Must Stop Meeting Like This

8 06 2017

London

I didn’t have to look at David Dimbleby once between May 2010 and May 2015.  Now, I’ll be looking at him for the second time in the time period I was hoping I didn’t have to see him at all, and overall for the third time in three current years.  He anchored Brexit vote coverage for the BBC last year at about this time, and because of the April May June stunt, he’ll be anchoring the coverage for the snap general election tonight on the BBC.  He’s already 78, so one can only hope he’ll retire before the May 2020 elections.

I’m really interested to see how UKIP will fare today.  The successful Brexit vote last year, and Theresa May actually following through, would point to the rug being pulled out from under it, and most UKIP voters slithering to the Tories.  But, with the Religion of Peace being so peaceful in the last few weeks, and May’s idiocy in response, (“it’s the internet’s fault”), that could be a vector that works in the opposite direction, that moves voters from Tories to UKIP while at the same time minimizing UKIP to Tory movement over Brexit.

I’ll update this post through the late afternoon and evening, and consider this the British election open thread.

4:06 PM

Polling and exit polling are all over the place, ranging from Tory+50 to Tory-15, if the Tories come under 326 seats, then it’s a hung parliament.  Right now they have 330.

4:51 PM

If this stunt winds up blowing up in Theresa May’s face, then in retrospect, then everyone should have been able to see it coming.  She was banking on riding on the backs of the politics of the Brexit vote, when there was a different political dynamic at work there than there are in conventional parliamentary electoral politics.  May guessed that since Brexit won in a lot of marginal to fairly solid Labour constituencies in England, that meant the Tories could pick them off in a snap election with Brexit fresh on voters’ minds.  Plain words, May doesn’t seem to be getting the post-Brexit vote credit for Brexit.  Which makes sense, because from what I remember, she was a mild opponent of Brexit.

5:04 PM

Newcastle Central was the first constituency to declare, when one on Sunderland is usually the first.  Labour had a substantial gain, the Tories a noticeable gain, while UKIP had a substantial loss.  The seat is a safe Labour seat.

5:14 PM

The one in Sunderland that usually declares first has just declared.  UKIP collapsed, but this time, the Tories gained more than Labour, even though the seat is safe Labour.  I think the sum total of the two constituencies that have declared so far is going to be the story of the night insofar as UKIP is concerned — Brexit made UKIP redundant, and the Tories and Labour will about evenly harvest the dividends from the outpouring away from UKIP.  Just as UKIP itself two years ago drew blood about evenly from the Tories and Labour, and a bit from the LDs.

6:34 PM

Now I’m starting to hear the noise of “Brexit may have to be delayed if May or whoever replaces her as PM if she steps down doesn’t have an absolute Tory majority behind her, because we don’t need a weak government slash hung parliament negotiating for Britain.”  How convenient.  It’s like I said about Brexit after the Brexit vote:  In spite of the vote, IBIWISI, and that the political establishment would find 50 million different excuses to delay or drag their feet, hoping that it will drift off people’s minds, as people have a short attention span anyway, and nobody will suffer any consequences, and nobody will care, when it dawns on everyone that Brexit hasn’t formally happened and won’t.

8:07 PM

About an hour ago, I started to think that Theresa May did this all deliberately to sabotage Brexit.  And, Nigel Farage is dog whistling that same accusation.

8:27 PM

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is also having a bad night.  Tonight might well be the Waterloo for both the SNP and UKIP.  Maybe I’m being a Polyanna, but this very well could open up a lane for a renewal of the BNP.

8:48 PM

Remember Nick Clegg?  In 2010, his visage was Obamaized in the famous “HOPE” poster.  Tonight, he lost his constituency to Labour.

9:32 PM

UKIP has lost its only seat to the Tories.  Which, considering how the night was going before now, was predictable.

10:30 PM

The way a lot of people are talking, there was a lot of serious political talk about both a second Scottish independence referendum and a second Brexit referendum.

10:39 PM

I wrote off Jeremy Corbyn as a nut, and he might still be.  But it turns out he’s a more wily and clever campaigner and flesh-pounder than anyone gave him credit for being.

11:00 PM

Tories have 288 seats, 38 short of a majority, 53 left to declare.  Nigel Farage is now making noises about getting back into politics somehow.

I must surrender to the sandman now, so we’ll see what things look like in the morning.

Friday 7:35 AM

Tories finish with 319, a loss of 11.  The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, always allied with the Tories, will add its numbers to give the Tories a functioning majority, and it’s said that this won’t knock Brexit off its perch.

No IA&Bs about it, yesterday was a disaster for Theresa May.  When she called this snap election, she was fully electing the Tories to get at least 400 seats.

8:00 AM

Yeah, we know, you’re gloating.  And also, homosexuality is implicit whiteness.

Really though, British nationalism wasn’t a jumping scene even before Brexit.

I will have to confess that yesterday, as a surprise extra date on the 2016-2017 Kek World Tour, was never going to be a good one for the Alt-Right, no matter which way you slice it.

8:39 AM

Of course I think UKIP is better off with Nigel Farage running it.  But I don’t think that would have made yesterday turn out any differently for UKIP.  What killed UKIP yesterday was that Brexit made UKIP obsolete.

Sunday 7 PM

Well well well.  Looks like somebody’s cynicism has just been vindicated.

Monday 10 AM

Funny how that works.

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3 responses

9 06 2017
Lewis33

The silver lining in this is that May will likely go (in a few months), while not being replaced by Corbyn. Boris or whomever will take her place will be no worse than May, with a slight chance they’ll be better. All in all I say this was a good night, who want’s Jeb Bush to win in a landslide anyway?

9 06 2017
John Vawter

I wish Spencer would become better informed about the situation in the UK before he offers an opinion on it.

10 06 2017
hondo

So is UKIP a one-trick pony?




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