Sunday in S-A

8 06 2021


A few of you, who must have seen out of the corner of your eyes both here and more so on my social posts that I was in Magdeburg, wanted to know my assessment. I’ll just cut-and-paste my Minds posts, even though it will be repetitive in a few stretches, and with added links for context.

Sunday afternoon:

This will probably be my only social post this evening, and my only contribution to the matter before all results are in plus the voter-shifting graph (Wählerwanderung, I call it the twisted ribbon).

If the CDU ekes out first place tonight, it will ONLY be because of a repeat of the tactics in neighboring Saxony and Brandenburg in September 2019 — Other parties’ voters strategically fell behind the only party that had a chance to get more votes than the AfD (SPD in Bran., CDU in Sax.), in order to deny the AfD the moral victory of finishing in first. Though the German and international media coverage then, as I think it would be tomorrow, would be to treat the day as a de facto AfD win.

However, it’s a tactic that cannot last, because as time goes on, the yellow doggers (“Besenstiel” trans. “broomsticks” in German political parlance) for the old parties are themselves old, and more of them will be shifting toward the other side of the life divide over time. Also, it’s a tactic that can’t really be replicated for the Federal elections in September, because the kind of people who would strategically abandon their own preferred party for the “whoever could beat the AfD” won’t be doing that WRT Federal voting, as they want their party to be as strong as possible in the next Bundestag.

Of course, if Team Blue finishes in first, all this will be moot.

All this will make me have to make last minute decisions on my set.

Earlier this afternoon:

I wrote here on Sunday afternoon that the only thing that would prevent Team Blue from finishing in first place was a repeat of the tactical voting scam that happened in neighboring Saxony and neighboring Brandenburg in September 2019. People who didn’t want the AfD to have the moral satisfaction of finishing in first place temporarily abandoned their own preferred party to vote for the known “strongest other than the AfD” party (The SPD in Bran., the CDU in Sax.). In S-A this year, that is the CDU.

I also wrote that the problems with that tactic are that: (1) It’s unsustainable, because the elderly faithful voters that mean that the CDU or SPD have the staying power they do so that they can be used as anti-AfD tactical voting foils, will eventually start dying, thereby lowering those parties’ baseline percentages, and that (2) They won’t and in fact can’t run that tactic in the much higher stakes Bundestag elections, because they will want their own preferred parties to get as many votes and therefore as many seats as possible.

What happened in S-A is that this tactic worked too well. So much so that the SPD and Die Linke “lost” big ground, and the Greens, who are supposed to be growing like weeds (pun intended), barely grew, and at one point were threatened by finishing under 5% and therefore not getting any seats. Back in Sept. 2019, the media had a sober take, treating the day as de facto AfD wins, and openly warning the numerically victorious SPD in Bran. and CDU in Sax. that their “victories” were paper tigers.

After Sunday, there has not been that level of media and public political sobriety. The CDU and Union in general feels like it’s got the shot in the arm it desperately needed heading into September, (when in reality, we know why it isn’t), and the left parties think they have to lick their wounds (again, when we all know why it’s not actually bad news).

Strangely though, there is not any verve on the part of the German media and political establishment to gloat about the AfD not doing as well as it was thought they would (and I’ll get to that in a minute). The AfD’s percentage take slightly declined compared to five years ago, even though its raw vote total increased, owning to greater overall turnout and the rush of tactical anti-AfD voters. Plus a bunch of old people who rewarded the perceived authority of the CDU because they’re still scared of Covid. Like I said, people who won’t be around that much longer, and an issue that is hopefully only months away from being totally forgotten.

Instead, the official German media and political culture are kinda sorta in a way treating Sunday as something of an AfD win, once again, though not as obviously as they did two years ago. One of the main reasons is that the AfD finished in first place among voters under 45, and the lower you go in age, the better it did. Though you have to remember my axiom that any politician or party who is banking on young (U-30) voters is already writing his/its own concession speech. But it’s an actual worrisome sign for the Greens, who are supposed to be cleaning up among U-30. And it portends the mid-term future.

And that is what has Official Germany scared in the S-A aftermath. They’re already screaming about needing more and better education, even though these people have totally controlled German education for as long as most people alive in this country have been living. If all their brainwashing hasn’t prevented the AfD from being the preferred party going way from under-45 in the East, then even they have to realize that a little more brainwashing isn’t going to change that.

Also, a new fashionable phrase, Diktatursozialisation (“dictatorship socialization”) has been popping up in the past two weeks, as a coping mechanism for Official Germany to explain all this. Meaning that the reason young-ish eastern Germans support the AfD is that communist East Germany brainwashed them. (?????) Even some of Official Germany’s own official talking heads have been picking that apart, without patriotic help. If that’s the case, then such brainwashing should have redounded to the benefit of Die Linke, the SED remnant still in existence today. People under 30 weren’t even alive when the DDR existed, anyway. And then they have to explain Le Pen/RN next door — What [past] “dictatorship” socialized the young-ish French to support her/it [today]? Mitterand? Chirac?

To sum it up, Official Germany has seen that the AfD is here to stay, and, once the old people who are yellow doggers (“Besenstiel” trans: “Broomsticks” in political German idiom) for the old parties start dying in large numbers, Team Blue will start getting yuge bigly percentages and frequent first place finishes, and will one day in the near-mid term future have the run of the joint in the East, and of course the aroma from the BBQ happening East will spread West.

One more thing: I now am of the serious opinion based on observation and implication that the pollsters deliberately fibbed down the CDU’s percentages and fibbed up the AfD’s in the immediate pre-election polls, knowing what they knew would happen, precisely to give grounds to manufacture a post-election narrative of “zomg disappointment for the AfD they’re falling off lol,” and at the same time use those fake polls as a clarion call to get the anti-AfD tactical voters out in force. The second part happened, but mysteriously, not the first part.

Within the hour:

One other loose end from Sunday is that it’s the absolute end of the Meuthen vs Höcke schism within Team Blue, with a clear winner.

Remember, Meuthen/-ism had the run of the joint down in BW and RP in March, and wound up losing ground, both in percentage and raw terms. For his part, Höcke is already bragging about it in a slick roundabout way, stating that (trans and pph): “East is going to move West.”

And also, we had direct side by side comparisons right here in NRW back in September’s local election cycle, and Höcke/-ism showed much stronger gains than Meuthen/-ism.

This part I’ve hinted around here and elsewhere in the very recent past.



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