Rubbing the Dog’s Nose In His Own Poo

13 11 2018

Washington, D.C.

If you didn’t hate me after yesterday, what you’re about to read in this post will clinch it.

I’ve heard it stated often in our sector that, presuming that the farces known as “elections” as part of the farce known as the “democratic republican system” are desirable things at all, that the franchise should have property and/or income delimiters of some sort.

Those of you who think that are like the dogs in housebreaking training that just shit on the carpet.  And with that, I’m rubbing your noses in your own shit turds by presenting you this article and infographic.

Long and short here is that the same kind of people that were cool with Romney style Republicanism in 2012 but not with Trump style Republicanism in 2016, well to do white (and even some non-white) suburban voters, became even less cool with Trump style Republicanism in 2018, enough to swing control of the House.

Property and/or income delimiters for the franchise would only mean even more power for these kind of people.  And for the ownership, capital and rentier class in general, a group that has too much power already.

Now here’s where I floor you all and make the scant few of you that haven’t started hating my guts yet start doing so:

Just as public policy should put labor and production on an equitable footing with the ownership class, I think the power of the franchise should be inversely commensurate with socioeconomic status.  Instead of taking the franchise away from people that don’t own land, it would be better for our cause and the better Hobson’s Choice that we take the franchise away from people that do.

 

originalequityvsequality

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Scattered Thoughts On Yesterday

7 11 2018

Your Blogmeister’s German Desk

Like I promised, here are my thoughts, none too extensive or detailed as they may be, on what happened yesterday back home.

* Like I said, I was mentally checked out of caring about Claire for revenge or score settling purposes, because I’ve already gotten what I wanted in the long run in a roundabout way.  Even though it cost me a whole lot and took longer than I thought.  Yet and still, I’m surprised Hawley beat her by a comfortable margin.  I would have thought it would have been razor close and could have gone either way at that.  That’s what all the polling I saw from back home suggested.

* Speaking of that, I only need one word to explain why in most of these statewide races, the red team did better than the polls and exit polls suggested they would, the one word explains why enough red team voters were, as the lawyers would say, at some level less than perfectly honest, with the pollsters:

Antifa.

* The Democrats have won the House based on “Republican gerrymandered” Congressional districts.  Remember, the 2011-2021 Congressional district map was largely drawn on Republican favorable terms by state legislatures that were largely Republican based off the 2010 red wave.

Does this mean the Democrats and the left will now realize what even the NYT admitted, that gerrymandering largely doesn’t matter, and now STFU about gerrymandering?

* And speaking of the House, let’s do something I haven’t done in awhile in this space, and fire up the Blogmeister Hot Tub Time Machine.  Let’s all jump in, (no skinny dipping, this ain’t no German spa), and dial the thing back to just about precisely eight years ago, 2010, the aforementioned red wave.

That season’s results were pretty much the photographic negative of this season’s.

Which means that the blue team is about to learn what the red team had to learn the hard way from January 2011 to December 2014 — That having the House and nothing else amounts to, as my grandpa would have said, exactly two things:  Nothing and shit.

The power of the purse?  Obama bullied House Republicans into accepting Continuing Resolutions or otherwise take the political blame for a government shutdown.  Subpoenas?  What’s the punishment for ignoring a Congressional subpoena?  Something that has to be enforced by the men with guns that the President controls.  Impeachment?  Everyone remembers 1998-1999, unless they don’t.  Presidential nominees only need Senate confirmation.

I’m sure Trump realizes all this by now.  I fully expect him to say something something “pen and phone” within the next several months.

* The biggest disappointments from an immigration patriot standpoint from yesterday are Kobach, Brat, Barletta, Corey Stewart.  The danger in those losses is that Trump could start paying more attention to Jared Kushner rather than Stephen Miller on immigration policy.

* Blue team saw Gillum lose in Florida when all the polls thought he’d win, and Abrams lose in Georgia even though that was somewhat expected.  I think the lesson they’ll take from that is to tell Kamala Harris and Cory Booker to sit this one out, read the Riot Act to their identity politics SJW/BLM militants, and run up a pale stale male in 2020.  Notwithstanding my prediction about 2020.

* Illinois Governor:  Not surprised at the outcome, very surprised at the margin.

It means the state will go bankrupt sooner rather than later, and I hope that when they stick their hands out to Trump asking for a bailout, for all of the problems Chicago caused him, I hope he tells Illinois what Gerald Ford told New York City.

Alternatively and in better news, it could reinvigorate the Southern Illinois statehood movement.

* Texas: Abbott won by an easy margin, which means that Cruz’s narrow win has a lot to do with Cruz. Cruz won narrowly this year for the same reason Trump won Texas two years ago by a margin lower than a typical Republican wins the state — Because Trump and Cruz taking potshots at each other when they were the last two standing in the Republican Presidential primaries in 2016 soured each one in the minds’ eyes of devotees of the other in the state, meaning enough Cruz diehards passed on Trump in 2016, while enough Trump diehards passed on Cruz yesterday. Yet and still, both won, in climates where a win is a win no matter what the margin.

* I wrote this as a comment in our favorite doggy’s open thread, but I’ll post it again here for entertainment purposes.

I’ve written here several times that German as a language has a way of mashing up simple words into long compound words whose proper contextual translation has almost nothing to do with the literal translations of the simple words so combined.

Here’s a word that the German media used a lot in the last few days and are using today as they cover the American midterms (shilling for Democrats, of course):

Halbzeitwahlen

Halb = Half

Zeit = Time

Wahlen = Choosing

Okay, so what is “half time choosing?” After the first half, coach sits the starting QB for the second string rookie?

Really, the word means “midterm elections.”

Realizing that there’s really no need for Germans to have such a word for their own political culture, because there are no such things as “midterm elections” per se here or in most countries. Two of which I’ve already experienced, state government elections (Landtag), which almost always occur not during the day of Federal elections, are interpreted as “in between” referenda on the Federal ruling party and Chancellor, and of course what happened in Bavaria and Hesse was bad news for Ang.





What’s the Matter With Kansas?

8 08 2018

Topeka

I followed the Kobach vs Colyer KS-GOV-R primary on Audacious Epigone.  What I did not realize is that, since Trump appointed Samnesty Brownnose to something-something-religious freedom, (which makes me wonder why Trump gave that Kansan a Federal job yet Kris Kobach does not currently have one), it means that he resigned from Governor to go do that, which bumped Jeff Colyer up to Governor.  Meaning Colyer is the incumbent and has the power of incumbency, which in turn partially explains why Kobach didn’t win yesterday in a blowout, which he is accustomed to doing in his statewide races in recent years.

It’s tempting to think the open borders lobby pushed the wind to Colyer’s back, but thanks to the Federal judiciary gutting most non-Federal immigration enforcement, the open borders lobby doesn’t care about state government politics on the immigration issue, and instead goes all-in on Federal races.  So I don’t think that was a factor.  To put it another way, ADM doesn’t care who the Governor of Kansas is, but it does care very much who the Senators from Kansas are.

As it turned out in the boxes, Kobach beat Colyer by all of 191 votes, and while there will be a recount, because of the slim margin, the Kansas Secretary of State will head it.  Guess who that is.





The Lessons of Proposition A

8 08 2018

Jefferson City

Like I wrote last night, I was able to call defeat for Prop A at ten to nine, well before any “credible” media source in the state did, because, at that time, with not much more than 10% of the statewide precincts counted, that universe of already counted voters was 2.3-to-1 Republican-over-Democrat ratio, using total votes cast for any U.S. Senate primary candidate as the proxy, voted against Prop A with 62% of the vote.  So once St. Louis City and County started reporting, it would only push that 62% upward.  Another indicator, if that wasn’t enough, was that heavily and perennially Republican Warren County voted 72% No.

As it turned out, 67% No statewide, and it only won slightly to somewhat in a few mostly southwest Missouri counties, but lost in Greene (Springfield), and only got above 60% in two counties:  McDonald, the southwesternmost county in the state, and Pemiscot, the southeastern most.  There were probably localized reasons why Prop A won big in those places, but it’s also curious that McDonald County and especially a few towns in it, such as Noel, are full of Mexicans and Latinos.

I myself did not vote at all, and, for the record, I’m currently registered to vote at my uncle’s St. Louis City house, not here at the secret rehab hideout, which is at an undisclosed address and place in Monroe County, Illinois.  Once I move, my uncle’s house will remain my “official” residence for bureaucratic and record keeping and (if I’m ever in the mood) absentee voting purposes.  If I would have voted at all yesterday, it would have been on Prop A and only that, except I have established it as a matter of qualified opinion in this space that I think the open shop vs closed shop question doesn’t matter, that the arguments advanced by both sides suffer correlation-causation issues, and that there are many more important and needle-moving factors in the wage-salary equilibrium labor market than the open-closed debate.

In spite of what I think is the ultimate irrelevance of it all, I think last night’s result on A just can’t be so easily glossed over, because it does contain important object lessons.

To cut to the chase:

I think this was, without those who cast the crucial marginal No votes quite understanding this in such sophisticated terms, and without them even quite knowing what they were doing fully, and by “crucial marginal,” I mean a big percentage of faithful Republican voters, (to wit:  Warren County) and most of the new Trump-style Republican-leaning but not -loyal voters, white lower-working-middle classes, many of whom still belong to unions or sympathetic to those who do or wish they were able to (to wit:  Jefferson County), trying to send a message to the political class in general and the Republican one in particular to quit shilling for the capital, ownership and rentier class, the very group of people who don’t need help, and instead, to start implementing policies equitable to labor and production.

Statewide Democrats might be spiking the football this morning, but this was a lesson for them and pointed at them as much as it was anything else.  That party has its own capital vs labor problems, the gentry corporatist neoliberals versus the street level true believers, those politics also showed up in last night’s results here in St. Louis, as you can read in my other posts of today.  And, just as much, Democrat true believer voters wish their own party’s establishment would quit shilling for the capital class, even though the fact that it does is opaquely concealed by the fact that on the organizational and activist level, unions still equal Democrats.

That and I don’t think that Prop A’s result last night has that much relevance to modern day current year conventional two party politics;   To put it another way, however the midterms turn out in St. Louis, Missouri and nationally, that will happen in a lane totally separate from Prop A’s lane.  It’s similar to minimum wage, (and such as it is, I also think that minimum wage is just as economically irrelevant as is open-vs-closed shop in the labor market), we have many situations where the same electorate votes for minimum wage increases bigly and Republicans bigly at the same time, and the fact that Republican politicians are hostile to the concept of a minimum wage does not preclude the bidirectional political contradiction.  There’s a difference between an issue being popular or unpopular on the one hand, and a serious needle-mover on the other.

But, as for me, I’m way more interested in an election coming up on October 14.

Note: I am not clear whether Prop A’s defeat totally negates the state legislature’s newly enacted change from closed shop to open shop and therefore takes Missouri back to close shop on its own, or whether it merely means that open shop as state policy will not be hard wired into the state constitution. I get conflicting answers in my credible research and questioning.





The Lessons of Wesley Bell and Bob McCullough

8 08 2018

Clayton

The biggest political shock around here in a long time, maybe the biggest of my conscious lifetime.

St. Louis County is about to have a Kim Gardner type as Prosecuting Attorney, which means he will do much more attorneying than prosecuting.

To beat all, Wesley Bell is currently an alderman in Ferguson.

I don’t think what happened last night was any more complicated than the fact that McCullough rested on his laurels and thought he’d be in as long as he wanted because he was in for so long.

Bell probably had a really big energetic army of leg work foot soldiers behind him, and I bet he probably also got Soros money, just like Kim Gardner did.

You wonder why all these gadflies and nobodies and people who otherwise have no hope bother running?  Because, sometimes, lightning strikes.  The long time incumbent gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy — That happens, every once in awhile.

It came as close as it has ever to striking last night in MO-1-D, see one of my other posts today, and it did strike last night in this race.

And St. Louis County is about to be all the worse off for it.

Then again, less than a month from now, St. Louis, City or County, won’t be my problem, either for quite some time, or ever again.





The Lessons of Cori Bush

8 08 2018

St. Louis City and North County

Life has a funny way of trolling you.

This morning, the king and queen of the secret rehab hideout had to make a quick run to the grocery store, and in spite of the fact that my going along with them makes the chore more difficult, they wanted me to go with them, just to get out of the house for a short while.  Even though, after Labor Day, I’ll be getting out of their house for a very long while, but I digress.

When I was in the store, one of the songs the store’s intercom played was “Jenny from the Block” by J-Lo.  I jokingly refer to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as “Jenny from the Block,” and I heard it on the day after a local election took place that had her as a subtext.

It was MO-1-D.  Lazy Clay, the 18-year incumbent, who followed his 32-year tenure father in the same district, this year got a Democrat Primary challenge from a black woman named Cori Bush.  She had the endorsement of Jenny from the Block, and she even came to town to speak and rally on her behalf.

I thought Bush had no hope.

And as it predictably turned out, Clay won.

But Bush made it surprisingly close, relative to what Clay is used to winning his own party’s primary for re-election against the usual dorks, dweebs, trolls, gadflies and nobodies.

Turns out Cori Bush really did make a credible and respectable run, and that Jenny from the Block is wielding a rather heavy stick in Democrat Party politics these days.

In the district as a whole, it was Clay 57%, Bush 37%.  But here’s the interesting breakdown:  Bush had a a better result in St. Louis City (all of which is in MO-1), Clay 51% Bush 43%, than she did in the parts of St. Louis County that are in MO-1, Clay 60% Bush 33%.

There several lessons to this that daisy chain together, and prove several of my long standing operating political theories:

(1) The local black political romanticism over the Clay surname is starting to fade.

(2) That Bush did better in the City than the County proves that the black political racial parochialism now tends to North County rather than the City.  When Virvus Jones’s daughter made it razor thin close against Lyda Krewson in Mayor-D in March 2017, mainly because doctrinaire progressives and also the city’s organized activist LGBTQ-BLT-BBQ-LOL wing tended to Jones’s way, I wrote here in reaction that St. Louis City politics had stopped being a purely racial headcount as they were in, say, the 1981-1993 time frame, and have turned into a contest between the neoliberal money power and doctrinaire true believer street progressives, which correlates to race much less intensely.  Bush doing that well in the city also points to the validity of my theory.

(3) I’ve written here often in the past six years that as, older black women start moving on to the next world, the way of all flesh, they will be dying off as the final generation of black people and black voters that have any conscious memory of the civil rights movement and what it was like before it.  Obama could goose them out to the voting booth in 2012 in record turnout rates for their demographic that will never be seen again (hint hint) and already started to fall in 2016, because his campaign and their allied talking heads were able to fill their heads with noise about voter disenfranchisement, the water hoses, the police dogs, Bull Connor.  Once they’re all gone, there will be no black voters around that have any conscious memory of those eras, they were either too young or were not yet born.  Such voters will break more ideologically than purely racially.  Generationally and applied to the society at large, it will be the equivalent of and happen contemporaneously with Baby Boomers aging out of power and control and of life itself, and handing off to Generation X, a handoff which I have predicted here will be rough and rocky and may surprise us in some very good ways in our opinion.  Anyway, I take last night’s result of Clay vs Bush as a leading indicator that all this is starting to happen.

(4) White voters in the city who voted in MO-1-D yesterday I bet broke heavily for Bush, because of the doctrinaire progressive thing.





Last Waltz

8 08 2018

Your Blogmeister’s Secret Hideout

Something just occurred to me last night.

This is my last election day and election night from St. Louis, maybe for awhile, maybe ever.

The next election day for the territory in which I am currently registered to vote, if I want to vote at all, and I didn’t yesterday because there was nothing that mattered to me, I’ll have to vote absentee.

A few analysis posts from the events of last night will follow this one.