Your Blogmeister’s Desk
I had a chance earlier today to think about TFR. Yeah, I know, I really had a jazzed day.
Anyway, to my amazement, the black American TFR as of 2013 was only 1.88, well below replacement level. Stories about L’Booshondraniqua having 16 kids by 15 men make for good sensationalist copy, but as it turns out, they’re far more the exception than the rule.
The graph, from a blog that seems to be friendly territory:
Between 1980 and 2013, the only time period in which black TFR was appreciably above RL was 1987 to 1995; otherwise, it hovered close to RL on either side, and since the start of the Great Recession, it fell noticeably below.
One other thing black Americans were infamous for in the 1987 to 1995 time frame was a very eerily similarly sharp bump and then decline in violent crime and homicide rates.
Coincidence? Or correlated? Because I can think of an argument for both sides.
If they are correlated, then the irony-o-meter would be busted, because in that case, whatever was causing a higher murder rate was also causing a higher birth rate.