26 02 2017


Yes she could.

And the reason why she could is because her public relations campaign of dediabolization of the party is yielding fruit that will show up in the runoff round of the voting.

The consensus of political scientists is that in electoral systems like that in France, and also Louisiana, and recently, California, where it’s everyone in the pool for the initial round of voting, then the top two face each other the runoff, voters have an affirmative mindset in the opening round and a defensive mindset in the runoff.  Meaning that they vote for who they really want or who is most like them in the opening, then vote against who they fear more in the runoff.

That was the perhaps delusional hope behind California Proposition 14 in 2010.  The thought was that such a system would enforce the precepts of political moderation (which, practically applied, means centrist establishmentarian neoliberalism or neoconservatism), but it was fed into the modern day California electorate.  Everyone’s mileage always varies.

In previous election years, the problem for JMLP and then MLP, and the FN in general, is that there are always enough French voters who affirmatively want either person or the party to get them either first or second in the opening round, but the media-establishment-((())) jihad against them means that way many more voters fear J/MLP-FN than the “mainstream” left or right party, meaning we flame out in the runoff.  MLP’s PR effort has that in mind, to get people to fear the FN less to give it a puncher’s chance in the runoff, and at the same time, trying to get people to fear the “mainstream” parties more.

This was the permanent lead anchor around David Duke’s ankle.  (Remember, Louisiana.)  Enough affirmative support to make the runoff, but way more fear of him always to lose in the runoff.




5 responses

26 02 2017

Reminds me of NYC School Board elections. A game of chaotic twister without the fun.

26 02 2017

It will require divine intervention for her to win. So if she does win, it’s a sign to remove kebab.

26 02 2017

I’m not sure if De Gaulle would be thrilled or horrified. I doubt the French State, or the EU, survive her victory, if she overcomes the court challenges to overturn it. The French people have been completely polarized since at least they sat down in that tennis court.

28 02 2017
Somewhat Gullible Chicagoan (Vote Quigley!)

You have to understand 1) France as Chicago, i.e. democracy writ large, which explains the fear part, and 2) White France (for lack of a better term)is near panic. Marine will win, being the candidate who shows the best understanding of what is going on. Like Geert. Like Brexit. Like Trump. Like the Polish Law & Order Party. Like Orban. Etc. The digging is stopping with these politicians, and actually getting out of the hole is the task of their successors.

You only listen to the courts when a) you are weak, or B) they affirm your will.

BTW, De Gaulle would have been horrified. He saw France as the natural leader of its former francophone colonies, IOW, France as influencing the Mediterranean, like the USSR’s influencing eastern Europe, but softer– like the USA’s influence over western Europe.

26 02 2017

Here is hoping Le Pen will do enough to fix France.

It's your dime, spill it. And also...NO TROLLS ALLOWED~!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: