The 2020 Democrat Party Presidential Nominee

7 03 2019

Wilmington, Delaware

Here’s why it’s going to be Biden, in spite of this claiming that “he faces doubts about whether he can win over minority and younger voters that are fueling much of the party’s current energy and success.”

It’s because he’s up really big among likely black Democrat primary voters in South Carolina.  Which probably also means he’s up big among likely black Democrat primary voters and caucus goers in the whole country.

Remember, that was HRC’s ace-in-the-hole, the only factor that helped her beat Bern in 2016.

And you also have to remember that black voters tend to get behind the big boss;  They generally aren’t known for fueling outsider insurgents.  If it were up to black voters and politicians, Baraq Obama would have gone nowhere in 2008 versus HRC;  The ground-air combo which propelled Obama to a viable position such that the water got warm enough for black voters and pols to defect from HRC to him was white doctrinaire progressives and anti-Iraq War activists on the ground, and the early adopter endorsements from high level white women elected Democrat officials in the air (Claire McCaskill was one), largely out of Queen Bee Syndrome, or one of the many reasons that women can come up with to despise a given woman.

Biden is perceived as the current “big boss” and “it’s his turn” in Bob Dole parlance, because he was the most recent two-term Democrat Party Vice-President.

And if Biden has enough of the black vote, considering that everyone else in the blue team clown car will be dividing the rest of the vote up 87 ways to Sunday, (or rather, 30 ways to Tuesday), that will mean Biden will finish in first place in states with enough blacks.  While that won’t immediately mean he’ll rack up an insurmountable delegate lead, because the DNC doesn’t do winner-take-all, it means that as he keeps winning enough contests, it’s going to discourage the other riders in the clown car, who will one by one give up.

I also think after the midterm failures of Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum and Ben Jealous to punch through, the latter in a solid blue state, no less, I think the DNC brass is thinking it better run a stale pale male for President.  Biden not only fits that bill, but probably is the best chance for the blue team to flip the PA-MI-WI geography back to blue, because of his faux populism, and for the fact that he’s a Scranton, Penn. native.

If not, then Biden will be just the Dole-style sacrificial lamb.

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3 responses

7 03 2019
David In TN

“And you also have to remember that black voters tend to get behind the big boss.”

Absolutely. A corollary to that is what I read somewhere and have seen many times. Namely-Blacks like it when a white man with a Southern accent is on their side.

The McGovern liberals were surprised when ex-Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter swept the black vote in the 1976 Democratic primaries. Carter was “fuzzy on the issues,” but gave the vibes blacks like.

The black vote put Carter far enough ahead that a late flurry from Jerry Brown couldn’t keep him from racking up the necessary delegates. And it was perceived Carter could break through in the South and win. So the Northern liberals reluctantly went along with Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Bill Clinton was similar in 1992. And Clinton was much more “one of us” to the liberals than Carter was. Again, the conventional wisdom was the Democrats needed to nominate a “moderate” Southerner to win. They even put Al Gore (nominally from Tennessee) on as VP. They were that desperate to win after 12 years.

As far back as 1956, Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver ran well among blacks in the Democratic primaries. He was a white Southerner who was mildly pro Civil Rights.

I don’t know if Biden can do this. He never has done very well as a Presidential candidate, but Dole hadn’t either in previous (1980 and 1988) tries.

The left can be pragmatic when there’s no other alternative. They would go with a “White Male” if they think that’s what it takes to beat Trump.

The term “clown car” has never been more descriptive.

9 03 2019
Hard Right

If they were smart, they’d nominate Beto – an unknown White guy from the South.

14 04 2019
Cui Biden | Countenance Blog

[…] The only reason to harp on Joe Biden’s 1970s transgressions against the current year sacraments of social justice is if you’re looking to dislodge the all-important decisive black vote away from Biden. […]

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