What’s the Matter With Kansas?

8 08 2018

Topeka

I followed the Kobach vs Colyer KS-GOV-R primary on Audacious Epigone.  What I did not realize is that, since Trump appointed Samnesty Brownnose to something-something-religious freedom, (which makes me wonder why Trump gave that Kansan a Federal job yet Kris Kobach does not currently have one), it means that he resigned from Governor to go do that, which bumped Jeff Colyer up to Governor.  Meaning Colyer is the incumbent and has the power of incumbency, which in turn partially explains why Kobach didn’t win yesterday in a blowout, which he is accustomed to doing in his statewide races in recent years.

It’s tempting to think the open borders lobby pushed the wind to Colyer’s back, but thanks to the Federal judiciary gutting most non-Federal immigration enforcement, the open borders lobby doesn’t care about state government politics on the immigration issue, and instead goes all-in on Federal races.  So I don’t think that was a factor.  To put it another way, ADM doesn’t care who the Governor of Kansas is, but it does care very much who the Senators from Kansas are.

As it turned out in the boxes, Kobach beat Colyer by all of 191 votes, and while there will be a recount, because of the slim margin, the Kansas Secretary of State will head it.  Guess who that is.

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The Lessons of Proposition A

8 08 2018

Jefferson City

Like I wrote last night, I was able to call defeat for Prop A at ten to nine, well before any “credible” media source in the state did, because, at that time, with not much more than 10% of the statewide precincts counted, that universe of already counted voters was 2.3-to-1 Republican-over-Democrat ratio, using total votes cast for any U.S. Senate primary candidate as the proxy, voted against Prop A with 62% of the vote.  So once St. Louis City and County started reporting, it would only push that 62% upward.  Another indicator, if that wasn’t enough, was that heavily and perennially Republican Warren County voted 72% No.

As it turned out, 67% No statewide, and it only won slightly to somewhat in a few mostly southwest Missouri counties, but lost in Greene (Springfield), and only got above 60% in two counties:  McDonald, the southwesternmost county in the state, and Pemiscot, the southeastern most.  There were probably localized reasons why Prop A won big in those places, but it’s also curious that McDonald County and especially a few towns in it, such as Noel, are full of Mexicans and Latinos.

I myself did not vote at all, and, for the record, I’m currently registered to vote at my uncle’s St. Louis City house, not here at the secret rehab hideout, which is at an undisclosed address and place in Monroe County, Illinois.  Once I move, my uncle’s house will remain my “official” residence for bureaucratic and record keeping and (if I’m ever in the mood) absentee voting purposes.  If I would have voted at all yesterday, it would have been on Prop A and only that, except I have established it as a matter of qualified opinion in this space that I think the open shop vs closed shop question doesn’t matter, that the arguments advanced by both sides suffer correlation-causation issues, and that there are many more important and needle-moving factors in the wage-salary equilibrium labor market than the open-closed debate.

In spite of what I think is the ultimate irrelevance of it all, I think last night’s result on A just can’t be so easily glossed over, because it does contain important object lessons.

To cut to the chase:

I think this was, without those who cast the crucial marginal No votes quite understanding this in such sophisticated terms, and without them even quite knowing what they were doing fully, and by “crucial marginal,” I mean a big percentage of faithful Republican voters, (to wit:  Warren County) and most of the new Trump-style Republican-leaning but not -loyal voters, white lower-working-middle classes, many of whom still belong to unions or sympathetic to those who do or wish they were able to (to wit:  Jefferson County), trying to send a message to the political class in general and the Republican one in particular to quit shilling for the capital, ownership and rentier class, the very group of people who don’t need help, and instead, to start implementing policies equitable to labor and production.

Statewide Democrats might be spiking the football this morning, but this was a lesson for them and pointed at them as much as it was anything else.  That party has its own capital vs labor problems, the gentry corporatist neoliberals versus the street level true believers, those politics also showed up in last night’s results here in St. Louis, as you can read in my other posts of today.  And, just as much, Democrat true believer voters wish their own party’s establishment would quit shilling for the capital class, even though the fact that it does is opaquely concealed by the fact that on the organizational and activist level, unions still equal Democrats.

That and I don’t think that Prop A’s result last night has that much relevance to modern day current year conventional two party politics;   To put it another way, however the midterms turn out in St. Louis, Missouri and nationally, that will happen in a lane totally separate from Prop A’s lane.  It’s similar to minimum wage, (and such as it is, I also think that minimum wage is just as economically irrelevant as is open-vs-closed shop in the labor market), we have many situations where the same electorate votes for minimum wage increases bigly and Republicans bigly at the same time, and the fact that Republican politicians are hostile to the concept of a minimum wage does not preclude the bidirectional political contradiction.  There’s a difference between an issue being popular or unpopular on the one hand, and a serious needle-mover on the other.

But, as for me, I’m way more interested in an election coming up on October 14.

Note: I am not clear whether Prop A’s defeat totally negates the state legislature’s newly enacted change from closed shop to open shop and therefore takes Missouri back to close shop on its own, or whether it merely means that open shop as state policy will not be hard wired into the state constitution. I get conflicting answers in my credible research and questioning.





The Lessons of Wesley Bell and Bob McCullough

8 08 2018

Clayton

The biggest political shock around here in a long time, maybe the biggest of my conscious lifetime.

St. Louis County is about to have a Kim Gardner type as Prosecuting Attorney, which means he will do much more attorneying than prosecuting.

To beat all, Wesley Bell is currently an alderman in Ferguson.

I don’t think what happened last night was any more complicated than the fact that McCullough rested on his laurels and thought he’d be in as long as he wanted because he was in for so long.

Bell probably had a really big energetic army of leg work foot soldiers behind him, and I bet he probably also got Soros money, just like Kim Gardner did.

You wonder why all these gadflies and nobodies and people who otherwise have no hope bother running?  Because, sometimes, lightning strikes.  The long time incumbent gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy — That happens, every once in awhile.

It came as close as it has ever to striking last night in MO-1-D, see one of my other posts today, and it did strike last night in this race.

And St. Louis County is about to be all the worse off for it.

Then again, less than a month from now, St. Louis, City or County, won’t be my problem, either for quite some time, or ever again.





The Lessons of Cori Bush

8 08 2018

St. Louis City and North County

Life has a funny way of trolling you.

This morning, the king and queen of the secret rehab hideout had to make a quick run to the grocery store, and in spite of the fact that my going along with them makes the chore more difficult, they wanted me to go with them, just to get out of the house for a short while.  Even though, after Labor Day, I’ll be getting out of their house for a very long while, but I digress.

When I was in the store, one of the songs the store’s intercom played was “Jenny from the Block” by J-Lo.  I jokingly refer to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as “Jenny from the Block,” and I heard it on the day after a local election took place that had her as a subtext.

It was MO-1-D.  Lazy Clay, the 18-year incumbent, who followed his 32-year tenure father in the same district, this year got a Democrat Primary challenge from a black woman named Cori Bush.  She had the endorsement of Jenny from the Block, and she even came to town to speak and rally on her behalf.

I thought Bush had no hope.

And as it predictably turned out, Clay won.

But Bush made it surprisingly close, relative to what Clay is used to winning his own party’s primary for re-election against the usual dorks, dweebs, trolls, gadflies and nobodies.

Turns out Cori Bush really did make a credible and respectable run, and that Jenny from the Block is wielding a rather heavy stick in Democrat Party politics these days.

In the district as a whole, it was Clay 57%, Bush 37%.  But here’s the interesting breakdown:  Bush had a a better result in St. Louis City (all of which is in MO-1), Clay 51% Bush 43%, than she did in the parts of St. Louis County that are in MO-1, Clay 60% Bush 33%.

There several lessons to this that daisy chain together, and prove several of my long standing operating political theories:

(1) The local black political romanticism over the Clay surname is starting to fade.

(2) That Bush did better in the City than the County proves that the black political racial parochialism now tends to North County rather than the City.  When Virvus Jones’s daughter made it razor thin close against Lyda Krewson in Mayor-D in March 2017, mainly because doctrinaire progressives and also the city’s organized activist LGBTQ-BLT-BBQ-LOL wing tended to Jones’s way, I wrote here in reaction that St. Louis City politics had stopped being a purely racial headcount as they were in, say, the 1981-1993 time frame, and have turned into a contest between the neoliberal money power and doctrinaire true believer street progressives, which correlates to race much less intensely.  Bush doing that well in the city also points to the validity of my theory.

(3) I’ve written here often in the past six years that as, older black women start moving on to the next world, the way of all flesh, they will be dying off as the final generation of black people and black voters that have any conscious memory of the civil rights movement and what it was like before it.  Obama could goose them out to the voting booth in 2012 in record turnout rates for their demographic that will never be seen again (hint hint) and already started to fall in 2016, because his campaign and their allied talking heads were able to fill their heads with noise about voter disenfranchisement, the water hoses, the police dogs, Bull Connor.  Once they’re all gone, there will be no black voters around that have any conscious memory of those eras, they were either too young or were not yet born.  Such voters will break more ideologically than purely racially.  Generationally and applied to the society at large, it will be the equivalent of and happen contemporaneously with Baby Boomers aging out of power and control and of life itself, and handing off to Generation X, a handoff which I have predicted here will be rough and rocky and may surprise us in some very good ways in our opinion.  Anyway, I take last night’s result of Clay vs Bush as a leading indicator that all this is starting to happen.

(4) White voters in the city who voted in MO-1-D yesterday I bet broke heavily for Bush, because of the doctrinaire progressive thing.





Last Waltz

8 08 2018

Your Blogmeister’s Secret Hideout

Something just occurred to me last night.

This is my last election day and election night from St. Louis, maybe for awhile, maybe ever.

The next election day for the territory in which I am currently registered to vote, if I want to vote at all, and I didn’t yesterday because there was nothing that mattered to me, I’ll have to vote absentee.

A few analysis posts from the events of last night will follow this one.





Easy Street

2 08 2018

Your Blogmeister’s Secret Hideout

Most prosecuting attorney / circuit attorney offices in Missouri are up for election this year.

And as I watch and listen to the media buys, I wonder if there must actually be a huge powerful pro child molestation lobby out there, such that candidates for prosecutor simply must remind us that they are or have been or want to be tough on child molesters.

Really, we know the answer: There are no political consequences to being vociferously and forcefully against child molestation. Safe and easy politics.

Wouldn’t want to suggest that you would want to use your power as a prosecutor in ways that will get you in hot water with the media, BLM, ADL, SPLC, NAACP, CAIR, Antifa.





Don’t Be Fooled By the Rocks That She’s Got

18 07 2018

Queens, N.Y.C, N.Y.

On the matter of NY-14-D and the defeat of Joe Crowley at the hands of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (“Jenny from the Block”) (let’s see who groks that cultural reference, the race to the gold star starts now), you have to remember why I used to get paid the big bucks:  Because I dug deep into paradoxes and contradictions, margins and differentials, to find the moral of the story or the lesson of a thing before anyone else.  With that experience in mind, I implore you to resist the temptation to think that Jenny from the Block beat Crowley purely because of the demographic matter.  Sure, I think that was a factor, and I think that affected the factors that were the ultimate needle-movers, but demographics didn’t move the needle and didn’t change the outcome by themselves.  NY-14, while plurality Latino, isn’t even majority Latino, and Latinos aren’t known for great political involvement.  I’ll get to that in a moment.

Here’s what I think really moved the needle and affected the binary outcome, these two things:

One, the left’s internecine up-versus-down or establishment-vs-populist schism.  His voters were mostly white and mostly establishment types or their lackeys.  Her voters were a multiracial coalition of true believers.

Two, taboo issues that are representative of the left’s own internal schism.  Remember my analysis of Dianne Feinstein vs Kevin De Leon? (*) I told you there, and it applies in NY-14-D, that military-industrial complex and Israel were factors, even though it is impermissible in polite political society to talk about the latter.  Jenny from the Block in NY-14-D, just like Kevin’s Underground Rave in CA-Jungle, was smart enough not to come out against the MIC and Israel in public, but was clever enough to have underground subordinates do that on her behalf and behind one or more layers of plausible deniability.  Though the late breaking news in the last several days is that Jenny from the Block is starting to get more comfortable in being public with her anti-Israel sentiments.  Whether it’s Kevin’s Underground Rave or DiFi in the Senate from California, or Joe Crowley or Jenny from the Block in the House from NY-14, they would vote alike close to 100% of the time in the Senate or House.  So when it comes to Democrat-left internecine politics that are so obviously contentious and divisive in public view, I infer that taboo issues are the underground heat and energy source.

To beat all, Jenny from the Block isn’t even from the block, she’s from well to do Westchester parents.

Local tie in: Jenny from the Block has openly endorsed one Cori Bush in her no-chance no-hope primary run against Lazy Clay in MO-1.

(*) – Great Hispanic voter tidal wave, huh?  Kevin’s Underground Rave had a very disappointing result in the jungle primary, even though he did finish in second place and made the runoff.  You may have been reading a lot of news lately about how he’s racking up endorsements instead of her from this party activist group or that interest group, but those aren’t the actual voters.  In reality, DiFi is leading Kevin’s Underground Rave by 2-1 in the polls, and she’ll probably win in November in the runoff by more than that.  Remember, ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1  Which is one of the reasons why I look sideways at this whole MUH DEMOGRAPHICS conventional wisdom to explain Jenny from the Block.