Back to Square One

21 11 2016

Washington, D.C.

One speculated reform that could be done per-state (ME and NE already do it) and therefore without the need for a Federal Constitutional amendment to the Electoral College is doing it per Congressional district.  One EC point for every Congressional district win, and then the winner of the state at large gets two points.  The winner of D.C. would get the same three it already is in the current EC, as the current EC gives DC the number of electors that is two more than the actual state with the lowest number of Congressional districts.  And that “lowest number” is always one, which means D.C. always gets three EC votes.  Meaning the total number of possible EC votes would still be 538, which still means 270 is the winning number.  Presuming the total House membership of 435 is forever fixed, though I have floated a credible plan otherwise.

But I don’t see how it would make anything any different.

Remember, as some people constantly remind us, Congressional districts have a reputation for being gerrymandered.  As we all know, the generic 2012 Congressional vote was 48.8% D, 47.6% R, but it yielded a 233-202 R majority.  In 2012, Obama won 26 states plus DC, Romney won 24 states.  So, if you presume that Congressional district wins are a high correlation proxy for Presidential voting results within a Congressional district, and they are, then this means Romney gets 233+24(2) = 281.  He wins the election under that system.  In spite of Obama winning more states, more total votes nationally, and winning the extant Electoral College system.  Fit meet shan.

UPDATE:  Romney won 226 districts to Obama’s 209.  Which means Congressional Republicans were seven better than their party’s Presidential nominee.  But it still means 226+24(2) = 274, Romney still wins in that scenario.

Let’s move it up to this year.  Presume the two Louisiana Congressional runoffs go R, and we know one will because the runoff is between two Rs, then you’ll have a 241-194 House.  I know that Congressman Tim Ryan, a Democrat who holds OH-13, Youngstown, Warren and parts of Akron, wants to challenge Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader, and OH-13 as a Congressional district voted Trump.  A rare example of a split within a district.  However, the counterexamples probably offset, to where it’s pretty safe to assume that Trump won 241 Congressional districts and HRC won 194.  We also know that Trump won 30 states to HRC’s 20.  Meaning Trump gets 241+30(2) = 301 EC votes under this system, compared to the 306 he got in reality.  Not much different.




One response

21 11 2016

Speaking of Tim Ryan, you kinda knew this was coming:

It's your dime, spill it. And also...NO TROLLS ALLOWED~!

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