As I Figured

11 05 2017

Washington, D.C.

Census lets loose of 2016 voter demographics research data, as the Bureau tends to do in May or June following the November elections of even-numbered years, Presidential or midterm.

The main conclusion was that black turnout was way down, compared to the two Obama cycles.  That’s something I knew would happen before it actually happened, and after it happened, I was able to confirm my own prediction which turned out to be correct with the fact that the raw total vote counts from heavily black counties and jurisdictions in 2016 was significantly down compared to 2012.  For instance:  St. Louis City had 144k total votes in 2012 compared to 129k in 2016.

Also, this same data set showed that 18-24 yo voters turned out way less in 2012 than they did in 2008 or even 2004.  Though they had a mild increase in 2016 compared to 2012.  The importance of that is that we had to hear a lot of noise in the 2012 postmortem about young voters, Millennials and the coalition of the ascendant.  Then, the Census Bureau in June 2013 came out with this same research, and showed that Obama’s re-election rode on the backs of stratospheric turnout among middle aged and elderly black women.

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