Running Backwards Faster

4 11 2020

Washington, D.C.

Off the bat: As I start to write this, right around 2 PM Wednesday in Germany, it’s still not called. So I’m going to write this with the assumption that, as the uncalled states go, the current leaders in the uncalled states stay unchanged. I’ll also presume that the projections of Republicans hold the Senate and Democrats hold the House don’t change.

***

As I wrote here two days ago, this was the first American Presidential election cycle in my conscious observant lifetime of these things that I was unable to watch the American prime time vote counting and state-calling, because my new time zone meant that I was asleep.

One of the things that fell out of the design of that is that, because I wasn’t doing what I had in the past, sperg out over percentages, raw votes and numbers, I’m able to get to the big fundamental moral of the story sooner than I would if my sperging would have made me miss the forest for the trees for awhile, which it did in the past.

***

I’ll start with the conclusion:

Both Trump and Biden lost.

It’s just that Trump won because, while Trump ran backwards, Biden ran backwards faster.

***

I’ll conclude with the reasoning:

It’s as easy as the two contradictory overriding themes that various V-Dare writers have been pushing all year (or longer) both being true at the same time, with the fact that one was truer than the other making the ultimate difference, as these two things worked against each other in the conventional red-blue political calculus.

One was the Peter Brimelow and James Kirkpatrick (et al.) worrying that Trump wasn’t as strong with the white vote nationally as he was four years ago. I thought that was all Shy Tory Syndrome. The truth turned out to be in the middle. But it was true enough not only to prevent Trump from expanding the map, but it also meant Wisconsin turned back to blue. And the sort of whites he lost 2020 delta 2016 were I think mostly because he outsourced his early years economic agenda to Javanka and Paul Ryan. What an irony there; Ryan, from Wisconsin, not only couldn’t help Romney carry Wisconsin in 2012, but may have been part of the reason why Wisconsin flipped from red to blue this year.

The other was Steve Sailer, who has for a long time been trying to warn the knucklehead Blue Team that their turning their party over to the black undertow and associated concerns only serves to piss off very important critical decisive marginal voters, especially among non-black non-whites. Hence, Florida.

So, what you have in both factors is Trump running backwards with the Javanka/Ryan economic agenda, but Biden running backwards faster with BLM.

As far as that goes, still want to believe that BLM is that popular? Now there’s were a lot of Shy Tory Syndrome comes in.

***

Other observations:

(1) Like I wrote above, the Shy Tory Syndrome glass turned out to be a glass half full or empty. I was saying it was going to be a big factor, many in our sector thought it wasn’t there at all, but the reality was in the middle. That is also true for what happened yesterday as well: The Electoral College results turned out to be in between realistically optimistic pro-Trump maps and the Blue Team-cheerleading news media. As of right now, the only state changes are Wisconsin and Arizona, both red to blue.

(2) This feels like the photographic negative of 2012. A whole lot of money, hype and screaming, but in the end, the White House and the Senate remain in the same party’s hands, while the House remains in the other party’s hands.

(3) I don’t think Covid had a statistically significant effect, either in terms of people blaming Trump or Biden, or reducing turnout.

(4) As far as the Summer of Floyd, that also turned out to split the difference, and cause both to lose. Really, Trump was betting on the De Gaulle 1968 scenario. His team had the right era, but the wrong continent. A better analogy is Detroit 1967 — There, the three elected politicians with direct executive authority to stop it didn’t want to do so, because they feared that it would somehow benefit the other two, and the three of them had an intense three-way hatred of each other for varying reasons. The JFK protege Irish Catholic Detroit Mayor, Jerome Cavanaugh, the moderate Republican Governor, George Romney, (there’s that name again), and of course LBJ. LBJ and Cavanaugh hated each other for the same reasons LBJ and JFK hated each other. And at the time, Romney was considered a strong front runner to win the Republican nomination in 1968 and challenge LBJ, so that explains their beef. Then there were the internal Michigan and Detroit reasons behind the Romney-Cavanaugh feud. Anyway, neither one of the three would pull the trigger, and this let the riots fester. And, as it turned out, neither one of them would ever win another election in their lives ever again.

Politically speaking, bouncing off of riots is playing with fire, pun intended.

So I think the Summer of Floyd hurt both Trump and Biden, because Trump came off as weak and politically vindictive by not using Federal resources to stop it, and Biden was seen as the head of a political campaign that was seeking to benefit from the violence. Like I wrote above, it hurt Biden more than Trump in the long run, because of the marginal constituencies that blamed Biden more than Trump. Or, to put it another way, once you go black…

Too, three of the last four biennial election cycles have been such that black undertow activism has hurt the Blue Team.

(5) Now, can Official America FINALLY come around to what I’ve known for seven and a half years, that online and social media don’t matter that much?

***

Now, both parties are going to have to do a lot of soul searching. There will be a lot made publicly about the Squad vs Establishment food fight in the Blue Team, but, the truth of the matter is that their brain trust is going to have to figure out how to make their team less dependent on black voters, both in the primary and caucus season, and in November. Over at Team Red, not only do they have to figure out honestly why they gave back some of the Great Lakes 2016 delta 2012 whites, (and I already provided the answer), but they’re going to have to find a way to thread the needle to get back and hold onto and keep those WCW and UMC suburban whites, especially women. That latter group I think was mostly responsible for Arizona. (And, ironically, a woman getting bounced out of the Senate.)

***

Now, if you’ll pardon me, I’ve got a whole life to get back to. Now that it’s November, I can now officially say that, next month, if all goes well, I’ll be a father, and thus I’ll finally have everything in life that I could have wanted and reasonably attained, especially remarkable because I would have been crazy to think that this was ever attainable as late as April 2018. I’ll also add that I’m doing No Nut November this month, for the best of reasons. Then again, I’ve been doing the No Nut thing for awhile, and it’s very likely going to be well past November that I’m going to keep on doing it.


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46 responses

4 11 2020
countenance

The attitude in Official Germany through the day today has been that they’re scared for much the same reason that a 30-year old living in his parents’ basement is worried that his father is about to kick him out of the house, and he’ll have to fend for himself.

4 11 2020
countenance

Sailer, today, compares Trump to George Steinbrenner.

https://www.takimag.com/article/the-trump-review/

4 11 2020
countenance

Looking at Missouri only results.

All the Republicans statewide won very easily. Curiously, though, the downballots won by slightly larger margins than Trump did. That’s a reversal from four years ago, when Trump won big and most of the downballot Republicans won much more narrowly.

But it means that Republicans have strung together consecutive terms in the Governor’s Mansion for the first time since Ashcroft (the elder, as the younger of course won again as SOS). Democrats were five-for-six there between 1992 and 2016, the only Republican that won was the one I thought had absolutely no shot when he did.

I also see two statewide ballot measures, Amendment 1, which lost narrowly, and Amendment 3, which won narrowly. Anyone want to fill me in before I spend time looking them up?

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Amendment 1 was term limits on lt gov, ag, sos, etc. I voted yes.

Amendment 3 was on who does redistricting. Wish I’d researched that one. There was a lot in it. I voted yes because I didn’t trust the idea of a “nonpartisan” Director of Demographics deciding.

4 11 2020
countenance

1: Wouldn’t have cared much either way

3: I had to look that up. It was going back to politically based redistricting (getting rid of the “non-partisan” bullshit) in exchange for some token decreases in lobbyist gifts. There’s another myth that should have died after 2018 that just won’t die, that gerrymandering matters that much.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Leftoids who fled to Arizona after fucking up California have now fucked up Arizona.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

DC voters approve decriminalizing ‘magic mushrooms,’ other psychedelics

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/dc-voters-approve-decriminalizing-magic-mushrooms-other-psychedelics

4 11 2020
countenance

To match the Federal government’s magic mushroom budget discipline over the past many decades.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Sarah Timothy McBride elected as first tranny state senator

https://19thnews.org/2020/11/sarah-mcbride-elected-first-openly-transgender-state-senator/

Through working on Beau Biden’s reelection campaign in 2010, McBride became friends with former Vice President Joe Biden. The two have remained in touch.

Did Biden sniff his hair?

4 11 2020
Alex the Goon

Too old. “I wouldn’t sniff xer hair with your nose.”

4 11 2020
countenance

OTOH, if things get hot in the United States, then I have to say it right away before someone asks:

No, I don’t have space. Frau. and I just moved into a larger apartment, but “large” is a relative term here. It’ll be nice and snug for the two of us and our soon-to-arrive twin sons.

4 11 2020
countenance

Gossip among the normiecons is that Fox News was so bad with last night’s coverage that they found F’n CNN more palatable.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

I had Fox running in my browser. I didn’t think their coverage was all that bad. The complaints were about early calls in VA and AZ. Bret Baier did grill the decision desk guy several times.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
countenance

She used to call herself Roaming Millennial.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Didn’t know who she was. Just saw it somewhere on Right-Wing Twitter.

FWIW, Normiecons seem to be more upset about all of this than our sector.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
countenance

Wild card being the military.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

No coup. The military is yet another group of supporters that Trump managed to piss off.

4 11 2020
countenance

Proof that WM still matter the most:

4 11 2020
Alex the Goon

Over at Team Red, not only do they have to figure out honestly why they gave back some of the Great Lakes 2016 delta 2012 whites
Take your pick:
* Lowest black unemployment evar!!!
* Lowest hispanic unemployment evar!!!
* Most black prisoners pardoned evar!!!
Can’t MAGA without Americans.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
countenance

Today, it’s more like who gets to interpret the election results.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

We already know how this is going to work. Niggers control Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. If they don’t already have the votes, they’ll “find” them somewhere. They “found” 138,000 in Michigan this morning.

If you question the numbers, you’re a racist.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
countenance

Get ready for more “are straight black men the white people of black people” clickbait.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Looks like Fox just called Wisconsin for Biden.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

The Dow is on pace for its strongest post–Election Day rally in 120 years

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-on-pace-for-its-best-post-election-day-rally-in-120-years-11604510934

S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite looking at their best day-after-election gains on record

4 11 2020
Hard Right

4 11 2020
Hard Right

Seeing reports that the 138,000 in Michigan was a typo which has since been fixed.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/rumor-alert-biden-michigan-votes/

More specifically, the error seems to stem from a typo regarding the vote count in Shiawassee County. The data should have stated that 15,371 votes had been counted in that county, not “153,710.” The error has since been corrected.

4 11 2020
Hard Right

WI called and MI doesn’t look good. Looks like Creepy Joe “won”

Welcome to Zimbabwe.

5 11 2020
countenance

I think here’s the more likely scare scenario:

No clear outcome before the electors have to be sent to the EC voting, meaning nothing is legally/constitutionally decided. Trump’s term ends on January 20, with no legal replacement. Presidency will default to the Speaker of the House, and because Democrats held the House, and the new House convenes in early January, Nancy Pelosi will remain speaker. But, then, Republicans file a constitutional challenge to the Presidential Succession Act.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

Won’t get that far. Courts are controlled by Leftists. Military won’t support him. He’s denounced the only group that might have fought for him. He’s toast.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

5 11 2020
Hard Right

Gonna have to brush up on my constitutional law. Can governors veto the choice of electors by state legislatures?

If the EC can’t decide, the vote goes to the House. When would that occur?

The House votes by state delegation meaning that there are only 50 votes. Which party controls the most delegations?

5 11 2020
Hard Right

Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 doesn’t say anything about governors:

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

Republicans do control both Houses in MI, PA, and WI.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

Looks like the new Congress seated on Jan 3 would decide. Congress counts the votes on Jan 6. If there is no majority, the House decides. The Republicans control 26 state delegations in the current Congress.

5 11 2020
countenance

You must have missed my new post from a few hours ago.

5 11 2020
countenance

AZ might because of the whole John McCain thing.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

If Trump could somehow manage to win in AZ…

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/latest-batch-trump-gets-share-votes-he-would-need-reclaim-arizona-next-rounds-present-challenges/6169183002/

Also seeing reports that the State of Michigan’s own numbers have Trump leading even though it’s been “called”

Trump could also theoretically win in Nevada.

5 11 2020
Hard Right

5 11 2020
Hard Right

5 11 2020
Hard Right

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