Brexit Party, Explained

22 05 2019


The MEP elections will be held between tomorrow and Sunday, day varies by country.  Germany goes on Sunday, while the UK goes tomorrow.

The Brexit Party, i.e. Nigel Farage’s new cheering section, is most likely going to finish in first place, and may get an absolute majority.

But there are three sources of wind to his back:

(1)  Because Brexit is eventually supposed to happen, (in theory), this has created a disincentive for the “mainstream” parties and its voters from caring at all about UK MEP.  They have mentally checked out.  And to the extent that LibLabCon voters will show up, a significant percentage will vote for the Brexit Party, because they support and voted for Brexit.

(2)  MEP uses the D’Hondt Method for seat apportionment.  While it and a Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMPR) system that Germany uses Federally and in most of the states are pretty similar, there are some slight differences.  However, either are way different than First Past the Post (aka Winner Take All), that the UK uses domestically.  Meaning that, unlike the UK’s domestic elections, there’s no actual or perceived “wasted political energy” in voting for a non-lamestream party in MEP elections in the UK.  Remember, the BNP had its greatest successes in the 2009 MEP.

(3)  With as badly as post-Farage UKIP is doing, it’s clear that UKIP was Farage and Farage was UKIP.  And likewise, Farage is the Brexit Party and the Brexit Party is Farage.  Really, Nigel Farage can draw a crowd wherever he is and whatever he’s doing, even if it’s just jugging tennis balls.

The reason for me pointing this all out is that all this wind to his back for MEPs is the same wind that will suddenly to be to his face when the UK holds its next domestic elections.  Meaning I don’t buy the conventional wisdom that Farage/BP doing outstandingly well tomorrow will automatically translate to him/it doing well the next time Westminster is up.  (Which may be sooner rather than later, from what I hear.)  Unlike here in Germany, where all parties credibly involved know that the results of Sunday portend for 2021, because D’Hondt and MMPR are so similar.  So much so that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (“AKK”), whom Angela Merkel has turned over day-to-day control of the CDU’s functional operations as a political party, and would become Chancellor if the next elections result in a CDU-led coalition, has called for an emergency convention of the CDU next week after the MEPs.  Mainly because everyone knows the CDU will take a thrashing in the MEPs, compared to five years ago, and AKK has to find a way to stop the bleeding.  Probably massive cabinet reshuffling, and there’s even talk about Merkel retiring early to let AKK herself slide into Chancellor, though Chancellors’ mid-term retirements have never been a thing in German politics, like PMs’ mid-term retirements frequently happen over on Cuck Island.

Back to Farage, whatever momentum he draws from the results tomorrow, by itself, it means nothing for the next national elections.  That’s because it’s First Past the Post instead of any kind of proportional system, and motivated LD, Labour and Tories instead of dejected.  However, two things that are going for him on that end is that (A) the three lamestream parties are in the process of ripping themselves apart for various reasons, Brexit itself being one of them, and (B) the axiom that in the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king.  As of right now, and probably for the foreseeable near future, Nigel Farage is the only big name figure in British politics who can chew gum, hold his finger on his nose and walk in a straight line, all at the same time.

If a lot of stars line up in the right way, that straight line will be through the doors of Number 10.




11 responses

22 05 2019

Speaking of, I’ve written on my socials this parody lyric about this milkshake business:

“My milkshake brings all the goons to the streets, and they’re like, I’m woker than you, damn right, I’m woker than you…”

That is of course is a song reference, but most of you won’t get it.

22 05 2019

Through the day, the Theresa May government has been in the process of collapsing. If the MEP results tomorrow turn out like it is thought they will, especially for the Tories, and the last poll shows them at 7%, May will be out on Friday.

23 05 2019

Note: No results for any country will be announced until all countries have voted after the end of Sunday. Even though a country only votes on one given day. This is to prevent results of one country affecting the turnout in other countries.

24 05 2019
Hard Right

Go, Sargon!

24 05 2019

I take Theresa May’s official resignation today (officially on June 7) as a clue that there are credible exit polls out there that show that the Tories will do either as badly as or even worse than the polls suggested. Even though results won’t be unveiled until Monday after all EU states have voted.

24 05 2019
Hard Right

Go, Boris!

24 05 2019
25 05 2019
Alright Dan

Freshly minted cooks and janitors!

25 05 2019
Hard Right

We spent a quarter million dollars a piece on cooks and janitors?

“The scholarship value of a U.S. Military Academy education is $226,051, as of April 2017,” West Point’s public affairs office told The Daily Caller on Tuesday.

25 05 2019
Alex the Goon

Some of them must have defied the laws of physics, space, and time, to perform any sit-ups with those gunts in the way.

27 05 2019
Hard Right

Sargon and Robinson both lost. Results from Scotland not released yet.

It's your dime, spill it. And also...NO TROLLS ALLOWED~!

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