Bonk on the Prediction

1 11 2020

Washington, D.C.

So it’s really going to happen.

In spite of my prediction. One that I made, shortly before that day, and at the time and in the place that was the last time I ever played golf.

I would have thought that someone or something would have gotten to him by now.

The first Presidential election results night I can consciously remember as such was 1984, age seven, and the next one, 1988, age 11, was the first where I really understood the nuances of what was going on, not only then, but also the primary and caucus process earlier in that year and starting in late 1987, when a certain someone first started sounding like someone who seriously wanted to run for President.

This will be the first cycle where I will be unable to watch the live results, for the obvious time zone differences. The way the conventional wisdom talking heads are running their yammers, the outcome probably won’t be known in short order. So, when I get up at six in the morning my time, it’ll be midnight in the US East, 11 PM in St. Louis. So it probably won’t be resolved even by then.

***

Speaking of elections, there’s already talk of delaying Germany’s Federal elections next year, which, statutorily, must take place on or before October 24, and on top of that, six federal states also go next year. Why? Because virus, of course. I happen to think virus is the excuse; I think the real reason is that the C-Duh-U is trying to buy more time, not only around the conventional set of politics, affairs and news that it can’t control, but also because replacing Merkel as party leader is turning out to be big damned clusterfuck and a daily soap opera; congruently, supposedly because virus but really because internal party politics, the C-Duh-U’s party convention has been pushed back to January.

***

Open thread for predictions and last minute news. Etc.


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77 responses

1 11 2020
countenance

Read that NYT article from ’87, and you’ll count a whole lot of “the more things change” moments. Like Solomon said…

2 11 2020
Hard Right

I haven’t been paying any attention because I really don’t give a shit. We know the polls are off by 2-6 percent. We also know that White proles put fuckhead in office. He hasn’t done shit for them. I don’t see them turning out. It’s about like 2012 where it looked like Romney might win. I’m gonna have to go with Creepy Joe winning by a small margin.

See you guys on the Dark Web.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

I’m glad Roissy hasn’t completely lost his marbles.

https://gab.com/Heartiste/posts/105136866160404901

He’s started a real shitstorm over there.

2 11 2020
countenance

OT

I saw that Missouri just recorded its very first Covid-19 death for someone under 18, namely, an eighth grader from Franklin County.

Before even looking, I guessed he or she was either overweight or had an underlying condition.

Then I looked.

https://www.kmov.com/news/eighth-grader-in-franklin-county-dies-from-covid-19-school-says/article_9031a344-1cb1-11eb-b941-33a2fcb5666d.html

2 11 2020
Hard Right

Fooled me. I thought it was another WRPT.

2 11 2020
countenance

This gets both the past and the future wrong:

(1) It gets the past wrong, by trying to claim that the Official Republican Party, post-McCain/Romney, let the “tea party” take over the party. In reality, it tried to push the party further to the left, (remember the Romney autopsy calling for more open borders?), the biggest thing that stopped it was Trump (to an extent). That, and by the time of the Romney autopsy, the IRS was ruining the TPM on behalf of the Obama White House and the Republican establishment.

(2) It also gets the future wrong. While there may be noise at the party’s grass roots about how the AOC/Squad types will do battle with the dying establishmentarian types, the actual insider party bosses are actually going to try to figure out how to make the party, both within internal party politics and elections, and in general versus Republicans, less dependent on the black vote. Because, if you remember, black voters and black voters only handed the nomination to Hillary in 2016 and Biden this year. I think for quite a few years, the Democrat brain trust has been trying to find a way to squirm out of dependency of the black vote.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
countenance

Reminds me, last week, I saw in The Federalist a complaint about the Democrat primary and caucus process earlier this year not being able to snuff out Biden and all his problems.

I know that people have both short memories and don’t allow themselves to think about how political correctness makes us more oblivious and stupid.

If you remember the American news cycle pre-Covid, and you’re red-pilled enough to allow yourself to think transgressively, then you’ll remember this:

SJW wokescolds in the media were complaining that the disproportionately white Bernie Bros were erasing black bodies and silencing black voices, because black people were heavily for Biden.

So, the reason the Democrats’ internal political process in the current year wasn’t able to expose Biden is because everyone was too scared to lash out at the candidate that black people just happened to favor.

2 11 2020
David In TN

I recall a passage from PJB’s 1975 book; “Conservative Votes, Liberal Victories.” He wrote: “The Democrats are hostage to the blacks.”

This has been true for some 50 years.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
David In TN

“I would have thought that someone or something would have gotten to him by now.”

In 2017 the Belleville, Illinois Nutbar shot several GOP congressmen. He had been in DC for several weeks, living out of his car.

I commented at the time in this space that the Nutbar was hoping to get a shot at Donald Trump but ran out of patience and settled for some Republican politicians. I still believe it.

Win or lose, Trump will still be a target. The Dems had intended to prosecute Trump had he lost in 2016. They’ve been threatening to do so after he loses this time. Biden himself mumbled something along this line recently.

If Trump wins, they’ll just start the “investigation and Impeachment” circus again.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
countenance

Basically, the disconnect between the final model predictions that HR is posting here comes down to how much stock you put in Shy Tory Syndrome. Also noteworthy is that the normies tend to think it’s there while the alts don’t.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

I’m sure there’s something to it, just like the reports of right-wingers trolling pollsters to screw up their numbers. I’m just not sure it’s going to be enough. I’d like to think Edwards is right, but I don’t see PA going for Trump. Like Kirkpatrick said, “I hope I’m wrong.”

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Notsam

Hunter Wallace must be cheap. Probably a poor tipper also.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

Warm weather forecast for Mid-MO tomorrow:

https://www.komu.com/weather/?mode=week&weather_zip=65201

Election Day. Sunny. Highs in the middle to upper 60s.

2 11 2020
countenance

Mostly cloudy and mid-50s tomorrow here in Cologne. Then again, tomorrow in Cologne will be just another day.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

Warm weather might actually help Trump. Some of the proles who weren’t going to vote might go ahead just to get out of the house.

2 11 2020
countenance

On the matter of the vast differences in rally turnouts.

On the one hand, I want to say that it doesn’t matter, because Romney’s rallies in 2012 had significantly bigger turnout that Obama’s.

But, in 2016’s, Trump’s had galaxies more than Hillary’s.

This year, Trump’s have universes more than Biden’s.

So, backing up to 2012, the difference is that at least Obama had some sizeable turnout at rallies.

2 11 2020
Puggg

I’ve been focused on Jefferson Co. and statewide this year.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Trump should win Missouri without a problem. Jefferson County should be far enough out for him to win.

3 11 2020
Puggg

Other things here. Trump won’t be a problem.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Whole State? They put you on a task force?

2 11 2020
2 11 2020
Hard Right

Terrorist Attack in Vienna. American Media Not Interested.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8906871/Shots-fired-near-synagogue-Vienna-police-say-major-operation-underway.html

At least THREE dead and 15 wounded in Austrian rampage: Police hunt for terrorist still on the run after ‘multiple’ gunmen opened fire on revellers during Vienna’s final night before lockdown

3 11 2020
countenance

That’s obviously big news here last night and today. Main doer, shot dead, is a 20-year old, either Albanian or North Macedonian. Incidentally, we passed through North Macedonia on our honeymoon.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Vote Jihadi! Vote Biden! Still no interest from American media. Can’t figure that one out.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

Anglin Predicts Landslide for Trump

https://dailystormer.su/were-looking-at-a-trumpslide/

2 11 2020
David In TN

Just for the fun of it, I read all of the Blogmeister’s entries for November 2012.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

All 107? I should probably skim over them. I was on the road a lot at the time. I probably missed a lot.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

2 11 2020
Hard Right

These bitches are ugly. No wonder they work for the Government.

2 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Meet the Witches Who Are Hexing Trump’s Re-Election

https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-witches-who-are-hexing-trumps-re-election

An anti-Trump super PAC has enlisted witchcraft to doom the president’s chances of a second term.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

She’s from Berlin. InstaHo: https://www.picuki.com/profile/miss.lillian.lux

Cleanse it with fire.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Looks like she’s actually from Portland. Go figure. Visiting Germany or ex-pat. Sells soy candles. Probably a good idea for a stripper.

Wonder if she knows that antifa troon?

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Dammit. Fuckin’ youtube.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Looking good in Florida this morning.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Pennsylvania gain.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Infiltration of Yankee camp successful. In and out. Didn’t even have to wear a mask :)

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

He’s gonna need all of them. There’s no margin for error.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Long lines also reported in Fenton.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

And Sikeston and KC.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Wonder why Anglin didn’t cover this?

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Oh shit. Biden leading in FL. This is not starting out well.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Panhandle closed. Solid red. Looks like Trump will win FL. Leading in GA and NC.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

2% returned in MO. Fox Snooze already called it for Trump. 61-38.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Polls closed in NC. Biden leading.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Looks like Laura Loomer lost.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Biden leading in Texas.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Communists to keep control of House. Up around five seats.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Pink Palmetto Princess wins.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Trump tied up in NC. He might just do it. Leading for now in MI and WI.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Trump leading in PA.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Biden leading in AZ.

Gamblers flipped to Trump. 66% odds. Chinese Yuan tanking.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

NASDAQ Futures up 3.6%.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

3 11 2020
Hard Right

FL finally called for Trump.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

AZ called for Biden. Not good. Trump’s gonna have to win MI.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Betting markets down to 59% Trump.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Ohio just called for Trump.

3 11 2020
Hard Right

Past my bedtime. This shit can wait until tomorrow. Trump can still win.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Apparently no change since last night?

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
countenance

New post, just uploaded within the hour.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Betting markets 75% Biden.

It's your dime, spill it. And also...NO TROLLS ALLOWED~!

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