Why Trump Won’t Run In 2024

1 03 2021

West Palm Beach, Florida

Because I’ve seen the Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss memorial and monument in Braunschweig, twice.  Because, as those of you who got the birth announcement for my twin sons know, I may be the only person on Earth who can work the term “Gaussian” in to a birth announcement, in two languages.

If it’s not unethical for you to do so, and if you can find a book that’s laying numbers on Y/N of Trump even mounting a campaign in 2024, spend some money on a no ticket.

Here’s why:

In 2024, Trump will be 78 years old. Now, 78 might only be four more than 74 in terms of arithmetic. But in Gaussian terms, 78 is way way way more than 74. Which is to say, when people get a certain age, especially overweight men, each additional year in terms of either living at all or being viable and lively becomes all the less statistically likely than the last. Remember, Trump is known for high energy, doing four rallies per day with travel. At some point pretty soon, he’ll be physically unable to do that, and I think it will hit before 2024. Either age will naturally do what it does, or he’ll have a major medical event. That’s not even counting the possibility that he won’t even be alive.

Recall that another 78-year old ran for President in 2020, and barely left his basement while doing so.

Another factor, besides the medical and physical issues, is that the hypothetical second Trump term would be when he’s between 78 and 82 years of age. As hard of a statistical slog as it is to go from 74 to 78, it will be all the more difficult to go from 78 to 82. And, considering all he went through in the first term, he may well decide that, combining everything, his likely physical decline, and the fact that he would officially become an octogenarian during the term, he doesn’t want to go through all that again.

Father Time is undefeated.  He might take a long time to defeat some of his opponents, but he will win.

This is somewhat analogous to the way another President decided to punt on seeking another term.  So the story goes, in early 1968, LBJ asked the best doctors and actuaries in the country to give him his most likely age of death, and they told him 64.  At that time, he was already 59, going to turn 60 that August.  So that’s why, nine years to the day before I was born, he announced he wasn’t seeking another term.  And as it turned out, all those experts were dead right (no pun intended) about that 64 thing.



6 responses

1 03 2021
David In TN

I’ve been thinking for some time that Trump needs to leave the scene. He’s done all he could do.

I noted a few years ago that Donald Trump talks too much, thinks out loud, makes unforced errors, and sometimes says stupid things into an open microphone. For example, when Jeffrey Epstein’s partner in crime was arrested during the 2020 campaign, Trump blurted out “I wish her well.”

BTW for the most part Trump governed as a garden variety Republican. His first two years he turned the agenda over to Paul Ryan, which resulted in the loss of the House.

The Big Rally (at best) would change absolutely nothing. It was inevitable leftist provocateurs would cause a “violence broke out” scenario one way or another. And no matter what the MSM, Opinion Makers, etc would blame whatever happened, no matter what, on Trump and supporters. The MSM and company would propagate lie after lie after lie.

And Trump would have to leave the White House in two weeks anyway.

We can thank him for his contribution, but Donald Trump should retire from politics for his own good and the general good.

1 03 2021
Hard Right

I agree. I watched his speech at CPAC yesterday. He’s full of shit. He’s not running. He’s only implying that he might just to fuck with the media.

There is one thing useful he could do. He could help primary some of the cucks in Congress.

1 03 2021

I wrote this post before I listened to his CPAC speech, because I had to turn in early even for my normal routine last night, to get enough sleep, in lieu of the predictable interruptions these days. I knew I’d have a long day today that would involve four hours of driving among other things. So I knew I wouldn’t be able to watch it live.

I listened in the car today. The way I figured with Trump’s previous CPAC speeches, it would have gotten me at least to Frankfurt. Thankfully, it wasn’t that long. But it was boilerplate Trump, so meh.

If he’s in physical shape in mid-2023, he’ll run. I just happen to think that he won’t be, that Father Time is going to do his thing between now and then. I’m so confident that I’d bet on it if it was ethical for me to do so.

1 03 2021
Alex the Goon

He doesn’t have to be in physical shape. Precedent has been set that you can be 78, have dementia, never leave your wife’s basement, and still “win”.
I don’t see how he can walk away from (a) being the Center of the Universe Attention Whore, and (b) raking in $hitloads of cash from donors and the red Miss Me Yet hat sales. I could see him starting a Trump Cruise line to milk that grift titty too.

2 03 2021

He sorta needs big events and big crowds. If the old bones won’t let him do that, he won’t see the point.

4 03 2021
Hard Right

YouTube Deletes All Copies of President Trump’s CPAC Speech, Suspends RSBN for Two Weeks


YouTube took down videos from mainstream outlets including the U.K. Independent which had over one million views as well as Fox, Fox Business, ABC News and the U.K. Sun. A search of YouTube that earlier this week showed several channels with archived live streams of the speech now shows all archived live streams have been taken down.

It's your dime, spill it. And also...NO TROLLS ALLOWED~!

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