It Took Seven Years

16 05 2017

Dallas

I predicted.  Seven years ago.

Finally, it’s coming true.

Long time coming, but now we can commence the brick shitting process inside a certain building just northeast of the Dallas High Five.

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Behold the Power of Blogmeister

20 04 2017

San Francisco

Me, May 26, 2015:

I happen to think the left’s real silent goal with higher urban-specific minimum wages is to drive NAMs out of cities, because NAMs tend to low wage jobs whose wages are less than the proposed or implemented urban minimum wages.

Me, July 23, 2015:

A better way of saying that is that if the urban minimum wage is higher than the wage equilibrium for fast feeders, then the fast feeders can’t operate in the urban area.  If the fast feeders aren’t there, the NAMs that work there and the NAMs that eat there suddenly don’t think the urban area is such a dope place to beez, fo’ real, mo shizzle.  So they leave the cities, using their Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Section 8 voucher, plant themselves in a suburban apartment complex close to their 365BellCurve salt licks.  They’re lovin’ it.

American Interest, yesterday:

Local minimum wage hikes cause restaurants to leave or shut down and deter new ones from entering, according to a new Harvard Business School study of the San Francisco Bay Area restaurant industry that contradicts the orthodox liberal view that steeply raising the cost of unskilled labor will not affect jobs or hiring.

More interesting, though, are the study’s findings about which restaurants are forced to leave by the higher wage floors. The authors compared rates of departure of restaurants across different Yelp ratings, and found that the policy hit low and mid-quality restaurants much harder than top-tier restaurants. “Our point estimates suggest that a $1 increase in the minimum wage leads to an approximate 14 percent increase in the likelihood of exit for the median 3.5-star restaurant but the impact falls to zero for five-star restaurants.”

Not quite total vindication, but close enough for government work.

The only difference is that AI author thinks that this is an accident and thinks that min-wage advocates would think it a bug, while I think it is deliberate and by design, that the policy architects both knew this and wanted this, and they think it a feature.





Blogmeister Echo Syndrome

5 07 2016

Washington, D.C. and Roanoke, Virginia

Me, December 17, 2015:

DEINCARCERATION, OR IS IT?

Too many blacks in Federal prison doing excessively long sentences for relatively trivial drug crimes, because Black Lives Matter, Obama rides to the rescue with commutations.

However, if you’ve been paying close attention to local crime blotters for about the last five years, you’ll notice that, especially in stories about what would ordinarily be thought of as garden variety black street crime, that charges are being brought and dispensed in Federal court, not state court, resulting in Federal prison sentences.  U.S. Attorneys are getting more and more creative in finding hooks to bring ordinary black street crime into Federal jurisdiction, for several reasons:  One, they get them out of state courts, and keep them out of already overcrowded state prisons.  Two, Federal courts mean Federal juries meaning a wide geographical pool to pick jurors, meaning white juries, in contrast to a state jury in the relevant jurisdiction, which is bound to be way blacker — For instance, a state trial in St. Louis City encompasses the 22nd circuit, which is only the “county” of St. Louis City, and any jury in the 22nd will be heavily black; meanwhile, a Federal trial in St. Louis will have jurors that come from anywhere in the Federal trial level circuit for eastern Missouri, meaning white jurors.  Black jurors means nullification for black defendants.  Three, Federal cases often don’t get to a jury because they’re easy to prove and easy plea bargain fodder conspiracy or process crimes.

An armed robbery of a business in state court would be prosecuted as just that, armed robbery, or however it is termed per your state’s law.  The method that U.S. Attorneys are using to bring an armed robbery of a business into Federal court is the Hobbs Act, which was enacted with the intent of keeping labor union vs management disputes above board.  However, because it reads, “Whoever in any way or degree obstructs, delays, or affects [interstate] commerce or the movement of any article or commodity in commerce, by robbery or extortion or attempts or conspires so to do, or commits or threatens physical violence to any person or property in furtherance of a plan or purpose to do anything in violation of this section shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both,” then if N’Deshawntavious jacks a liquor store along Natural Bridge on the North Side, and the liquor store acquires bottles of liquor from across state lines, and you know all liquor stores do that, then N’Deshawntavious is obstructing interstate commerce by robbery, meaning the Feds are going to try him on 10th and Pine for Hobbs Act, not the state trying him on Tucker and Market for armed robbery.  The Feds will cage him for 20 years, instead of Missouri caging him for 10 years.  Here’s a hint:  Do a Google News Search of “Hobbs Act” and see how many stories you get that involve garden variety armed robberies.

So, how do we reconcile all this talk about deincarceration and the trend of shoving more ghetto blacks into Federal prison?

The answer is yes.

Deincarceration is about getting middle aged men who are in for long bids other than murder out of Federal prison because they’re middle age and not quite as dangerous as they were when they were younger, because middle age, because the way of all flesh.  And, you get ’em out of prison before they start developing health problems that prison infirmaries are ill equipped to treat, again because middle age/the way of all flesh.  You get them out so you can get a whole new fresh crop of young N’Deshawntaviouses into those cells.

A few weeks ago, in the last few days of the ’15-’16 SCOTUS term, they handed down this decision.  I totally missed this news, but a reader, cognizant of my theory, e-mailed me this story this afternoon.

Other people are finally figuring out what I did last year, as you can read.  That is, all this talk about deincarceration and overincarceration is bullshit if at the same time the Feds are getting increasingly creative to find ways to ship ordinary street crime into Federal court.

Ahead of the curve, honey bunch.  Paying attention and noticing things.

Victory lap.





Equal Pay Day

12 04 2016

USA

Blogmeister Echo Syndrome is more like it.

Me, October 25, 2014:

The gender pay gap, which, controlling for everything, does not exist.  The only reason there is a gender pay gap without controlling for any variables is that women tend to have careers that have lower wage-salary equilibria than men.  Want to know what this is all a run-up to?  It’s all political skid-greasing for a scheme called comparable worth.

Boston Globe, today:

On Equal Pay Day: The state of the gender wage gap in Massachusetts

(snip)

Earlier this year, the Massachusetts state Senate unanimously passed a pay equity bill prohibiting employers from seeking job candidates’ salary histories and they established a definition for “comparable work” to ensure that similar jobs have more equal pay.

Me, also on October 25, 2014:

At the beginning of last year, we found out that, while the national overall gender pay gap is 77 cents, the gap between black women and white men is 64 cents. Therefore, a lot of the gender pay gap is really a disguised white-black race gap. In other words, compare white men to white women and black men to black women, and the intraracial gender pay gaps would be a lot more narrow.

WaPo, today:

Sure, Equal Pay Day is about what’s in women’s paychecks. It’s also about fairness.

(snip)

Women earn only 79 percent of what men make in comparable jobs. And the numbers are more striking when you consider that African American women make only 60 cents and Latinas make only 55 cents compared to white men.

***

 





Like Looking in a Mirror

2 04 2016

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

Me, describing my generation, back on October 29:

Ours is the last generation of people that has and will have any conscious memory of a pre-Internet world, a pre-ubiquitously connected world, a world where phone calls between cities cost extra and were metered by the minute, and of the Soviet Union as an empire that displayed a threatening posture.  We did incubate the first wave of the Internet era, the first wave of the Dot-Com boom.  Otherwise, we’ll be telling our grandchildren horror stories about what it was like to look up a topic before Wikipedia.

Blogmeister Echo Syndrome. It’s almost like reading my autobiography, right down to the jot and tittle of being suckered into joining a CD club; I still have almost all of those CDs to this day, but discovered quickly that, per unit cost, the CD clubs (and I presume before then, the cassette clubs and the record clubs, an episode of the last season of Leave It To Beaver had Beaver joining a record club, and that was in 1962-63), were not much less expensive than just buying them at the CD/music/record store, another artifact our generation is the last to have experienced.

Her point that we in the latter part of Generation X were/are uniquely positioned as accidents of the years of our births in that we’re split halfway between the old and the new worlds and can see the advantages and disadvantages of both sides is a point I breezed by, but should have realized was really profound.

ICYMI, library index cards is one way we looked up a topic before Wikipedia.

Speaking of another generation, you’ll notice I had this to say in that same post:

They are currently at their peak of power and control over real institutions.  We are indeed living in the Peak Boomer Era.  Forget about Peak Oil, the real problem is Peak Boomer.  Since they are exercising power unchecked, they are creating precisely the world that both their critics and apologists of both older and younger generations predicted they would.

QED.





Blogmeister Echo Syndrome

23 01 2016

Downtown; Washington, D.C.

Dotson to D.C. to moap about not enough black cops and also about guns.

Blogmeister Echo Syndrome:

“We are $9000 behind in starting salary compared to Saint Louis County. If you are a young person looking for a career in law enforcement, it’s a math problem.  You go to where it pays more. We have to increase our salaries,” he says.

And remember, Ferguson pays even less than St. Louis City.

You’ll also notice the SLPD is 36% black, in a 49% black city.  When you think of it, when you factor in age (minimum SLPD age is 21, while the age distribution curve for blacks skews younger compared to whites), and for the fact that felons can’t be cops, there probably is no real disparity between SLPD black-white officer demographics and the otherwise eligible general population.





Blogmeister Echo Syndrome

4 12 2015

Manhattan

Breitbart:

Trump’s Rise Without Traditional Campaign Spending ‘Existential Threat’ to ‘Political Election Industry’

Which snarky blogger you all know and love has been saying that all summer and fall?

Donald Trump’s ability to remain the undisputed GOP frontrunner in December even though he has hardly spent any money on traditional television advertising that enriches consultants in the permanent political class is why he represents an “existential threat” to the established political order. In the newest CNN/ORC poll that was released Friday, Trump has a commanding 20-point lead, which reportedly marks “Trump’s highest support and widest lead since he first announced his candidacy.”

Trump may indeed be establishing a blueprint that other candidates could follow in the future to put many in the stale permanent political class—many of whom are career mercenaries who care more about using politics to line their pockets than the interests of the candidates they purportedly support—out of business. He even mocked Jeb Bush this week on the campaign trail in Georgia for wasting millions on television ads that have not helped the former Florida governor’s flailing poll numbers and campaign.

Here’s where I slightly differ, even though I think this particular analysis is valid.  This analysis is that Trump is an existential threat to the barnacle class because of structural and operational factors.  I think, mainly because some snarky blogger has been writing all summer and fall, that the real threat that Trump represents to the barnacles is political and substantive, that he’s so far winning and winning the kinds of groups the barnacles all say that Republicans need more of, all the while doing almost the polar opposite of what the barnacles tell Republican Presidential candidates what they have to do and what they absolutely must not do.  Plain words, Trump is showing up the barnacles for the deceitful irrelevant frauds and hustlers that are riding herd for billionaires and megacorporations that I’ve obviously known for more than three years and viscerally figured long before that that they are.

But this doesn’t mean that both aren’t correct, that Trump is showing up the barnacles both functionally and substantively.  We do know that the barnacles fear Trump for much the same reason that carriage makers and blacksmiths for horses and horse drawn carriages did when they saw the first Model Ts roll off Henry Ford’s assembly line.