Mid-Afternoon Turnout Gauge

8 11 2016

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

From the reports I’m getting, South County is somewhat but not drastically higher than four years ago, West County is about the same, and North County is noticeably lower.  St. Charles County is a bit higher.

Note that I’m talking about 2016 delta 2012, not the overall turnout in terms of a one-instance snapshot.  One other caveat is that the comparison is only among morning hour voting.  We know that black voters, to the extent they turn out, will tend to be afternoon voters, and that’s the way it was locally and nationally four years ago.  So, the trick then will be to compare afternoon and early evening turnout this year compared to afternoon and early evening of four years ago.  However, I think the pattern that we saw before noon will hold for after noon.  Unless the voters have some major surprises, these deltas will be irrelevant in the Presidential race; Romney beat Obama by nine points in 2012, and I’ve been saying that Trump will beat Hillary by some margin higher than that, and the 16 delta 12 turnout gauge so far seems to bear that prediction out.  Where this will matter is the statewide downballot — I think this is decent news for downballot Republicans except for Greitens, as I’ve been saying over and over and over again in this space, the politics of the gubernatorial race this year are both single-issue and strange.  I don’t think this news about the turnout portends anything either good or bad on behalf of either Koster or Greitens.

My polling place was The Heights in Richmond Heights, and I voted in the 6 AM hour.  From people that were at the same place at the same time four years ago, they told me that the traffic was slightly reduced.  Richmond Heights is a mildly but not overwhelmingly blue area.

I don’t have any gossip from other and especially swing states in this stead.  I hope some of you do.

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11 responses

8 11 2016
Hard Right

Heavy Prole Turnout in the Boonies

Parking lot was packed. Never seen that before. Went inside and there were about 50 ppl in front of me. Almost all proles. Only saw two guys wearing a tie. One woman in a pantsuit. Half the men were wearing baseball caps. Trump supporters? Avg age looked to be about 45. Slightly more men than women. Four millennials came in behind me, saw the line, turned around, and left. Only three groids in line. All bucks. Only female was the Commiecrat election judge. Figured the two old ladies in front of me for Shrillary. Kid behind me trying to grow a beard looked like a Bernie supporter. Had to wait in line for 45 mins. Never had that happen before. Another 50 ppl behind me.

8 11 2016
Cranmer

Voted at Bonhomme Presbyterian in chesterfield. 100 people in line at 6 am. 75 when I left at 7:00. My neighborhood Facebook page reports line about 30-40 people long throughout the morning.

8 11 2016
countenance

What was that like compared to four years ago at the same place at the same time?

8 11 2016
Cranmer

Most I have ever seen in line was 15, and that was this years primary. I always vote when polls open, so don’t know about this afternoon/evening.

8 11 2016
dk

went to vote in MO-D1 at 6:30

long line, went from a library to the gym.

113 people voted before i did. jackass in front of me was waving his ballot around and i saw he ticked hillary.

we’re heavy dem and i blame jim cain for his antics during the primary for black pilling people.

8 11 2016
dk

it was a smaller turn out at 4 years ago, sameish time. was surprised there was a wait this morning.

8 11 2016
countenance

Afternoon turnout is the same delta pattern, albeit heavier.

8 11 2016
countenance

Kander filled out a paper ballot. He’s the SoS, and that he doesn’t trust the electronic system should tell you a lot.

8 11 2016
countenance

Lake St. Louis middle school — 3 hour line to vote. Somehow, I get the feeling those are Trump voters. St. Charles County overall is a bit up both morning and afternoon this time delta four years ago, so that one polling place must have something wrong with it that’s causing that long wait.

8 11 2016
dk

whay are people watching for the election count? fb? jewtube

8 11 2016
Cranmer

The only decision left is who do want to watch announce Trump is president? Meagan Kelly? Racheal maddow? Wolf? Lester? Charlie Rose?

Seriously, that is your choice.




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