Coming Around

14 07 2015

USA

The Cook organization is finally coming around to understanding what Steve Sailer figured out more than two years ago:

Hispanics, not that important, very little political and Electoral College leverage. Blacks, very important, lots of political and Electoral College leverage, in fact, the difference maker in 2012 bar none.

However, I don’t think that blacks and the decisive role they play are “overlooked.”  I think a whole lot of important people have known this all along.  But it gave the Republican oriented donor class and the consultants who ride herd for them the opportunity to concoct a self-serving political myth that Hispanic voters are ultra-crucial and ultra-important, they want amnesty and open borders, and the way to win elections is to give the Republican donors the amnesty and open borders they want.

If blacks and their leverage weren’t well understood, the names Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown would have never become nationally known, and you’d be hearing nothing about Confederate flags today.





Citizen United

14 04 2015

Monticello, Iowa

***

huffpohrc

***

2012spend

***

The question above of why HRC needs $2.5 billion or even $2.5 thousand is a very good one.  First off, she already has the media on her side, NBC most of all, because they hired Chelsea Clinton in order to buy access to Hillary Clinton, and even though the younger Miss Clinton didn’t last long at NBC, Comcast is going to have to protect their investment by making sure HRC wins.  And by eschewing all that money, HRC can lead by example, or at least put on a front like she is.





Give and Take

13 04 2015

Miami

PowerLine, quoting Rubio’s announcement:

Both of my parents were born to poor families in Cuba. After his mother died when he was nine, my father left school to go work. My mother was one of seven girls raised by a disabled father who struggled to provide for his family.

When they were young, my parents had big dreams for themselves. But because they were not born into wealth or power, their future was destined to be defined by their past. So in 1956 they came here, to the one place on earth where the aspirations of people like them could be more than just dreams.

My father became a bartender. My mother a cashier, a maid and a Kmart stock clerk. They never made it big. But they were successful. Two immigrants with little money or education found stable jobs, owned a home, retired with security and gave all four of their children a life far better than their own.

My parents achieved what came to be known as the American Dream. But now, too many Americans are starting to doubt whether achieving that dream is still possible.

The 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa had one speech after another after another like this.  The speakers, a lot of them non-white, spouted their Horatio Alger stories.  Marco Rubio was one of them, as a matter of fact.  Others like that included New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, and now Congresswoman Mia Love from Utah.

The reason why that convention turned out to be a big flop was that those speeches and those that gave them were appealing to an audience and a class of voters that doesn’t want to work for anything, doesn’t want to pay their dues to be a real success if they ever will be, doesn’t want to climb the ladder slowly and one step at a time.  They want it all, they want it now, and they want it given to them without obligation.  And that’s where Baracka Claus and the Democrats come in.

That’s what tends to happen when you try to be Democrat lite to compete with Democrat classic for the gibsmedat Democrat voter.

Maybe next time they’ll speak to the people that actually do vote for their crummy party or maybe the people who actually might but don’t quite.  Or do I wish for too much?





Needless to Say, I Don’t Agree

7 04 2015

Washington, D.C.

Paul Bedard, in the WE:

Norquist book: IRS assault on Tea Party saved Obama’s presidency

The administration-ordered persecution of Tea Party groups shut down the movement in time to save President Obama’s reelection and starve Republican Mitt Romney of the 4,262,296 votes needed to take the White House, according to an explosive new book from tax foe Grover Norquist.

Okay, now it’s time for that inside-the-box thinking that I’m famous for.

1.  Establishment Republicans were as much of a driving force behind IRSgate was were Democrats-Obama.

2.  The TPM was never hot for Romney.  Even if they were at full strength, they would not have wanted to mobilize in favor of Willard.  Besides, the hundreds of millions of dollars budget Romney campaign had enough money and people to do its own GOTV such that it never needed to rely on the nickel and dime budget TPM groups’ pavement pounding operations.  That the Romney campaign didn’t and couldn’t is its own fault entirely.

3.  The 4,262,296 people who did not vote for Romney who did vote for McCain four years earlier would not have been more likely to vote for Romney even if the TPM was at full strength and all in for Romney.  About two weeks ago, I wrote as a comment in this space:

It all comes down to this: There were around 4 million people who did vote for John McCain in 2008 who did not vote for Mitt Romney in 2012. These are the famous “four million missing Republicans” that lamestream conservative talking heads talk about and go on and on about.

And it is the severe misinterpretation of who they are, where they are, why they are, and why they didn’t vote in 2012, that’s going to drive the Republicans into yet another loss in 2016.

The conventional wisdom among lamer con talking heads is that the four million missing Republicans were lamer cons who gave Mitt Romney a lamer con purity test which he somehow failed, so they stayed home. Therefore, the “solution” is merely to run a more “pure,” more articulate, better credentialed lamer con up the flagpole, and everything will be fine. And that’s why Ted Cruz thinks he can win this whole shooting match.

Except for? Well, everything.

First off, John McCain was even less conservative than Romney, so it’s strange for people doing lamer con litmus tests to think that McCain passed it but Romney didn’t.

Second, Sean Trende already did the difficult leg work (or rather, finger work) and found out who the 4 million missing Republicans are. As it turns out, on a county by county basis, there is a very very strong correlation between the percent of voters in the county that consists of these missing Republicans and the county’s percent vote for Ross Perot in 1992. Meaning the missing “Republicans” aren’t doctrinaire conservatives, not even strong Republicans. They’re working-middle class white independents, once upon a time they were called “Reagan Democrats.” Their non voting means that Romney couldn’t win the Great Lakes states’ white voters by the landslide margins he needed to to overcome the black elderly women deluge. And it should be no surprise now that working-middle class whites in the Great Lakes had no desire to turn out for someone who, if he had never gone into politics, would be a hedge fund multi billionaire by now.

Back to Norquist’s theory:

First, he cited a study on the Tea Party movement that found it pushed up to 5.8 million extra Republican voters to the polls in 2010 when the GOP took control of the House, essentially shutting down Obama’s agenda.

I have no doubt about the veracity of that.  But, “extra Republican voters in 2010” compared to what?  It can’t be compared to 2008, because Prez years have bigger turnouts than midterms.  It has to be 2010 delta 2006, the previous midterm.  And if that’s the case, then of course it would be much easier to motivate Republicans to turn out, because 2006 was the sixth year of a Republican President, and the second midterm of a two-term President is almost always great for the “opposition” party.  While 2010 was the first midterm of what turned out to be a two-term Democrat President.  What I’d like to know, but what only God Himself knows, is how many of those 5.8 million Republicans 10 delta 6 would have voted anyway even if the TPM never existed, that they did just out of pure partisan reaction, and how many were actually a result of TPM pavement pounding.

 

 





Mr. Choom Gang Wants Us to Quit Thinking About Weed

17 03 2015

Washington, D.C.

You’ve got a lot of nerve.

Remember, the whole purpose of Colorado Amendment 64 was to put weed legalization on the same ballot on the same day as the Presidential election in order to swing Colorado to Obama.

Though it probably wouldn’t have mattered anyway.





They Knew Even Then

4 02 2015

Washington, D.C.

Politico:

Axelrod: Romney ‘12 concession call ‘irritated’ Obama

President Barack Obama was not amused by Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential election concession call, according to a new memoir.

In “Believer: My 40 Years in Politics,” former senior Obama adviser David Axelrod writes that the GOP candidate implied on the call that Obama had won because of his popularity in black communities, according to the New York Daily News, which acquired an advance copy of the book.

Obama was “unsmiling during the call, and slightly irritated when it was over,” according to Axelrod.

“‘You really did a great job of getting out the vote in places like Cleveland and Milwaukee,’ in other words, black people. That’s what he thinks this was all about,” Obama said after he hung up with Romney.

And that irritated Obama?  As the Census Bureau data released the next June proved, it was the truth.  In fact, I’m sure Obama had already concluded months before election day that it’s something he and his campaign needed to do.  I guess he’s only mad that Romney noticed it.  In fact, it was half the equation to explain how Obama eked it out:  His campaign did a great job of turning out middle aged and elderly black women (the only two demographics whose 2012 turnout increased over 2008), and the other half was Romney’s inability to run up landslide margins among working/middle class whites in northern swing states.  And that happened partially because of the Obama campaign’s anti-Romney FUD, but most of that was Romney’s own doings.

But the big bombshell here, if you’re paying close attention, is that even on election night, Mitt Romney and his campaign already knew half the answer, that it was high (elderly) black (woman) turnout.  If Romney knew it, then the RINO establishment knew it.  This means that we now know that they knew all along that their peddling of this ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!1 line and “we gotta do amnesty because Mitt lost Hispanics severely” line postmortem was and still is deceitful bullshit.  That is, of course, an example of what I concluded my last post with:  Power creating its own truth.  In the case, the power of the cheap labor open borders lobby.





Do the Jebby

15 12 2014

Washington, D.C.

NYT:

In New Election, Jeb Bush Stakes Out the Middle Ground

WASHINGTON — When former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida quietly visited Senator John McCain in his Capitol Hill office this fall, discussion turned to a subject of increasing interest to Mr. Bush: how to run for president without pandering to the party’s conservative base.

“I just said to him, ‘I think if you look back, despite the far right’s complaints, it is the centrist that wins the nomination,’ ” Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican, said he told Mr. Bush.

In the past few weeks, Mr. Bush has moved toward a run for the White House. His family’s resistance has receded. His advisers are seeking staff. And the former governor is even slimming down, shedding about 15 pounds thanks to frequent swimming and personal training sessions after a knee operation last year.

But before pursuing the presidency, Mr. Bush, 61, is grappling with the central question of whether he can prevail in a grueling primary battle without shifting his positions or altering his persona to satisfy his party’s hard-liners. In conversations with donors, friends and advisers, he is discussing whether he can navigate, and avoid being tripped up by, the conservative Republican base.

Asking President John McCain for advice on how to win?  Great Idea!

Actually, 2008 does provide the template on how Bush can win the nomination while running as a non-conservative, because it’s how McCain did it that year — A whole conga line of conservatives or pseudo-conservatives will get into the race in order to pad their resumes or satisfy their egos.  They’ll split the conservative vote, and the media-favored “moderate” will win almost all of the early primaries and caucuses with 25-30% of the vote, but get all of the delegates from those states because of winner-take-all.  Eventually, the media-favored “moderate” keeps on ekeing out so many wins with laughably puny plurality percentages but gathers such a big delegate lead combined with the media mindshare that opposing him eventually becomes futile, and everyone else either literally drops out or quits campaigning, meaning the media-favored “moderate” will win the later primaries with landslide percentages.

The party’s establishment elites and some longtime advisers to Mr. Bush are urging him to remain steadfast on his positions, especially on immigration, if he runs. They are convinced that Mitt Romney ruined his chance to win in the fall of 2012 by veering too far to the right during the primaries, turning off general election voters as a result.

I can forgive people for not being adept at the relatively obscure political history that happened before they were born, but self-styled political experts should know a lot better about the political history of not even three years ago.  Willard Romney never veered to the right at all.  He never won a single Southern primary or caucus while Gingrich and/or Santorum were viable; in fact, in Alabama and Mississippi, Romney finished in third place behind both.  Romney won the nomination by being the favored Republican candidate of Republican voters in blue states and of Republican voters in blue counties in competitive states.  What he didn’t realize is that blue states and blue counties are blue because they have more blue voters than red voters, so while he could easily win Massachusetts or New Jersey or Wayne County, Michigan or Cuyahoga County, Ohio in the primary season, they were inevitably going to be blue in November because they have way more many Democrat voters than moderate Republican voters.  Meanwhile, Alabama and Mississippi were right there for Romney in November, and while Romney didn’t win Ohio or Michigan in the fall, just about all the Santorum counties in the spring in those states were Romney counties in the fall.

One thing that became perfectly clear in the 2012 aftermath is that Romney’s inability to sell himself to white Southerners in the spring was a very good proxy of the problems he would have in selling himself to non-Southern white working class voters in the fall.








Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 2,450 other followers