getting him beyond the mid-300s in EC.

Likewise, for a very long time, sans strong third parties, the two major party candidates are guaranteed 3/8 of the vote nationally (37.5%). The fight is over the other 25%. The difference again is that in the past, that 25% could swing the EC all the way to the bookend extremes. Today, again, thanks to geographical-political population clustering, even a 62-38 win for one party or the other, and it’s guaranteed that the loser will win a slew of states and get enough EC votes such that the map is nowhere near totally red or totally blue.

3 11 2016
Hard Right

I’ll be amazed if the polls are six percent off. This isn’t the same country it was in 1980. The media wasn’t actively campaigning against Reagan. They didn’t think he could win. The Stupid Party wasn’t trying to sabotage his campaign.

I don’t think Trump can get much more than 300. My best scenario has him at 327. Worst-case 269 tie. The polls seem to be off by three or four percent. The trend this week is favorable. It’s starting to look like he might actually win PA. I hope he can keep his mouth shut.

I’m going to give him a 60 percent chance of winning. I might look like an idiot next week, but I doubt that I’ll look any worse than these asshats:

3 11 2016
countenance

There was an openly anti-Reagan faction in the Republican Party, (many of whom started out as Bush supporters, to bring it full circle), and they never really got on board the Reagan train even during the campaign, but they weren’t as vociferous or treacherous as the equivalent of the #NeverTrump gang today.

3 11 2016
Hard Right

They kept their mouths shut after Bush was chosen as VP. National Review wasn’t writing articles in support of John Anderson.

3 11 2016
AnAnon

Maybe the somali takeover of the DFL will be a bridge too far?

3 11 2016
3 11 2016
Hard Right

3 11 2016
David In TN

Probably not far off.

5 11 2016
sneldip1

Minnesota was VP candidate Mondale’s home state in ’80, and Mondale was the Dem nominee in ’84, so that outcome isn’t very surprising

9 11 2016
Steve Sailer Takes a Victory Lap Around Life | Countenance Blog

[…] The last time Wisconsin was red was 1984.  Minnesota is still outstanding, but 100% of the vote is counted and HRC has a 1.4 point lead.  “I would not be surprised if the H over T margin as she carries Minnesota is the narrowest since ’84.”  Gee, who said that? […]




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